It seems fair to characterize the Presidential race as too close to call right now based on the recent polling. But I still cling (reference intended) to the underlying dynamics being incredibly favorable to Democrats and Barack Obama. George W. Bush remains our ace in the hole. This is still Obama's contest to lose, even though he seems to be doing his damnedest to lose it. So what now? Well, first and foremost, I hope and think that every one has learned their lesson that "hope" and "change" and "ground game" and "50 state strategy" are all nice words, but do not translate into an easy win, even in this favorable climate. The Obama campaign has to dig in and fight the fight.

More . . .

Update [2008-8-20 10:4:28 by Big Tent Democrat]: Battleground Poll has McCain by 1, 47-46.

Boy, is John Zogby shameless. He'll massage his numbers anyway he can to get attention. And he does so in his latest Presidential poll:

In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

Obviously, the race has tightened, but Zogby needs some attention so he releases this. The man is a charlatan, not a pollster.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Since i won't be around if Sen. Barack Obama texts out his veep choice early this morning, here's a place to discuss it -- or any other topic that's on your mind.

The LA Times reports that the feds are investigating LA City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo and his wife. The lengthy article doesn't mention that Rocky Delgadillo was the city attorney who insisted on hammering Paris Hilton, notwithstanding parallel conduct by his wife. But I did back when Paris was in the news:

Paris was sentenced for a probation violation for driving under suspension while on probation. Mrs. Delgadillo also drove under suspension and committed a traffic offense while doing so. She was not charged with driving under suspension, only the traffic offense, and was fined $186.00.

Paris got 23 days in jail for driving under suspension which was a violation of her probation. She wasn't charged or convicted of any traffic offense-- or of drunk driving-- on that occasion. She didn't cause an accident. Her only drunk driving charge was the one that led to her original term of probation. As I wrote here: [More...]

Having been joined now by a chorus of Obama blogs in concern with Obama's post partisan unity schtick campaign, I am somewhat amused that no one noticed the problem before. TPM has been on it all day but this e-mail Marshall posts got my attention:

Obama needs to own the branding of John McCain, the man. . . . To that end, I think the essence of Obama's campaign needs to be "John McCain will do anything to get elected."

Obama has experience in that message no doubt ("Hillary will say or do anything to get elected") but it won't work on McCain because the Media will not play along. The problem is Obama has never gone after Republicans and specifically tied them to Bush (he of the 25% approval rating.) People are making this more complicated than it is. All you have to send as a message is not MCCain - flip flopper or anything like that, you say McCain - Bush's third term. Period, That is the negative branding that should be driven home every single day. That should be Obama's message every single day. But Dems don't do negative branding, they just get branded. I wrote about this when I was ripping into Lakoff back in 2006:

Via Greta: Karl Rove was on Hannity and Colmes tonight:

He was just asked who he thought Senator Obama should pick…he said the criteria should not be a political one (eg should not be whether VP can deliver a state) but rather who is ready to be President should something happen. He then said the choice should be Senator Hillary Clinton.

ABC says Biden backtracked a little on his denial that he is Obama's Veep pick. My response:

And a shout-out to Jerome at MyDD.

It's also looking less likely Hillary or Kathleen Sebelius will be the choice. ABC News says Obama's been using the "he" pronoun today rather than his customary "he or she."

I still say it's more likely Kaine than Biden.

I think politico-types are reading too much into the veep-stakes' tea leaves. On the most basic level, consider the obvious:

• Kaine is the only one of the final choices without a convention speaking slot
• Obama and Kaine are speaking together tomorrow in Virginia.

On another level, consider that Barack Obama and the Democratic party have made it clear the emphasis this year is on faith. It's going to be a faith-based convention. Obama has always been hope and change, and people tend to focus too much on the change. Hope, which equates with faith, is an equal part of his message.

Here's Tim Kaine on why he went into politics: [More...]

Indiana stays Republican according to SUSA's Indiana poll:

In an election for President of the United States held today in Indiana, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama by 6 points, 50% to 44%[.] . . . Compared to an identical poll released eight weeks ago, Obama is down 3 points; McCain is up 3.

SUSA's demo breakdowns are always the most interesting part. Let's look at them on the flip.

Beginning Thursday, Rachel Maddow takes over the 9pm ET slot at MSNBC, replacing Dan Abrams' show, The Verdict.

Mr. Abrams, who is well liked at MSNBC, is expected to remain both there and at NBC News, where he is the chief legal correspondent. He will also serve as an anchor during some of MSNBC’s daytime coverage, as well as a substitute host on NBC’s “Weekend Today” show.

I wonder how much of Olbermann's popularity is due to Rachel's constant presence as a guest, which she obviously can't keep doing with a new show of her own.

I like Rachel. I hope she does well. And I hope Dan's back on the air with his own show soon -- one about legal issues, which is what I think he does the best.

Update [2008-8-19 20:6:26 by Big Tent Democrat]: NBC says it does not matter, because Biden does not know if he is "the guy." And NBC reports Biden wlaks it back completely. Now we know. Biden IS the pick.

From First Read:

As Delaware Sen. Joe Biden left his home a few minutes ago, golf clubs in tow, he was asked where he was going to be on Saturday. Biden replied, "Here" and pointed down to his driveway. As he pulled out of the driveway in the driver's seat of his car he then said to the press gathered near his gate, "You guys have better things to do. I'm not the guy."

(Emphasis supplied.) Biden is not much of a game player on these things. When he says he is "not the guy," I believe him. That means Kaine is the guy. This is a terrible mistake by Obama imo. Not picking Clinton is ridiculous, but Biden gave Obama some cover. Kaine is inexperienced and a weak politician who will "reinforce" Obama's weakness.

If Kaine or Sebelius is the pick, I have to say I think Obama no longer is a shoo in and in fact is not much of a favorite anymore. An amazing turn of events I think. All Obama has to do to insure victory is pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate and he refuses to do it. Just amazing.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

While we're waiting for the LA Times poll results that Big Tent Democrat will write about, here's today's Quinnipiac poll:

American likely voters say 55 - 27 percent that Arizona Sen. John McCain is better qualified than Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to deal with Russia and now trails the Democrat 47 - 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

This compares to a 50 - 41 percent Sen. Obama lead in a July 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Even pro-Obama bloggers aren't happy with Obama's campaign strategy. Here's Josh Marshall: [More...]