The night begins. Big Tent Democrat's predictions are here. Is Nate Silver as good at predicting Hollywood as he is elections? Here are his predictions.

Enjoy the show, everyone. [More....]

The red carpet is in full swing. I had to turn off E! because I don't like Kelly O. and their manicure magnifier was so ridiculously pointless. Who wants to listen to actresses talk about their nails?

I'm now watching TVGN with the Bachelor's Chris Harrison. He gets better every year, and it's actually pleasant to watch with some meaningful questions about the reason for the event: the movies.

I've never even heard of Seth McFarlane who is hosting tonight. A quick search of Google doesn't leave me expecting much. It's been years since a host did anything spontaneous, so it probably doesn't matter much who is hosting.

Who did you think looked great? Awful? What network are you watching? Updates to follow.

Yes, I still exist. Busy busy. But not too busy for some "investing" fun today - Oscars Edition, on the flip:

Eugene Collier of Oregon thought he saw something on all fours crouching at the edge of his property. Thinking it might be a bear, Collier, an experienced hunter, shot it. The target he fatally shot turned out to be Marine reservist Christopher Ochoa.

Eugene Collier admits he was shooting to kill when he fired the .270-caliber bullet that caused Christopher Ochoa’s death on Oct 21, 2011. But he thought he was shooting at a bear.

Collier, who has been a hunter for 60 years, and his grandson had gone hunting for the weekend, and were staying at Collier's cabin in the woods. When he first realized he shot a human, he froze, thinking maybe he had shot his grandson.

Collier said it wasn’t until he was 100 yards away from his target that he knew he had shot a human. “I froze. I thought the only person up there was my grandson, then I realized he wasn’t dressed like that.”

[More...]

George Zimmerman will not be allowed to depose Benjamin Crump, the judge ruled today.

The hearing is going on now, you can watch live here.

I'm out for most of the day. Here's an open thread, all topics welcome.

This may have been the most long and drawn out bail decision ever. It went one way, then the other, for over an hour. It wasn't until the last 2 minutes you knew Oscar Pistorius was getting bail.

Here are the main points expressed by the judge in making his findings and rulings: [More...]

Court has begun in the final bail hearing for Oscar Pistorius. The prosecutor is finishing his closing argument. He complains Oscar submitted an affidavit instead of testifying. Magistrate Desmond Nair asks: "Is he not permitted to bring the application by affidavit?" Nel says: "Nobody can force him to, he makes an election." (The correct answer is "yes".) [More...]

Investigator Hilton Botha has been removed from the Oscar Pistorius case, but not suspended.

In court yesterday, the Judge questioned Botha about aspects of his testimony, but not the attempted murder charges against him. (See earlier post here.)

The new team of detectives will be led by "the country's top detective" Vinesh Moonoo. [More...]

At 11:00 a.m. SAT (2:00 am MT), defense lawyer Barry Roux and prosecutor Gerrie Nel will make their closing arguments as to why Oscar Pistorius should be allowed or refused bail.

Chief Magistrate Judge Desmond Nair will then make the decision. The big questions:

• Will Magistrate Nair reconsider his prior ruling on premeditation and reduce the charge to a class five offense from a class six, which has a lesser standard to meet for bail?
• If he stays with a class six offense, will he find exceptional circumstances for bail?
• If he reduces the charge to a class five offense, will he find the ends of justice require bail?

I predict Oscar Pistorius will be granted bail and the judge will find Oscar is not a flight risk or a significant danger to himself or the community. I do not think he'll conclude, as many have since Investigator Hilton Botha's confused and misleading testimony yesterday, that the prosecution's case is DOA. Nor do I think the revelation of reinstated attempted murder charges against Botha will have any impact on his bail ruling, although it may complicate things. [More...]

In the "you can't make this stuff up" department: Hilton Botha, the lead investigator in the Oscar Pistorius murder case who testified at yesterday's bail hearing, is himself charged with 7 counts of attempted murder resulting from a drunken spree with other officers. They are charged with opening fire on a mini-bus filled with passengers. They allegedly were drunk and in a state vehicle.

Botha and his co-defendant officers have a hearing in May. Charges were filed in 2011, dropped, and then reinstated, of all days, yesterday. (Update: Police management is now saying the charges were reinstated days before Reeva Steenkamp's killing and Oscar's arrest.)

A police spokesman today confirmed the charges and said Botha will remain on Oscar's case. [More...]

(For what happened earlier on Day Two of Oscar Pistorius’ bail hearing, see here. What happened on Day One is here.)

The hearing resumed after lunch around 1:35 pm, SAT, with continued cross examination of Investigator Hilton Botha by Defense Attorney Roux. Court adjourned around 2:40 pm. The Magistrate granted a request by the defense that Oscar continue to be held at the Brooklyn Police station instead of being moved to a prison.

Court will reconvene at 11:00 a.m. tomorrow to hear legal arguments. The Magistrate may render his decision after arguments.

See below for what's likely to happen tomorrow, followed by what happened in the final hour of today's hearing. [More....]