Political Demography: North Carolina

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:05:03 AM EST
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PPP's NC poll has Obama leading by 1, 49-48. Obama could win this one in a squeaker. PPP's demographic results are fairly conservative. McCain leads among whites 60-36 (with whites comprising 76% of the vote) and Obama leading among African Americans 92-6 (comprising 21% of the vote). Obama leads among "Other" (comprising 3% of the vote), 67-25. There is some controversy about the size of the A-A turnout and the accuracy of exit polling in 2004. Since North Carolina is a state subject to the Voting Rights Act, it provides actual numbers by race. That said, African American turnout in the primary easily exceeded pollster's expectations of 20% of the total vote. In fact it was 33% of the vote in the Dem NC primary.

Obama can, indeed maybe, should, win in North Carolina.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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Political Demography: North Carolina | 16 comments (16 topical)

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Obama will win (5.00 / 1) (#9)
by bluegal on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:31:43 AM EST

probably 51-49. That's just my guess. Have you seen the early voting numbers? Just amazing.

NC is where (5.00 / 3) (#11)
by sarany on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:43:34 AM EST

I've been sending letters to undecided women (coordinated by our local Obama org.).

I've sent around 45 and will try to do 20 - 30 more for tomorrow's mail.

Interestingly, (none / 0) (#1)
by andgarden on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:10:49 AM EST

SUSA said that blacks would be 32% of the Dem primary vote in NC. They just underestimated his margin with them.

I have a friend who's working for Obama in some capacity in NC, for what it's worth.

I read in the NYT (none / 0) (#2)
by lilburro on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:12:16 AM EST

there are 17,000 volunteers in the entire state. GOTV seems to be going well in my county based on my canvassing experience. Over a million people have already voted early. Going big with the AA turnout is a safe bet.

Based on your canvassing, (none / 0) (#3)
by oculus on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:14:03 AM EST

have you encountered African Americans who state they are voting for McCain?


Not a one. (5.00 / 2) (#5)
by lilburro on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:20:00 AM EST

I have only been canvassing for 4 weekends though. What I have found so far is that many African Americans are getting to the polls extremely early. We have been going out to make sure everyone knows about early voting, but I find esp. with AA families that they've already been. Which is great!

The % of AAs who vote for McCain will be extremely low. I would think that would be especially true in the south.


: Thanks. (none / 0) (#6)
by oculus on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:22:14 AM EST

I actually visited a church this past Sunday (none / 0) (#8)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:25:42 AM EST

with a black republican pastor. I think the name of the church is Victory something. Anyway, I wasn't aware of his politics and I won't be back. He tied the abortion and homosexual marriage issue in with the upcoming election. He used all the buzzwords without being explicit but everyone understood. "The economy is a distraction." He said. It was kind of amusing because it also seemed he wasn't high on Palin because she was a woman, but was clearly advocating for Sen. McCain.


: I've talked to a few A-A's in NC (5.00 / 1) (#13)
by Howard Zinn on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 12:33:10 PM EST

who say that their families would never vote Democrat, no matter what.

One thing I noticed (none / 0) (#4)
by CaptainAmerica08 on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:15:44 AM EST

about Charlotte, NC is that the New Money and Old Money upper class whites have shown surprising support for Obama, I'd say 50-50 or a little less. It surprised me because I believe they aren't liberal, but I could be wrong. Obama's AA support should put Hagan and Purdue (Gov) over the top, since the new "divided government" argument seems to have made a small impact among whites last week.

How is Dole doing? (none / 0) (#7)
by ThatOneVoter on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:25:30 AM EST

The state of that race will affect Republican turnout, no?

Dole is down by a few points. (5.00 / 1) (#10)
by lilburro on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:31:44 AM EST

I'm sure she has her people working on GOTV. But there seems to be a general consensus that she sucks (she is very low rated in terms of effectiveness in Congress) and she is basically the opposite of inspiring. Not like that's stopped Republicans before.

I think she'll probably lose.


Well, if she's down several points, (none / 0) (#12)
by ThatOneVoter on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 11:58:42 AM EST

then GOP turnout will be lower, right?
I'm sure Republicans have given up on McCain, for the most part.


: Let's hope so. (5.00 / 0) (#14)
by Amiss on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 01:34:09 PM EST

At least the infighting helps divide and distract them as they have done to Dems so many times in the past.

My stubborn predictions (none / 0) (#15)
by DancingOpossum on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 03:28:24 PM EST

Obama wins the GE but he doesn't win VA or NC. Yes, I'll check back on Nov. 5 and if I'm wrong you can all laugh at me. But I expect I will have the last laugh where these two states are concerned.

Obama will win VA but not NC ... (none / 0) (#16)
by Robot Porter on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 03:58:07 PM EST

my prediction: McCain wins NC by slightly under 3%.