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Sunday :: December 20, 2009

Bad Chess Players

This Steve Benen post is a wonderful example of how bad some Democrats are at the political game:

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Hacker: Health Bill "A Step" Towards HCR

Jacob Hacker, the intellectual popularizer of the "public option" idea, argues that he "believes" in the Senate health bill as a step towards reform, yet argues:

If it does not deliver--if the new options offered through the exchange do not attract broad enrollment, if insurers continue to undermine health security with impunity--then the worst fears of progressives will come true. [. . .] And Americans will become increasingly disillusioned with the promise of reform.

[MORE . . .]

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More Guantanamo Detainees Sent Home

In addition to the six detainees who arrived back in their home country of Yemen yesterday, six others were sent to Afhanistan and the Somali region:

Those released are:

* Afghans Abdul Hafiz, Sharifullah, Mohamed Rahim and Mohammed Hashim.
* Somali detainees Mohammed Soliman Barre and Ismael Arale.
* Yemenis Jamal Muhammad Alawi Mari, Farouq Ali Ahmed, Ayman Saeed Abdullah Batarfi, Muhammaed Yasir Ahmed Taher, Fayad Yahya Ahmed al Rami and Riyad Atiq Ali Abdu al Haf.

A Tunisian detainee, Moez Ben Abdelkader Fezzani, also known as Abou Nassim, was sent to Italy where he will be tried on terror charges for recruiting Afghan fighters.

198 detainees remain. About 100 will be sent to Thomson Correctional Center in Illinois, some of whom will be tried by military commission. [More...]

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Sunday Morning Open Thread

There are football games today. Should be fun to watch some snow games.

This is an Open Thread.

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Fighting For The Policy Or The Pols?

While Ed Kilgore has done a great job highlighting the fault lines on policy between Democrats and progressives on the health issue, there is another fault line in the discussion - those who think it is important that President Obama and the Democrats get to take a victory lap on the issue and others who think that holding a parade is counterproductive to better policy outcomes in the future. After all, if you have already "solved the problem," what else would you need to do? I think that a confluence of events has actually made this a false choice. It seems to me Tom Harkin has his the sweet spot with his "starter home" formulation. Nate Silver writes:

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Attempts At Cost Containment, Except The Best One

Paul Krugman:

[T]he Senate bill tries a wide variety of approaches to cost containment — in fact, just about everything that has been suggested. We don’t know which of these approaches will work or how well, but that’s more than anyone has managed to achieve ever before.

(Emphasis supplied.) Actually we know the approach that has worked historically in the United States to control health care costs, the public insurance option, was stripped from the bill. The bill does some good, but it does nothing meaningful in terms of cost containment. Weak stuff from Krugman.

Speaking for me only

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Saturday :: December 19, 2009

Saturday Night Open Thread

Are you snowed in on the East Coast or just relaxing inside tonight?

If you missed the health care news (BTD has followed the developments, just scroll down) the Dems have their 60 votes, here's the CBO summary of the Manager's Amendment (full letter here. ) And no one likes the abortion compromise.

Six detainees from Guantanamo have arrived home in Yemen. 91 Yemenis remain, among the 200+ detainees still being held.

Here's an open thread, all topics welcome.

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Stupak

Via John Cole, here comes Stupak:

An aide to Rep. Bart Stupak (D. Mich.) coordinated opposition to a Senate compromise on the place of abortion in health care legislation this morning with the Republican Senate leadership, the Conference Catholic Bishops, and other anti-abortion groups, according to a chain of frantic emails obtained this morning by POLITICO. The emails show that Stupak — who has so far remained silent on language accepted by Senator Ben Nelson (D. Neb.) and faces intense pressure from the White House to accept it — is already working behind the scenes to oppose the compromise.

While John goes apoplectic, I am not surprised. In a sense, Stupak is being principled. He wants to ban abortions being offered in the Exchanges. Nelson's "compromise" does not do that. We'll see what happens.

speaking for me only

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Cost Containment

From the CBO Report (PDF):

[FN 11] The presence of the public plan had a more noticeable effect on CBO’s estimates of federal subsidies because it was expected to exert some downward pressure on the premiums of the lower-cost plans to which those subsidies would be tied.

The total cost of the bill went up by 23 billion dollars from $848 billion to $871 billion. How much of that was due to the removal of the public option? How about that? Ezra noticed it too. I guess he can go back to saying nice things about the public option now that it is dead.

Speaking for me only

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Harkin: Health Bill A "Starter House"

Tom Harkin on the health biil:

“What we are buying here is a modest home, not a mansion. What we are getting here is a starter home.

In an important way, this is quite helpful. One of the more frustrating aspects of the debate this past week was the attempt to sell the Senate bill is a great piece of progressive legislation. It simply is not. It is not only modest in it attempts at reform, it is flawed politically and in terms of policy. If you believe it is a start on reform, and I do not, then do not oversell it as the end. Understand that you have NOT solved the problem. Acknowledge that you have not solved the problem. And most importantly, PROMISE to keep working on the problem. Harkin strikes the right tone.

Speaking for me only

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So When Can We Address Health Care REFORM?

As I have posted below, with some fairly modest changes, I am supporting passage of the Health Insurance Premium Assistance bill. I suspect the unions and the House will be successful in either killing or sufficiently modifying the Excise Tax so that it does no harm to middle class workers (a provision limiting it to policies sold to persons making over 200K a year seems a natural as it contours precisely with President Obama's promises on taxes.) But my second change, sunsetting the mandates in 2019, is intended to get us back to the issue of health care reform. Perhaps, sooner rather than later. The meager demands of Ben Nelson in the end demonstrate to me that the health insurance industry was really fearful of losing a captive market through the mandates. Clearly, the one impetus we can count on for putting and keeping REAL health care reform on the agenda is the mandate. Paul Krugman writes:

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Sunset Mandates, Eliminate Excise Tax, Then Support Health Insurance Premium Assistance Bill

If I have understood correctly the concessions to Ben Nelson, I am prepared to support the bill - with 2 conditions - sunset the mandates in 2019 and eliminate the excise tax, using instead the House financing approach. Of course this bill is not health care reform - but it is health insurance premium assistance for the less well off paid for by the wealthy (IF the House financing provisions are used).

In order to have another chance to reform health care, the bargaining chip of the mandates needs to be put back on the table at some point in the future. Sunsetting the mandates will do that.

Nothing to have a parade about, but with those two changes, Democrats can argue they did some good with this health insurance premium assistance bill without crippling the chance for real reform in the future.

Speaking for me only

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