ABC News has a pretty thorough analysis of the status of things in Texas, and which way different demographics are breaking.

There's three problems for Hillary in Texas, and they don't sound small.

• 1/3 of the delegates will be awarded based on a caucus held at the conclusion of the primary.

• Delegates are apportioned partially by Democratic voter turnout in prior elections

• The primary is open to Independents

The significance: Obama does better in caucuses and primaries where Independents can vote.

The places with the greater amount of liberal and African American voters (Dallas, Houston, Austin) had greater voter turnout than the Latino communities in prior years, so even if Hillary gets a great Latino turnout, she won't score as many delegates. [More...]

By Big Tent Democrat

Via TPM, it's semi-official, Hillary Clinton has to win Texas and Ohio:

If she wins Texas and Ohio I think she will be the nominee; if you don't then I don't think she can. It's all on you," the former president told the audience at the beginning of his speech.

Of course, Obama and his supporters do not agree with the first part but certainly we all agree with the second part.

Texas and Ohio are the last stand.

By Big Tent Democrat:

Predictably, I find this statement, via Media Matters, from Bill O'Reilly utterly offensive:

In a discussion of recent comments made by Michelle Obama[,] O'Reilly . . . stated: "I don't want to go on a lynching party against Michelle Obama unless there's evidence, hard facts, that say this is how the woman really feels. . . .

(Emphasis supplied.) Yes, predictably, I find the comment racist and offensive. I am a PC cop.

Predictably, Daily Kos notices.

By Big Tent Democrat

Channeling Howard Beale from the movie "Network," [ yelled into the microphone, "Give me a break! I've got news for all the latte-drinking, Prius- driving, Birkenstock-wearing, trust fund babies crowding in to hear him speak! This guy won't last a round against the Republican attack machine. He's a poet, not a fighter."

There is quite a bit of irony in the complaint, as the Left blogs have been regurgitating Right Wing talking points about Bill and Hillary Clinton this entire campaign.

Later today.

Teamster President James P. Hoffa plans to meet with Obama in Austin, Texas, before an announcement is made. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the planned public announcement.

The Teamsters has 1.4 million members. More importantly for Obama,

They also are a potent source of campaign cash and get-out-the-vote workers for Democrats.

By Big Tent Democrat

Matt Stoller is chock full of ideas for negatively branding John McCain:

I've been doing some calling around to political insiders I know, many of whom are doing serious research on the 2008 election, to figure out how to brand McCain. . . . Everyone I've spoken with believes that the holy grail of branding seems to be associating McCain strongly with Bush. . . . A backdoor way to frame McCain as a Bush-like candidate is to portray him as old, part of the politics of the past, and angry. He's quite vulnerable on his temper and age, and women in particular revolt against his treatment of his first wife (whom he left for a younger wealthy woman after she got into an accident). McCain is definitely open to attack on the economy, and voters are quite willing to believe he is going to continue the Bush economic legacy of tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy. So old, angry, addicted to war, and part of the past seems to be the consensus narrative on McCain.

This begs the question - does Barack Obama do negative branding? And if so, can he also work on negatively branding the entire GOP?

A must-read today: Russ Tuttle reports on the planned Guantanamo military commission trials in The Nation:

Now, as the murky, quasi-legal staging of the Bush Administration's military commissions unfolds, a key official has told The Nation that the trials are rigged from the start. According to Col. Morris Davis, former chief prosecutor for Guantánamo's military commissions, the process has been manipulated by Administration appointees in an attempt to foreclose the possibility of acquittal.

This is mind-boggling: Pentagon Chief Counsel William Haynes told Davis there can be no acquittals: [More...]

Since the networks cut it off, here's the text of Hillary's new speech delivered in Youngstown, Ohio last night.

It seems to me the most prominent issue in the campaigns is now NAFTA and that it will be as important in Ohio as it was in Wisconsin.

Admittedly, it's an issue I know nothing about. But the sense I get from the media is that Obama has gained an edge on the issue by bashing Hillary because Bill Clinton pushed for NAFTA.

Last night, Hillary released a four point specific plan to fix the problems of NAFTA. It's in her speech and reprinted below and my questions are, what is Obama's specific plan, how does it differ from Hillary's and do they really differ on the issue? [More...]

Funniest moment on tv last night. From Hardball. TX state senator Kirk Watson gets grilled by Chris Matthews:

Lots of folks in the comments last night criticized Hillary Clinton because she didn't congratulate Barack Obama on his win in Wisconsin in her speech. Huffington Post reports she called him after the speech to congratulate him. His press secretary confirms this.

And, while her speech contained some criticism Obama, it was nothing compared to that of her introductory speaker, Machinists Union President Tom Buffenbarger. Via Ken Vogel at Politico:

He also compared Obama with "Janus, the two-faced god" of Roman mythology. He called him "silver tongued" and a "thespian" and "the man in love with the microphone."

"He’s not just a trained thespian, he’s a terrific shadow boxer. You know the type. Outside the ring, he pretends he can float like a butterfly and sting like a bee," he said. "But Barack Obama is no Muhammad Ali. He took a walk every time there was a tough vote in the Illinois state Senate. He took a walk more than 130 times. That’s what a shadow boxer does. All the right moves, all the right combinations, all the right footwork, but he never steps into the ring. He walks away from the fight.”

Vogel reports the union crowd loved it.

By Big Tent Democrat

Steve Soto writes:

[Obama] will not be . . . a nominee who can define differences between the parties. Obama seemingly only mentioned “Republicans” in the context of reaching out to them, while letting their leaders off the hook, as if the last seven years of graft, corruption, and circumvention of the Constitution were bipartisan in origin. Obama aimed his attack not against the party which controlled Washington for the better part of this decade and which controlled Congress for the better part of the 1990’s. Rather, he aimed his critique against both parties and Washington as a whole, as if Democrats are equally culpable for the country’s problems.

More...

By Big Tent Democrat

This Open Thread comes with an admonition, please stick to the topic discussed in posts. I for one have been writing very tight and focused posts to avoid acrimony today. You must respect my choices in my posts please. Jeralyn has the same policy for her posts.

Of course all the other rules regarding civility apply and and no personal attacks on the candidates or each other please.

This is an Open Thread. All topics welcome.