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Demography Is Political Destiny

If you have been reading this site, you know that we have made the case that demography is political destiny in the Democratic Presidential contest. In every contest, Barack Obama has won 90% of the African American vote. In almost every contest, he has had trouble cracking 40% of the white working class vote, seniors and women.

Pennsylvania was no different. Obama won 89% of the African American vote. But only 38% of the white vote. He lost white women by nearly 2-1

12 million dollars in ads from Obama did not change this at all. The very real question that has been there throughout remains. Can Obama capture white working class voters critical to PA, OH, MI, etc.? North Carolina will not be where the Media pays attention to this. Indiana will be where the question is posed again. I'll explain why on the flip.

By Big Tent Democrat

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Hillary Wins PA By 10 Points, More Than 200,000 Votes

Hillary has broken the 200,000 vote margin with 93% of the Pennsylvania vote in.

Her campaign raised more than $2,500,000. since the polls closed. (Via John King on CNN, who received the information from her campaign.)

Obama's Indiana party was slow, there were empty seats.

Obama got trounced in the rural counties and by blue collar Dems and Reagan/Casey Dems, by Catholics, women, older voters, religious voters and gun owners.[More...]

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NYTimes Jumps the Gun: Does Not Wait For The Votes

The NYTimes jumped the gun:

The Pennsylvania campaign, which produced yet another inconclusive result on Tuesday, was even meaner, more vacuous, more desperate, and more filled with pandering than the mean, vacuous, desperate, pander-filled contests that preceded it.

Um, no. sorry NYTimes, the record breaking 2,000,000 Democratic voters of Pennsylvania decided to not be dictated to by you or any one else when they voted Hillary Clinton to a decisive 10 point, 200,000 vote margin victory. Stop embarrassing yourselves. It is time for the elites of this country to stop disrespecting the voters. Let the voters vote. It is their right. Respect the will of the people please.

By Big Tent Democrat

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Obama's Speech From Indiana

Barack Obama will be speaking shortly from Indiana. I will put highlights here.

Barack and Michelle are dressed in black. Mellencamp is playing. Reportedly, Mellencamp has not endorsed Obama and will be playing at an event for both candidates in a few weeks.

Obama: Thank you. He smiles. Starts with individual thank yous. Has a list. First one he thanks is Mellencamp and his wife.

More...

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Hillary's Victory Speech in Philadelphia

Update: Hillary Clinton raised $500k on her website in the first hour after the polls closed. If you want to help her, head on over to HillaryClinton.com

Hillary Clinton is about to speak at a rally in Philadelphia. I'll be live-blogging here.

Ed Rendell is warming up the crowd. Mayor Nutter is speaking. Time for the introduction.

Here she comes. She's in green. She hugs the Mayor of Philly. She's jubilant. Bill and Chelsea and her mother are there too. Bill is behind her as she begins to speak.

Hillary: Thank you very much. Oh, thank you. It's a long road to 1600 Penn. Ave and it runs right through the heart of PA. For six weeks Obama and I have criss-crossed the state making our best case. You listened and today you chose.

More...

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Pennsylvania Primary Results: Live Blog Three

Time for a third results live blog. It's below the fold and will start momentarily.

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Pennsylvania Primary Results: Live Blog Two

New live thread here. This one's closing.

Fox and NBC call Pennsylvania for Hillary Clinton.

Our first live blog is filled with comments. We're starting our second, it's below the fold so that it can be a bit wider than the front page allows. Just click on the "There's More" button or bookmark the permalink to go directly to it.

If you experience scrolling issues, toggle the scroll button at the bottom of your screen.

Comment as with any other thread, in the space below.

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Pennsylvania Primary Results: Live Blog One

Big Tent Democrat and I will live blog the election results. We'll begin when the polls close and start new threads when comments reach 200 or so.

The live blog stays below the fold so that it can be a bit wider than the front page allows. Just click on the "There's More" button or bookmark the permalink to go directly to it.

If you experience scrolling issues, toggle the scroll button at the bottom of your screen.

Comment as with any other thread, in the space below.

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Obama Leaves Pennsylvania, Heads to Indiana

Barack Obama isn't sticking around Pennsylvania to get the results. He's headed to a rally in Indiana.

John Mellecamp will perform at the Obama rally, but CNN says he's not endorsing Obama and will perform at a rally for both candidates in a few weeks.

Hillary is staying in Pennsylvania tonight and will hold a rally at a hotel in Philadelphia.

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Tonight's Media Coverage of the Pennsylvania Primary

Polls close in Pennsylvania in 80 minutes. The cable news networks have begun their evening media coverage. We'll have several threads going, but here's one to post your comments about the media coverage of the results. We'll close each thread when comments reach 200.

Who's the biggest Horses As*? Who did you like?

What networks are you watching? I'm watching whichever has an anchor talking. As soon as they go to pundits, I change the channel.

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Pennsylvania Exit Polls: Thread Three

CBS has posted its exit polling from Pennsylvania.

  • Most decided before this week
  • The economy was the dominant issue by 2 to 1 over Iraq (54% to 28%).Only 14% chose health care.
  • Change was more important to voters than experience by 49% to 26%.
  • 54% said campaign ads that aired in the past week was important.

CNN exit polling: (via TV)

  • 37% said they have a gun. 58% of them voted for Hillary
  • 39% attend church weekly. 59% voted for Clinton.

So, according to CNN, Obama didn't carry the gun or religious voters.

CNN also says there are a lot of first time voters among those newly registered. Wolf Blitzer says this is a big deal.

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More Exit Polls : Thread Two

Turnout numbers - 80% White, 14% A-A.

Key exit poll findings from ABC:

Preliminary results indicate that nearly six in 10 voters are women, which if it holds in final data will be a high for Pennsylvania, though about what it's been in all Democratic primaries this year. Turnout among African-Americans could be lower than it's been overall this year; it'll take updates later tonight to see whether it does or does not exceed the Pennsylvania primary record, 17 percent in 1988 and 1984.

We know Drudge said 52-48, but here is a reminder that early exit polls have not been great, and the early exits have been pretty favorable to Obama for whatever reason. Brendan Loy reminds:

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