Turnout
Posted on Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 09:33:12 AM EST
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It appears that the McCain campaign's argument this week for why it still has a chance is that turnout will be like 2004. There would have been a time where I might have bought into this type of thinking as a possibility. But after watching the record turnout in state afte state during the Democratic primaries, knowing that McCain is hardly someone who enthuses the conservative base and understanding the conditions in the country, I just do not see it. Andrew Kohut, whose Pew poll is spitting out some outrageous numbers, is however, correct when he says:
[T]he poll shows that roughly 12 percent of the electorate this year is black, up from 2004, with a similar increase among younger voters. Kohut defended this approach, saying there are historically high levels of interest in this contest among both demographic groups. At the same time, he added, "we've consistently shown less enthusiasm and engagement among Republicans than is typical, and the composition of the electorate shows that."
In any event, the WaPo pollsters, who show Obama with a 7 point lead, are not even using an expanded turnout projection:
Some polls show Obama with a healthy lead even without an assumed surge in African American and young voters. Obama's seven-point lead in the Washington Post-ABC News poll is not premised on disproportionately higher turnout among those demographic groups. The poll's turnout model currently shows that 10 percent of likely voters are black, compared with the 11 percent who voted in 2004, according to the network exit poll. Voters younger than 30 make up 16 percent of the Post-ABC sample, little different from the 17 percent four years ago.
Post polling director Jon Cohen said the survey designers "carefully consider a range of likely voter scenarios and use our best judgment. Our polling throughout the campaign has been on target and, we believe, helpful to understanding what is really happening. I hope it stays that way."
I've said it before - the WaPo pollster Gary Langer has proven to me he is the best in the business. From 2004, when ABC nailed the presidential election (I railed against the poll at the time because I thought it had too many undecideds breaking to Bush, they were right and we who complained were wrong), to the 2006 congressional elections to this years presidential primaries, they have been, as the WaPo pollster Jon Cohen says, on target.
I think they are wrong on the turnout but I must admit they have a great track record.
By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only
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