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The Polls - 9/26

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:29:49 AM EST
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DKos/R2000 (9/23-25) has Obama up 5, 48-43. Hotline (9/23-25) has Obama up 7, 49-42. NYTimes (9/21-24) has Obama up 6, 50-44. Gallup (9/23-25) has Obama by 3, 48-45. Ras (9/23-25) has Obama up 5, 50-45. Still standing alone, Battleground (9/21-25) has McCain up 2, 48-46.

If there is a debate, it is very likely to have an effect on all of the polls. Will McCain show up? I have not a shadow of a doubt he will be there.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< John McCain:Thinking Of Himself First, Last And Always | The Humiliating End To McCain's Stunt: He Will Debate Tonight >

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    The Polls - 9/26 | 64 comments (64 topical)

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    Of course he will be there (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by Steve M on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:35:39 AM EST
    Nothing has actually changed for the McCain campaign, except that the topic du jour for his spokespeople is how awesome he is for "suspending the campaign."  Oh, and Palin cancelled a few events under the pretense that "it's the entire McCain/Palin campaign which is suspended," which frankly makes no sense.

    Considering how much (none / 0) (#25)
    by Fabian on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:24:04 AM EST
    the Media has invested in the debate, it would not be a smart move to skip it.  The Media would be unhappy and they'd show it.

    McCain used to schmooze the Media shamelessly.  Did he forget how?

    Parent

    Not even a shadow? (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:44:18 AM EST
    I make it 50-50 he shows.

    He'll get a trouncing in absentia if he's not there.

    If he is there he'll get a trouncing to his face.

    Well, I have a ... (none / 0) (#11)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:54:48 AM EST
    Shadow of a Doubt.  It's quite an underrated Hitchcock film.

    No doubt that McCain will show up though.

    Parent

    how could he not show? (none / 0) (#23)
    by coigue on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:10:30 AM EST
    he has some 'splainin to do.

    Parent
    How CAN he show? (none / 0) (#24)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:14:41 AM EST
    If there's no signed & sealed agreement.  After announcing he was putting country ahead of politics, if he shows up, what's he going to say?  Country not so important after all?

    If there isn't a completed deal this afternoon he'll look like a total fool if he shows up.  Media lede: "After pledging to put country before politics in resolving the financial crisis, John McCain today reversed course and. . ."

    Isn't it funny how John McCain allows seems to fall butter side down?

    Parent

    How about this hypo: (none / 0) (#26)
    by oculus on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:28:31 AM EST
    all the Republicans leave Congress at some point today, there are no Republicans to work on a bail out deal, and McCain shows up in Mississippi for the debate.  What would be the point of staying in DC?

    Parent
    OMG (none / 0) (#35)
    by coigue on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:40:58 AM EST


    Parent
    It's nice to see ... (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:49:32 AM EST
    Obama at 48% and above in so many of those polls.

    This is more important than the spread, imho.

    And, yes, McCain will be at the debate.  And, yes, they will devote a huge chunk of the debate to the financial crisis.

    Obama at 50 in some polls is a milestone, right? (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by ruffian on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:55:59 AM EST
    I have not seen him hit 50 yet.  That is good news.

    I'm glad Lehrer has this first debate. He's less likely to focus on the sideshow.

    Actually (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by bluegal on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 09:06:31 AM EST
    By my count he has hit 50 on eight occasions since the beginning of the convention season to now. He's in very good shape.

    The best thing for McCain would have been to go into the debates tied.  I'll say it again, McCain is really screwed. All Obama has to do is tie him in the debates since the expecations are so low to be deemed the "winner of the debates."

    Parent

    Consistently at 50 is better yet. (none / 0) (#18)
    by ruffian on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 09:20:23 AM EST


    Parent
    He hit 50 (none / 0) (#17)
    by liminal on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 09:15:00 AM EST
    after the Democratic convention.  

    Parent
    McCain still dithering on attending. (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 09:30:29 AM EST
    He seems to have forgotten that strong but wrong generally beats weak but right in electoral politics.

    He's even raised the ante with his weak but wrong approach this week.

    He'll be there (none / 0) (#21)
    by rdandrea on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 09:49:07 AM EST
    He's not one to pass up free media.

    Parent
    Just as I suspected. A craven, (none / 0) (#38)
    by oculus on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:43:47 AM EST
    self-serving pol.  Now what shall we talk about the rest of the day?

    Parent
    Will McCain's antics hurt downticket R's? (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by WS on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 09:43:25 AM EST
    I sure hope so.  The Congressional Republicans and the McCain campaign don't seem to be on the same page.  Amazingly, the Dems are much more on message.  

    it's complex Kabuki (none / 0) (#55)
    by wystler on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 11:24:31 AM EST
    but, yeah, the antics can be worked top to bottom, if the folks at DTrip and DSCC can get their targeting act together to show that the GOP has no captain, no rudder, and no centerboard

    Parent
    McCain announced he will debate (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by wasabi on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:28:48 AM EST
    Just announced on Fox News, McCain will debate.

    Hah! (none / 0) (#29)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:30:33 AM EST
    What happened to country first, John?  I guess it really is McCain first!  Obama called your bluff and you blinked.  You think you're really ready to go toe to toe with Putin when you can't even win a staring contest with a first term Senator?

    Parent
    Wow (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by Steve M on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:33:52 AM EST
    The whole thing was just a gigantic "look at me" stunt, in the midst of a very real financial crisis.  I sure hope voters see it that way.

    Parent
    He just blinked, big time. (none / 0) (#34)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:39:21 AM EST
    I don't think he was going to come out of this looking very good no matter which way you slice it, but I think his only hope was to stay in DC.

    By reversing course he's pretty much openly admitted that it was all a stunt.

    He looks weak.

    Parent

    He was screwed by the White House (none / 0) (#42)
    by Cream City on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:48:37 AM EST
    as I read that it started with a call from Paulson to McCain about a White House frantic at the defecting House Republicans and asking for McCain to come help with them.  So he was caught either way, because the House Republicans are not in a mood to help the White House -- or McCain.  

    What seemed only an odd theory before now becomes more clear:  There are Republicans who won't care a whit about the Dems winning, because they then will be saddled with this mess -- and the downticket Republicans will not be tied to another loser president.  The Dems will, as the one that walks into the White House in January is going to have a horrible first term -- so bad it will be his last term.

    Parent

    got a link? (none / 0) (#56)
    by wystler on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 11:26:45 AM EST
    ... as I read that it started with a call from Paulson to McCain ...

    i'd like to see that in print

    everything i'd seen had read that mccain insinuated himself, rather than coming at Hank Paulson's behest


    Parent

    Schieffer from CBS reported it (none / 0) (#59)
    by Cream City on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 12:06:19 PM EST
    and I saw it on several sites then, and wish I had saved the most complete report -- but here's one that googled up.  A lot of others come up, too, if you want to get a range of sources -- as I sure wanted to do, too, with the slant I saw on this from those with agendas.

    My agenda is just wanting to know what is going on now with the economy, separate from what will go down in November -- because the economy going down will matter more than anything, no matter who is in the White House next.  And if it goes down as badly as I fear, it will have impact for far more than four years.  And the years are running out for some of us.

    Parent

    it's a bit different than your intimation (none / 0) (#60)
    by wystler on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 02:04:26 PM EST
    jumping through the PajamasMedia circle member's to a further link, i found this:

    BOB SCHIEFFER: I am told, Maggie, that the way McCain got involved in this in the first place, the Treasury Secretary was briefing Republicans in the House yesterday, the Republican conference, asked how many were ready to support the bailout plan. Only four of them held up their hands.  Paulson then called, according to my sources, Senator Lindsey Graham, who is very close to John McCain, and told him: you've got to get the people in the McCain campaign, you've got to convince John McCain to give these Republicans some political cover. If you don't do that, this whole bailout plan is going to fail. So that's how, McCain, apparently, became involved.

    McCain was not contacted by Paulson. Instead, Paulson, knowing that, without the House GoOPers on board, there was no future for the bailout, told Lindsey Graham that McCain would have to give Boehner & Co political cover.

    In other words, McCain's mission was to figurehead the conservative motion toward compromise.

    McCain failed. Utterly. Completely.

    But McCain was not phoned by Hank Paulson.

    Parent

    Ah, okay -- I saw it reported (none / 0) (#64)
    by Cream City on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 12:07:26 AM EST
    the other way.  Paulson initiated the contact through an intermediary.

    Thanks.

    Parent

    scary scenario (none / 0) (#57)
    by marian evans on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 11:33:18 AM EST
    I've been thinking for weeks now that the Republican powers-that-be are playing a longer game.

    Having made the judgement that they are so "on the nose" with the electorate after the Bush debacle, that they are unlikely to get elected, they are planning for the next election, not this one.

    It suits the Republicans to let the Dems win - so the Republicans field a pack of inferior candidates (keeping the powder dry - ie fielding more effective candidates - for 2012).

    It suits the Republicans that the Dems have chosen the less "political" and more ideological of the 2 major candidates as their nominee ('cos folks, what the US needs now is an astute and able politician - not a symbol, or an ideologica construct).

    It suits the Reps that the Dems are going to be left carrying the economic can of worms - and getting the blame for it further down the track.

    Moreover, given how he has framed his campaign, Sen Obama carries the freight of a lot of people's expectations. However, he will fail - inevitably - because politics cannot carry the weight of the kind of "wish-fulfillment" that has been set up.

    On top of that, the Reps will save their best sh*t to dump on Sen Obama AFTER the election. There will be scandals and exposes etc to fill all those papers currently greasing Sen Obama's wheels - and the MSM will gleefully join the kicking.

    The combination of disappointed dreams, economic disaster, and scandal will cripple Sen Obama's tenure. Failure of that kind would devastate the Dems. People expect so much, as so little of what they want will, or even can, be delivered.

    Come 2012, the Reps will field a class A candidate - and the Dems can kiss goodbye to the White House for a generation.

    The Reps didn't want Sen Clinton as Dem nominee - she would have put a spoke in their wheel. A Clinton-Obama ticket would have solidified Dem hold on the WH for 16 years.

    What were you thinking?

    Parent

    I worried from the start, too (5.00 / 1) (#58)
    by Cream City on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 11:55:34 AM EST
    about that scenario of immediate GOP scandalmongering and stalemate again if a Dem gets to the White House -- either Obama or Clinton, as we saw how ready the GOP was for the last Dem, the other Clinton, in 1992.  And we saw how the GOP used that to win the 1994 elections.

    I think they have the ammo ready for Obama, and it is going to be an ugly four years ahead for this country.  It will be racialized beyond what we have seen before in this primary, the Rodney King case, the O.J. trial, etc.  But I think it almost inevitable, no matter who would be the first AA president, as the Repubs are what they are.

    So I also am reminded, more and more, of the Jackie Robinson story.  Of the long wait in part because of the need to find the sort of man who could withstand what was to come.  I think Obama may have those characteristics.  But I also think it will be so frustrating for him and for us, because it could paralyze Congress even more.

    And it could be the worst at the personal level for him -- for what Michelle Obama and their daughters will have to endure.  May those girls survive the ugliness as well as did Chelsea Clinton.

    Parent

    Speculative, but (none / 0) (#63)
    by rennies on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 05:32:02 PM EST
    this is how the Republicans work, with the long view. Think -- from Goldwater disaster to Reagan. If I could give you a 10, I would.

    Parent
    On the contrary (none / 0) (#41)
    by stefystef on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:48:18 AM EST
    McCain will show up to Ole Miss and say he stayed in DC overnight, talking to his fellow Republicans and Democrats and helped them to hammer out a deal to save the American economy.

    McCain will puff out this chest and say, I put the Country First, I didn't leave until I made sure that a deal would be acceptable to both parties and would not belittle the American public and reward the corrupt CEOs.  And the Republicans will back him up, stating that they were willing to fight for the Country, not give it away.

    I am surprise some of you don't see the bigger picture.  Perhaps a re-reading of Marc Antony's speech at the funeral of Julius Caesar is in order.   The way a simple man could turn a crowd against those who thought they were doing right by the nation is extraordinary.  

    I have the feeling that McCain, in being underestimated, is about to give the performance of his life.  

    Parent

    How exactly (none / 0) (#45)
    by flyerhawk on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:51:37 AM EST
    will he do that when no deal is reached?

    Parent
    Same report on MSNBC (none / 0) (#30)
    by magster on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:31:19 AM EST


    Parent
    No surprise <eom> (none / 0) (#32)
    by votermom on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:36:29 AM EST


    Parent
    and not only the debate... (none / 0) (#33)
    by wasabi on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:39:04 AM EST
    His campaign has called off the suspension, so now he is free to go on network TV for interviews, attend fundraisers with PUMAs, run ads,...

    Ah, never mind.  

    Parent

    You say nuclear, I say nucleear. . . (none / 0) (#36)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:41:48 AM EST
    let's call the calling off, off.

    Parent
    RAS Daily Tracking just posted (none / 0) (#1)
    by rdandrea on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:30:54 AM EST
    Obama +5, reaches 50 percent.

    wow (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by connecticut yankee on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 09:08:44 AM EST
    ras by 5.  That one hasnt moved much lately.

    Parent
    He'll be there (none / 0) (#2)
    by ruffian on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:35:34 AM EST
    He's ready for his close-up, after throwing his tantrum like any diva.

    BTD....not cheerypicking....... (none / 0) (#4)
    by Kefa on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:38:38 AM EST
    it was the latest poll. WE are on the same side.

    It was NOT the latest poll (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:40:55 AM EST
    The Dkos poll was the latest poll.

    And now the RAS poll is the latest poll.

    I do not care what side you are on. You went and picked the one poll that has McCain ahead. That was just ridiculous.

    If you were an Obama supporter and the situation were reversed, I would say the same thing. I have intellectual dishonesty.

    Parent

    Uhh. . . (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:43:07 AM EST
    typo?  I hope. . .

    Parent
    You are too hard on yourself (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by ruffian on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:44:26 AM EST
    I have intellectual dishonesty
    ?

    A typo, I hope!

    Parent

    I dope so too! n/t (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by LarryInNYC on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:59:07 AM EST


    Parent
    Now, about that bill... (none / 0) (#22)
    by Salo on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 09:55:05 AM EST


    Parent
    Just to clarify...... (none / 0) (#10)
    by Kefa on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:49:55 AM EST
    I use RCP for my polls views.....always have.

    Better be a ten point spread in November (none / 0) (#16)
    by Dadler on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 09:12:09 AM EST
    Or I still say fraud will rule the day and decide the election.  Cynical, but I can't help feeling that way.  Machines that "we the people" do not have control of are deciding far too many segments of this election.  

    The real question . . . (none / 0) (#28)
    by Doc Rock on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:29:11 AM EST
    . . . is will Palin ever debate Biden?  I wouldn't mortgage the farm betting on that one.  You can smell the fear rolling off the Straight Talk [sic] Express.

    Did you watch the (5.00 / 1) (#46)
    by votermom on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:52:52 AM EST
    debates of W vs Gore & vs Kerry? Sometimes it doesn't matter if you win the debate but lose the "voter appeal" thingie. Biden has to be careful regardless of the low expectations for Palin.

    Parent
    McCain cannot afford not to show up. (none / 0) (#37)
    by Finis Terrae on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:42:21 AM EST
    He simply can't.

    He is running for POTUS, so yes, polls aside, participation in the debate is that important.

    I love these poll threads (none / 0) (#39)
    by Lil on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:44:44 AM EST
    informative and funny sometimes too.

    Can someone with more knowledge tell us more about Battleground. It puzzles me that they "stand alone". What makes them come up with different results?

    This is an effing soap (none / 0) (#40)
    by coigue on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:46:11 AM EST
    opera....and I cannot look away.

    McCain will certainly show tonight (none / 0) (#43)
    by flyerhawk on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:49:49 AM EST
    and there will be no consensus reached on the bailout proposal.  There is absolutely no way the Democrats will give him that easy win.

    They will force him to either not attend the debate or go back on his promise and attend the debate without a deal in place.

    I cannot for the life of me understand what the McCain campaign was trying to do with this move.

    Not True (none / 0) (#52)
    by pluege on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 11:00:20 AM EST
    There is absolutely no way the Democrats will give him that easy win.

    Wow, where is the evidence that democrats are prepared to ever stand firm against their republican masters? Democrats are more afraid of being yelled at in the media by republicans than anything else. Democrats will ink any deal they can, as soon as they can regardless of how much they help Big Liar John.  

    Parent

    ha (none / 0) (#62)
    by connecticut yankee on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 02:13:14 PM EST
    Shake the compass and hope for a result besides north (obama) as Matthews suggested.

    Looks like that compass still points north.

    Parent

    McCain's statement (none / 0) (#44)
    by wasabi on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:51:21 AM EST
    McCain's statement:
    He is free to resume his campaign now that there is a framework established for all parties to be represented in the negotiations.  Roy Blunt who isn't on the banking committee will be the cheif negotiator for the House Republicans.

    why am I stunned (none / 0) (#47)
    by Lil on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:53:56 AM EST
    that McCain is even still in the game? He comes off as completely ridiculos to me, and for whatever naive reason, I can't believe that the vast majority of people can not see that.

    Liberals (none / 0) (#53)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 11:11:52 AM EST
    often miss the stuff especially those of us who blog.

    I thought the stunts that Bush pulled in 2000 & 2004 would be seen through. They weren't. So I don't expect things to be much different this time.

    Parent

    bush served one useful purpose: (none / 0) (#54)
    by pluege on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 11:12:43 AM EST
    By their long and lasting support of bush, a good 35% of the American population were identified as ignorant craven Neanderthals, and it does help to know what you're dealing with. That 35% Neanderthal population always established a worst-case floor under whichever pandering lying dolt the republicans ran.

    (note, that the support the craven republican no matter what the cost to the nation and humanity crowd recently dropped to 26% only means that a little more than a quarter of them are calculating enough to jump off the sinking shipping now that its clear on its way to the bottom - doesn't mean they disagree with anything bush has done).  

    Parent

    It has become clear ... (none / 0) (#48)
    by pluege on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:55:16 AM EST
    Big Liar John is focussed (as tactic) on making attention grabbing entrances. Expect him to be dropped at the debate hall by helicopter right before the debate is to begin...maybe he'll even climb down one of those swinging ladders onto the roof of the hall.  

    I didn't think (none / 0) (#51)
    by Lil on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:59:27 AM EST
    this campaign could get any worse than Bush/Kerry; I really didn't. I thought that American Idol feel to some of Bush's antics and the reality show shots of Kerry carrying a dead duck etc. were pathetic. But this race is becoming a farce, imo. Please God, let him lose this debate; I really can't stand the thought of another frat boy and cheerleader running the country (at least we'd be rid of Darth Vader).

    Parent
    Someone (I think 538) did a study... (none / 0) (#49)
    by mike in dc on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:56:52 AM EST
    ...of the effect of previous debates on polling.  The typical range of effect is about +- 2 points, with really major breakthroughs going up as high as +- 4 points.  So, a great performance by one candidate and a gaffe-prone performance by another could raise the former 2 points and lower the latter 2 points.  
    An Obama lead of about 3-4 points going in means he has a nice cushion in case things go McCain's way, and in the alternative will gain an almost insurmountable lead in his best case scenario.

    Plus there's the debate between Biden and Gov. Not Ready for Prime Time next week.  If both of those go our way, I don't think anything short of catching bin Laden would save McCain.  If it's somehow a loss for us, it's still recoverable, though obviously not where we'd like to be.

    Of course McCain has to show up... (none / 0) (#50)
    by Don in Seattle on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:57:02 AM EST
    The alternatives are not good for him:

    • A 2-hour one-on-one interview, just Obama and Lehrer, with occasional glimpses of McCain's empty podium; or worse,
    • Sending in Palin to pinch-hit for him.


    You're not comprehending what I wrote (none / 0) (#65)
    by Cream City on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 12:10:03 AM EST
    or you would see that I am talking about what you call "politically" -- or else you think Dems will do to McCain-Palin, if they win, what Repubs did to Clinton.  And I don't think you think that.

    If you do, I disagree.  Dems don't play that dirty yet.  

    For the rest, it's not relevant to what I wrote.

    The Polls - 9/26 | 64 comments (64 topical)

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