Barack Obama is making two big decisions this week: to file a statement of candidacy for President and to quit smoking.

"I've never been a heavy smoker," Obama told the Tribune, "I've quit periodically over the last several years. I've got an ironclad demand from my wife that in the stresses of the campaign I don't succomb. I've been chewing Nicorette strenuosly."

More from the Chicago Tribune, here.

Is this a campaign stunt? To get millions of America to join him and thereby become vested in his success? Probably not, but I could see it happening.

Rudy Giuliani has taken the next step towards a presidential run.

In a sign that he's serious about running for the White House, the two-term mayor was filing a so-called "statement of candidacy" with the Federal Election Commission. In the process, he was eliminating the phrase "testing the waters" from earlier paperwork establishing his exploratory committee, said an official close to Giuliani's campaign.

Update: Kevin Drum and Atrios weigh in.

Barack Obama has been criticized often by me for lacking sufficient commitment to a politics of contrast. My view was well explained by Paul Krugman in his recent column On Partisanship:

Barack Obama recently lamented the fact that “politics has become so bitter and partisan” — which it certainly has. But he then went on to say that partisanship is why “we can’t tackle the big problems that demand solutions. And that’s what we have to change first.” Um, no. If history is any guide, what we need are political leaders willing to tackle the big problems despite bitter partisan opposition. . . . Or to put it another way: what we need now is another F.D.R., not another Dwight Eisenhower. . . .

Thus it is very encouraging to see Obama take a strong contrasting view on Iraq. And not just for the contrast, but because Iraq CAN be the key to a lasting realignment in favor of the Democrats.

Who could blame John McCain for napping during the president's State of the Union address, as a video seemed to show? It may be that the "the video brouhaha" was "short-lived and misguided ... considering that he wasn’t sleeping after all," but whether he was "simply glancing down at his copy of the speech and reading along" or catching a few winks between lackluster applause lines, a demonstrated lack of interest in the president's remarks might help McCain promote his independence from the president. Siding with the unpopular Bush hasn't helped McCain convince voters that he's a better option than a Democratic candidate in 2008.

Last July, I wrote a post titled What Obama Needs To Learn From . . . FDR. One of my main points was:

[T]hat is FDR's lesson for Obama. Politics is not a battle for the middle. It is a battle for defining the terms of the political debate. It is a battle to be able to say what is the middle. . . . FDR governed as a liberal but politicked like a populist. . . . The lesson of Hofstadter is to embrace liberal governance and understand populist politics. It may sound cynical, but you must get through the door to govern. Lincoln knew this. FDR knew this. Hofstadter knew this. I hope Obama can learn this.

Today Paul Krugman, who has discussed this issue in some detail with Brad Delong, picks up on the lessons of FDR:

Barack Obama recently lamented the fact that “politics has become so bitter and partisan” — which it certainly has. But he then went on to say that partisanship is why “we can’t tackle the big problems that demand solutions. And that’s what we have to change first.” Um, no. If history is any guide, what we need are political leaders willing to tackle the big problems despite bitter partisan opposition. . . .

Or to put it another way: what we need now is another F.D.R., not another Dwight Eisenhower. . . . I urge Mr. Obama — and everyone else who thinks that good will alone is enough to change the tone of our politics — to read the speeches of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the quintessential example of a president who tackled big problems that demanded solutions.

For the fact is that F.D.R. faced fierce opposition as he created the institutions — Social Security, unemployment insurance, more progressive taxation and beyond — that helped alleviate inequality. And he didn’t shy away from confrontation. “We had to struggle,” he declared in 1936, “with the old enemies of peace — business and financial monopoly, speculation, reckless banking, class antagonism, sectionalism, war profiteering. ... Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me — and I welcome their hatred.”

Yes, I made this point also, when Cass Sunstein made his ahistorical argument of FDR as nonpartisan. More.

Sen. John Kerry has decided not to run for President in 2008. Smart move. The field is already over-crowded.

In the latest CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, 5 percent of Democrats said Kerry was their top choice for the 2008 nomination, and a little more than half -- 51 percent -- did not want him to be the 2008 nominee.

Kerry trailed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, who led the field of Democratic preferences with 34 percent; Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, with 18 percent; his 2004 running mate, former Sen. John Edwards, who got 15 percent; and former Vice President Al Gore, the party's 2000 presidential nominee, with 10 percent.

I'm close to concluding that Hillary will be the nominee. She's going to get the big bucks from contributors. She's got a team that is honed to the 9th degree. And, she has Bill.

One of the interesting, and I think somewhat predictable developments has been the newfound "virtues" of Hillary in the Media, particularly the Gang of 500. With the fall of Bush, to an extent that even Mark Halperin has had to suck it up, Hillary actually is getting a real chance to control her political message and image. Consider this from The Note:

The Gang of 500, every cable network, talk radio host, and pajama-clad blogger is significantly more interested in all things Clinton than they are in health care tax credits, nuanced global warming positions, or Cheney-Pelosi body language. And between now and Tuesday night's 9 pm SOTU, Hillary Clinton will claim some really choice network television real estate . . . Senator Clinton has already answered many key questions about her presidential campaign, but left some very much tbd. Now known: . . . she will manage the Clinton Brand in a hands-on fashion; she is going to compete hard for the netroots; there will be no photo op left behind.

This is respectful coverage from the Beltway. Her second act will be in her hands. More.

It's official. Barack Obama has formed an exploratory commitee to run for President.

MSNBC runs down his record on the environment, the death penalty and judges, concluding he's in the center.

Update: Colorado Republican Tom Tancredo announced the formation of his Presidential exploratory committee today.

Colorado Senator Wayne Allard, a Republican, announced today he will keep his term-limits pledge made before the 2002 election and step down in 2008. He said it's a matter of integrity.

"The people of Colorado placed their trust in me based on a promise I made to them and I am honoring that promise. In an age when promises are cast away as quickly as yesterday’s newspaper, I believe a promise made should be a promise kept."

Rep. Tom Tancredo, who in the past indicated his interest in the seat, should Allard retire, has repeatedly breached a similar term-limits pledge to Colorado voters. What does that say about his integrity?

It probably doesn't matter much, as Tancredo is off to Iowa to gauge interest in Presidential run which his spokesman admits would not be launched for the intent of winning, just to raise attention to what seems to be his main purpose as a politician, kicking undocumented residents out of the U.S. Today he said he's not interested in the Senate seat.

Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, the one issue politician, is headed to Iowa to test the waters for a possible presidential run in 2008.

Tancredo, known for his outspoken criticism of illegal immigration, will meet with Iowa GOP leaders and grassroots activists to see how they would respond if he ran, Tancredo spokesman Carlos Espinosa said.

....Tancredo views the trip as vital in his decision whether to run, Espinosa said. "A lot hinges on this — this weekend will determine a lot," Espinosa said.

He's also promoting his latest book. And in case you already didn't know this, John McCain also opposes a guest worker program. Just another strike against him in my book.

Rudy Giuliani has ended his silence over Bush's proposal for a troop increase. After the speech, he announced he supports a troop increase.

"I support the president’s increase in troops," Giuliani said in a statement. "Even more importantly – I support the change in strategy – the focus on security and the emphasis on a political and economic solution as being even more important than a military solution."

They share the delusion that escalating the war in Iraq will lead to victory, so the answer might be yes to MSNBC's question: Does a McCain-Lieberman ticket make sense? That is, it makes sense to think they might join together in a last mutually desperate struggle to attain relevance.

It would be difficult to improve on Jano Cabrera's take on whether it makes sense for voters to care:

"Barring a radical turn of events in Iraq, I can't imagine 'Vote Hawk' serving as an effective rallying cry in ‘08."