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You may be right (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by Molly Bloom on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:49:53 AM EST
but I haven't seen the delegate count this AM. If its close, this will go another round. In the meantime, get ready for a rash of postings that you are anti-Obama. Again.

BTW I saw some idiot on TPM said you were "Paul Rosenberg posting as BTD." LOL!

"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"

Can someone explain to me what Obama is (none / 0) (#2)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:52:44 AM EST
going to change to give him win in Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania?

The demos tell it all.

And the fact is we probably would have known this already if Michigan and Florida were contested.

Obama would have lost just as he did in Cali, NJ and Mass.

Those 3 states told the tale of the night.

[ Parent ]

What about all the pre-Mar 4 States? (none / 0) (#7)
by andrewwm on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:58:58 AM EST
He's going to win probably 8 of the next 9 primaries. I'd say the demos of Texas point to toss-up. So a somewhat-narrow win in Ohio puts this thing probably at a slightly lean Obama heading into Pennsylvania.

Don't forget there are about ~400 delegates at stake before Mar 4th. Most of the demos/caucus nature of those sites favor possible Obama wins of +20-30 percent.

[ Parent ]

Say he wins (none / 0) (#11)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:01:57 AM EST
them by a net 100 delegates.

He'll lose that and more in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.

He finshes down a hundred.

Hillary will be the nominee.

[ Parent ]

Say what? (none / 0) (#22)
by Geekesque on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:11:00 AM EST
Down 33 delegates in each of those states?

What if he loses each 52-47?  That would limit his delegate losses to about 30-40 total.

[ Parent ]

Well (none / 0) (#33)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:18:24 AM EST
what if he wins? See, you do not accept my premise apparently. that he will not run close in any of those 3 states.

[ Parent ]
because it makes no sense... (none / 0) (#67)
by mike in dc on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:34:18 AM EST
...coming off two weeks of "Obama wins" headlines, since he's likely to win most of the remaining contests this month.  That, plus his financial advantages, gives him a good shot at leveraging his way to a closer finish in Texas, and maybe even a win or very close race in Ohio.  Rhode Island and Vermont will probably wind up in his pocket, too.  Every little bit helps.

We then have a few more contests before Pennsylvania, most of which he's likely to win.  And he'll still have more money than Clinton.
Again, decent shot to keep it close--40-45% is enough to limit the damage from a Clinton win.  

She still will be fortunate if she has a pledged delegate advantage at all, and then there are still several states left after Pennsylvania, including the decent-sized prize of North Carolina, which I expect Obama has a decent chance to win.  I think he'll win 2/3 of the remaining contests on the schedule, and that he'll limit her margins in Texas and Pennsylvania while winning or keeping it a little closes in Indiana and Ohio.  

What if Clinton wins Texas but loses Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont and every state between now and March 4?  I think she's done if that happens.

What's interesting to me is that I said "if Obama's even one delegate ahead after 2/5, this thing is over", and you agreed with me.  What changed?

[ Parent ]

As opposed to the 10 days of headlines (none / 0) (#102)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:47:29 AM EST
we just experienced?

Start making sense.

[ Parent ]

He continues to get favorable media... (none / 0) (#113)
by mike in dc on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:51:57 AM EST
...and she does not.  He eroded her lead enough in the big states to pull slightly ahead in pledged delegates won.  That's not insignificant.
He will do likewise, even if she wins those three states.

And you ignore the other 19 contests at peril to the credibility of the argument.  He will likely win most of them, including some decent sized states, and some of them by large margins.  

[ Parent ]

Not like the last 10 days (5.00 / 1) (#155)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:11:25 AM EST


[ Parent ]
Geek, if you think Obama is going to (none / 0) (#68)
by MarkL on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:34:28 AM EST
lose all the big states to a DEMOCRAT, then you should support Hillary, because surely he'll also lose them in the general election.

[ Parent ]
Engage in much more intensive campaigning. (none / 0) (#15)
by Geekesque on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:04:17 AM EST
15,000 person rallies only deliver so much.  He will also have to adjust his messaging--one mistake he made was having about one week of public outreach to Latino voters.

Those contests are month away.  Iowa was a month ago.  LOTS can happen in a month.  

[ Parent ]

Well (none / 0) (#32)
by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:17:36 AM EST
I think you are looking for something that I do not think can happen. But time will tell.

[ Parent ]
Anything can happen, especially in politics. (none / 0) (#51)
by Angel on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:27:24 AM EST
I agree that Penn, Ohio & Texas are good states for HRC.  Don't know what the split will be.  But as I said, anything can happen.  I'm hoping that the press will start scrutinizing BO's record.  So far, IMO, this has been nothing but media hype.  Like Steve Clemons said, he's like a rock star right now.  When does the balloon burst?  I say only after people really look at his record.

[ Parent ]
Heh (none / 0) (#45)
by Steve M on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 09:24:23 AM EST
Your argument kinda sounds like "we weren't able to overcome Hillary's affinity with the Latino community in one week - so let's take 2 or 3 weeks!"    She's spent years on that and I don't think he will be getting anywhere.  All that free publicity on Piolin's radio show didn't help him in CA.

I'm not on board with BTD's theory altogether and I think Obama can run close in Ohio.  But TX and PA will remain very unfavorable for him.  Personally, I think we still have a race.

[ Parent ]

Neither high nor low (5.00 / 1) (#239)
by Camorrista on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 11:22:34 AM EST
Though I enjoy BTD's contrarianism, I don't think he quite makes his case. On the other hand, here, as Al Gore might say, are some inconvenient truths:

Though the Obama camp is bragging of his gains among Latinos, this boast should be taken with a grain of salt: in Arizona and California, the two primary states with large Latino populations, Clinton won easily.  Obama won Colorado and New Mexico, which were caucus states--with unrecorded Latino participation in those caucuses.

In fact, all in all, it would be safe to say that except for Illinois (his home state) and Georgia and Alabama (states with large African-American populations), Obama won by serious margins only in caucus states.  

His two primary state victories were squeakers--Connecticut by 3.5 per cent, Missouri by 1 percent.  In the other primary states, Clinton beat him handily.  

And, yes, I do realize that Clinton didn't beat him as handily as the polls anticipated a few weeks ago, but isn't it time to put that poor overused cudgel back in its holster?  (I've actually seen messages on other sites loudly arguing Obama actually won California because he only lost by 10 points while a month ago, he was behind by 20 points.)

No doubt Obama had a good night, but by any realistic standard, so did Clinton.  The actual result both in delegates and popular votes was a draw, which even cable-TV anchors--not a group known for antagonism towards Obama--were willing to acknowledge.  

Yes, Obama did better than his expectations of a few weeks ago, and, yes, Clinton did worse.  So what?  Did anybody with a grain of sense truly believe that a young, charismatic candidate with a huge bankroll wouldn't eventually catch up to the woman people love to hate?  Now we have a tie.  The question is what's next.

Obviously caucus states have the same weight as primary states in the delegate count--that's why the count is so close.  But what yesterday indicated was that Obama--momentum or not, cash advantage or not--can win a primary in a high-population state only with the near-total support of African-American voters.  Missouri was a victory for him, but a victory with a sting in its tail.

This isn't to say he can't expand his voter pool, or that Clinton doesn't have dangerous obstacles of her own, but it's a bit premature for Obama admirers to start secretly dreaming of invitations to the inaugural.

[ Parent ]

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