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Partial Iowa Caucus Results Announced

Approximately 2/3 (62%) of the Iowa Results were just released:

Poular vote

  • Sanders first place 28,200, 190 more than
  • Pete B. with 27, 030
  • Elizabeth, Biden, Klobuchar, Yang next

Percentage of state delegates among these 62% (41 total):

  • Pete, 26.9
  • Sanders, 25.1
  • Warren 18.3
  • Biden, 15.6
  • Klobuchar 12.6

It looks to me that Biden lost 2,000 popular votes from the first to second round because he didn't hit the 15% threshold, and those 2,000 votes went to the other candidates. Andrew Yang got 5,750 votes in the first round and 4,636 of those votes went to the other candidates.

Summary: Biden is the biggest loser in these first results. [More...]

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Des Moines Debate: Six to Compete

The Democrats will debate tonight. You can watch at CNN. Those who will be on the stage:

Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Pete Buttigieg
Amy Klobuchar
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren
Tom Steyer

Who will glow and who will fade?
Will Bernie and Elizabeth make up?
Will Pete aim his fire at Biden?
Why are Amy and Steyer still here?

I'm glad Wolf Blitzer is moderating. [More...]

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Julian Castro Endorses Elizabeth Warren

Julian Castro, who suspended his campaign for President last week, today announced via video he will endorse Elizabeth Warren.

There's one candidate I see who's unafraid to fight like hell to make sure America's promise will be there for everyone... That's why I'm proud to endorse Elizabeth Warren for President."

Castro will campaign with Warren this week in Brooklyn.

So, will we see a Warren-Castro ticket?

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Democratic Debate: The Dems' Most Important Duty

The Democrats had another debate tonight. I'm watching the re-run now. I wonder, after the thrill yesterday of watching the news chirons and papers scream"Impeached", how much interest is there in a Democratic debate -- especially when none of the frontronners have any control over the most immediate and important duty at hand: Removing Trump from office.

My thoughts in advance of watching this debate: Neither Biden nor Bernie will be the nominee. The public has had enough of septugenarian white men. Warren and Pete B. are real possibilities.

Your thoughts on the debate?

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Pete Buttigieg Surges in Latest Iowa Poll

Politico and USA Today have stories on the latest Iowa poll which has Pete Buttigieg now in third place:

A new Iowa survey of the 2020 Democratic presidential contest shows Pete Buttigieg surging in the first-in-the-nation caucus state, locked in a three-way race with frontrunners Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren.

The current standings:

  • Biden: 18%
  • Warren 17%
  • Buttigieg 13%


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Bernie and the Fever

First, my best wishes to Bernie Sanders for a full and speedy recovery from his heart attack.

I don't think he will drop out of the race yet. He's got The Fever. He's a man on a mission. His life would lose meaning without his ability to take the stage and like John Reed (Warren Beatty) in Reds, spread his gospel to young voters.

Bernie, in my view, isn't really running for President, He knew that passed him by when Hillary got the nomination in 2016. This time around, he's trying to change the mindset of voters on the issues. He wants to be heard. He knows this will be his legacy -- the pied piper of a movement that won't succeed until way after he's gone, but when it does, he wants to be remembered as someone who was in the forefront, ahead of his time.


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Democrats Debate in Houston

Update: Here is the transcript.

The third Democratic debate will take place tonight in Houston. CNN says this is what to watch for.

CNN pints out the three leading Democratic candidates are over 70 years old? So is Donald Trump.

If the choices are really down to Biden, Sanders and Warren, I'd recommend Elizabeth Warren. I think she does have a chance of beating Trump because he is so offensive to so many women. I think only wealthy Republican women and underinformed rural women will vote for Trump.

I'd be okay with an Elizabeth Warren-Julian Castro ticket. I might even get excited about it.

Who would you like to see with the nomination at this point? Here's a place for your thoughts on tonight's debate and the 2020 election.

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Detroit Debates: Night One

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are both debating tonight in Detroit. Will they take on each other or go after Biden/Harris or tackle Donald Trump?

Also participating: former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Beto O’Rourke, Marianne Williamson, Tim Ryan, John Delaney, and a new face, Montana Governor Steve Bullock. Here are their podium positions, which is determined by polling status.

The debate will start at 8 p.m. ET on CNN. Politico has this guide to tonight's debate.

If you want the Cliff Notes version, CNN has this guide of where each of them stand on the issues. [More...]

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Castro Calls Trump's Electon Strategy "Racial Priming"

Former Housing Secretary and Democratic Presidential contender Julian Castro said today on Face the Nation (transcript with auto-play video):

There is a pattern here. This guy is the biggest identity politician that we have seen in the last 50 years and he engages in what's known as racial priming. Basically using this language and taking actions to try and get people to move into their camps by racial and ethnic identity. That's how he thinks he won in 2016 and that's how he thinks he's going to win in 2020.

On Trump's comments about Elijah Cumminhgs and Baltimore, Castro said:

I absolutely think it's important for us to call it out for what it is, which is racism.

He cited multiple instances of Trump's use of racially charged comments since he began his campaign in 2016 and said despite his hesitancy to use the word "racist", that is what Donald Trump is: [More...]

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Kamala Harris' Non-Progressive Past

Don't be taken in by the accolades Kamala Harris is getting for her torching of Joe Biden at the debate. Her record as a prosecutor was not progressive. She was on the wrong side of several issues.

Here's my post from January summing it up. Here's an oped in the New York Times this January by Laura Bazeleon, a law professor and former director Innocence Project at Loyala Univ. in L.A. And here is The Two Faces of Kamala Harris in Jacobin Magazine from 2017.

I'll leave the last word for now to my good friend, colleague and exceptional criminal defense attorney Lisa Wayne, who wrote on her Facebook page after the debate:

When you are drinking the kool-Aid this morning remember. Yes, many prosecutors run for office and can be good. Just remember when you are a prosecutor, no matter who the hell you are, you are aligning yourself with a biased and unjust system. She did for many many years. She had the opportunity to fix it and did nothing as the AG. You be the judge.

This is not to say I wouldn't vote for her if she got the nomination. The only Democrat right now I would not vote for is Joe Biden -- not for his stance on busing, but for his horrible 25 year record on criminal justice. He was a one-man crime band.

His plans have long roots. He should never be forgiven for the 1994 Crime Bill and AEDPA. [More...]

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Democrats Debate: Night Two Live Thread

Night One of the Democrats' first debate drew in 15.3 million viewers on NBC, MSBNC and Telemundo. Another 9 million watched on the internet.

What will tonight bring? I don't have high expectations, but I'm hoping former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper makes a positive impression. These are the candidates debating tonight.

I don't think either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders should be President. They are just too old and Joe Biden has a horrible record on criminal justice. He also talks too much about himself and his family. Too bad there's no live band for the debate. I'd have them play the first few lines of "You're So Vain" every time someone asks Biden or Bernie a question.

Please share your thoughts as you watch or afterwards. I'll update later with my impressions. [More...]

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Democratic Debate: Live Thread

Elizabeth Warren got the first question on the economy. Her answer sounded like she's given it a million times.

Amy Klobuchar on student debt. Good speaking voice. Mentions Donald Trump.
Beto O'Rourke: Economy question, shows off his Spanish. Won't commit to a 70% tax rate.

Booker: Role of corporations like Amazon and the economy. Introduces race in his answer.

Back to Warren on the monopolisitic corporations

Julian Castro: women and wages. His mother was single and raised him and his brother. He would pass the Equal Rights Amendment and an equal pay law. [More...]

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Pre-Democrat Debate Thread

Night one of the two night debate among the numerous candidates vying for the Democrats' Presidential nomination and chance to beat Donald Trump is tonight.

Have any of you picked a candidate yet? I have not. Out of those debating tonight, I think Elizabeth Warren has the best overall policies and provides the strongest contrast to Donald Trump.
Does that mean she can beat him? If the election were held today, maybe not. But I think it depends on the disgust factor with Trump next November. If it is as high as I expect it to be, and he doesn't appreciably increase his under-informed base, I think any Democrat will beat him, even in the swing states. [More...]

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Tough Town Hall Rattles Pete Buttigieg

In the wake of a police shooting of a citizen last week, and then a bar shooting last night, South Bend IN Mayor and presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg faced a really emotional and angry crowd at a town hall today.

Buttigieg answered questions at a frequently raucous and angry meeting with South Bend residents in which he was heckled, booed and screamed at by a minority of audience members. He admitted efforts to make the city’s police force more diverse had failed, “and I take responsibility for that.”

.... Buttigieg, 37, remained calm throughout the town hall meeting even as he struggled to make himself heard, shouted down by mainly black protesters, some of whom shouted “liar!” as he sought to explain how he will deal with the shooting investigation, and as he promised transparency.


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Kamala Harris Defends Her Prosecutorial Record

Kamala Harris will speak in South Carolina tonight, focusing on a defense of her prosecutorial record.

“She will bust myths that claim the black community doesn’t want any type of law enforcement or that say being a prosecutor and being progressive are mutually exclusive,” the aide said. “Just as she prosecuted cases against those trying to harm the people, she will lay out the case against Trump — what she will call 'the case for a new president.’”

Kamala Harris can't run from her record, which is anything but progressive.

Time after time, when progressives urged her to embrace criminal justice reforms as a district attorney and then the state’s attorney general, Ms. Harris opposed them or stayed silent. Most troubling, Ms. Harris fought tooth and nail to uphold wrongful convictions that had been secured through official misconduct that included evidence tampering, false testimony and the suppression of crucial information by prosecutors.

You can't put toothpaste back in the tube. And Harris shouldn't be allowed to change the topic to Trump when her history comes up. It's apples and oranges.

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