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Progressive Disaster Looming: Feingold Down Double Digits

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections
Posted on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 10:52:39 AM EST
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Need a sense of urgency? Russ Feingold is well down in his re-election race:

New PPP results for dkos, will post tomorrow -- Feingold down by double digits, MASSIVE intensity gap. W/o gap, it'd be tied race.

This should be the fight of the election for progressives (along with the Boxer race). I'm donating again. Feingold sends this video:

Fight for Russ. He fights for progressives.

Speaking for me only

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    Progressive Disaster Looming: Feingold Down Double Digits | 37 comments (37 topical)

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    Panic for Dems went way up last week (5.00 / 2) (#5)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:27:12 AM EST
    in Wisconsin, per this report.
    But Feingold has been worrying for quite a while -- I recall posting here months ago that I never had seen him mount such a fundraising operation.  Fortunately, Feingold did put together his best war chest yet, and his ads now do go on attack.

    So other state Dems ought to have listened some time ago, but too many must have thought that the 2008 election was a trend and not a fluke in the state that was closest in 2000 and 2004.  And the head of the party, the gov, checked out a while ago and let the White House take over the gov race . . . so it also is not looking good for Dems.

    In sum, it's past time for the White House to really whomp it up here -- but as also noted here, when Obama came to the state on Labor Day, the White House had not checked Feingold's schedule, so he couldn't be there.  Not that he needed, as he knew, to be in front of union members in Milwaukee; he has got that bloc, and they will turn out.

    So where will Obama be on his return to Wisconsin next week?  Madison.  Another Dem stronghold, and now Feingold's hometown, so again not needed.

    Obama needs to hit the area that has made a difference for Dems of late, the area that Gore won back for Dems in 2000 to win the state, the area where Russ preferred to be on Labor Day:  southwestern Wisconsin along the mighty Mississippi, with Dems votes strength centering in the city of LaCrosse. (Of course, the recent attention to Minnesota voters allegedly crossing the river to vote a second time in Wisconsin, too, may mean that strength was deceptive -- but the reports allege it occurred only in 2008.)

    I disagree (none / 0) (#10)
    by jbindc on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:41:52 AM EST
    In sum, it's past time for the White House to really whomp it up here -- but as also noted here, when Obama came to the state on Labor Day, the White House had not checked Feingold's schedule, so he couldn't be there.

    This is simply not true.  Their staff and campaign schedulers are paid to change things like this at the last minute - Feingold's schedule could have been changed if he wanted it to, no matter what the "official" version of the story was put out. (A family member and some friends work here in DC as schedulers to cabinet members and members of Congress and other high ranking officials - these changes happen all the time - much to the chagrin and blood pressure of said schedulers.  Many times said schedulers are frantically working their Blackberries until all hours of the night to make such changes, but the changes get made).

    Pure and simple, Feingold was distancing himself from the prez with Labor.

    Parent

    I know you do, but I continue (none / 0) (#15)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:54:39 AM EST
    to stand by my reply on this, pre-Labor Day.  Russ had been with Obama here just weeks before, and I expect that he will be with Obama here next week.  And to test what Feingold's office said, I looked at the schedule of the other events, and it held up.  (No, you cannot just change those so easily and expect to still have a crowd there that night -- and Russ really, really needed to be in poor Janesville, above all, to hold his old hometown by getting out the vote amid such discouragement.)

    And I was at the Obama event on Labor Day, and it was big and energetic, as I expected.  I don't see evidence of a large falloff of labor support, at all -- and the message is more than clear here about the anti-labor aims of the GOP.  

    There is much more to note, but if you weren't persuaded last time, you won't be this time -- and I must spend my time on other matters so will agree to disagree.  And wait and see.

    Parent

    If it were in the best interests of the party (none / 0) (#17)
    by jbindc on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 12:06:10 PM EST
    And if Russ thought it would help him get re-elected, yes, it would have happened, regardless of whether or not they were together weeks before or not.  And while it isn't easy to do, this kind of scheduling change gets done all the tome in an election year, on bigger scales, with much shorter time frames than a few days out.

    This says more about the relationship and feings of Labor and was very telling for the strategy.

    Parent

    Russ WAS in Milwaukeee earlier (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by Ben Masel on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 12:22:39 PM EST
    that day, marching in the Parade to Laborfest.

    xoff suggests that he kept his scheduled commitments in kenosha and janesville becau7se he'd not have made the media coverage if he had stuck around, with all the clips just running Obama anyway.

    Parent

    Who are the independents (none / 0) (#12)
    by hookfan on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:43:21 AM EST
    going for? WSJ is reporting that nationally independents are breaking by large margins (25% iirc) for GOP.

    Parent
    Apparently (none / 0) (#29)
    by hookfan on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 01:10:04 PM EST
    they break 2 to 1 against Feingold.
     Also, a majority of Wisconsin voters apparently are finding the historic insurance reform legislation obnoxious. Wonder how they're feeling about the double digit insurance premium hikes they are (or will be shortly)receiving? Especially when it's coupled with the persistent 7.5-8% UE in the state. And Obama's approval/disapproval is fairly split too.
     Makes me wonder if Russ isn't trying to distance from a not too popular Pres and his historic handiwork.
      Looks like it's high time for Russ to put on the ol' razzle dazzle. . .

    Parent
    Double-digit health insurance hikes (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 01:15:56 PM EST
    already are here and were reported in a front-page story in the state's major paper, probably just about the time that the poll was taken.  (I posted on them here then, if the timing is of interest.)  

    In a state already one of the highest for health insurance costs, Wisconsin already has seen 11% to 13% hikes on average -- and worse in the major city, where Milwaukee always has among the highest in the country, and worse at more than 20% for many small businesses.  

    Interestingly, I haven't seen many GOP ads hitting on that yet here.  I expect that they're being done now, with the front-page story on how hard we are being hit by the hikes, in addition to how hard we already were hit.  If the ads are good in getting this into soundbytes, yes, they may hit all Dems here (House, gov race, etc.).

    Parent

    And re unemployment (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 01:19:19 PM EST
    the persistent rate also has been a lot higher than that in the major Dem stronghold of Milwaukee and even worse, worst in the state, in the major Feingold stronghold of Janesville.  I think I have seen reports of it as bad in Green Bay, too.  La Crosse may be better, bordering on Minnesota (a lot of back and forth of workers on the border).

    Only the Dem stronghold of Madison has been immune -- even with the pay cuts to state workers, as so many of them in Madison got exempted. . . .

    Parent

    I'm less optimistic on the Gov race. (none / 0) (#26)
    by Ben Masel on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 12:40:21 PM EST
    Feingold's got a record, and narrative, in support of 2nd Amendment rights, while Barrett's a gungrabber from way back.

    Parent
    Large Dem turnout in Madison and MKE not enough? (none / 0) (#35)
    by NealB on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 02:53:56 PM EST
    Of course Feingold wants votes from all parts of the state where he can get them, but in a statewide election, aren't there still enough Democratic votes in Milwaukee and Madison for Feingold to win? Isn't it here (in Milwaukee) and Madison, where the "MASSIVE intensity gap" is going to be the determiner?

    Parent
    You pegged it (none / 0) (#37)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 03:12:58 PM EST
    as where else are there enough Dems for a massive intensity gap to occur?  

    Best hope for a sunny, warm, Indian summer sort of day, rather than an early November gale, huh?

    And best hope that the problems in the primary in our fair city are fixed; I know folks who ran into late openings at polling places in our part of town, NealB.  And some could not wait or go back.

    Parent

    Wisconsin... (5.00 / 4) (#6)
    by kdog on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:31:26 AM EST
    don't know how good they got it if these polls are to be trusted.  I'd trade Schumer, Gillibrand, and a legislator to be named later for Russ.

    Hope you're right Ben, and it's just whacky polling.

    I'll throw in a Rubio, Crist (5.00 / 0) (#7)
    by ruffian on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:34:35 AM EST
    AND a Bill Nelson.

    Parent
    I 'll definitely be willing to trade (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by MO Blue on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:40:29 AM EST
    my sweet Claire, maybe Robin and several MO Reps to be named later.

    Parent
    Man (none / 0) (#1)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 10:57:56 AM EST
    this is really, really, bad news.

    Not buying it (none / 0) (#2)
    by Ben Masel on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:21:49 AM EST
    and neither are any Wisconsin Republicans, as yet.

    I've been offering even money with a 100,000 vote point spread, minimum $50, but none have as yet accepted the bet.

    I suspect you're correct to an extent (none / 0) (#8)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:37:14 AM EST
    in that the gap is not double-digit wide.  But my hunch is that there is a gap sufficient for worry -- which is why Feingold has been worrying and getting ready for this fight that has been building for some time (see last election, etc.).  

    And I bet we agree that it's early days, only weeks since the Labor Day start of the campaign season -- and only days since the primary, when the gloves come off.

    Btw, I skipped the Pack game so could not say which ads ran in Milwaukee, if at all -- but good anti-Johnson ads are running in Milwaukee often.  However, Madison and Milwaukee are givens, so it would be more interesting to know what Feingold's media buy is in other areas, wouldn't it?

    Parent

    Worrying is what I'm doing (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:42:30 AM EST
    and Donating.

    Parent
    Good. Johnson is just (none / 0) (#13)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:47:33 AM EST
    unacceptable.  And don't wait to start worrying about Kohl's seat, next time. . . .

    Parent
    Madison TV goes much wider (none / 0) (#18)
    by Ben Masel on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 12:14:08 PM EST
    than Madison itself, especially for a Packers game.

    Parent
    Its worrying (none / 0) (#19)
    by Socraticsilence on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 12:15:43 PM EST
    but I think the reason Ben can't get a taker for his bet is the way incumbents almost invariably close- how many years have the Reps thought they were going to take Senate seats in NJ or have we thought we had a seat in say Florida or Kentucky- incumbents barring a scandal generally close very, very well- there's a reason they've held the seat for a while.

    Parent
    Debates. (5.00 / 3) (#22)
    by Ben Masel on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 12:25:30 PM EST
    Johnson's finally agreed to 3, Feingold wanted 6.

    In the first, PlasticMan will sag. In the second, he'll drip. In the third, he'll puddle.

    Parent

    Snort. But I bet (none / 0) (#23)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 12:30:31 PM EST
    that he'll puddle even sooner, if there is a question sooner about sunspots!

    Of course, he's got more of a mien for teebee than does Feingold.  So Johnson just has to hope that viewers are only viewers and mute the sound.  

    The debate debacle has been fun, anyway.

    Parent

    Yesterday's Packers broadcast (none / 0) (#3)
    by Ben Masel on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:25:45 AM EST
    I was surprised there was only 1 political ad, a Feingold positive just before the opening kickoff.

    The spot emphasized his independence, highlighting PATRIOT ACT.

    Maybe he should have spent less time (none / 0) (#4)
    by jtaylorr on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:26:46 AM EST
    talking up the budget deficit.

    Feingold lays it out for you as only Feingold can (none / 0) (#14)
    by Ellie on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:50:22 AM EST
    ... in this interview about the upcoming election.

    He said that his opponent, Ron Johnson, was trying to make a "stealth" senatorial grab by avoiding debates across Wisconson, avoiding media ops where he had to answer any direct questions -- notably about sweetheart deals he received from Big Bad Gubmint -- and, well, the usual GOP douchebaggery.

    Feingold truly is one of the good guys.

    The attack ads on the "sweet deals" (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 11:55:55 AM EST
    by which the GOP opponent grabbed many millions are really good and are running often, very often.

    Parent
    Are they 'Tubed? Feingold's a smart campaigner (none / 0) (#25)
    by Ellie on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 12:33:20 PM EST
    Calling for open debates at townhalls and taking his case directly to the people -- and calling for Johnson to come out of his hidey-hole.

    Evidently, Johnson first publicly agreed to a bunch and then (quietly, of course) whittled the number down and then began kicking up obfuscating dust by issuing all sorts of goofball limitations.

    Parent

    Oh, I bet that the ads (none / 0) (#27)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 12:58:45 PM EST
    are on Youtube, but why in the world would I look, since I see them and many more constantly whenever I turn on the teebee?!  But let me Google that for you.

    Parent
    He fights for progressives. (none / 0) (#21)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 12:22:49 PM EST

    Perhaps that explains why he is down in double digits.

    cuz all the blue dog dems (none / 0) (#24)
    by CST on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 12:32:05 PM EST
    are doing so well right now.

    Parent
    The Wisconsin House races (none / 0) (#28)
    by Ben Masel on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 01:00:23 PM EST
    All three Republicans are safe. Only Sensenbrenner drew a strong opponent, Todd Kolosso, but without outside money he's not closing the gap in a District which cast the most Republican votes in the country 2 years ago. (Tammy Baldwin had the most votes of any House Dem.)

    I'm moving my assessment of the 7th (currently represented by Dave Obey) to a fairly strong Republican lean. Julie Lassa's failed to establish her own identity, trying to run as generic Democrat, while Duffy's "lumberjack" ad is the best of the cycle so far. He has actual experience in competitive lumberjack events, so he comes off genuine in taking his "axe' to deficits. fits the Northwoods district. Lassa also blew off an important usually D constituency, siding with the Republicans in the State Senate Health Committee to kill the Jacki Rickert Medical Marijuana Act. (Medical marijuana polled at 75% in the district as of 2002, and Obey has been a strong supporter in the House.)

    In the 8th, a competitive 3 way Republican primary went to the guy hardest to portray as extremist. I still call it lean Dem, but Kagen can't afford any major miscues.

    Agree on all counts (none / 0) (#30)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 01:11:25 PM EST
    and I like Lassa, but I looked up Duffy's site as soon as he emerged and saw him as darn good -- especially for that ever-interesting area (not truly Dem so much as Populist and more like Minnesota's Farmer-Labor Dems, hard to pin down as Dem on all issues as well).  And thanks re the Kagen update; I meant to look up how that was going and have not gotten to it.  I had figured that the guy had so many disasters that he was doomed.  That we could hold the Green Bay area, that he might get out some votes there, could be good for the gov race.

    But I have to agree re Barrett, much as I admire the man who has represented me for decades, one way or t'other.  He just is not a fiery campaigner, and this is a year that calls for it.

    The thought of still being stuck with Walker, but with even more power over my life, is just awful -- as is the state budget; I just saw a presentation on projections.  It will be a perfect setup for Walker to play the same awful budget games that he has done here, but now to the detriment of the entire state.  (Except for Madison, of course, always immune from the worst of budget woes, and still in the only county not to really suffer from the recession.  Must be nice.)

    Parent

    Basic problem: You can't follow the money (none / 0) (#33)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 01:51:49 PM EST
    to Wisconsin, because it hasn't come -- the sort of pork that pols need for the people to feel that they're getting something for their money to the feds.  Wisconsin always is one of the lowest states in that ratio (48th for return of fed taxes, as I recall) -- in part because Feingold loves to be a maverick pol who doesn't do pork.

    But that really has become too obvious, and talked about, in terms of the bailouts and stimulus monies, with so little back to Wisconsin -- not the land of big banks and big business, but also not getting a fair share of education grants and such.  And we see -- it is reported -- how much is going to Illinois to the south of us, and it is pretty evident as to why. . . .

    For pity's sake, we repeatedly have been turned down even for FEMA funds after tornados and floods, while others around us get fast-tracked for aid.  Only a couple of days ago did we finally get FEMA to reverse such a decision on the disastrous floods here of this summer, so bad that we're still coping with a massive sinkhole at a major intersection in the most densely populated part of the state.  

    Oakland and North is passable now... (none / 0) (#34)
    by NealB on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 02:41:26 PM EST
    ...just drove through for the first time in two months. Still a huge construction pit in the middle of the intersection, but you can get through.

    Parent
    Yes, we saw it "semi"-open this weekend (none / 0) (#36)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 03:10:44 PM EST
    but it still is a mess for some routes we used to take (work, etc.) many days a week, and some bus routes still are affected, while work continues.

    So glad that so many of my neighbors can get FEMA help now, if needed, anyway.

    Parent

    Progressive Disaster Looming: Feingold Down Double Digits | 37 comments (37 topical)

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