By now it should be apparent to anyone that without a contemporaneous fix of the Senate health bill, the Stand Alone Senate bill is dead. No matter how many times Village Dems and bloggers chant "pass the bill," the math is inescapable - there simply is no possible way to get 218 votes in the House to pass the Senate bill WITHOUT a companion fix via reconciliation.

That may be "monstrous" or "politically stupid" or anything else anyone wants to call it, but it is the political reality. With that reality staring people in the face, the continued strategy of "punching the hippies" employed by Village Dems and bloggers is irresponsible, from THEIR perspective. It is nothing more than a juvenile temper tantrum now. Want them to "pass the bill?" Then push the Senate to agree to a companion fix via reconciliation. Anything else is nothing more than a de facto "Kill the Bill" movement.

Speaking for me only

Conan O'Brien sighs off tonight. The NY Times has quotes from his monologue and the text of his entire closing. He takes the high road, particularly with respect to NBC. A snippet:

To all the people watching, I can never thank you enough for your kindness to me and I’ll think about it for the rest of my life. All I ask of you is one thing: please don’t be cynical. I hate cynicism — it’s my least favorite quality and it doesn’t lead anywhere.

Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you’re kind, amazing things will happen.

I'm going to tune in later just to watch him deliver them. (Of course, since I am cynical, I have to add that if I had just been handed $30 million, I'd be feeling charitable towards everyone too.)

This is an open thread, all topics welcome.

If you're watching the Hope for Haiti Now telethon, let us know what you think.

To donate: 1-877-99-HAITI.

If you aren't by a tv, it is being live streamed online globally across sites including YouTube, Hulu, MySpace, Fancast, AOL, MSN.com, Yahoo, Bing.com, BET.com, CNN.com, MTV.com, VH1.com and Rhapsody, and on mobile via Alltel, AT&T, Sprint, Verizon and FloTV.

Some clips below:

Update: Via Variety, Polanski's lawyer says he will appeal denial to state appeals court. Background on statute at issue for today's hearing is here.

Update: Via Twitter, Judge denies Polanski's request. So he goes back to the appeals court now which suggested it in the first place? First to report it on Twitter: Royal Oakes. Second: Steve Futterman of CBS News. (I was third, but I waited for confirmation.) Now there are a ton of tweets, but none with details yet as to reasons. The web will be best for those.

The hearing in LA on Roman Polanski's request to be sentenced in absentia is underway. Via Twitter, 10 minutes ago from CBS reporter Steve Fetterman: "It appears from comments in court that judge is denying polanski request to be sentenced in absentia." No further details yet.

E.J. Dionne:

[L]eaders of both Houses are considering: The House would pass a version of the reconciliation bill containing the various amendments and send it to the Senate. The Senate would change it slightly (in ways that the House agreed to), which would require the House to vote on it again. Only after it got the revised reconciliation bill would the House take up the Senate bill. The House could then pass both bills and send both to the president. Problem solved, health-care passes, and we move on.

Finally, someone is addressing the situation constructively.

Kristen Diane Parker, "Ms. Hepatitis C" appeared in federal court in Denver today for sentencing. She had a plea agreement for a 20 year sentence. The judge said no dice.

As part of her plea deal, she had to explain on video how she committed the crime.

Some new revelations came out in the video. One of the issues between the surgery patients at Rose Hospital and Rose is that Rose only has been willing to compensate patients who developed the disease if there is a 95% or greater chance their Hepatitis C came from Parker. Some of the patients who subsequently developed the disease appear to have a different strain. [More...]

Steve Benen writes:

The pundits want the House to pass the Senate bill. Leading reform advocates want the House to pass the Senate bill. Major union leaders want the House to pass the Senate bill. [ . . .]

Either Benen did not read the link he provides or thinks people will not click the link. The title says it all:

Update: The ACLU today launched a new website, Indefinite Detention." No Charges, no Trial, No Justice."

A Department of Justice -led task force is recommending 50 Guantanamo detainees, mostly Afghan and Yemeni, be held indefinitely without charges under the laws of war.

The task force's findings represent the first time that the administration has clarified how many detainees it considers too dangerous to release but unprosecutable because officials fear trials could compromise intelligence-gathering and because detainees could challenge evidence obtained through coercion.

[More...]

Here are the details for Hope for Haiti Now: A Global Benefit for Earthquake Relief, a telethon which will be aired live tonight across the globe. Hosts for the event are: George Clooney in Los Angeles, Wyclef Jean in New York and Cooper in Haiti.

The show begins accepting donation at noon, ET. Here's how:

• Online: www.hopeforhaitinow.org
• Phone: 877-99-HAITI
• Text: Text "GIVE" to 50555
• Mail: Hope For Haiti Now Fund, Entertainment Industry Foundation, 1201 West 5th Street, Suite T-700, Los Angeles, CA 90017

[More...]

The principal architect and proponent of the excise tax, Jon Gruber, is one of the signatories to the letter urging passage of the Stand Alone Senate bill sent to House leaders. As I explained before, whatever you think of the merits of the excise tax, it is the principal stumbling block for passage of the Senate bill in the House. But it also would be a principal obstacle to a populist message for the Dems in the 2010 elections. As I wrote about earlier, John Judis argues that the biggest problem with the Senate health bill is the perception that it harms middle class voters at the expense of corporation and the wealthy:

Where Obama invited a voter backlash was by letting the burden of reducing health care costs appear to fall on senior citizens and those middle-class workers who had acquired good health insurance through decades of union battles with management, and not on the insurance and drug companies. Obama ceded too much to the policy wonks who were devising intricate schemes to show they could cut the deficit. He took his eye of off the political imperative of keeping middle America in his corner.

The excise tax was a political poison pill. Ironically, there is a chance to fix that now. Dems should jump at the chance.

Speaking for me only

Kevin Drum and Mark Kleiman wonder:

Mark Kleiman nominates another unforeseen beneficiary: ["]One aspect of the ruling that hasn’t gathered much attention: as far as I can tell, the analysis doesn’t distinguish between domestic and foreign corporations....So the ruling allows Hugo Chavez to spend as much money as he wants to helping and harming American politicians. If the Russian, Saudi, and Chinese governments don’t currently have appropriate vehicles for doing so, you can count on it: they soon will. [. . .] Buying influence on the American government has to be the highest-leverage activity ever invented, and Justice Kennedy and his four accomplices just invited every oligarch and tyrant in the world to play. This is not just a threat to democracy; it’s a threat to sovereignty."

Not sure if Kleiman is right, but it is a wonderfully appealing line of populist attack available to the Democrats on Citizens United. Arlen Specter is proposing a constitutional amendment to reverse Citizens United. Part of the sell can be that it will keep foreign money out of our elections.

Speaking for me only

to the wrong people:

Nearly four dozen of the nation's leading health care luminaries [sent] a letter [to House leaders . . .] We have come further than we have ever come before. Only two steps remain. The House must adopt the Senate bill, and the President must sign it. [. . .] Some differences between the bills, such as the scope of the tax on high-cost plans and the allocation of premium subsidies, should be repaired through the reconciliation process[.]"

(Emphasis supplied.) Far be it from me to correct "four dozen health care luminaries," but that is 3 steps, not 2. And the third step is the point now. House Dems will not cross the unions. The third step has to happen with passage of the Senate bill. Unless the "luminaries" have GOTV operations as strong as the unions, they sent their letter to the wrong place. They need to send it to the OTHER side of the Capital - the Senate.

Speaking for me only