Nathan Newman writes:

My worry is whether [Obama] is really mobilizing them on the content of his substantive message or just the vagueness of "change" in a time when people are angry and distressed. I'm not annoyed like some at his "post-partisanship" message, since the best way to build a big partisan majority is to assert this kind of non-partisan inclusiveness. No, the concern is that the ideas and policies filling his "change" message actually connect with people beyond momentary distress to shape a real analysis of what's wrong with the nation.

I am not sure I understand or agree with Nathan's distinctions here between message and partisanship. I believe that the way to make substantive change in policy is to get folks to agree with your message and policy by voting for you and your political party.

[More...]

Iowa is behind us. This was a great experience and I want to thank the readers who sent in donations to help with the cost. (It was expensive.)

I won't be going to New Hampshire but Big Tent and I will blog about it anyway.

I'll also be returning to blogging about crime and injustice issues.

I'm leaving for the airport now. I have to say, cold as it was, Iowa is a fine place to visit with very nice people. It was a pleasure to be here.

This is an open thread, all topics.

Update [2008-1-4 12:7:33 by Big Tent Democrat]: Jeralyn did a fantastic job giving us on the ground coverage. I think we owe her some support for her great efforts. I urge you to contribute to TalkLeft to thank Jeralyn for her wonderful efforts.

Via Atrios and Kevin Drum, Charlie Peters argues Obama knows how to enact progressive policies:

Consider a bill into which Obama clearly put his heart and soul. The problem he wanted to address was that too many confessions, rather than being voluntary, were coerced — by beating the daylights out of the accused....The bill itself aroused immediate opposition. ....He responded with an all-out campaign of cajolery....The police proved to be Obama's toughest opponent, [but] by showing officers that he shared many of their concerns, even going so far as to help pass other legislation they wanted, he was able to quiet the fears of many. Obama proved persuasive enough that the bill passed both houses of the legislature, the Senate by an incredible 35 to 0. Then he talked Blagojevich into signing the bill, making Illinois the first state to require such videotaping.

Like Kevin, color me unimpressed. This was Illinois. This was a Democratic Governor. As Kevin says, the vote was 35-0 so how much opposition could there have been? Archpundit argues there was vehement opposition. Well, no apparently there was not VEHEMENT opposition. I'll go even further, who did Obama win over on S-CHIP? On Iraq? On anything in the Congress?

Heck, this gives me even more pause because he probably thinks he CAN do it in Washington.

Joe Klein claims Obama's win was over the angry Dem base and vitriolic bloggers:

Iowa's decision was about style, not substance. Obama didn't offer many new ideas and precious few that were different from his opponents'. He offered civility. At one point, Clinton tried "Turn Up The Heat" as her slogan and, throughout, John Edwards' rhetoric was so hot that it eventually burned him to a cinder. Obama's unspoken slogan was "Turn Down the Heat." The blogger Daily Kos endorsed Obama at first then, frustrated by the lack of fire, un-endorsed him. The far left wing of the Democratic Party may have to rethink the value of vitriol now.

Now Joe Klein is a particularly obtuse member of the Media who has fought his battles with the bloggers and thinks everything is about him. And He is wrong in saying that Markos endorsed Obama (though I did and I did unendorse him at the end; but I am pretty sure Klein has never heard of me). But this is a theme the Media and High Broderists will adopt.

This is in line with my earlier concerns about the message of the Obama victory.

ARG, which actually has a pretty good track record in New Hampshire, shows Obama AND Clinton up strongly from their previous poll:

Clinton 35 (31)
Obama 31 (27)
Edwards 15 (21)
Richardson 5 (5) (1/1 -1/3)

I expect Clinton to drop and Obama to continue to rise in the next days. The next big event is the debate tomorrow. that could change the momentum.

Edwards is toast imo, barring some kind of miracle in the debate. Richardson was toast long ago. Why is he still in the race? Go out gracefully Bill.

McCain (35) up 10 over Romney (25) who is on life support it seems. Huck in third with 12. Rudy is done. cooked. Finished.

The Iowa entrance polls demonstrate that Barack Obama had wide appeal across Democrats, Independents, Republicans, conservatives, moderates and liberals. What is most interesting is that his strongest appeal was with self indentified Independents, Republicans AND the liberal and very liberal.

What to make of this? Some say it shows that Obama was perceived as a strong progressive. Some say it shows that Obama is selling progressivism to Independents and Republicans.

I have a different take. I think it shows that Obama is able to convince people that he agrees with them or that his views are not anathema to them. How did he do it? I believe he did it by blurring his policy views, which are largely mainstream Democratic. Indeed, I find that Obama's views match up with my own more than any other candidate.

More . . .

Todd Beeton of MYDD is on the ground in New Hampshire and providing some excellent reporting. Here is his report from a Clinton event in Nashua:

More....

Bumped

Just had to post this. I hate Tweety and the I hate the trashing the Media gives Hillary. So I do not care for the smug joy the Media takes in her loss tonight.

Buuuuut . . . I DO love that the Broder/Bloomberg Unity 08 conference in Oklahoma next week is now in shambles. Think Broder will write it up?

Update [2008-1-4 13:31:39 by Big Tent Democrat]: Kevin Drum remarks on Iowa: [More...]

The candidates from both parties will debate in New Hampshire Saturday night. From ABC News (received by e-mail.)

On Saturday, January 5, 2008, ABC News, Facebook, and ABC affiliate WMUR will team up for a historic debate night. Republican and Democratic contenders for the White House will meet on stage in two separate events, both in primetime, and presented by ABC News.

Richardson is still in. The participants for the Democratic debate will be as follows:

Senator Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.
Former Senator John Edwards, D-N.C.
Senator Barack Obama, D-Ill.
Governor Bill Richardson, D-N.M.

The Republicans: [More...]

According to E.J. Dionne:

Change, particularly generational change, was also at the heart of Barack Obama's victory over Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards. . . . Obama's theme of ending partisan divisions by reaching out to independents and Republicans may be an enduring legacy of the evening . . .

According to David Brooks:

[Obama] talks about erasing old categories like red and blue (and implicitly, black and white) and replacing them with new categories, of which the most important are new and old. He seems at first more preoccupied with changing thinking than changing legislation. . . Obama is changing the tone of American liberalism, and maybe American politics, too.

It was not a victory for progressive policy seems the conclusion but for unity and tone. It is ironic to me that John Edwards and Joe Trippi claim to be on the winning side last night. If Brooks and Dionne are correct, the big SUBSTANTIVE loser last night was John Edwards. Brooks writes: [More...]

In just 4 short days, New Hampshire voters will be voting for Presidential nominees. The results in Iowa will loom large for Democrats at least. Does Huckabee benefit at all? I would think so myself. But the Media is behind McCain so we will see.

Barack Obama will be the prohibitve favorite to win New Hampshire. Even though today's Zogby poll of New Hampshire has this result:

Clinton 32
Obama 26
Edwards 20

This was pre-Iowa. Obama is ahead today. There seems to me be only one scenario which imperils Obama in New Hampshire - a full court press, pun intended, for McCain. The Media WANTS McCain. And if McCain gets Independents to come out for him in large numbers (after all, Hillary has already been knocked down, do they need to knock her down again?), that hurts Obama. [More....]

Texas leads the nation in executions by a wide margin. It should therefore be concerning that Texas appears to lead the nation in wrongful convictions.

Since 2001, DNA tests have exonerated at least 30 wrongfully convicted inmates in Texas, the most of any state, according to the Innocence Project, a New York-based legal clinic that seeks to uncover wrongful convictions.

Another victim of a bungled Texas prosecution, Charles Chatman, is expected to be released today after serving more than 26 years in prison for a rape that he has always denied committing. He was convicted after the complaining witness picked him from a photo array -- a notoriously unreliable identification procedure. DNA testing established his likely innocence.