Via Greta: Karl Rove was on Hannity and Colmes tonight:

He was just asked who he thought Senator Obama should pick…he said the criteria should not be a political one (eg should not be whether VP can deliver a state) but rather who is ready to be President should something happen. He then said the choice should be Senator Hillary Clinton.

ABC says Biden backtracked a little on his denial that he is Obama's Veep pick. My response:

And a shout-out to Jerome at MyDD.

It's also looking less likely Hillary or Kathleen Sebelius will be the choice. ABC News says Obama's been using the "he" pronoun today rather than his customary "he or she."

I still say it's more likely Kaine than Biden.

I think politico-types are reading too much into the veep-stakes' tea leaves. On the most basic level, consider the obvious:

• Kaine is the only one of the final choices without a convention speaking slot
• Obama and Kaine are speaking together tomorrow in Virginia.

On another level, consider that Barack Obama and the Democratic party have made it clear the emphasis this year is on faith. It's going to be a faith-based convention. Obama has always been hope and change, and people tend to focus too much on the change. Hope, which equates with faith, is an equal part of his message.

Here's Tim Kaine on why he went into politics: [More...]

Indiana stays Republican according to SUSA's Indiana poll:

In an election for President of the United States held today in Indiana, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama by 6 points, 50% to 44%[.] . . . Compared to an identical poll released eight weeks ago, Obama is down 3 points; McCain is up 3.

SUSA's demo breakdowns are always the most interesting part. Let's look at them on the flip.

Beginning Thursday, Rachel Maddow takes over the 9pm ET slot at MSNBC, replacing Dan Abrams' show, The Verdict.

Mr. Abrams, who is well liked at MSNBC, is expected to remain both there and at NBC News, where he is the chief legal correspondent. He will also serve as an anchor during some of MSNBC’s daytime coverage, as well as a substitute host on NBC’s “Weekend Today” show.

I wonder how much of Olbermann's popularity is due to Rachel's constant presence as a guest, which she obviously can't keep doing with a new show of her own.

I like Rachel. I hope she does well. And I hope Dan's back on the air with his own show soon -- one about legal issues, which is what I think he does the best.

Update [2008-8-19 20:6:26 by Big Tent Democrat]: NBC says it does not matter, because Biden does not know if he is "the guy." And NBC reports Biden wlaks it back completely. Now we know. Biden IS the pick.

From First Read:

As Delaware Sen. Joe Biden left his home a few minutes ago, golf clubs in tow, he was asked where he was going to be on Saturday. Biden replied, "Here" and pointed down to his driveway. As he pulled out of the driveway in the driver's seat of his car he then said to the press gathered near his gate, "You guys have better things to do. I'm not the guy."

(Emphasis supplied.) Biden is not much of a game player on these things. When he says he is "not the guy," I believe him. That means Kaine is the guy. This is a terrible mistake by Obama imo. Not picking Clinton is ridiculous, but Biden gave Obama some cover. Kaine is inexperienced and a weak politician who will "reinforce" Obama's weakness.

If Kaine or Sebelius is the pick, I have to say I think Obama no longer is a shoo in and in fact is not much of a favorite anymore. An amazing turn of events I think. All Obama has to do to insure victory is pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate and he refuses to do it. Just amazing.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

While we're waiting for the LA Times poll results that Big Tent Democrat will write about, here's today's Quinnipiac poll:

American likely voters say 55 - 27 percent that Arizona Sen. John McCain is better qualified than Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to deal with Russia and now trails the Democrat 47 - 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

This compares to a 50 - 41 percent Sen. Obama lead in a July 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Even pro-Obama bloggers aren't happy with Obama's campaign strategy. Here's Josh Marshall: [More...]

For weeks, if not longer, it's been clear there is going to be a major infusion of religion into the Democratic National Convention.

Here's how it's being done. And why?

[it's] a mission to narrow the "G-d gap" between Democrats and Republicans by winning over religious voters who have flocked to the GOP over the last 20 years.

What do we do with them when they get here? Adopt their Republican views so we can keep them?

The DNCC just announced the following additional speakers to the Convention lineup and the gavel times.

Evan Bayh and Joe Biden are still on the list for Wednesday. Tim Kaine's name still doesn't appear anywhere. But, they stress more names are coming.

Joining the program on Monday, August 25th will be Former President Jimmy Carter; Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar; Miami Mayor Manny Diaz; Illinois state leaders Alexi Giannoulis, Dan Hynes, Lisa Madigan, and Tom Balanoff from Illinois SEIU; long-time Barack Obama mentor Jerry Kellman; NEA President Reg Weaver; AFT President Randi Weingarten; and NARAL Pro-Choice America President Nancy Keenan. The theme of Monday’s program is One Nation.

More...

Update [2008-8-19 17:23:39 by Big Tent Democrat]: LATimes poll has Obama 15 point lead evaporating, now up 2, 45-43.

Have no idea what "underperforming" is supposed to mean, but the LATimes blog says that is what its new poll shows Obama doing:

Which White House contender had the better summer? A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll of registered voters across the country leaves little doubt about the answer.

We can't reveal the precise figures yet; for that, check back at LATimes.com about 2 p.m. PDT (5 p.m. EDT). Suffice to say that the results will not alter the perception that -- given a seemingly sunny political climate for Democrats -- Barack Obama is under-performing nationally.

We'll see what it means at 5 EDT. I'll update this post then.

By Big Tent Democrat

Here are "the consequences":

NATO agreed after U.S. pressure on Tuesday to freeze regular contacts with Russia until Moscow had withdrawn its troops from Georgia in line with a peace deal. The alliance also agreed to upgrade contacts with Tbilisi but stopped short of accelerating its efforts to join NATO, an ambition which had enraged Russia even before the two-week-old conflict over Georgia's breakaway South Ossetia region.

(Emphasis supplied.) Here is the fun part, NATO's head Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said:

I should add that we certainly do not have the intention to close all doors in our communication with Russia," he said, after several European allies including Britain and Germany expressed doubts about cutting off links with Moscow.

More . . .

Sen. Barack Obama and his vice presidential running mate will attend a rally in Springfield, IL on Saturday. That's where Obama announced his candidacy.

More and more pundits are predicting Joe Biden. I think Obama would be smarter to pick Biden for Secretary of State than Vice President. Biden is the antithesis of change in Washington. He's been there since Nixon was President. Talk about getting sold a bill of goods.

Just what we don't need, a vice-president whose politics on crime are mired in the failed policies of the '80's.