Pre-Debate Open Thread

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 06:33:25 PM EST
Tags: John McCain, Barack Obama (all tags)

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Big Tent Democrat and I will be back to live-blog the debate. The TL kid will be watching with me so he may join us, since he brings a younger perspective. He, like me, was a late comer to supporting Obama but he's a true Dem and firmly committed now.

In the meantime, here's an open thread. Predictions as to who will do better? Will we see any gaffes? Is it about issues or personalities?

My thoughts below. [More...]

No major gaffes, the winner will be the one who seems most presidential. I don't think the country is in the mood for theatrics tonight, they want thoughtful answers and they want to see leadership.

I hope they ask McCain about Gov. Sarah Palin's remarks last night on her foreign policy experience. We'll need at least one laugh.

< Is The Pence Plan The McCain Bailout Plan? | Obama-McCain Miss. Debate Live Blog >

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Pre-Debate Open Thread | 71 comments (71 topical)

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The House is still in session? (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by andgarden on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:05:30 PM EST

That surprises me.

They've been in session late ... (none / 0) (#29)
by Robot Porter on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:27:46 PM EST

almost every night for the last two weeks.


I mostly stopped watching C-SPAN (none / 0) (#32)
by andgarden on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:29:44 PM EST

after I left Washington in August.

I missed hearing about the "motion to reconsider."


: C-Span doesn't have commercials ... (5.00 / 1) (#59)
by Robot Porter on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:47:16 PM EST

so it's one of the few channels I turn on, when I turn on broadcast TV.
Thanks to all the other ways to watch TV shows, I have been increasingly able to avoid commercials, so I've become increasingly intolerant toward them.

I predict BArack Obama will say (5.00 / 1) (#14)
by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:14:57 PM EST

he is against the Pence/McCain Bailout Plan of more tax cuts for Wall Street, less regulation for Wall Street and no ability for taxpayers to recoup their money. I also predict he will endorse HOLC tonight.

I also predict he will (5.00 / 2) (#18)
by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:19:38 PM EST

refer to the HOLC proposal as "Hillary Clinton's HOLC proposal".


: Sure hope you are right. (5.00 / 1) (#22)
by oculus on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:22:21 PM EST

: He didn't, did he? (none / 0) (#71)
by oculus on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 10:56:07 PM EST

I predict (5.00 / 1) (#21)
by Steve M on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:21:46 PM EST

that at least one commentor at TL will claim that McCain won because his surrogates are claiming he won, and people for some reason find the disingenuous arguments of McCain surrogates convincing and there's nothing we can do about it.

I second that (5.00 / 1) (#24)
by andgarden on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:24:17 PM EST

Of course, McCain might actually "win" performance wise. That would be disappointing.

Honestly, I have no idea what to expect from the chemistry of this. McCain might appear to lash out, or who knows.


: It's quite possible that he could come off better (none / 0) (#27)
by Salo on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:26:28 PM EST

We have yet to see Obama face off against a real ideological opponent. He panicked with Georgeous Steffie.

even if he does come out on top... (5.00 / 2) (#25)
by Salo on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:25:15 PM EST

...he'll still lose the election. There's no effing way the electorate can reward the GOP with another four years in the Whitehouse.


I'm listening for the word "craven." (5.00 / 1) (#23)
by robrecht on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:23:46 PM EST

Where's that string of adjectives (none / 0) (#26)
by oculus on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:25:24 PM EST

again?


Found it: (none / 0) (#40)
by robrecht on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:35:10 PM EST

He is a reckless, feckless, mendacious, craven, political hack willing to say and do anything to try and win. He is truly a disgraceful person, unfit for the Presidency.

Bet he's afraid to say it on TV. ;)


That line is a keeper (5.00 / 1) (#43)
by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:36:27 PM EST

mendacious (none / 0) (#51)
by coigue on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:38:51 PM EST

I have to use that one more often


Damn straight! (none / 0) (#55)
by robrecht on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:41:19 PM EST

I dare you to use it on CSPAN!


: heh (none / 0) (#57)
by Salo on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:45:04 PM EST

He a recklessictudnous, fecklessicious, mendalaciousish, cravenitime, political hacktackular loser, willing to say and do anything to try and cheatining win. He is trufulliciously a disgraceful personitude, unfit from the tip of his bald pate to the tip of jammy toes for the Presidency.
The King

Frankly ... (5.00 / 1) (#48)
by Robot Porter on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:37:59 PM EST

with the bizarre nature of this campaign nothing tonight would surprise me.

If a UFO landed on the stage, and the debated ended with Obama, McCain and an alien doing a clog dance, it would just seem about par for the course.

Jeralyn, did the TL kid support Hillary (none / 0) (#1)
by Teresa on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 06:39:00 PM EST

because of your influence or is he just extra smart? :) I've often wondered if his friends understood or gave him a hard time.

he supported Hillary (5.00 / 1) (#3)
by Jeralyn on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 06:50:10 PM EST

on his own, but I'm sure I had something to do with it. Just like he became a criminal defense lawyer on his own, but I had a lot to do with inspiring him.


: Kudos to you. (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by oculus on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 06:50:59 PM EST

: forgot the other part (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by Jeralyn on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 06:53:17 PM EST

of your question. Yes, his friends were mostly all for Obama but he's a good debater and I'm sure he either held his own or changed the subject. I'll ask him when he gets here.

Please put on the TL kid (not really (none / 0) (#2)
by oculus on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 06:40:43 PM EST

a kid anymore, as my daughters are quick to tell me)as I'd like to find out if he agrees with you on the importance of all things Gov. Palin.

Meanwhile, I'm trying to devise the perfect question on U.S. military in Pakistan and how Pakistan is reacting to same.

the tl kid says (none / 0) (#38)
by Jeralyn on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:34:20 PM EST

he's absolutely terrified for our country if she is put in a position of power. He also agrees that we (blogs)should talk about her even if Obama isn't.

He says his favorite blogs are TPM (particularly Josh Marshall) and TalkLeft.


: Thanks. (none / 0) (#61)
by oculus on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:50:50 PM EST

I can't believe that this is the FIRST (none / 0) (#5)
by bjorn on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 06:52:00 PM EST

debate. It seems like this thing as been going on forever now!

If only Hillary had dropped out (5.00 / 3) (#7)
by oculus on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:03:11 PM EST

in Feb.!


lol (4.50 / 2) (#9)
by Faust on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:05:56 PM EST

I must say your snark is growing on me.


Hillary is a definite Presidential contender (none / 0) (#10)
by WS on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:09:11 PM EST

after Obama is done with his Presidency (crossing fingers). If she lost after Iowa or lost in OH and TX, I don't think she would have run again but all those wins and she almost beat the rules that went against her! What a woman!

Heck, McCain won his party's nomination 8 years after getting trounced in South Carolina, but he might not be a good example for Hillary to follow. As always, she'll blaze her own path.


I think an over-60-year old (5.00 / 1) (#12)
by oculus on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:11:33 PM EST

female Clinton has less a chance of success than a 60-year old female Clinton.


Perhaps (5.00 / 2) (#16)
by Steve M on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:16:59 PM EST

but I think Hillary learned an awful lot in the course of this year's campaign. She wouldn't have lost if she had been that candidate from the start.


I think she would have. (none / 0) (#30)
by Salo on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:28:05 PM EST

When the black vote she previously attracted cratered, she was finished. A lot of her early posturing was design around taking that segment for granted.


Hm (5.00 / 1) (#34)
by Steve M on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:30:35 PM EST

I'm not even sure what that means. Where did Hillary take the black vote for granted? Iowa? New Hampshire? South Carolina?


: I think it's absolutely true (5.00 / 1) (#36)
by andgarden on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:33:10 PM EST

that only a serious black candidate could have beaten Hillary this year.
If Obama were just some white liberal from Illinois, Hillary would have wiped the floor with him by Super Tuesday, if not in South Carolina.

: well, look at it this way. (5.00 / 1) (#42)
by Salo on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:35:53 PM EST

It required a black candidate to fracture her methodically constructed coalition.
Maybe she did or didn't take themn for granted. But a winning strategy certainly required that she keep them on her side.
Then she found another gear and nearly upset Obama as he blithely coasted into the nomination.

She won't run in 2016 (5.00 / 1) (#11)
by nycstray on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:11:33 PM EST

If Obama wins, we've lost our chance with her, imo.


Bittersweet. (5.00 / 2) (#15)
by rooge04 on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:15:10 PM EST

I want a Dem President but I know when we get one that means that Hillary will never be one. ;(


: Who knows? (none / 0) (#54)
by lilburro on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:40:11 PM EST

A professor of mine thinks that the Party basically owes her now and that if she wants it, she can have it.
CNN, as usual, is making absurd use of their budget with gadgets and visual magic. But at least they aren't spending it on a moron like Matthews.
Though Brazile is in the house...

Why not? (5.00 / 1) (#17)
by WS on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:18:53 PM EST

She has every right to run again. McCain did and he's 72 years old and life has taken a much harsher toll on his body too. And he's even close in the polls when it shouldn't even be close at all. I don't think people should say "it can't be done" on this. Who knows what will happen in the future but I'm not counting Hillary out. You can tell from her convention speech that she still has her eyes on the prize.


well (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by connecticut yankee on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:29:47 PM EST

She would only be 68. Thats not bad.


They talked about her wrinkles and her aging (5.00 / 1) (#70)
by andrys on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:23:02 PM EST

this year. That's what a woman candidate faces.

In 8 years it sets in more. And, at this point, too many people do care about that, so it'd be a tougher go for her.


: Kay Bailey Hutchison (none / 0) (#72)
by WS on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 08:31:41 AM EST

looks great at 65. They should share beauty regimen tips. Sure she'll look older but like someone said sometime ago, she'll look fine with a Maggie Thatcher/Golda Meir stateswoman look.

well, she's had her chances. (2.00 / 1) (#31)
by Salo on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:29:13 PM EST

Obama will probably be a one term flash in teh pan.


: If the bail out is that big... (none / 0) (#53)
by Salo on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:39:41 PM EST

...he's got massive probelms to overcome just keeping his presidency afloat. I'm also predicting a win for Obama in 2008. So the low rating was gratuitous. He's going to have bigger problems than Carter ever faced.

Watching Diane Sawyer's interview with McCain (none / 0) (#13)
by stefystef on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:11:37 PM EST

I can't believe his mother is like 96 years old.
She looks fantastic. And is very clear-minded.
Maybe she should be running instead of her son.

: I know his mom is great but..... (none / 0) (#35)
by Maria Garcia on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:31:00 PM EST

...so is Biden's mom.

My Predictions: (none / 0) (#19)
by santarita on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:19:42 PM EST

Obama comes in a winner because he will make intelligent responses and won't get rattled.

Lehrer will come in second because he won't ask more than one or two stupid gotcha questions.

The pundits that comment after the show will come in third because they will analyze the color and size of the flag lapel pins and how 'Presidential" one or the other looked and fail to address the substance.

McCain comes in last because he will spend most of the night spouting Republican talking points and trying to insult Obama.

RCP: Obama/Biden 286 v McCain/Palin 252 (none / 0) (#20)
by robrecht on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:21:05 PM EST

Real Clear Politics No Toss Ups Electoral College count has been stuck at 273-265 (Obama) since August 24. Today, they started predicting Virginia for Obama. It's really close and could slide back the other way tomorrow, but it's a nice bit of news.

I want to know (none / 0) (#37)
by Steve M on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:33:41 PM EST

when BTD is going to be on C-SPAN. Has that been announced yet? Is it before or after?

Not before (none / 0) (#39)
by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:35:08 PM EST

Maybe not after at this point.

Grrr. But I will be a voice, not a face.

Not because I have a face for radio or anything . . .


: ahhhhh....:-) (5.00 / 1) (#45)
by coigue on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:37:23 PM EST

be sure and let us know if you hear when you are on.

: just don't chew gum dude. (none / 0) (#47)
by Salo on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:37:59 PM EST

You should also add some snippets of your voice in youtube links. Let's hear the voice that berated a thousand PUMAs.

: It will be interesting (none / 0) (#56)
by Steve M on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:44:35 PM EST

Your blogging voice is always so serious!

We wouldn't want him to interrupt (none / 0) (#41)
by andgarden on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:35:11 PM EST

Jason Altmire and Debbie Wasserman Schultz!


C-Span Dos (none / 0) (#44)
by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:37:12 PM EST

if at all.


: Ah, well (none / 0) (#49)
by andgarden on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:38:14 PM EST

Vrignia Fox is giving a pro-segregation speech on 1.

There was some executive (none / 0) (#50)
by oculus on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:38:23 PM EST

mucky-muck from Politico on camera for a very, very long time after one of the conventions. Responded to callers and did his thing.


Out of the Past to Destroy the Future (none / 0) (#46)
by McCainBush08 on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:37:37 PM EST

The Deregulator

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjt6yrkjzAE

This one's for you, Jeralyn! (none / 0) (#52)
by robrecht on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:39:23 PM EST

Only Palin can save McCain, her party, and the country she loves. She can bow out for personal reasons, perhaps because she wants to spend more time with her newborn. No one would criticize a mother who puts her family first.
Do it for your country.

Kathleen Parker at NRO Link

CNN says 59% think Obama will win. (none / 0) (#58)
by Teresa on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:46:55 PM EST

High expectations to meet.

And if past experiences are .. (none / 0) (#60)
by Robot Porter on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:50:39 PM EST

prologue on this that would mean McCain wins the debate.

But I wouldn't bet big money on it.

My actual guess is that it will probably be a rather clumsy and awkward affair with both candidates not at their best.

But who knows?

That's why we watch.


It's immaterial in many ways. (5.00 / 1) (#65)
by Salo on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:53:57 PM EST

Gore certainly won every debate but he media decided to replay the sighs ad nauseum. So they will just pick something about McCain that amounts to a tick and they will bury him. I think the press are sick of supporting the GOP these days. They know a sinking ship, like any good bilge rat.


: Kerry won all the debates too IMO (none / 0) (#69)
by stefystef on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 08:01:09 PM EST

but the media lowered the bar for Bush so much that even one complete sentence outta his mouth seemed like genius.
I wonder if they are going to do the same since it is obvious that Obama is far more superior as a speaker and had more practice in the debates. After February, McCain didn't have to debate anymore.
Anyway, the debate is starting... it's 9am.

crikey. (none / 0) (#62)
by Salo on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:51:33 PM EST

he's going to be completely blindsided by the Mcacin claims that Iraq was a victory...even if a bloody pricey victory. The anchors will all concur on that point and help McCain there. Yet they will slam his backside over the economy.


: Remember ... (5.00 / 1) (#64)
by Robot Porter on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:53:11 PM EST

it's not the initial reaction that is the lasting one.
The real reaction takes a few days to surface.

During the coverage of the (none / 0) (#67)
by tigercourse on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:55:13 PM EST

final race of the Olympic Decathlon, they said that the leader Brian Clay would have to fall down several times to lose. Obama is in that same position. From now until November, he will have to screw up big, and very often to lose this race.

Just stay in your own lane Obama, and don't get your feet tangled up.


Out of the Past to Destroy the Future (none / 0) (#63)
by McCainBush08 on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:51:57 PM EST

McCain, the Deregulator.

well (none / 0) (#66)
by connecticut yankee on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:54:39 PM EST

Silly to think Obama will win but he doesnt have to. He just needs to fight it as close to a draw as possible. THis is McCain turf.

They just said on CNN that there is a strong democratic and independant cast to the undecideds so Obama just needs to look good enough to scoop them up.

the live thread is up (none / 0) (#68)
by Jeralyn on Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 07:57:13 PM EST

here. Come and join BTD, the TL Kid and me.