DemfromCt, the daily kos Contributing Editor, has always given pollsters a regard they simply do not deserve. This is reflected in his post on the excuse making from pollsters on their New Hampshire debacle. His post takes seriously all the excuse making they present and ignores what is obvious to anyone who can avoid buying the pollster spin - the Media Misogyny galvanized women voters to support Hillary. Instead Dem buys into this nonsense:

The "Wilder Effect (aka the Bradley effect)." This is worth a good look. Kohut raises this in his NY Times article from his own experiences a few years back with David Dinkins, running in NYC for mayor (he's the undistinguished Giuliani predecessor)

More . . .

Taylor Marsh provides the key clip:

Speaking for me only.

Besides the typical Russertian ripping of statements out of context, the topic that was most interesting to me was the discussion of Iraq and the records of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on Iraq.

First things first, Hillary's now familiar explanation of her vote - that she was not voting for war, she was voting to get the inspectors again - does not wash. She cites statements by the Bush Administration that it was not a vote for war, and those statements were made of course, but any rational being knew that was just cover talk. It WAS a vote for war and we all knew it.

Barack Obama stood tall in that moment and argued forcefully AGAINST war and against voting for the Iraq War Resolution. Barack Obama was clearly superior in judgment to Hillary Clinton at that moment.

Now when it comes to evaluating Barack Obama's actions after, including his statements in 2004 saying he did not know how he would have voted if he had been in the Senate, it is clear that Bill Clinton's descriptions of Obama's actions is completely accurate. Greg Sargent has the quote where Obama says he does not know how he would have voted: [More...]

For anyone up early enough to watch, this morning's news shows include:

• Meet the Press: Hillary Clinton
• CNN's Late Edition: John Edwards, Huckabee, Romney
• Face the Nation: Huckabee and Romney
• Fox News Sunday: Giuliani

Chris Matthews: assorted media pundits, no candidates, just spin.

With the news and bloggers returning to a discussion of immigration this weekend as the Democratic candidates vie for the Latino and Hispanic vote (more here) and the Republican candidates try to show they are the toughest on the undocumented, here's ten point immigration reform plan TalkLeft supports:

1. We need a comprehensive program that allows undocumented immigrants from all nationalities and living in the U.S. to obtain legal permanent residency.

2. Future immigrants should also be able to come here legally and safely, have access to permanent residency, and not fear criminal prosecution for unlawful entry or exit.

3. Immigrant workers’ rights should be promoted and protected; employer sanctions and the criminalization of work must be ended. Labor laws should be strictly enforced, and immigrant workers should have the freedom to join unions to improve wages and working conditions.

4. The human rights of all immigrants should be respected in the enforcement of immigration laws throughout the U.S. and at the nation’s borders.

5. Immigrants should be able to adjust their status and reunite with families in a fair and timely way. [More...]

Despite a severe budget shortage, Arizona is set to begin prosecuting 40 to 60 "apprehended migrants" a day.

This is a very expensive program that is unlikely to be a deterrent.

Even with only 40 prosecutions a day, expenses will likely add up to millions of dollars a year for housing, transporting, prosecuting and defending those who are charged.

While a higher number of arrests clearly occur daily in the Tucson sector, trying to prosecute many more on a daily basis clearly would overwhelm the system, various federal officials say.

On the impact: [More....]

Calling George Orwell.

The Independent (UK) reports:

Ministers are planning to implant "machine-readable" microchips under the skin of thousands of offenders as part of an expansion of the electronic tagging scheme that would create more space in British jails. Amid concerns about the security of existing tagging systems and prison overcrowding, the Ministry of Justice is investigating the use of satellite and radio-wave technology to monitor criminals.

But, instead of being contained in bracelets worn around the ankle, the tiny chips would be surgically inserted under the skin of offenders in the community, to help enforce home curfews.The tags, labelled "spychips" by privacy campaigners, are already used around the world to keep track of dogs, cats, cattle and airport luggage, but there is no record of the technology being used to monitor offenders in the community. The chips are also being considered as a method of helping to keep order within prisons.

Civil liberties groups and probation officers in Britain are outraged. [More...]

Todd Beeton reporting on an Obama event in Nevada:

[I]mmigration, as you might expect, is going to be a big issue in Nevada, as it was not in NH. . . . There were two distinct schools of thought represented in the audience, a nativist demo and an immigrant demo and Barack threaded the needle quite ably when he said he supports a path to citizenship but that it's not fair to give them special priv[i]leges, the undocumented population must pay a fine and "must learn English!" That last one got a huge reaction. . . .

(Emphasis supplied.) Perhaps it becomes less surprising to learn, as Taylor Marsh reports, Latinos are firmly behind Hillary:

There is not only "no exodus," but Clinton Hispanic support is mushrooming. Leaders in that community are actively engaged for Clinton here and today had to mean a lot to all of them. Hispanic leaders that the community respect showed up, including local politicians.

One of the reasons I have tepidly supported Obama was because he was not playing to the nativist crowd. It seems that, again, I may have been mistaken.

The good news is no one was hurt. The odd news is the disparate versions about the mishap.

First, ABC News: The headline is "Obama's Plane Strikes Parked Plane on Runway"

From the text of the article:

At 2:45 a.m. Central Time, the Gulfstream 2 plane that carried Obama, nine other passengers and two crew members struck a parked Cessna 208 general aviation plane, which can carry 10 to 12 passengers.

There was minor damage to the wings of both aircraft, although no one on either of the planes was injured.

It then gives this background:

Before leaving his Las Vegas event that evening, Obama commented that he only had one hour to speak to the crowd, so his pilot wouldn't get "cut off" and so he wouldn't get in trouble with his wife. Obama will be in Chicago today, enjoying a prescheduled day off with his family.

Compare The Swamp, from the Chicago Tribune:

More....

There are still three contenders for the Democratic nomination. The third, John Edwards, hasn't been getting much press lately.

He's been campaigning in South Carolina, reminding people he was born there and understands their problems. A few hundred people turned out to hear him at one event today. As to being behind in the polls, he says:

....he was in fourth place at this time in 2004, and went on to win the state.

I've received a few e-mails asking me when the blog is going to resume coverage of crime and injustice issues. A typical complaint:

There are civil liberties violations, judicial
decisions, the conviction and death of the
innocent...Isn't that worth a little discussion?

Here's the response I just sent to the sender of the most recent one.

In the past two days, I've written posts about the sixth anniversary of Guantanamo detentions and the ACLU's "close Guantanamo" campaign, yesterday's federal court decision throwing out four detainees' lawsuits against Rumsfeld and other military officials, Marion Jones being sentenced to 6 months for lying about steroid use, O.J. Simpson's arrest and jailing pending a bail revocation hearing, a federal judge's decision to stop a planned deportation to Egypt because of possible torture there, delays in implementing the Real ID Act, a PA exonerated death row inmate who will receive $4 million compensation, and the Supreme Court oral arguments in the Voter ID law case.

I don't think I've ever left the topics of crime and injustice. There's just additional coverage of the primaries now, because it's primary season.

Suggestion: If you think the coverage is all political, just scroll down the front page of 15 posts and if you want more, click on the link to the previous 15 posts. You'll see it is not. We just write a lot here.

This really doesn't bother me. Not nearly so much as thinking Rudy Giuliani could get the Republican nomination.

If Mr. Huckabee can continue to galvanize evangelicals around his novel message while attracting other Republicans and perhaps independents, he will do more than advance his own campaign. He will also challenge the establishment of the Christian conservative political movement.

Young evangelicals are not only flocking to Huckabee but using grass-roots and net-roots to fundraise for him.

In Michigan, the Huckabee campaign had spent no money, hired no staff and had no office until last Wednesday, six days before the primary. But Gary Glenn, a conservative Christian advocate based in Midland, Mich., has been leading an informal effort to turn out evangelical voters. Some pollsters expect them to make up as much as 40 percent of the state’s primary voters this year. [More...]

Tristero at Digby's Hullabaloo goes off on Mike Huckabee today for his Wayne Dumond pardon. It's in the news again because of an anti-Huckabee ad by a 527 group.

Wayne Dumond's attorney, John Wesley Hall, who writes as Last Night in Little Rock at TalkLeft and I have taken a different view of the case from a legal perspective. We have provided the legal grounds upon which Huckabee might have believed Dumond should have been released -- and the argument that Huckabee succombed to anti-Clinton forces.

• Mike Huckabee's Tangled Web
• Huckabee and Wayne Dumond: Interview With Dumond's Attorney
  
• Huckabee and Dumond: Succumbing to the Anti-Clinton Zealots

And then, there's Mike Huckabee's Other Pardons. As I wrote there,

[More...]