Tag: South Carolina 08 (page 2)
It's pretty much a given that Barack Obama will win South Carolina as polls show that the African American population there overwhelmingly supports him and makes up 50% of Democratic voters.
While Hillary isn't going to concede South Carolina, she's not going to fight the obvious: She'll be leaving the state following the debate to spend tomorrow and Wednesday in Feb. 5 states -- specifically, California, New Mexico and New Jersey. She'll return to South Carolina Thursday.
Because the state is a must-win for Obama, he'll be there all week.
South Carolina has become a must-win state for Obama since Clinton prevailed in New Hampshire and Nevada. He was expected to campaign here all week.
That gives Hillary several more days than Obama in the critical Feb. 5 states. Compare the numbers: South Carolina has 2.5 million registered voters, 54 total delegates (45 committed) and 8 electoral college votes. On Tsunami Tuesday,
Some 1,678 delegates are at stake that day, compared to 45 in South Carolina.
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Hillary: I'm looking to bring our troops home. Here's why.
Edwards: We'd all end the war. The question is how aggressively. He's said all combat troops will leave and no permanent military installations.
Obama says he wants to be careful about how we get out. How do we create stable Iraqi government without permanent military installations? (Will he have an answer? No. He veers off to what we could buy at home with the money. )
Finally, a commercial break after 1 hour and ten minutes. Post-commercial updates below:
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The debate starts now. I will be live blogging as much as I can. Jeralyn will be live blogging as well.
Please chime in with your thoughts.
Pre-game. Suzanne Malveaux and Joe Johns of CNN will be joining Wolf Blitzer with the questioning. Malveaux and Johns state that the focus of the debate will be the economy. But that all the others will be covered.
Update (TL): The applause was pretty equal at the beginning. They start with the economy. The first question goes to Hillary. It’s a specific answer with details of her new economic plan. She contrasts it to Bush’s plan, not the plan of the other candidates.
Obama:answers, beginning with a reference to Martin Luther King, Jr. He too goes after Bush but mentions Hillary's plan. He's not as confident as Hillary, but recovers when he is asked a question by Wolf Blitzer. Edwards is up next. Updates below.
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Just in from CNN: Here's the transcript of the first set of zingers between Hillary and Obama. I'll fix the spacing later.
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After losing Nevada handily yesterday to Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama is no doubt very happy to be competing in South Carolina this week. That primary is next Saturday, January 26, and Obama is heavily favored holding double digit leads in most polls.
The chances of Obama losing in South Carolina seem almost nonexistent. He has completely solidified his support in the African American community, which will comprise half of the electorate. Obama will win African Americans by 4-1 over Clinton, which will get him to 40% on that vote alone.
But there is a pitfall for Obama. In the last two primaries, he has been drubbed by Clinton among Democratic voters. If South Carolina is close and Obama's victory is solely fueled by overwhelming support by African Americans, Obama risks getting a label he has fought hard to avoid - that he is the black candidate. It would be an entirely unfair label, but it could be attached to him.
More . . .
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Newsweek presents four pages of interview excerpts on the topic:
Vying for the Black Vote
Will Clinton's Martin Luther King comment cost her black support in the South Carolina primary? A veteran of the civil rights movement weighs in.
Who's the veteran of the civil rights movement? An Obama supporter.
How will the controversy affect voting in the state, where roughly 50 percent of the Democratic electorate is black? Cleveland Sellers, who heads the department of African-American studies at the University of South Carolina, is an Obama supporter. He's also a veteran of the civil rights movement.
Shame on Newsweek for not presenting a neutral voice or an additional voice so both sides could be presented.
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In running through the Iowa results by county (map here, alphabetical list here), it's clear Obama outdid Hillary the most in the more densely populated urban areas like those around Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Davenport. Comparing the counties where the vote numbers were in the thousands, like Johnson and Black Hawk, to Iowa as a whole using census results, there's some interesting numbers which could be bad news for Hillary in South Carolina -- an early voting state the media keeps saying will turn on the African American vote.
Iowa is mostly white, 95%. But the counties with thousands of voters and in which Obama trounced Hillary have higher percentages of non-white voters and fewer older voters.
For example, according to the census reports:
- Black Hawk County with 126,000 people is 8.1 percent African-American compared to the state wide African-American population of 2.1 %. It's white populaton is 89% compared to 94.6% state wide. 13.7% live below the poverty line (compared with 10.5% state wide). In yesterday's caucus vote, Black Hawk went 43% for Obama and only 28% for Hillary. Edwards came in third with 27%.
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