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Qunnipiac: Obama Leads in Ohio, PA

Quinnipiac released its final big swing state poll this morning. Obama is ahead in Ohio and PA. Florida is too close to call.

"Sen. Obama appears headed for the best showing of any Democratic candidate among white voters in a generation, going back at least to Jimmy Carter in 1976 and perhaps even to Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Obama leads by 10 in PA and 7 in Ohio. He's up 2 in FL, within the margin of error. As for McCain's last stand in PA:

"In the end, Sen. John McCain's troops in Central Pennsylvania, led by veterans, disaffected Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters and God and gun clingers, will be swept over by a wave of young black and urban new voters, giving Sen. Barack Obama the Keystone State," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

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Final USA Today/Gallup Poll: Obama By 11

The final USA Today/Gallup Poll is out. Obama is ahead of McCain by 11 points -- 53% to 42%. This is interesting:

Obama's favorable rating is 62% -- the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup's final pre-election polls going back to 1992.

USA Today's Washington bureau chief, Susan Page writes: [More...]

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McCain: What If?

I don't think there's any doubt that if, as virtually universally anticipated, McCain loses the presidential election on Tuesday, it's because of two things: the economy and his choice of Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential candidate.

Columnist Earl Ofari Hutchinson puts them in perspective, by asking, what if McCain had picked Mitt Romney as his running mate. I've wondered the same thing but he says it much better and more succinctly than I would, so read it and see if you don't find yourself nodding along in agreement with his logic. I sure did. [More...]

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At Least Six Bush States Trending to Obama

The San Francisco Chronicle examines the changing electoral map. Highlights:

In the RealClearPolitics' average of polls today, Obama was ahead, at least slightly, in most swing states: Colorado (5.5 percentage points), New Mexico (7.3), Nevada (5.8), Virginia (3.8), Pennsylvania (7), Florida (4.2), Ohio (4.2) and North Carolina (0.3). McCain had edges in Arizona (3.5 points), Georgia (3), Montana (3.8), Missouri (0.7) and Indiana (0.5).

Early voting indicators are problematic for McCain:

In North Carolina, 2.6 million people have already voted, with Democrats outpacing Republicans 51 percent to 31 percent, according to state figures. In Colorado, where more than half of the vote may come in before election day, a recent Associated Press poll showed Obama leading 57 percent to 34 percent among early voters.

More...

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McCain and Palin Returning to Colorado - Separately

The latest Colorado Poll released (Denver Post-Mason Dixon) has Sen. Barack Obama leading John McCain by 5 points.

Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 44 percent. Colorado unaffiliated voters, the critical voting bloc making up more than one-third of the state electorate, are backing Obama 57 percent to 32 percent. Four percent of those polled, however, were still undecided.

I noted Friday that the Obamas have made four visits to Colorado in the past week and that Michelle Obama will be here Monday night.

McCain and Palin have added last minute Colorado stops to their itineraries. Palin will be in Colorado Springs Monday while John McCain will be coming to Grand Junction, another Republican stronghold at noon on Election Day.

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Obamas Making More Stops in Colorado Before Tuesday

Earlier today I wrote about the latest Colorado poll showing Obama still with a big lead over John McCain. A reader asked me if I'm ready to call Colorado for Obama yet.

I thought I was, but now I'm having second thoughts. He was just in Denver and Fort Collins last week, so why are he and Michelle coming back to Colorado tomorrow to do a rally in Pueblo? Pueblo is a Democratic county. Maybe it's just that early voting turnout in Pueblo has not been as high as other places. As of today:[More...]

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Final PPP State Polls: Obama Leading Big Among Independents

Public Policy Polling's final state polls are out. It's looking good for Obama among Independents.

  • Colorado: Obama 60-36
  • Michigan: Obama 53-40
  • Minnesota: Obama 55-37
  • New Mexico: Obama 66-28
  • Oregon: Obama 53-41

Obama is also getting more Republican votes than John McCain is getting Democrat votes.

To see the actual polls, here's Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon.

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PPP CO Poll: Obama Up By 10

Public Policy Polling has released new state polls. In Colorado, Obama leads by 17 among those who have already voted and 10 overall:

65% of the folks we surveyed said they had already voted, and among those respondents Obama is winning 58-41. Folks planning to vote on election day support John McCain 50-47, bringing Obama's overall lead down to ten points.

...Two of the main factors driving Obama’s success in the state continue to be his strong standing with independents and Hispanic voters. He is up 60-36 with voters who don’t identify with either party, and he has a 65-33 lead with Hispanics, the fastest growing voter bloc in the state.

In the Senate race, Democrat Mark Udall is now up by 17.

Full Colorado results are here (pdf).

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NYT/CBS Poll: 59% Say Palin Unqualified, Hurting John McCain

Among the more notable findings in today's New York Times/CBS News poll is that 59% of voters say Gov. Sarah Palin is not qualified for the job of Vice-President. On October 8, it was 50%.

All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said that Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up 9 percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said that the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favored Senator Barack Obama.

As to how his choice of Palin has damaged McCain's image: [More...]

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AP-GfK Battleground State Poll:

A new AP-GfK poll in 8 battleground states has Obama ahead or tied in all of them, including four states that Bush won in 2004.

The states are: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

The polling shows Obama leading in Ohio (7 percentage points), Nevada (12 points), Colorado (9) and Virginia (7), all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes. Sweeping those four — or putting together the right combination of two or three — would almost certainly make Obama president.

Obama is winning by double-digits in PA and NH. Ohio has 20 electoral votes, PA has 21 and FL has 27. Nevada has 5, Colorado 9, NC 15 and Virginia 13.

On issues, Obama leads on almost every one from the economy to health care. He pulls even with McCain or leads on national security.[More...]

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AZ Poll: Obama Within 2 of McCain

A new Arizona poll finds John McCain's lead over Obama reduced to 2 points -- a statistical tie.

The same poll last month had McCain up by 7.

Today's LA Times/Bloomberg poll has Obama ahead in both Ohio and Florida.

The Washington Post reports McCain will focus on the economy in the coming week rather than national secuirty.

Does anyone care anymore what he focuses on?

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Why McCain Doesn't Have the Numbers to Win

Sure, as I've been saying for a few months, the election is now about turnout. Even so, ABC News boils down the electoral map in such a way that it seems impossible John McCain can win:

If McCain doesn't win Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes, he would have to run the table and win all eight of the competitive states that were held by President Bush in 2004, including Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Nevada.

...If you take all four of these states that will be decided relatively early on Election Night next Tuesday -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida -- McCain has to win three out of four of those states to even have a chance of getting to 270 electoral votes.

It gets worse for McCain: Even Montana is no longer a sure thing and McCain has begun advertising there this week. [More...]

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McCain Says He Won't "Coddle Criminals"

Via Sentencing Law and Policy where law prof Doug Berman provides his own thoughts, Sen. John McCain has an op-ed today in the National Law Journal outlining his views of criminal justice and the role of judges.

Terrorists are not the only threat to public safety. Lax enforcement policies, judges who legislate from the bench and lack of support for law enforcement personnel all continue to force our innocent citizens behind the barred windows of their homes and allow criminals to roam free.

And now drugs are bringing waves of crime and organized gang activity to rural areas thought to be nearly immune from such problems. The federal government must both support state and local law enforcement and effectively enforce federal laws designed to root out violent crime, organized gangs and other interstate criminal activity.

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Obama's Latest Ad: McCain is Out of Time and Ideas

"New Subject" highlights that John McCain is out of ideas, out of touch and running out of time. With no plan to lift our economy up, John McCain is trying to tear Barack Obama down with scare tactics and smears.

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Des Moines Register Endorses Obama

The Des Moines Register has endorsed Barack Obama for President. Why not John McCain?

But it's as if McCain has lost his way, forfeiting principle for gain of a few points in the polls. He put on hold his long-sought quest for comprehensive immigration reform. Though widely regarded as a man of honor, he has overseen a campaign premised on purposeful distortions about Obama and his record.

Worst of all, in grasping for political edge in his choice of a running mate, he burdened his ticket and potentially the country with an individual utterly unqualified to ascend to the presidency. Before choosing Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain emphasized the importance of experience and sound judgment in fighting terrorism and confronting a restive Russia and a rising China. He has also questioned Obama's readiness to be commander in chief. Then he picked a running mate who clearly isn't ready.(emphasis supplied.)

On the plus side for Obama, besides the economy and his inspiring of voters: [More...]

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