Update [2008-8-19 20:6:26 by Big Tent Democrat]: NBC says it does not matter, because Biden does not know if he is "the guy." And NBC reports Biden wlaks it back completely. Now we know. Biden IS the pick.

From First Read:

As Delaware Sen. Joe Biden left his home a few minutes ago, golf clubs in tow, he was asked where he was going to be on Saturday. Biden replied, "Here" and pointed down to his driveway. As he pulled out of the driveway in the driver's seat of his car he then said to the press gathered near his gate, "You guys have better things to do. I'm not the guy."

(Emphasis supplied.) Biden is not much of a game player on these things. When he says he is "not the guy," I believe him. That means Kaine is the guy. This is a terrible mistake by Obama imo. Not picking Clinton is ridiculous, but Biden gave Obama some cover. Kaine is inexperienced and a weak politician who will "reinforce" Obama's weakness.

If Kaine or Sebelius is the pick, I have to say I think Obama no longer is a shoo in and in fact is not much of a favorite anymore. An amazing turn of events I think. All Obama has to do to insure victory is pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate and he refuses to do it. Just amazing.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

While we're waiting for the LA Times poll results that Big Tent Democrat will write about, here's today's Quinnipiac poll:

American likely voters say 55 - 27 percent that Arizona Sen. John McCain is better qualified than Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to deal with Russia and now trails the Democrat 47 - 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

This compares to a 50 - 41 percent Sen. Obama lead in a July 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Even pro-Obama bloggers aren't happy with Obama's campaign strategy. Here's Josh Marshall: [More...]

For weeks, if not longer, it's been clear there is going to be a major infusion of religion into the Democratic National Convention.

Here's how it's being done. And why?

[it's] a mission to narrow the "G-d gap" between Democrats and Republicans by winning over religious voters who have flocked to the GOP over the last 20 years.

What do we do with them when they get here? Adopt their Republican views so we can keep them?

The DNCC just announced the following additional speakers to the Convention lineup and the gavel times.

Evan Bayh and Joe Biden are still on the list for Wednesday. Tim Kaine's name still doesn't appear anywhere. But, they stress more names are coming.

Joining the program on Monday, August 25th will be Former President Jimmy Carter; Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar; Miami Mayor Manny Diaz; Illinois state leaders Alexi Giannoulis, Dan Hynes, Lisa Madigan, and Tom Balanoff from Illinois SEIU; long-time Barack Obama mentor Jerry Kellman; NEA President Reg Weaver; AFT President Randi Weingarten; and NARAL Pro-Choice America President Nancy Keenan. The theme of Monday’s program is One Nation.

More...

Update [2008-8-19 17:23:39 by Big Tent Democrat]: LATimes poll has Obama 15 point lead evaporating, now up 2, 45-43.

Have no idea what "underperforming" is supposed to mean, but the LATimes blog says that is what its new poll shows Obama doing:

Which White House contender had the better summer? A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll of registered voters across the country leaves little doubt about the answer.

We can't reveal the precise figures yet; for that, check back at LATimes.com about 2 p.m. PDT (5 p.m. EDT). Suffice to say that the results will not alter the perception that -- given a seemingly sunny political climate for Democrats -- Barack Obama is under-performing nationally.

We'll see what it means at 5 EDT. I'll update this post then.

By Big Tent Democrat

Here are "the consequences":

NATO agreed after U.S. pressure on Tuesday to freeze regular contacts with Russia until Moscow had withdrawn its troops from Georgia in line with a peace deal. The alliance also agreed to upgrade contacts with Tbilisi but stopped short of accelerating its efforts to join NATO, an ambition which had enraged Russia even before the two-week-old conflict over Georgia's breakaway South Ossetia region.

(Emphasis supplied.) Here is the fun part, NATO's head Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said:

I should add that we certainly do not have the intention to close all doors in our communication with Russia," he said, after several European allies including Britain and Germany expressed doubts about cutting off links with Moscow.

More . . .

Sen. Barack Obama and his vice presidential running mate will attend a rally in Springfield, IL on Saturday. That's where Obama announced his candidacy.

More and more pundits are predicting Joe Biden. I think Obama would be smarter to pick Biden for Secretary of State than Vice President. Biden is the antithesis of change in Washington. He's been there since Nixon was President. Talk about getting sold a bill of goods.

Just what we don't need, a vice-president whose politics on crime are mired in the failed policies of the '80's.

So much for that progressive foreign policy you were expecting in an Obama Administration. Obama strikes a pose on the Russia-Georgia conflict:

I’m proud to join my friend, Senator Joe Biden, in calling for an additional $1 billion in reconstruction assistance for the people of Georgia."

Any money for South Ossetia in there? Or how about Joe Biden saying "Russia’s actions in Georgia will have consequences?” You on board with that Sen. Obama? Or his, via Greenwald and Billmon, vigorous lobbying for expanding NATO to Georgia? BTW, here is a part of an Obama speech Matt Yglesias admired:

I am running for President because I am sick and tired of Democrats thinking that the only way to look tough on national security is by talking, and acting, and voting like George Bush Republicans.

Now Joe Biden and John McCain are sounding good to Obama on foreign policy. Progressive foreign policy? We hardly knew ya.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

For those of you thinking you will be awash in free and great food at parties and other events at the Democratic National Convention, think again. The New York Times reports that due to new ethics laws, most places will only be able to serve small plates of finger food -- as a result, many venues are removing the chairs and forks will not be provided.

[T]his year, members of Congress attending the Democratic convention in Denver next week and the Republican gathering in St. Paul in September are facing a more down-market prospect: bare-bones receptions where food eaten with forks has given way to finger food, where chairs have been removed and where meatballs may be served but not something heartier, like a hamburger.

The law is the Honest Leadership and Open Government Act of 2007. It prevents lobbyists from providing meals, music and other gifts to Congressional members or their staff. [More...]

TalkLeft called attention to Clarence Elkins's wrongful conviction in 2005, while he was still serving time for a rape and murder he didn't commit. Elkins was able to obtain cigarette butts from the man he believed to be the real killer, Earl Mann, after Mann joined Elkins in prison while serving a sentence for a different crime. DNA testing made Mann a strong suspect in the murder.

Since then, Elkins obtained his freedom as well as a million dollar award for the seven years he served for his wrongful conviction. Yesterday, Mann entered a guilty plea to the rape and murder in exchange for the state's agreement not to pursue a death sentence. As for Elkins:

"I'm just glad that I can call it over," Elkins said after the plea hearing.

Elkins was lucky that DNA evidence from the crime scene had been preserved, and that he was able to obtain Mann's DNA. Less fortunate is Alphonso James, who may be innocent but can't rely on DNA testing to prove it. [more ...]

Via CNN, Al Gore has accepted a speaking role for Thursday night at the Democratic Convention, the same night Sen. Barack Obama will make his acceptance speech.

Unlike the hysterics we have seen from John McCain, Joe Biden, Wes Clark, Richard Holbrooke and the Beltway foreign policy Establishment, Ed Kilgore points us to Sam Nunn making some sense:

[C]learly the United States need to pause, look and listen before we rush into making Georgia and Ukraine part of NATO. If we’re going to do that, we have to understand that this is a military commitment. And we have to back it up militarily. Right now, we’re not doing well in Afghanistan. Our NATO allies seem to be reluctant to put in more forces. NATO’s got a lot of credibility at stake in Afghanistan. And the defense spending by most of our European allies is way down.

And if you look at the map, you can see pretty quickly that defending Georgia will require enormous expenditures unless we’re going to go back to a Berlin sort of situation, where we threaten to use nuclear weapons in response to conventional progression by the Soviet Union... A wounded bear is going to defend itself. I think Russia’s made a profound mistake, and they’ve got to correct it. [But] we have a real reason to avoid compounding the problem.

h/t andgarden