David Corn asks whether Bush and Cheney want the Republicans to lose tomorrow, citing Bush's recent endorsement of Rumsfeld, his refusal to acknowledge reality in Iraq, and Cheney's decision to go hunting on Election Day. A more likely explanation for Bush's actions: an arrogant inability to accept the consequences of his inept decision-making. And from Cheney's perspective: hiding from reality in a duck blind is more pleasant than confronting it.

Will 2006 finally be the end of Newt Gingrich's Contract on America?

Among those GOP lawmakers in hard-fought races are several vying for seventh terms, first elected in the Republican revolution of 1994. Back then, the party gained 52 seats to end four decades of Democratic control with promises of balancing the budget and enacting term limits.

Of course, any adherent to the Gingrich contract who is still in office has ignored the contract's "term limits" plank. Republicans who don't keep their promises? What a shock.

The late deciders are going to Webb:

Democrat Jim Webb has surged ahead of Republican George Allen in the last poll of the campaign, conducted for News-7 by SurveyUSA. The survey shows Webb with 52% of the likely voters, with 44% going to Allen.

The Booker decision gave federal judges an opportunity to craft sentences that are appropriate to the offender and offense, guided but not bound by the federal sentencing guidelines. Appellate courts after Booker are to review sentences for reasonableness.

Many federal appellate courts have undermined the Booker decision by reversing sentences that fall below the advisory guideline sentence, and some have gone so far as to deem a guideline sentence presumptively reasonable, while giving less deferential scrutiny to sentences that are more lenient than the guidelines suggest. (Courts seem less troubled by sentences that exceed the advisory guideline.) These decisions have the practical effect of restoring the binding force of the guidelines, recreating the constitutional problem that Booker purported to solve: mandatory punishment for crimes that are never proved to a jury. (TalkLeft background on the Booker decision is collected here.)

The Supreme Court on Friday accepted review of two cases that question whether within-guideline sentences deserve more deferential review than those that fall outside the guidelines.

Because the rule of law is indifferent to identity, even the loathsome deserve a fair trial. Curtis Doebbler, a member of Saddam Hussein's defense team, explains why the Hussein verdict and death sentence is "a classic instance of 'victor's injustice' imposed on the heels of the illegal US invasion of Iraq."

All exculpating evidence was withheld from the defense; defense witnesses were threatened by court officials; defense lawyers were assaulted by US officials; and the defendants we not given the charges against them until eight months after the prosecution had started presenting evidence and the day the defense was required to start its case. The list of violations is long and undoubtedly the reason why every independent expert has found the trial unfair.

As you travel to your polling place tomorrow, don't take a short-cut through the woods: Dick Cheney is going hunting.

It will be Cheney's first hunting trip since February, when he accidentally shot a hunting companion while attempting to fire at a covey of quail on a private ranch in Texas.

As Democrats are poised to take control of the House (and perhaps the Senate), some business leaders are saying things like this:

"Barney Frank is fair, he's smart, and he's focused," says former Representative Steve Bartlett (R-Tex.), now CEO of the Financial Services Roundtable. "That's the kind of leadership we need."

Business Week reassures its readers that Democrats are not hostile to business (or, the article implies, to corporate lobbyists). Democrats will, however, take oversight of multinational corporations a bit more seriously than the Republicans did:

Of course, even a more conciliatory approach probably won't deter Democrats from convening oversight hearings to target certain industries with close ties to the Bush White House -- particularly energy, pharmaceuticals, insurance, and defense.

The most recent of the generic polls, the one furthest from John Kerry, predicts a huge Dem tidal wave:

The percentage of likely voters who plan to vote for Democrats in Tuesday's congressional elections increased in the past week, and those voters supporting Democrats also seem less likely to change their minds before casting ballots, according to a CNN poll conducted over the weekend. Democrats hold a 58 percent to 38 percent advantage over Republicans among likely voters in the survey released Monday morning, compared to the 53 percent to 42 percent advantage reflected in the poll a week ago.

And Bush's approval ratings suffered due to his high visibility:

President Bush's popularity took another dip over the past week, and four out of 10 likely voters said their disapproval of the job he is doing will impact how they cast their congressional ballots on Tuesday, according to a new CNN poll. Bush's approval rating fell to 35 percent, with 61 percent of those polled saying they disapproved of the way he is handling his job as president, in the survey conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. This represents a two point decline in Bush's approval rating compared to the CNN poll conducted a week earlier and it is four points lower than the survey taken two weeks ago.

Sending Bush out may have energized the GOP base, but it seems to have deepened the anger of Dems and Independents as well. A two-edged sword for the Republicans.

At Daily Kos, DemfromCt provides good analysis on the latest polling:

Andy Kohut of The Pew Research Center was interviewed on NPR about the recent Pew Poll. He noted that while the voter sentiment hasn't changed, what has changed is Republicans are more energized than they were. The poll was adjusted to reflect that, and there we have the explanation for the poll tightening. Subgroups who have a Dem lead (but not as much as before) include women and independents. The slew of polls we covered yesterday looked at those subgroups as well.

. . . It's not that all of a sudden Bush and Iraq became popular on Friday. What happened over the weekend is interviews suggested that as unhappy as Republican voters are, they'll hold their nose and vote for the GOP. To that extent, the GOP "play to the base" campaign worked as designed.

The importance of likely voter models therefore should be appreciated. Gallup's been doing theirs for a long time, yet in a wave election, the sentiment for change can be underestimated (by definition, the LV model isn't based on changing from the past). Frank Newport thinks it looks like 1994, and the difference is strong enough to take the House.

The dynamics of the race have not changed but the GOP has successfully energized its base. Who turns out will determine the size of the wave on Tuesday.

As always, the Republican Party lives down to expectations:

It turns out that some of the political phone messages Granite Staters are receiving as Election Day nears may be illegal. The issue revolves around the national Do Not Call registry.

A homeowner in Hillsboro received the same message several times in one day. It began by stating it had information about Paul Hodes, the Democratic challenger for the 2nd Congressional District.

After a few seconds, the ad turns on the attack. It isn't until the end that you find out it was sponsored by the Republican National Congressional Committee.

These dirty tricks, which are illegal, are being employed in 53 races by the GOP.

Has there been a slimier political party than today's Republicans?

Via Georgia10 at Daily Kos:

Take a minute and remind everyone in your address book to vote this Tuesday. American Greetings has free election day e-cards you can send to all your friends and family.

Raw Story has Denver trainer and "masseuse" Mike Jones' profile as he posted in on AOL's Hometown. You can view the pix here.

This one's the cutest: