I don't think Bush will make any decision on a pardon for Scooter Libby before Judge Walton rules on the Appeal bond, and if denied, before the D.C. Court of Appeals reviews the bond decision. The White House said as much today.

The White House indicated today Bush will not act before Libby's appeal of his conviction is decided. I think that will take about a year.

Bush always says he doesn't want to interfere with the legal process. So that puts us at about June, 2008. Bush has until his last day in office in January, 2009 to issue the pardon.

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I've received this by e-mail from Joe and Valerie Wilson's representative and thought I'd share:

As Americans, both Valerie and I are grateful that justice has been served, reconfirming that our country remains a nation of laws.

We are also saddened for the pain that Mr. Libby has inflicted on his family, friends, and the nation. Mr. Libby benefited from the best this country had to offer: the finest schools, a lucrative career as a lawyer and many years of service in Republican administrations. That he would knowingly lie, perjure himself and obstruct a legitimate criminal investigation is incomprehensible.

It is our hope that he will now cooperate with Special Counsel Fitzgerald in his efforts to get to the truth. As Mr. Fitzgerald has said, a cloud remains over the Vice President.

Every official in this administration must be held accountable for their actions.

Update: Jason Leopold has this new on camera interview (pre-sentencing) with Joe Wilson.

Kevin Drum notes the falloff in support of the Democratic Congress in the wake of the Iraq Supplemental and joins the extreme prosyletizers:

This is water under the bridge at this point, but I think congressional Dems blew it by caving in to Bush on the war supplemental so quickly. . . If Democrats want to be taken seriously on national security, they need to be serious about national security. Sticking to their guns on Iraq is the place to start. Hesitation and indecision never won the public's support for anything.

Still, Kevin makes a curious and I think, inaccurate, statement:

In light of the sentence imposed by Judge Reggie Walton today on the former Cheney Chief of Staff Lewis I. "Scooter" Libby, what I wonder about is what is Vice President Cheney thinking today. Despite what some of us say, clearly Scooter Libby has done some good things in his life. He was not a person naturally inclined to perjury and obstruction of justice. But, to protect Dick Cheney, that is precisely what he did.

To me at least, the genesis of the outing of Valerie Plame was Cheney's reaction to the May 6, 2003 Nicholas Kristof column, where Joe Wilson was Kristof's principal source. For reasons still not clear, Cheney went ballistic about it and ordered a full court press to discredit the report. This included finding out "who sent Wilson" and then, trying to spread the word that Wilson was not credible (the logic is not clear why this would be discrediting) because "his wife sent him." Of course, to forward the charges of nepotism and boondoggles, it was necessary to reveal that Valerie Plame worked at the CIA.

Cheney was not deterred. Libby was ordered to do what he had to do.

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Update: They are now arguing the issue of bond pending appeal. I didn't think they would do that before the Notice of Appeal and a formal motion for bond pending appeal was filed. Marcy is covering the arguments. I still think Libby will get a voluntary surrender, meaning he doesn't go in today, regardless of whether an appeal bond is granted.

Update: Libby stays out of jail for now. The Probation Department has to recalculate the guidelines grouping the obstruction, perjury and false statement charge. The judge has stayed imposition of the sentence. No decision on bond pending appeal today or voluntary surrender today, but Libby goes home. Briefs will be filed on the appeal bond issue, it will be heard a week from Thursday at 1:30.

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Update: 30 months for Scooter Libby. $250,000. in fines.(CNN) Questions: Where did he ask to do his time? What's the voluntary surrender date?

Note: CNN is erroneously reporting Libby also got 2 years probation. It's supervised release, not probation. Supervised release replaced parole in the federal system in 1987. Probation and supervised release may be similar, but they are not the same.

Via Marcy at Firedoglake, Ted Wells has finished his argument for departures and a non-guideline sentence. Libby just spoke to the court:

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Here Here are the 373 pages of the sentencing letters submitted on behalf of Scooter Libby. I've broken them down into four parts.

• Letters, Part 1
• Letters, Part 2
• Letters, Part 3
• Letters, Part 4

Update: CNN: 30 months for Scooter Libby. Libby goes home. No ruling on appeal bond.

10:00 ET: The Judge is hearing legal arguments over the application of the federal sentencing guidelines to I. "Lewis" Scooter Libby.

Marcy is live-blogging at Firedoglake (Part 1 here, Part II here.) Judge Walton seems to agree with the Government that the cross-referencing guidelines are appropriate for at least the obstruction of justice count. All agree they don't apply to the false statement charge.

That's bad for Libby. His lawyer, Bill Jeffress, is now arguing that Valerie Plame was not covert, which is just wrong. She was covert.

10:11 am ET

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I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby gets sentenced today. While the Government is asking for 30 to 37 months, the U.S. Probation Department calculated his sentencing guidelines at 15 to 21 months, and advised the Judge that departures from the Guidelines, which would result in a lower sentence, should be considered.

Among the reasons Libby is arguing for a lesser sentence:

• His record of public service
• His loss of his law license
• His financial loss due to legal expenses. It appears he is also asking the court to consider the legal fees to be incurred with civil suits filed against him.
• Non-likelihood of recidivism.
• Aberrant Behavior (a single act or course of action in an otherwise unblemished life)

The 160 letters written by friends of Scooter will be released to the media after the sentencing.

Jane and Marcy will be on scene and live-blogging from the courthouse for Firedoglake. I recommend getting live coverage and updates from them, as I will be here in Denver and reacting to news as it's available, rather than reporting it firsthand.

My last prediction, which I have no reason to change, is here.

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David Brooks tomorrow:

The continuing U.S. mistake is an unwillingness to see Iraqi reality sociologically, from the ground up.

David Brooks in April 2003:

I think you've begun to see a couple things. One, you've begun to see Iraqis who are jubilant and happy in the cities where they do know they're liberated. If you've read the last few days of the New York Times, you've really seen some exultant crowds, including one who had to me, the slogan of the war, a happy Iraqi fellow who went up to the troops and screamed out, democracy, whiskey and sexy . . .

Democracy, whiskey and sexy . . . David Brooks' reality based view of Iraq. What a dishonest man.

What the angriest proselytizers on the left and right have in common is a conviction that their political parties will commit hara-kiri if they don’t adhere to their bases’ strict ideological orders. “If Democrats do not stick to their guns on Iraq,” a blogger at TalkLeft.com warns, there will be “serious political consequences in 2008.” . . . -Frank Rich

The Democrats in Congress have lost much of the leadership edge they carried out of the 2006 midterm election, with the lack of progress in Iraq being the leading cause. . . . Six weeks ago the Democrats held a 24-point lead over Bush as the stronger leadership force in Washington; today that's collapsed to a dead heat. The Democrats' overall job approval rating likewise has dropped, from a 54 percent majority to 44 percent now -- with the decline occurring almost exclusively among strong opponents of the Iraq War. - ABC News

Call them "idiot liberals" if that is your fancy. I call them voters.

I've seen the trailers for the new movie "Knocked Up" and what I remembered about it was that it was from the director of "The Forty Year Old Virgin." The last thing I would have guessed is that the movie would be seriously debated as pro-choice or anti-choice. But so it goes. Here's Ezra:

The early efforts of folks on both the Right and the Left to brand the movie pro-life were discomfiting. Some in my group seemed genuinely distressed that the main character didn't choose an abortion, and were ready to write off the film for that initial bit of betrayal. I found that baffling. The flick is pro-choice in the most literal sense of the term. Katherine Heigl's character receives advice in both directions, and then makes a decision -- a decision the audience may very well conclude is the wrong one. But she has a choice; nothing is forced on her . . . [T]hat's a perfectly allowable, and indeed respectable, decision within the choice framework.

Of course everyone knows this. The word choice means, um, choice. But this is not the first time abortion has gone to the movies. The last time was a bit more high brow however. It involved the film adaptation of John Irving's book "The Cider House Rules." Here is an excellent 2000 discussion of the issue of abortion and the movies from Amy Goodman's Democracy Now program. THIS discussion delves into the issue of the taboo in film and TV regarding abortion. We have not come a long way baby since Maude had to make her choice in the 1970s.

Via CREW, Louisiana Congressman William Jefferson has been indicted on corruption charges. The indictment is here.

Two of his associates have pleaded guilty and turned against him.

Among the charges listed in the indictment, said the official, are racketeering, soliciting bribes, wire fraud, money-laundering, obstruction of justice, conspiracy and violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

....Jefferson is accused of soliciting bribes for himself and his family, and also for bribing a Nigerian official.

Some of TalkLeft's prior coverage is here and here.