Big Tent Democrat and I will be back to live-blog the debate. The TL kid will be watching with me so he may join us, since he brings a younger perspective. He, like me, was a late comer to supporting Obama but he's a true Dem and firmly committed now.

In the meantime, here's an open thread. Predictions as to who will do better? Will we see any gaffes? Is it about issues or personalities?

My thoughts below. [More...]

Via Yglesias. CAP reviews the Wall Street bailout plan John McCain seems to be championing, or at least using it to put the kibosh on the Dodd/Frank/Dem Plan. CAP's Michael Ettinger writes:

The late-arriving proposal from a group of arch-conservative Congressional Republicans for dealing with the financial crisis is a disaster on two fronts. First, right now the credit markets worldwide are close to collapse . . . Congressional leaders were right in not passing the administration’s flawed bailout proposal precipitously, as the Center for American Progress discussed here.

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Now that the debate is on, I think we can consider the following factors that could and, imo, will, largely shape the perception of the debate.

The first is positive for Barack Obama - John McCain looked like a crass political operative with his ridiculous stunts. McCain is in a hole right now because his obvious political stunt blew up in his face. There is no deal and yet McCain will be at the debate. His mere appearance constitutes an obvious flip flop.

The second is positive for McCain. By plan or by sheer luck, McCain has utterly lowered the expectations for his performance tonight. He has been such a bumbler all week that the ability to stand up and not do a Chevy Chase doing a Gerald Ford imitation will be a small win for McCain.

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Murray Waas has a new article in the Atlantic on the infamous Ashcroft hospital visit during which the ailing Ashcroft was pressured to sign off on Bush's warrantless electronic surveillance plan. Murray says:

"According to people familiar with statements recently made by Gonzales to federal investigators, Gonzales is now saying that George Bush personally directed him to make that hospital visit. "

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Judging from the media reactions to Thursday's oral argument in former Qwest CEO Joe Nacchio's insider trading case, held before 9 judges on the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals, Mr. Nacchio faces some sleepless nights ahead waiting for the final decision on whether he gets a new trial or goes directly to jail.

Rocky Mountain News reporter Jeff Smith, who has been writing on the case since the beginning and who attended yesterday's arguments reports it was all very technical and about "the rules." But the Judges seemed more interested in peppering Nacchio's lawyer with questions than it did the Government's counsel.

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I will say this for the last time - McCain loving clueless PUMAs are NOT welcome in my threads. EVER. McCain supporting Republicans are welcome. J and Chris have more patience than I do so I suggest you try their threads instead.

Tonight I will be liveblogging the debate with Jeralyn and before that, I will write a preview of what I expect to come. I am also scheduled to discuss the debate by phone on C-Span either before or after the debate, not sure yet. Obviously, my point of view will be that of a Democrat supporting the Democratic candidate for President. But I will be honest in my appraisal of their performances, as I always have been in these things.

This is Open Thread.

The first line says it all:

Republican John McCain agreed to attend the first presidential debate Friday night even though Congress doesn't have a bailout deal, reversing an earlier decision to delay the forum until Washington had addressed the financial crisis.

(Emphasis supplied.) It was always a political stunt, putting John McCain first, ahead of the country. It now has proven to be a humiliating failure of a political stunt that proved what most of us already know - John McCain will say or do anything to win an election.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

DKos/R2000 (9/23-25) has Obama up 5, 48-43. Hotline (9/23-25) has Obama up 7, 49-42. NYTimes (9/21-24) has Obama up 6, 50-44. Gallup (9/23-25) has Obama by 3, 48-45. Ras (9/23-25) has Obama up 5, 50-45. Still standing alone, Battleground (9/21-25) has McCain up 2, 48-46.

If there is a debate, it is very likely to have an effect on all of the polls. Will McCain show up? I have not a shadow of a doubt he will be there.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

NYTimes analysis:

Senator John McCain had intended to ride back into Washington on Thursday as a leader who had put aside presidential politics to help broker a solution to the financial crisis. Instead he found himself in the midst of a remarkable partisan showdown, lacking a clear public message for how to bring it to an end. At the bipartisan White House meeting that Mr. McCain had called for a day earlier, he sat silently for more than 40 minutes, more observer than leader, and then offered only a vague sense of where he stood, said people in the meeting.

. . . [T]here was no evidence that he was playing a major role in the frantic efforts on Capitol Hill to put a deal back together again. . . . [T]he day’s events succeeded most of all in raising questions about precisely why Mr. McCain had called for postponing the first debate and returned to Washington to focus on the bailout plan, and what his own views were about what should be done. . . .

(Emphasis supplied.) Eugene Robinson explains: [More...]

NYTimes reports:

In the Roosevelt Room after the session, the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr. . . . pleaded with Nancy Pelosi . . . not to “blow it up” by withdrawing her party’s support for the package over what Ms. Pelosi derided as a Republican betrayal. [Pelosi responded] “[i]t’s not me blowing this up, it’s the Republicans.” Mr. Paulson sighed. “I know. I know.”

It was the very outcome the White House had said it intended to avoid, with partisan presidential politics appearing to trample what had been exceedingly delicate Congressional negotiations. . . . [A] top aide to Mr. Boehner . . . , Kevin Smith, said Republicans revolted, in part, because they were chafing at what they saw as an attempt by Democrats to jam through an agreement on the bailout early Thursday and deny Mr. McCain an opportunity to participate in the agreement.

(Emphasis supplied.) So Republicans ADMIT that they blew up the deal because it "den[ied] McCain an opportunity to participate in the agreement." The admissions is shocking and revealing. John McCain and the Republicans blew up this deal to further McCain's own political ambition. Country first my ass.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

More and more media articles I'm reading tonight agree: McCain's suspension of his campaign was a political stunt, a second Hail Mary pass to deal with falling poll numbers and growing worry among voters that Sarah Palin just is not qualified or prepared to be Vice President and that he makes rash decisions out of self-interest and tries to pass them off as patriotism.

Here's one I like a lot, it covers almost all the bases: Sell! Sell! McCain is Tanking in the Boston Globe.

Between his grandstanding on the economy today -- claiming he was going to suspend his campaign because his presence was needed in D.C. to ensure a bailout deal was made, when he has little economic expertise and has never served on a banking committee, and then failing to arrive until mid-afternoon, well after Dems and Republicans had crafted their tentative agreement but finding time to appear on all three networks and still refusing to abide by his debate commitment tomorrow night -- and the woefully inept performance of Gov. Sarah Palin on the Katie Couric interview -- he's got to be toast.

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I'm deciding between watching the last hour of Play It As It Lays, the movie with Tuesday Weld and Anthony Perkins made from the Joan Didion novel which was my favorite book for all of the '70's and '80's (I can still recite most of the dialogue by heart) and the first hour of the new Survivor, while I wait for the two hour season premiere of Gray's Anatomy to start.

Survivor is in Gabon in Africa, and in HD for the first time.

I've had enough of the economy and Sarah Palin for the day. What are you watching or doing?

Update: Gray's Anatomy was terrible, everybody died and the melodrama was over the top and boring.