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Ohio Exit Polls

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:33:13 PM EST
Tags: Ohio '08 (all tags)
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CNN's Ohio exit polls:

Hillary is getting voters without college degrees. College educated voters are going to Obama. That's all they reported so far.

CNN's Ohio results page is here.
MSNBC's Ohio results page is here.

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    Ohio Exit Polls | 68 comments (68 topical)

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    Nothing new in that (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:39:25 PM EST


    But Ohio is low in college-educated (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:45:14 PM EST
    (as is my state) compared to the rest of the country. So it says something . . . although, again, not much without knowing their turnout.

    Parent
    Strange that I haven't seen (none / 0) (#9)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:50:07 PM EST
    any talking head pointing that fact out.  I hadn't even thought about it myself and though I have many well educated friends in Texas, Texas is not known for its pursuit of higher education.

    Parent
    Texas is a couple of points higher (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:00:06 PM EST
    at more than 23% of the population with college degrees or more, just under the U.S. norm at 24.4%. Ohio is low at 21%. For purposes of comparison with a recent primary, Wisconsin is in between at a bit over 22%. And no, talking heads and media often don't want to deal with these states -- as education is the key predictor of income, and we don't have a socio-economic class system in this country, do we? :-)

    Parent
    Why, why, why do college-educ. (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:39:36 PM EST
    voters vote for Obama and those w/o college degrees vote for Obama?  Can't wait for the post-election books analyzing all this.  

    Correction: non-college educ. (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:43:19 PM EST
    vote for HRC.

    Parent
    Wish I could understand that dynamic too (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:44:05 PM EST
    because I just don't get it either.

    Parent
    Definition of 'Intellectual' (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by blogtopus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:07:44 PM EST
    I think it was Clarke who said it, or Asimov: "An intellectual is someone who has been educated beyond their mental capacity."

    JK I don't understand what it is about the willful ignorance that goes with the really smart Obama supporters. Is Hope (TM) really that cloying? Or is this just another variation on the Shock Doctrine?

    Parent

    Love the Clarke quote ... (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:09:21 PM EST
    I feel that way sometimes.

    But I think my mom just said:  "Too smart for your own good."

    Parent

    really incredible (none / 0) (#30)
    by A DC Wonk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:12:27 PM EST
    so now we're on some sort of anti-intellectual thread?  I'd expect that of a RW GOP blog.

    Parent
    Yep, and I've detected a high level (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:18:56 PM EST
    of highly educated folks here -- Ph.D.'s, J.D.'s, etc. Some of us really did find that, the more we went to school, the more we had to learn. But hubris and humilitas can only be learned, and some here may not have completed that course yet.

    Parent
    Everybody has at least been to law (none / 0) (#55)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:31:45 PM EST
    school around here except me.  I have a scummy business degree.

    Parent
    Intellectual definition (none / 0) (#37)
    by blogtopus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:17:49 PM EST
    I think we're talking about two different things. RW sites despise education in general, because it is usually harder to bamboozle those people.

    Of course, that was before people like GWB managed to convince a whole swath of otherwise smart people to vote for him. I think Karl Rove probably remembers lesson #1 of a good con artist: Let the mark convince themselves that they are smart to play along.

    It's the emperor's new clothes all over again. If you don't like Obama, then you must be one of those un-smart people.

    Ok, that's too strong too. But we aren't complaining about educated people in general. Just those folks who don't really follow the a + b = c reasoning that we expect them to.

    Parent

    Exactly -- I called it, in an earlier post (none / 0) (#60)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:47:07 PM EST
    possibly the difference between abstract thinkers ("hope," "change") and, as you say, more linear thinkers (how do I get from this economic situation to that one, how do we fix NAfTA, how do we get from this system of health care to that one, etc.). More advanced education encourages/inculcates abstract thinking, which can be just what is needed in some cases. But not all.

    Parent
    Nah, we're just tired of fighting (none / 0) (#48)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:24:53 PM EST
    we want to unite all of America and not have us and them, and the intellectuals and the stupids, and the elites and the stupids, and the lotus blossoms and the foliage ;)  We have hope in this thread and we have a dream for this great country ;)

    Parent
    willful ignorance? (none / 0) (#29)
    by A DC Wonk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:11:27 PM EST
    I don't understand what it is about the willful ignorance that goes with the really smart Obama supporters.

    C'mon . . . is that kind of comment conducive to productive discussion at all?

    Is Sen Feingold (to take just one example) common to "willful ignorance"?

    Parent

    Granted (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by blogtopus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:14:06 PM EST
    I appreciate thinkers who support Obama; I know they are smart people. I just can't see their reasoning for supporting him, and when I ask them about it, they either can't name an exact policy or action he did (aside from the speech or his books) that supports their views, or they get snippy and defensive.

    If I've offended you, I apologize, that was perhaps too strong. But I can't see the logic in it.

    Parent

    I'd be happy to have (none / 0) (#44)
    by A DC Wonk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:23:12 PM EST
    an offline discussion about it with you.

    Seriously.

    Not to try to convince you to change your preference.  But to convince you that thoughtful smart people on both sides of this have reasonable and defensible positions.

    Parent

    Have You Read BTD (none / 0) (#49)
    by squeaky on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:26:18 PM EST
    I just can't see their reasoning for supporting him....

    Reasoning for supporting BHO is quite clear and rather convincing.

    Parent

    Edit (none / 0) (#50)
    by squeaky on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:27:10 PM EST
    His Reasoning is quite clear....

    Parent
    It's very simple (5.00 / 1) (#53)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:29:43 PM EST
    As Bill Clinton said, Obama does very well among the people who don't really need a President.

    Those who are doing a little better in life and will be fine no matter who gets elected are more likely to take a chance on Obama's message of hope.

    Those who are struggling to get by are more likely to be drawn to Hillary's message of practical solutions.  They're looking for help, they're not looking to become part of a "movement."

    It has nothing to do with educated people being "smarter" and making better decisions, or worse decisions for that matter.  Different people are just looking to achieve different things with this election.

    Parent

    movements can change many lives (none / 0) (#56)
    by A DC Wonk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:35:05 PM EST
    I'm not saying Obama is a movement or not, but movements do end up touching lots of lives, ending up with practical solutions, and movements often start with the educated class.  My understanding (based on an article that I can't find right now) is that the Abolitionist movement in the North (as well as, 100 years later, white support for ending Jim Crow) started with the educated class.  Ditto for Women's Suffrage.  And etc.

    Parent
    Well (5.00 / 1) (#57)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:39:20 PM EST
    I'm just talking about what motivates people.  The more day-to-day someone's life is, the less likely they are to be interested in high-minded rhetoric about changing the world.

    I am not suggesting, at all, that the latte-drinkers who support Obama do so because he will somehow be better for the price of latte.  We're all Democrats and presumably we all care about things like helping out the less fortunate.  It's just that the elite, the people who don't really need help themselves, tend to think on a more macro level about how to help those people.  It doesn't mean they have the wrong approach.

    By the way, I'm a well-educated latte-drinker myself, so I intend all these terms as descriptive rather than perjorative.

    Parent

    Exactly! (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:46:52 PM EST
    You have to "put food on your family" (to quote our illustrious current leader) first before you can dream of bigger things.

    Parent
    Thanks for clarifying (none / 0) (#58)
    by A DC Wonk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:43:25 PM EST
    What you said makes sense.

    (I was just getting surprised at above when as soon as someone mentioned that college educated folks were tending towards Obama, that the thread took a decidedly anti-intellectual turn -- which, given that this is not a RW GOP place, and given the estimated demographics of the readers here, was quite surprising).

    Parent

    Thanks for telling me... (none / 0) (#62)
    by sar75 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:50:51 PM EST
    ...that I don't need a president.

    I've said it more than once on this board.  I respect Clinton and think she'd make a fine president.  I support Obama because I think he'll be a better one.  I will, of course, support Clinton with my time and money should she win the nomination, and would expect Clinton supporters to do the same for Obama.  People who would rather support McCain over Obama or Clinton obviously don't care about policy and the direction of the country, but only personalities.

    But I find such comments like Bill's (which you buy) to be insulting.  How dare you say that I don't need a president and don't have real interests that I'd like to see addressed? Such comments (like one I argued over last night that suggest Obama supporters are making emotional decisions -and bad ones - and not thinking rationally) cheapen the discourse.

    Parent

    Well (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:56:34 PM EST
    I didn't say that you don't need a president, I didn't say you don't have real interests, I didn't say Obama supporters are making emotional decisions, I didn't say Obama supporters are making bad decisions, and I didn't say Obama supporters aren't thinking rationally.

    I think you'd feel less insulted if you'd read what I'm saying a little more carefully.  And since I've made it clear that I'm a latte-drinking Clinton supporter myself, I'd hope it would go without saying that my comments are aimed at discussing what's taking place on the margins, not as generalizations applicable to every last supporter of a given candidate.  Clinton is winning the non-college educated voters 55-45, after all, not 100-0.

    Parent

    Based on my non-scientific survey in NH (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by BDB on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:30:01 PM EST
    I think it's that non-college educated folks tend to struggle more economically and don't particularly care about "changing Washington."  They care about jobs, healthcare, universal pre-K.  Whereas the college educated, generally better off economically, mostly have jobs, healthcare and universal pre-K and so have the luxury of worrying about "divisiveness" and "changing how Washington works."

    As a well-educated, upper income voter, I like to use the following analogy from my experience knocking on doors in trailer parks and low-income housing, which is knocking on one of these doors and promising the person that your candidate can change Washington is like knocking on my door and promising your candidate can make Mars habitable.  In the long run, what your candidate is promising might be a good thing, but it's very disconnected from my day-to-day life.  And day-to-day life is incredibly important when you're working two jobs just to pay your rent in a low rent apartment.

    Parent

    of course . . . (none / 0) (#64)
    by A DC Wonk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:06:15 PM EST
    don't particularly care about "changing Washington."  They care about jobs, healthcare, universal pre-K.

    Of course, there ain't gonna be any major healthcare changes, universal pre-K, etc., unless there is a fairly major "change in Washington".

    Parent

    On Halperin's page (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by Shawn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:44:05 PM EST
    Clinton winning those who think "NAFTA takes jobs away" 51/48.

    I saw an exit poll on MSNBC (none / 0) (#8)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:49:54 PM EST
    ..that said that something like 87% of those polled in Ohio felt that Nafta had taken away jobs. So that's almost the election right there, if it's true.

    Parent
    Yeah, the link says 81% (none / 0) (#10)
    by Shawn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:50:29 PM EST


    Parent
    with the late polls and the contrasting exit polls (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by sammiemorris on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:56:06 PM EST
    its been fun watching John Aravosis at AmericaBlog have a meltdown today. First, when late polls suggested that Hillary was surging, he unleashed a torrent of anti-Hillary posts on top of his earlier threats about rumors related to Bill. Now that the exit polls suggest more favorable results for Obama, he seems to have calmed down to referring to Senator Clinton as Hillary Huckabee.

    If anyone should be truly ashamed, it should be John Aravosis.

    While we wait (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by fuzzyone on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:00:39 PM EST
    Open left has some interesting charts of composite exit polls and late deciders.

    Fascinating to see (none / 0) (#21)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:03:55 PM EST
    how much those differ from U.S. norms in many categories -- who does and who doesn't vote.

    Parent
    Did BC also (none / 0) (#7)
    by NJDem on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:47:48 PM EST
    loose the college-educated vote?  I get why blue-collar workers support her/them, but I don't understand why more (formally) educated people don't like the person with more experience and specific plans?  

    I mean, who doubts how smart the Clinton's are?  I think it may be a classist thing, i.e. viewing the Clinton's as some type of hicks.  Plus liberal guilt.

    Eh (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by spit on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:52:33 PM EST
    anecdotally, it makes a kind of sense to me that Obama's arguments, many of which are essentially about process and governing philosophy, resonate better with the college crowd.

    Parent
    And some educated people don't like people (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by Angel on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:54:44 PM EST
    who are smarter.....

    Parent
    my theory (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by Kathy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:17:42 PM EST
    college education = more money = more time to stop and smell the hope.  It's easy to rail against the system when it won't affect your standard of living one way or another.

    Working class people are too busy trying to get by.  I'm sure someone will remember who said this in California: they don't need hope.  They need help.

    Parent

    Magnificent Maxine Waters (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by RalphB on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:22:44 PM EST


    Parent
    Exactly Right (none / 0) (#46)
    by AmyinSC on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:24:45 PM EST
    And I understand that is PRECISELY why Washington State has the popular vote as well as the caucus vote because certain populations simply did not have the time or ability (not intellectually, but health-wise, etc.) to do the whole caucus procedure.  So, given THAT, WHYT is the popular vote NOT being considered (the rules are that it can be both popular and caucus, or one or the other).  Naturally, the DNC has decided to go with caucus.  Grrr. It was very, very close, as I recall - much more so than the caucus thing (and we al know how fraught with difficulty THAT has proven to be!).

    Parent
    Heh, I know a couple of those ;) (none / 0) (#20)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:02:12 PM EST
    Is that what it is?  They've paid a fortune for this giant sheep skin and by God they are the smartest!  They may not be able to recover their education costs but you will respect them as the smartest ones and you will have a hard time finder anyone smarter, they'll make sure of that ;)

    Parent
    Just remember: Education doesn't equal (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Angel on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:04:40 PM EST
    intelligence.

    Parent
    Only debt ;) (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:06:37 PM EST


    Parent
    Um... (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by AmyinSC on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:15:53 PM EST
    As a VERY well-educated person (Master's plus additional post-grad work), I do not know who the heck they are asking - not me, that's for sure.  I know a number of PhD's, including my uncle (who lives in TX), cousin, and others, who are STAUNCH Clinton supporters, as am I.  

    To be honest, it seems like the media is trying to portray some kind of class division, which is offensive.  That is to say, why do they have such a hard time acknowledging that Clinton has a RANGE of supporters?  Oh, wait - I know - because that does not fit their narrative of OBAMA as the great UNITER.  Yeah.  Right.

    And yes, I do still have debt - mainly from grad school in NYC, though!  :-)

    Parent

    Bingo! (none / 0) (#36)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:17:45 PM EST
    Of course that's what they're doing.

    Think of the Demographics of people who cable news and you understand it better.

    Parent

    I can't type ... (none / 0) (#38)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:18:35 PM EST
    "who watch cable television" i meant

    Parent
    Because (none / 0) (#45)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:23:16 PM EST
    even a commanding lead in a demographic still means that 30-40% of people are voting the other way.

    Even Utah has liberals although you would never think that based on the narrative about red state vs blue state.

    Parent

    And honestly (none / 0) (#26)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:08:20 PM EST
    ...it takes some pretty astounding intelligence to survive when money is estraordinarily tight, you're working 3 jobs while raising kids, etc, etc.

    ...talk about creative class!  

    (yes, I come from the worker class).

    Parent

    That stat is not about intelligence (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:21:33 PM EST
    not about IQ; it's about educational level. And allow me, as an educator, point out that all it takes to get a college degree is a C average.

    Parent
    Just Ask... (none / 0) (#52)
    by AmyinSC on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:28:24 PM EST
    Dubya!!!

    Parent
    um, typo (none / 0) (#40)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:19:36 PM EST
    extraordinarily.

    Teresa
    Typo Queen Estraordinaire.

    Parent

    Well non scientifically (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Virginian on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:56:43 PM EST
    I imagine you'd find similar splits among marketing lines too; specifically trend savvy splits.

    Who buys the iphone...etc...I don't discount viral marketing, and Obama kicked off his campaign with viral marketing...I would bet my bottom dollar that the same demographic that viral marketing targets, is BOs market...starting at the college campus.

    Parent

    We haven't purchased an iphone yet (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:05:07 PM EST
    because it is still getting all the kinks ironed out and when you become a "mature" adult it is hard to get excited about getting to stand in line and pay a ton of money for something unproven and iffy.  Once again I sound just like another Hillary voter though ;)

    Parent
    It may be an inclination (none / 0) (#47)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:24:52 PM EST
    or learned tendency toward abstract thinking, as that seems more likely for voters trusting in abstractions such as hope, change, etc., vs. those deciding on specific issues such as NAFTA and health care. (Note, interestingly, some highly educated sorts are the ones who labeled less abstract thinkers as "lower-order" thinkers, when some of us -- and I have advanced degrees -- might just call them more reality-based thinkers?)

    Parent
    Oh, SURE!! (none / 0) (#51)
    by AmyinSC on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:27:31 PM EST
    And I bet you use FACTS to inform your decisions, too, don't you?!?!  :-D

    Parent
    Some Exits via Jonathan Springer MyDD (none / 0) (#13)
    by sar75 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:55:43 PM EST
    For what they're worth (not much).  Basically, deadlocked.  We might not know until tomorrow.

    Vermont: Obama 67, Clinton 33
    Ohio: Obama 51, Clinton 49
    Texas: Obama 51, Clinton 49
    Rhode Island: Clinton 49, Obama 49

    http://mydd.com/

    Those aren't looking good for Clinton (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:01:44 PM EST
    with losing Ohio. Why are his exit polls not good?

    Parent
    I have no idea... (none / 0) (#31)
    by sar75 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:13:29 PM EST
    ...although Clinton within 1 or 2 in Ohio still isn't good for her.

    But let's face it, it's going to be a long a night....

    Also, for what it's worth, Tom Brokaw said a source told him Obama has 50 supers lined up, ready to announce.  Who knows, but that would be devastating.

    Parent

    They look bad (none / 0) (#34)
    by Shawn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:17:07 PM EST
    But remember the Super Tuesday exits:

    Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45
    Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48
    New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47
    California: Clinton 50, Obama 47
    New Mexico: Obama 52, Clinton 47

    I think the demographic and internal numbers tell us they're probably a little off again.

    Parent

    Exit poll report (none / 0) (#16)
    by magster on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:59:27 PM EST
    from NRO, FWIW.

    Obama big in VT, virtual tie every where else, including RI.

    Katie Couric's big love fest with Obama tonight (none / 0) (#28)
    by Josey on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:10:18 PM EST
    included her interviewS with men in Ohio who would not vote for a woman for president.

    Read: It's perfectly acceptable to publicly admit being a misogynist, but not a racist.

    My 2 cents from Ohio (none / 0) (#41)
    by trishb on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:20:29 PM EST
    Here in SW Ohio, the weather was lousy, but not horrendous.  I'm in an incredibly Republican area, NE Hamilton County.  My town, Loveland is in 3 counties - Hamilton, Warren, and Clermont.

    The poll workers didn't seem to know the rules.  Both my roommate and I voted today and both of us were questioned on our IDs.  The addresses on the licenses didn't match the records.  I went so far as to bring the polling place notice sent by the board of election.  They offered a provisional ballot to my roomie, but he grumbled until they gave him the regular one.  They had to call over a supervisor to deal with it.

    CNN exits (none / 0) (#61)
    by MKS on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 06:48:35 PM EST
    show a 3 point win for Hillary.

    Page four of the exit polling has a question that asks if race was important: for those who said yes, the vote went for Hillary 57-43.  That is very disappointing...

    Also, a large AA turnout for Obama is keeping him close....

    Obama is ahead everywhere except NE Ohio....that doesn't make any sense--Hillary should be ahead in the south...

    my calculations are the same... (none / 0) (#65)
    by p lukasiak on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:27:09 PM EST
    occasionally, the results I get can be rounded up to a 4 point lead, but its always at least 3%.

    I don't know how confident I am in the poll thought... its 59% women (which would be the highest so far this year)... and Obama has only a 10 point lead among men (which is below his average.)

    Parent

    Women were over 60% in some state (none / 0) (#66)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:45:04 PM EST
    as I recall, maybe South Carolina.

    Parent
    you are right... (none / 0) (#67)
    by p lukasiak on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 07:55:34 PM EST
    SC was 61% women..

    I stand corrected (and you don't know how much that hurts to say that!) ;-)

    Parent

    Hey, no big thang -- I watch (none / 0) (#68)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:45:04 PM EST
    for your posts, for what you so well. I just happen to watch for that sort of state for what I do. :-)

    Parent
    Ohio Exit Polls | 68 comments (68 topical)

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