Vast Left at Corrente: Obama's smart and charismatic and he voted against the war. Right?

Let's talk about the reasons to like him -- and more importantly, reasons he should be the Democratic nominee for President. Or not.

Update: (different topic) Check out Elizabeth Edwards op-ed in today's New York Times: Bowling 1, Health Care 0. It's about the media's shallow coverage of the presidential race.

AdamB is living in the past. In 2006, Barack Obama may have been the fresh face for Claire McCaskill in Missouri. But things change:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds John McCain leading Hillary Clinton by nine percentage points, 50% to 41%. He leads Barack Obama by an even larger margin, 53% to 38%.

Survey USA:

* John McCain 50%
* Barack Obama 42%

* John McCain 46%
* Hillary Clinton 47%

Time for Obama supporters to give a realistic argument for Obama's electability and downticket strength, not reprise bromides from 2006. That was then. This is now.

Michael Barone at Real Clear Politics examines the popular vote totals, including caucus states, and says Hillary Clinton is ahead.

Her 214,000-vote margin in the Keystone State means that she has won the votes, in primaries and caucuses, of 15,112,000 Americans, compared to 14,993,000 for Obama.

If you add in the votes, as estimated by the folks at realclearpolitics.com, in the Iowa, Nevada, Washington and Maine caucuses, where state Democratic parties did not count the number of caucus-attenders, Clinton still has a lead of 12,000 votes.

Barone says even with a loss in North Carolina, Hillary may keep the lead if she does well, as expected in W.Va and Kentucky and Puerto Rico. [More....]

The Associated Press reports on the state of the electoral map and says right now it favors Democrats. It includes 14 states as battleground states that could go either way.

William Arnone, long-time Democratic party activist and the author of the key state series I've quoted many times, has just finished his preliminary electoral vote preview and again graciously agreed to let me publish it.

Arnone says there are 17 battle ground states among the 50 states and the District of Columbia, which also has electoral votes.

As to Hillary or Obama, who's more likely to get the Dems over the 270 mark? Arnone says it's Hillary.

Here's his breakdown of the 538 electoral votes:

• 15 states are likely will go Democratic (196 EV)
• 19 states are likely to go Republican (152 EV)
• 17 are toss-ups or battleground states (190 EV)

The 17 battleground states are broken down as follows: [More...]

Hillary Clinton today asked Barack Obama to participate in a Lincoln-Douglas style debate without moderators. They would each ask the other questions.

Obama tells Fox News in a segment that will air tomorrow there will be no more debates before May 6, when Indiana and North Carolina vote.

Hillary's challenge:

“You know, after the last debate in Philadelphia, Senator Obama’s supporters complained a little bit about the tough questions. And you know, tough questions in the debate are nothing compared to the tough questions you get asked when you’re president and you have to answer them to make tough decisions,” she said.

“So here’s my proposal: I’m offering Senator Obama the chance to debate me one-on-one, no moderators. Just the two of us, going for 90 minutes, asking and answering questions. We’ll set whatever rules seem fair.”

Update: Comments now closed.

Just out from Newsweek:

After an important primary win in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton has reduced Democratic rival Barack Obama's double-digit lead among registered Democrats and voters leaning Democratic by more than half, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. Plagued by controversies over Rev. Jeremiah Wright's comments and the candidate's own "bitter" remarks, Obama has seen his favorability rating slip significantly in the last week, the poll found.

The survey found that Clinton now trails Obama by seven points, down from 19 just one week ago. The previous NEWSWEEK poll, conducted on the eve of the Pennsylvania primary, found that more than half (55 percent) of registered voters believed Obama was more electable, while 33 percent gave the edge to Clinton. The current poll finds Obama leading 46 percent to 38 percent.

Complete poll results are here.

Some Congressional Obama (I know some pretend to be "neutral") supporters seem intent on damaging Barack Obama's candidacy.

I have already mentioned Jim Clyburn's disastrous behavior. Nancy Pelosi has been a disaster for a while now. Now a new WaPo article provides more of the same:

"If you have any, any kind of loyalty to the Democratic Party, perhaps you need to rethink your strategy and bow out gracefully in order to save this party from a disastrous end in November," Rep. William Lacy Clay (Mo.), an African American Obama supporter, said in an appeal to Clinton.

(Emphasis supplied.) What an insulting, divisive and stupid remark. With friends like these, Obama needs no enemies. They seem intent on making Obama unelectable. More . .

Alice Palmer is campaigning for Hillary Clinton today in Indiana:

Joining Chelsea Clinton and other women leaders to campaign for Hillary Clinton today is Alice Palmer, the former state senator who picked Obama to be her successor back in the mid-90s. When she tried to reclaim her spot, though, Obama got her booted from the ballot.

Her story is an interesting one, since it shows how Obama plays hardball.

Fresh from his work as a civil rights lawyer and head of a voter registration project that expanded access to the ballot box, Obama launched his first campaign for the Illinois Senate saying he wanted to empower disenfranchised citizens.

But in that initial bid for political office, Obama quickly mastered the bare-knuckle arts of Chicago electoral politics. His overwhelming legal onslaught signaled his impatience to gain office, even if that meant elbowing aside an elder stateswoman like Palmer.

More...

Former President Bill Clinton is taking on a greater role Hillary's campaign. The Wall. St. Journal today:

His relentless approach to battling Barack Obama -- on the trail and inside the campaign -- is becoming key to Sen. Clinton's newfound success, as she has won four of the last six primaries.

He believes the campaign should be stronger in its attacks on Obama. He's also increasing his campaign appearances.

Mr. Clinton also told the campaign to double the number of his daily appearances. "Look at this schedule -- you've got me down for four events," he said the week before Pennsylvania's primary, according to one operative. "Give me six, eight a day. Get me to the suburbs where I can make a difference."

His involvement has had a positive impact. In the rural counties in PA where he campaigned for Hillary, she got more votes: [More...]

The DNC Rulea and Bylaws Committee will meet May 31 to decide whether the DNC exceeded its authority in stripping FL and MI delegates because the states held early primaries.

The plan under consideration: Allowing all the superdelegates to vote and giving the pledged delegates 1/2 vote (or only seating 1/2 the pledged delegates.

Michigan lost 128 pledged delegates and 28 superdelegates, for a total of 156. Florida lost 185 pledged and 25 superdelegates, or a total of 210.

If it were valid, Florida's election would have given Clinton 105 delegates to Obama's 67. Michigan's would have given Clinton 73 delegates, while 55 were uncommitted. That means awarding half-delegates would give Clinton 89 more delegates and Obama 33.5, with 27.5 uncommitted.delegates.)

More...

Supporters of both Obama and Clinton seem unable to even consider a Unity Ticket. I think that is exactly why it is necessary. The divisions are extreme now. They are not ideological. Heck, how could they be? There is not a dime's worth of difference between the candidates on the issues.

Some want imagine there is some huge philosophical war going on - some New v. Old Politics fight to the finish. That is delusion or a grasp at thinking there is something really meaningful to this nomination fight. Others have absolutely no concern about the divisions in the Party. Indeed, there is more concern about the probable winning candidate's base:

The Field’s presumed qualifications are that it will be a Catholic Democrat of evident competence and experience, a team player, and someone the nominee and his base consider ready to be president.

(Emphasis supplied.) We already know how immature Nancy Pelosi has been. I wonder if there are any grownups left in the Democratic Party.

Howard Dean said:

[Superdelegates] have every right to overturn the popular vote and choose the candidate they believe would be best equipped to defeat John McCain in a general election. . . If it's very very close, they will do what they want anyway. . . I think the race is going to come down to the perception in the last six or eight races of who the best opponent for McCain will be. I do not think in the long run it will come down to the popular vote or anything else.

I hope Howard Dean is wrong. While it is true the super delegates have the power to vote by any criteria, I hope they respect the will of the people as demonstrated by the popular vote (the pledged delegate count is NOT a reflection of the will of the people.) I know Jeralyn disagrees with me, but calculating who is more electable and ignoring the will of the people is simply wrong in my view.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only