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After Super Tuesday | 239 comments (239 topical)
Say he wins (none / 0) (#11)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:01:57 AM EST
them by a net 100 delegates.

He'll lose that and more in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.

He finshes down a hundred.

Hillary will be the nominee.

[ Parent ]

Say what? (none / 0) (#22)
by Geekesque on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:11:00 AM EST
Down 33 delegates in each of those states?

What if he loses each 52-47?  That would limit his delegate losses to about 30-40 total.

[ Parent ]

Well (none / 0) (#33)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:18:24 AM EST
what if he wins? See, you do not accept my premise apparently. that he will not run close in any of those 3 states.

[ Parent ]
because it makes no sense... (none / 0) (#67)
by mike in dc on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:34:18 AM EST
...coming off two weeks of "Obama wins" headlines, since he's likely to win most of the remaining contests this month.  That, plus his financial advantages, gives him a good shot at leveraging his way to a closer finish in Texas, and maybe even a win or very close race in Ohio.  Rhode Island and Vermont will probably wind up in his pocket, too.  Every little bit helps.

We then have a few more contests before Pennsylvania, most of which he's likely to win.  And he'll still have more money than Clinton.
Again, decent shot to keep it close--40-45% is enough to limit the damage from a Clinton win.  

She still will be fortunate if she has a pledged delegate advantage at all, and then there are still several states left after Pennsylvania, including the decent-sized prize of North Carolina, which I expect Obama has a decent chance to win.  I think he'll win 2/3 of the remaining contests on the schedule, and that he'll limit her margins in Texas and Pennsylvania while winning or keeping it a little closes in Indiana and Ohio.  

What if Clinton wins Texas but loses Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont and every state between now and March 4?  I think she's done if that happens.

What's interesting to me is that I said "if Obama's even one delegate ahead after 2/5, this thing is over", and you agreed with me.  What changed?

[ Parent ]

As opposed to the 10 days of headlines (none / 0) (#102)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:47:29 AM EST
we just experienced?

Start making sense.

[ Parent ]

He continues to get favorable media... (none / 0) (#113)
by mike in dc on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:51:57 AM EST
...and she does not.  He eroded her lead enough in the big states to pull slightly ahead in pledged delegates won.  That's not insignificant.
He will do likewise, even if she wins those three states.

And you ignore the other 19 contests at peril to the credibility of the argument.  He will likely win most of them, including some decent sized states, and some of them by large margins.  

[ Parent ]

Not like the last 10 days (5.00 / 1) (#155)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:11:25 AM EST


[ Parent ]
Geek, if you think Obama is going to (none / 0) (#68)
by MarkL on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:34:28 AM EST
lose all the big states to a DEMOCRAT, then you should support Hillary, because surely he'll also lose them in the general election.

[ Parent ]

After Super Tuesday | 239 comments (239 topical)

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