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ABC Says Biden Backtracking on Denial

ABC says Biden backtracked a little on his denial that he is Obama's Veep pick. My response:

And a shout-out to Jerome at MyDD.

It's also looking less likely Hillary or Kathleen Sebelius will be the choice. ABC News says Obama's been using the "he" pronoun today rather than his customary "he or she."

I still say it's more likely Kaine than Biden.

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Thoughts on Why Obama Might Pick Kaine

I think politico-types are reading too much into the veep-stakes' tea leaves. On the most basic level, consider the obvious:

  • Kaine is the only one of the final choices without a convention speaking slot
  • Obama and Kaine are speaking together tomorrow in Virginia.

On another level, consider that Barack Obama and the Democratic party have made it clear the emphasis this year is on faith. It's going to be a faith-based convention. Obama has always been hope and change, and people tend to focus too much on the change. Hope, which equates with faith, is an equal part of his message.

Here's Tim Kaine on why he went into politics: [More...]

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Hillary to Richardson: A Shrug or a Hug?


(larger version here.)

The LA Times asks whether Hillary Clinton gave Bill Richardson a shrug or a hug Monday while campaigning for Barack Obama in New Mexico.

Here's the video, you decide.

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NY Times: No Veep Announcement Before Wednesday

The New York Times reports Obama's campaign says there will be no Veep announcement Tuesday. The Times thinks it's down to Kaine, Bayh and Biden.

The spin for those who don't like the Veep pick will be that Veep picks don't really matter.

“Vice-presidential candidates can make a marginal difference,” said Matt Bennett, the co-director of Third Way, a Democratic advocacy group, “but they rarely matter in terms of winning a state or region — as Mike Dukakis and John Kerry found out. And a weak candidate doesn’t really drag the ticket into the drink — as George H. W. Bush found out.”

Tell that to George McGovern -- Thomas Eagleton, anyone?

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Monday Night Veepstakes Thread

I'm back to thinking Sen. Barack Obama will pick Virginia Governor Tim Kaine as his running mate.

Drudge quotes a New York Times reporter as saying the announcement could come tomorrow morning, but is more likely to occur Weds. morning. A Washington Post reporter thinks Friday is more likely.

Obama will be in Virginia on Wednesday. Also significant is this WaPo article about Obama's emphasis on Virginia. While some say the Dems wouldn't have given Mark Warner the convention keynote speaker slot if the VP also was from Virginia, I think they might, given how much effort Obama is putting into registering new voters in Virginia in hopes of turning the state blue. [More...]

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Recap of Obama-McCain Faith Forum

Our earlier thread on this is full. Here's a news article with a recap of Senators Barack Obama and John McCain's answers at tonight's faith forum.

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Obama Ignoring Arkansas

The New York Times reports that Sen. Barack Obama has no campaign offices in Arkansas and hasn't visited the state since 2006. Even though,

Arkansas has a Democratic governor, an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature, two Democratic United States senators and three Democratic Congressional representatives out of four.

The Democratic presidential primary here drew 80,000 more voters than the Republican one. And though the state voted for President Bush in 2000 and 2004, the two previous elections went handily to its native son, Bill Clinton.

What's up with this? Is it a sign that other than the southern states with large African American populations like North Carolina, Georgia and Virginia, he's not even going to try to win southern rural voters? [More...]

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Report: Obama Tells Wesley Clark "No Thanks"

Steve Clemons at the Washington Note reports that Sen. Barack Obama's campaign has told Gen. Wesley Clark his services aren't needed at the Democratic National Convention in Denver. Clemons adds in an update:

I have reconfirmed with General Wesley Clark's office that he has not been asked to play a role at the Democratic National Convention. His staff have told me that while his schedule remains tight, he would rearrange his schedule to help play any constructive role on any days of the convention if asked.

If true, I guess that means Clark will not be the Veep candidate. Too bad. He would have been a great choice and brought a lot to the ticket in November.

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Can We Cross Off Richardson, Biden and Bayh from Veepstakes?

The Democratic National Convention Committee announced more added speakers to Wednesday's lineup. Earlier, I reported on Sen. Ken Salazar. Now, there's another press release (no link yet) that says the following have been added:

Governor Bill Richardson and Senators Evan Bayh, Joe Biden and Jay Rockefeller will echo Obama’s call for a new direction in national security and outline his policies and plans to secure America’s future.

I think that means we can cross them off the list. Who's left? General Wesley Clark and Tim Kaine come to mind. [More...]

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Veep Stakes: Latest Tea Leaves

The Denver Post reports Sen. Ken Salazar will speak Wednesday night at the Democratic National Convention, but he isn't the Veep pick.

Who's left? According to the Post, only those without a speaking slot at the Convention. That includes:

  • Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine,
  • New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson,
  • Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana,
  • Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware and
  • former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn.

What about General Wesley Clark?

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Campaigns to Target Specific Groups in Swing States

U.S. News and World Reports has a new series of articles on the primary target groups of voters for both the Obama and McCain campaigns in the swing states in November.

THE WEST

McCain is confident he'll grab the Western states with Republican tendencies, and instead plans to lay out serious campaign cash in places with big electoral troves like Ohio, Florida, and Michigan. Obama, parsing the electorate map, has sensed opportunity out west, and has a rich supply of private donations to go after those voters. And, with the Mountain West in transition, the long Democratic primary season helped the party register new and more enthusiastic voters.

More...

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The Pros and Cons of Sen. Evan Bayh

The New York Times examines the pros and cons of Indiana Senator Evan Bayh as Sen. Barack Obama's vice presidential candidate.

Shorter version: The cons are that his early pro-war position stands in stark contrast to Obama's repeated emphasis on his own early opposition to the war in Iraq and Bayh is bland and unlikely to excite voters.

The pros are he has economic experience and his youthful appearance bolsters Obama's message of "generational change."

If not Bayh, then who? Sebelius or Kaine or someone the media has overlooked or counted out?

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