After a day filled with hot air, with Democrats vehemently crying for up and down votes on nonbinding resolutions to oppose the Bush Iraq Surge, and the GOP desperately trying to avoid going on the record in support of the Bush surge, the very smart columnist E J Dionne learns some correct lessons and some incorrect ones. The correct ones:

In other words: Even if a substantial majority of Congress that includes many Republicans demonstrates a lack of confidence in the Bush-Cheney surge, the administration will feel free to ignore the other elected branch of our government -- and the more recently elected branch (remember November, anyone?) at that.

And the GOP wants avoid getting shackled with Iraq in 2008. This is clear and that seems obvious to me. But what EJ is missing is that this Kabuki will mean nothing in November 2008. But, to be fair, EJ sees this as building up for a reversal of Iraq policy:

The impatience of the administration's critics is entirely understandable. But it would be a shame if impatience got in the way of a sensible long-term strategy to bring America's engagement in this war to as decent an end as possible as quickly as possible -- even if not as quickly as they'd like. The anti-surge resolution is a necessary first step, which is why those who are against a genuine change in our Iraq policy are fighting so hard to stop it.

Dionne is incorrect here. This does NOT lead to a sensible long term strategy to end the war. It is NOT a first step towards that. Russ Feingold is right:

This is not a time to finesse the situation. This is not a time for a slow walk. This almost reminds me a little bit of the way Democrats behaved in October 2002, which was trying to play it safe, trying to use words such as 'well, we're going to vote for this resolution, but what it really means is that the president should go to the UN. That stuff doesn’t fly. And this kind of attempt to go a little bit of the way just to show you're on the other side of the president doesn’t fly either.

One of the grand jurors in the Duke Lacrosse players' alleged sexual assault case says he now has second thoughts. Two of the grand jurors appeared on Good Morning America. They couldn't discuss what happened in the grand jury, so they talked only about their impressions since.

"Knowing what I know now and all that's been broadcast on the news and in media, I think I would have definitely … made a different decision," he said to ABC News.

"I don't think I could have made a decision to go forward with the charges that were put before us. I don't think those charges would have been the proper charges, based on what I know now," he said.

The second grand juror disagreed.

"I don't know for sure whether she was raped, you know, because of everything that … came out," he said. "I'm not sure, to tell you the truth."

It's time for the Tuesday open thread where you pick the topics. Have fun and stay warm. I'll check in later in the day.

Some stuff I'm reading:

• Media Matters challenges Chris Matthews' statements on Hardball yesterday touting Rudy Giuliani. I happened to catch that segment and just shook my head. Thanks to MM for the real facts.

• Judi Nathan Giuliani touts Rudy's testosterone and his loving side (gag reflex inducing) (hat tip Raw Story)

• Ted Haggard says he's completely heterosexual, he never was gay, just acting out.

It's official. Scooter Libby may not testify at his trial. His lawyers filed a brief tonight (pdf) in connection with yet another sealed request for classified materials, trying to convince the court that Libby's memory failure defense -- the part that is based on how busy he was due to the urgent national security matters he was involved in -- should come into evidence even if he doesn't take the stand. They say that making him testify in order to present his memory defense would force him to choose between his 5th Amendment right to remain silent and his 6th Amendment right to counsel.

They state in a footnote that on September 27, 2006, in connection with the fight over classified materials, Team Libby told the court it was "very likely" Libby would testify but did not promise he would. They point out that other courts have ruled that both sides can present circumstantial evidence as to a defendant's state of mind. They argue that Fitz has repeatedly presented circumstantial evidence at trial of Libby's state of mind.

They want to introduce three categories of national security evidence to show Libby was confused or mistaken, but did not intentionally lie:

Embattled San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom will undergo alcohol treatment:

Just days after disclosing his affair with a staff member married to one of his top political aides, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom admitted Monday he has a drinking problem and said he would seek treatment for alcohol abuse.

[Background here.]

...."Upon reflection with friends and family this weekend, I have come to the conclusion that I will be a better person without alcohol in my life," he said in the three-paragraph statement. "I take full responsibility for my personal mistakes, and my problems with alcohol are not an excuse for my personal lapses in judgment."

Apparently, there have been prior signs of alcohol-related problems for the Mayor:

Why isn't Patrick Fitzgerald calling WaPo reporter Walter Pincus as a witness in the Scooter Libby trial?

We now know from the grand jury testimony and briefs (pdf) that Scooter Libby was a source for Walter Pincus's June 12, 2003 article on Wilson's trip to Africa. On October 12, 2003, Pincus wrote:

On July 12, two days before Novak’s column, a Post reporter was told by an administration official that the White House had not paid attention to the former ambassador’s CIA-sponsored trip to Niger because it was set up as a boondoggle by his wife, an analyst with the agency working on weapons of mass destruction. Plame’s name was never mentioned and the purpose of the disclosure did not appear to be to generate an article, but rather to undermine Wilson’s report.

Fitz writes in a footnote to his brief filed Sunday,

Defendant testified before the grand jury that he could have been a source for Walter Pincus’s June 12, 2003 article, and that it was during preparation for providing information to Mr. Pincus that the Vice President informed him that former Ambassador Wilson’s wife worked at the CIA. 3/5/04 GJ Tr. at 60-63.

Pincus expanded on what the Administration official told him in this July, 2005 article.

Sex offender registration began as a way to keep track of predators. Eager to appear tough on crime, many state legislators have pushed to expand registry membership to include sex offenders who are unlikely threats. Young adults who have sex with their minor girlfriends or boyfriends exemplify the kind of defendants who pose no threat to the general population, and who do not deserve the stigma of sex offender registration.

A judge who agrees with that reasonable philosophy tried to mete out justice to a 20 year old defendant by staying his felony conviction for 100 years, a creative way to assure that the young man would never have to register. The judge probably knew he’d be reversed – and reversed he was – but the judge at least made a statement that caught the public’s attention.

[Judge] Kirk said Thursday his opinion of the sex registry requirement, because of its lack of discretion, remains unchanged. ... "It is a travesty in my opinion that we are destroying a significant cadre of our young people because the law doesn't discriminate between those that are there because of youthful misadventure or those that are true sex offenders," Kirk said.

Glenn Greenwald links to a remarkable piece by Jeff Goldberg in the New Yorker on the lyingest liar in Washington, DC, Joe Lieberman. While Glenn basically exposes that Joe Lieberman is Marty Peretz's bigot twin:

Joe Lieberman believes, accurately, that he can openly praise Mark Steyn's foreign policy "theories" (embraced just as enthusiastically by the right-wing blogosphere and Marty Peretz) because -- while everyone to the left of The New Republic is deemed to be a fringe, untouchable radical -- there is no such thing as a right-wing pundit too extreme or pernicious to be declared out of the mainstream.

Jeff Goldberg demonstrates, again, what a liar Lieberman is:

Ed Kilgore responds to my take on Iraq/Iran priorities:

I see no particular evidence that congressional Dems are folding their tents on Iraq. . . . As for the initial question of how progressive bloggers should think about these tangled questions, I don't quite see how worrying about a new war keeps anyone from stopping the old one . . . So let a few bloggers try to walk and chew gum at the same time.

Today, the level headed blogger at TPM says:

The 'surge' and the accompanying political jousting surrounding it is important. But it pales in importance compared to the possibility of drifting or getting gamed into a shooting war with Iran. This is what Congress really needs to get on top of right now.

You were saying Ed? Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi said:

And [Pelosi] told lawmakers that "if it appears likely that Bush wants to take the country to war against Iran, the House would take up a bill to deny him the authority to do so," the Post quoted Pelosi spokesman Brendan Daly as saying.

At least Tom Vilsack has his priorities straight. Because our level headed bloggers have taken the bait.

Seven hours of Scooter Libby's grand jury testimony is now being played for the jury. Swopa is live-blogging over at Firedoglake.

Fitzgerald filed transcripts of these 20 pages (pdf) of his testimony as an exhibit in May, 2006. His argument to go along with the transcripts is here.

Start with page 4 and the section, "The Annotated Wilson Op Ed is Relevant to Establish that Defendant’s Immediate Superior Was Concerned that Mr. Wilson Was Sent on a Junket by his Wife, and Communicated His Concern to Defendant."

Fitz will use this section as context for Russert being his closing witness, after the tape playing is finished. Fitz writes Libby told the grand jury

Tom Vilsack, current Presidential candidate and former Iowa Governor AND DLC Chairman has called for an immediate cutoff of Iraq war funding:

Congress has the constitutional responsibility and a moral duty to cut off funding for the status quo," said Vilsack. "Not a cap — an end. Not eventually — immediately."

Kudos to Tom Vilsack. He has earned my respect and my attention.

Actor Ryan O'Neal was arrested for assault with a deadly weapon over the weekend. He had been out with former girlfriend Farrah Fawcett, celebrating her 60th birthday and her recent diagnosis she is now cancer free.

Son Griffin and his pregnant girlfriend were home when they returned. According to Ryan, Griffin attacked with a fire poker, grazing him and hitting his girlfriend in the head. He fled upstairs and got his gun, heard Griffin approaching and fired a shot into the bannister.

So, if Ryan's version is accurate, he gets arrested for assault with a deadly weapon for aiming at a bannister (not his son) and Griffin, who assaulted his pregnant girlfriend with a fire poker, requiring brief hospitalization, doesn't get arrested?

Stay tuned.