We're just about into the middle of October, and so far, no surprise. There will be one, of course, Karl Rove leaves nothing to chance.

Here's my current best guess: Osama will turn up dead. There's too many problems if he turns up alive....debate over where he gets held, does he get a trial and by who, yada yada.

If he turns up dead, it will be as if Bush killed the Wicked Witch of the West in the Wizard of Oz...people will be chanting, "Ding, Dong, the witch is dead" as if all our battles with terrorists will be over.

Bush needs Osama gone, not captured. Now here's the question: If he turns up dead, will an independent pathologist or medical examiner be allowed to examine his remains to determine how long he's been dead? Wouldn't you want to know if he died a few days ago or has been in storage for six months or more, in preparation for an October unveiling?

Just a thought.

A big round of applause for our nation's labor unions...they are making their own Vote for Change tour, only they are using electricians, rather than musicians. On a mass scale, union members are hitting the road to get out the vote and beat Bush.

Union leaders are running a massive on-the-ground effort to defeat President Bush in swing states — a push that could prove crucial as the race for the White House boils down to competing drives to turn out voters.

Longshore workers, who tangled with the Bush administration during the 2002 West Coast port lockout, are walking precincts in landlocked Las Vegas. Members of the United Auto Workers (news - web sites), whose organizing tactics are being challenged by Bush appointees on the National Labor Relations Board, are stirring up fellow union members in depressed Midwestern factory towns.

Janitors with the aggressive Service Employees International Union are riding buses from Los Angeles to Arizona and from New York to Florida, targeting Latino voters. Meanwhile, the political bellwether state of Ohio is teeming with union electricians, steelworkers, phone technicians and other volunteers from neighboring states.

These union members, and admittedly, there are union members and even unions that feel differently, really, really dislike Bush.

Kentucky Republican Senator Jim Bunning is in hot water with critics for admitting he used a teleprompter during a debate with his opponent this week.

I thought it was obvious Bush used a teleprompter during his closing statement at the first debate (September 30) and said so at the time. From my live-blogging post:

Closing: Bush has to be reading from a teleprompter for his closing. He's fluent for the first time all night. And his facial expressions are practiced and nuanced to fit the cadence of his speech. What a difference. He can't do it without a script.

Kerry's closing also seemed much more pat than his debate answers. I just assumed the rules allow use of teleprompters for closing arguments. Does anyone know the answer?

Here's how Bush and Kerry's stands differ on domestic issues, according to the San Francisco Chronicle:

Bush supports tax cuts for all Americans; Kerry favors cuts for those earning less than $200,000 a year. Kerry favors government subsidies and tax breaks to bring down the cost of health care; Bush favors a market-based approach. Kerry favors importation of prescription drugs from Canada; Bush does not.

Bush opposes legal abortion and federal funding of embryonic stem cell research, and supports a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage; Kerry supports abortion rights and federal spending on embryonic stem cell research and a state-by-state approach to same-sex marriage.

Bush supports the death penalty; Kerry opposes it.

Kerry's advisors apparently are telling him to rachet up the use of statistics during tonight's debate. [link corrected]

I think that's a very poor move. Statistics lose viewers. Cable news producers roll their eyes when guests start spouting them off. They even ask guests not to use them. Viewers want to hear ideas, not numbers.

Does anyone think the death penalty will come up as an issue tonight? Given the Supreme Court's oral arguments today on the juvenile death penalty, I would like to hear Bush explain his support for a punishment that has been rejected by almost every civilized nation in the world and puts us in the company of Iran, Iran, Pakistan, China and Saudi Arabia.

Or how about asking Bush to explain why abortion is murder but the death penalty isn't? If he truly supports life, and all life is valuable, shouldn't he oppose state-sanctioned murder?

This is an important debate...particularly if Bush flubs it again like he did during the first debate.

Six U.S. soldiers were killed today in Iraq. It will probably get worse now that an ultimatum has been given in Fallujah to turn over al Zarqawi or face new attacks.

In Baghdad, Iraq’s interim prime minister also warned that US. and Iraqi forces will launch military operations in the main insurgent stronghold Fallujah if residents do not hand over Jordanian terror mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, whose group has kidnapped and beheaded numerous foreigners, including Briton Ken Bigley.

Fat chance, especially now.

Last year, insurgents sharply increased their attacks against coalition forces during Ramadan, expected to start at the end of this week. Extremists believe they win a special place in paradise if they die in a jihad, or holy war, during Ramadan.

PFC Lynndie England is a mother. She gave birth Sunday at Fort Bragg. The father reportedly is Charles Graner, who is also facing Abu Ghraib abuse charges. The Baltimore Sun reports the baby is a boy.

England's trial is set for January, 2005. If convicted on all 17counts, she could receive up to 38 years in jail.

Among the charges is conspiring to commit maltreatment of an Iraqi detainee by posing in a photograph holding a leash around the detainee, indecent acts with numerous soldiers and wrongfully creating sexually explicit photographs of herself.

Last year Attorney General John Ashcroft embarked on a three week tour of the country to promote the Patiot Act, followed by a one week Liberty Tour. How much did he spend bringing the Administrations' propoganda to those beyond the beltway? According to the GAO, more than $200,000.

Rep. John Conyers asked for the accounting. Now that it's in, he is asking for an investigation.

The law maker accused Ashcroft (pdf) of violating federal laws that prohibit the executive branch from conducting "propaganda" or legislative lobbying with public money.

The Justice Department responded:

The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments today in Roper v. Simmons, a case that will decide the constitutionality of executing people who were under 18 at the time of their crimes. There are 71 Death Row inmates in the U.S. who committed murder as teens. (check out this graphic from the Dallas Morning News.)

We're in good company. The only other countries that execute offenders who were juveniles at the time of their crime are Iran, Iran, Pakistan, China and Saudi Arabia.;

In 1988 and 1989, when the Court last considered the issue, it ruled that states could not execute those younger than 16 when they commit murder, but concluded there was no national consensus against executing juveniles who are 16 or 17. [Note, that the issue revolves around the age at which the crime was committed, not age at the time of execution.] Here are some of the most recent news articles examining the case and issue:

Chicago Tribune: 4 of 9 Justices call for end to executing Juveniles.

Two justices who voted to strike down the death penalty for the retarded--Sandra Day O'Connor and Anthony Kennedy--may be the most likely to provide additional votes for outlawing juvenile executions.

The third and final Kerry-Bush debate takes place tonight in Arizona. Here's what topics are on the agenda :

"What I'm going to tell the people tomorrow night is we're not going to go back to the days of tax and spend," Bush told supporters in Arizona, criticising Kerry as a big-spending liberal whose health care plan would amount to a government takeover.

Kerry's plan:

One of the defendants in the recently overturned Detroit terror case was released from jail today--allowed to go to a halfway house while he awaits trial on a document fraud offense and possible deportation. He had quite an earful for the Judge:

"I am innocent," said the immigrant, Karim Koubriti, a 26-year-old Moroccan, in an interview shortly after the judge, Gerald A. Rosen, said he would not have to return to prison. "I always say I was innocent. Three years ago I said I was innocent and nobody believed me except these guys," he said, referring to his lawyers.

Mr. Koubriti said he had been kept in an isolation cell 23 hours a day for much of his incarceration with a television but no reading material. "All my time in Wayne County they didn't even let me out to smell air," he said, referring to the jail at Wayne County, which encompasses Detroit. He also said he was often verbally abused in prison for being a terrorism suspect, especially in 2001.

"It was horrible, especially from some of the deputies - not all, to be honest with you," he said. "I heard all sorts of stuff - devil worshiper, monster, go pray to your terrorist god."

And in what must be the understatement of his life, when asked about his release, he said:

News from Germany today:

Germany might deploy troops in Iraq if conditions there change, Peter Struck, the German defence minister, indicated on Tuesday in a gesture that appears to provide backing for John Kerry, the US Democratic presidential challenger.

....Mr Struck also welcomed Mr Kerry’s proposal that he would convene an international conference on Iraq including countries that opposed the war if he were to win next month's election.

Germany would certainly attend, Mr Struck said. “This is a very sensible proposal. The situation in Iraq can only be cleared up when all those involved sit together at one table. Germany has taken on responsibilities in Iraq, including financial ones; this would naturally justify our involvement in such a conference.”

So why do the television pundits say it will never happen? [hat tip to reader Fred.]