By Big Tent Democrat

Yes, I know this means SNL is so not cool anymore and that this is not funny and so on. Longer segment here. Now available at the NBC SNL site.

By Big Tent Democrat

Many of you are chomping at the bit to write about subjects not covered in the posts. Here is your chance. Keep your comments in other posts on topic please. This is an Open Thread.

And Go Gators! Beat the Bulldogs!

By Big Tent Democrat

Josh Marshall notes the obvious point to be drawn from these Survey USA polls:

The answers? Shockingly obvious: McCain crushes both (Hillary by 20%, Barack by 24%) Democrats in Alabama, while both crush him in California. To add another layer of symmetry, Clinton does 4 points better in losing in Alabama. And Obama does 4 points better in winning California.

For all the talk of 50 state strategies, this general election will be won or lost in the same states as in 2000 and 2004 - Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. While Obama may win Virginia and Iowa, that equals 19 electoral votes. He ain't winning in the South. Neither is Hillary, except for Arkansas.

It is great that Obama has energized Dems in Utah, Idaho and Alabama, but that is not going to be where he will be fighting in a general election. Which is why it would be nice if Obama could demonstrate an ability to win a big contested state like Ohio or Pennsylvania in the primaries. This is still where Presidential elections are won or lost.

By Big Tent Democrat

My Eschatonesque title is due to my linking this Atrios post:

Ralph

Who cares?

.38% in 2004.

I could get .38%.

MTP had no business putting Ralph Nader on. He is not newsworthy.

(Updated to include video). Comments now closed.)

Do not miss the You Tube of Tina Fey's commentary on Saturday Night Live last night when it comes out. It was incredible. My DD has a rough transcript of the last part.

Tina Fey:I want to say something about those calling Hillary a b*tch...

Yeah, well she is...So am I, so is she (pointing at Weekend Update news host Amy Poehler.) Deal with it.

B*tches get sh*t done (Amy says yeah and starts nodding her head in rhythmn and saying more yeahs,uuh huhs and a you go girl.)

Like back in grammar school, they could have had priests teaching you but no, they had tough old nuns who sleep on cots and can hit ya and you HATE those b*tches. But the end of the school year you sure knew the capital of Vermont

So come on....Its not too late Texas and Ohio, get on board... B*tch is the new Black!

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The Washington Post examines Barack Obama's prospects in November of winning the red states.

While Obama has shown an ability to reshape voting patterns, his record in the primaries suggests that he still has a ways to go in making significant inroads in Republican states.

The red states where he has won have tended to be in the Deep South, where victories were based on overwhelming support from African Americans, or in mostly white states in the Midwest and West, where he relied on a core of ardent backers to carry him in caucuses, which favor candidates with enthusiastic supporters. He has not fared as well in areas that fall in between, with populations that are racially diverse but lack a black population large enough to boost Obama to victory.

Tennessee is an example of the possible limits to Obama's broader appeal:

The New York Times reports on Barack Obama's campaign event in Austin, TX.

A touch of cockiness is discernable in his manner now; he is like a gambler convinced his every dice roll will come up double sixes.

He enumerates his critics' complaints about him. When he gets to "I'm not tough enough" he adds,

“Listen, I’m a black guy named Barack Obama running for president. You want to tell me that I’m not tough enough?” He smirks. “Shoot.”

[More...]

By Big Tent Democrat

Jamison Foser explains:

When The New York Times ran a 2,000-word article about the state of the Clintons' marriage in May of 2006, the paper passed on gossip about Bill Clinton and a Canadian politician named Belinda Stronach. . . . Chris Matthews, among others, loved -- loved -- the article. He discussed it again and again and again on Hardball. He -- approvingly -- described it as a warning from The New York Times to Clinton that "he better watch it" and "behave himself." . . .In short, Matthews did not criticize the Times article; he endorsed it.

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I guess Obama supporters don't support the right of other groups to get a message out to voters. (Background here.) Via the Wall St. Journal:

Three supporters of the Illinois Democrat mailed a complaint to the Federal Election Commission today charging that the pro-Clinton organization is violating election laws.

This is designed to create negative press for Hillary. How do we know that?

It is highly unlikely that the Obama supporters will get what they want from the FEC any time soon. For one, the FEC is notoriously slow. It took three years to settle similar complaints lodged against independent political entities that ran advertisements in the 2004 election.

For another: [More...]

By Big Tent Democrat

Via Chris Bowers, Obama "defends" liberalism. But Chris notices that Obama does not, um, actually defend liberalism:

How, exactly, is this considered defending the liberal label? I looked around for a transcript to see if there were other parts of the speech that I missed, but I was unable to find one. So, looking just at what NBC reporter Aswini Anburajan transcribed, I fail to see how this is in any way defending the "liberal" label. In fact, the transcription indicates that Obama is actually taking some of the more popular positions often associated with being "liberal" in America, and defining those positions as "common sense" instead of as "liberal." Further, in so doing, he appears to be defining himself as something other than a liberal. Overall, not only is that not defending the liberal label, but it seems to be draining the common American usage of the word liberal of many of its most positive aspects, and then distancing himself from being labeled a liberal. So, he distances himself from the term, and then makes the term seem even less appealing. How Aswini Anburajan interprets this as defending "liberal label" is beyond me.

How about that Chris? I am shocked that Obama denigrated liberalism. Aren't you? My question is how did Obama decide to discuss this anyway? What was that about?

Update: It's a do-over. They will hold another one at later date.

****

As noted earlier, the county delegates to the Nevada state convention were to be selected today. Those selected at local caucuses aren't binding. Both the Obama and Hillary camps did their best to get their delegates out today.

Most primaries and some Democratic caucuses are binding, meaning that national delegates won by the candidates must pledge to support them at the national convention this summer. Some high-profile caucuses, however, are just the beginning of a multistep process of selecting national convention delegates. In Nevada, precinct caucuses were held Jan. 19 to select delegates to county conventions this weekend. The county conventions will select delegates to the state convention in May.

The national delegates are elected at the state convention — the third step of the process. If all the delegates for each candidate show up at every step, the national delegates awarded Jan. 19 will remain unchanged. In Nevada, Obama won 13 delegates and Clinton won 12.

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By Big Tent Democrat

NYTimes Public Editor Clark Hoyt rips the McCain "story:"

The article was notable for what it did not say: It did not say what convinced the advisers that there was a romance. It did not make clear what McCain was admitting when he acknowledged behaving inappropriately — an affair or just an association with a lobbyist that could look bad. And it did not say whether Weaver, the only on-the-record source, believed there was a romance. The Times did not offer independent proof, like the text messages between Detroit’s mayor and a female aide that The Detroit Free Press disclosed recently, or the photograph of Donna Rice sitting on Gary Hart’s lap.

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