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Boehner Backs Bailout. So Do Candidates. Will It Pass?

Rep. Paul Ryan, an "admired conservative" who in reality is getting by on his good looks, was against the bailout bill before he was for it. He expresses a view of the bailout upon which liberals and conservatives can all agree:

"It sucks."

So would the heralded economic collapse or the lesser catastrophes that are predicted by many in the absence of action. Having jammed a face-saving insurance program into the bill, key Republicans are showing reluctant support for its passage. House Minority Leader John Boehner is among them. Boehner recognizes that some Republicans who face tough reelection battles can't come on board, and that some will refuse on principle. He encouraged "every member of our conference – if their conscience will allow them to -- to support this bill." [emphasis added]

Predictions? Will Boehner and his buddies find enough loyal Republicans to get the bill passed? Will Democrats follow their leader?

[more...]

Fast-tracked legislation is a lot like fast food. It's satisfying but ultimately not very good for you.

Democrats substantially improved Henry Paulson's attempt to create a new branch of government -- the Bailout Czar, an autonomous position that, once funded with $700 billion, would be unaccountable to anyone on the planet. Whether the improvements will bring along enough Democrats is uncertain.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi refused late this evening to guarantee that it would pass. After intervening twice during marathon Saturday negotiations to force the Bush administration to accept further changes, the San Francisco Democrat said simply, "We did the very best we can to improve it. Now let's see how much support we get."

Republican support is critical to Democratic support.

Democrats said they want half of the House Republicans to vote for the bill, to force them to help carry the burden of an administration-led bailout.

The Republican leadership is gingerly seeking support from retiring Republican legislators and those who hold secure seats.

The presidential candidates "tentatively" support the bill.

"This is something that all of us will swallow hard and go forward with," McCain said on ABC's "This Week." "The option of doing nothing is simply not an acceptable option."

"My inclination is to support it," said Obama, his Democratic rival in the November 4 U.S. presidential election. "While I look forward to reviewing the language of the legislation, it appears that the tentative deal embraces these principles" the Illinois senator said on CBS' "Face the Nation," referring to requirements he said needed to be in the package. ...

Later at a rally in Detroit, Obama called the bailout an "outrage." "But we have no choice," he said in prepared remarks. "We must act now. Because now that we're in this situation, your jobs, your life savings and the stability of our entire economy are at risk."

Public sentiment:

Lawmakers from both parties this weekend said their e-mail and phone calls have overwhelmingly conveyed the same message: Don't do anything that even hints of a bailout for Wall Street executives.
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  • Display: Sort:
    Personally, I would vote for it (5.00 / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:08:37 AM EST
    if the alternative were doing nothing, and I think that's the case.

    Paul Krugman and the impending failure of Wachovia convinced me.

    If I were a Democratic (none / 0) (#2)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:29:44 AM EST
    Congressperson facing a tough reelection battle, and I'd read what Boehner told my Republican colleagues, and I read what the titular leader of my party, Sen. Obama, and the Speaker of the House had to say about the bill, I'd be wondering:  what is the safest thing for me to do if I want to return to Congress?

    Parent
    Well sure "pols are pols." (none / 0) (#3)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:37:57 AM EST
    but there's nothing like "compromise!" to get votes in the Congress.

    Parent
    But what if the Republicans (none / 0) (#6)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:52:19 AM EST
    decide their "consciences" bar voting for the plan, and maybe Obama doesn't show up for the vote?  

    Parent
    Obama can't vote Present on this one (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by BrassTacks on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:07:08 AM EST
    I keep thinking McCain will find a way to vote against it, knowing that it will pass without his vote.  Old style politics, the right thing gets done, AND you get the votes.  Win-win for a pol.

    Parent
    House votes first (none / 0) (#9)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:59:16 AM EST
    And once it passes the House, fait accompli IMO.

    My 6th sense tells me that this is the kind of legislation that goes over easier in the Senate.

    Parent

    I'd think that the congressperson X... (none / 0) (#5)
    by EL seattle on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:51:20 AM EST
    ...might find that the following would be a successful plan:

    Work, work, work.  Every week.  Visibly.  Work to fix the mess and get the project on track to be over and done in x-number of years.  Take less time off.  Schedule regular meetings with constituents to keep them appraised.  Even if everyone knows how boring they'll be.  But actively work, work, work on fixing the problem.  And act like you'll keep up at that routine for a few years at least. (And follow through with that, if re-elected.)

    Call it the "Al Gore" approach to working on the big problem.  If congressperson X will clearly, actively, and visibly do serious and consistent work to fix the problem, that will build respect, and respect should give the sort of gravitas to deflect easy shots on this issue.

    But that's just my guess.

    Parent

    What bugs me about Krugman... (none / 0) (#35)
    by lambert on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 07:57:02 AM EST
    ... is that he blessed a draft that staffers later told him would change substantially.

    Parent
    On the bright side (5.00 / 2) (#7)
    by Steve M on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:57:04 AM EST
    if the bailout somehow fails, perhaps it will be possible for us non-investment bankers to once again find affordable housing in the NYC metropolitan area.

    Rental? Or purchase all cash? (none / 0) (#8)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:58:27 AM EST
    Better hope $100k is enough (none / 0) (#10)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:59:38 AM EST
    if the banks implode. . .

    Parent
    Hehe (5.00 / 0) (#14)
    by Steve M on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:09:47 AM EST
    Who the heck are these people with more than $100,000 just sitting there in a depository account?!?

    Parent
    Maxed out donors, to begin with. (none / 0) (#17)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:15:55 AM EST
    But seriously, just where is $100k supposed to be safe? Treasury bonds you keep under the mattress?

    Businesses of any size won't be able to function if they have to worry that a bank is going to disappear over the weekend and zap a significant portion of their cash on hand.

    That's as good a reason as any to do something now.

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#20)
    by Steve M on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:17:15 AM EST
    If you or I had 100k, I assume we'd have it invested in something, not just sitting in cash!  Large corporations, well that's another matter, of course.

    Parent
    I have family members (none / 0) (#21)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:20:23 AM EST
    whom I could easily imagine have more than $100k in the bank. Sure, investments etc. But I'd like to think that a money market account would be safer than Coca-Cola stock.

    Parent
    Perhaps your family members (none / 0) (#24)
    by Steve M on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:25:34 AM EST
    would be interested in making a nice, safe real estate investment with me and my family...?

    Parent
    hehehehe (5.00 / 0) (#25)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:29:38 AM EST
    Right after I get that nice, safe, Ferrari. :D

    Parent
    Obama-Pelosi-Reed sold out the rank-and-file (5.00 / 4) (#11)
    by Mitch Guthman on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:01:13 AM EST
    I do understand that we needed to do something and quickly.  Nevertheless, this is a very disturbing portent of life under an Obama administration.   At the start of our consideration of the original Bush administration proposal, the Democratic critique focused on a few key points which our party felt needed to be in any bailout to make it even marginally acceptable:  Among these were greater accountability in the administration of the bailout, greater regulation of the financial services industry, caps on CEO and investment banker compensation, some kind of equity stake in the banks and a transparent means of valuing both the toxic waste we were buying and the warrants we would be receiving. Above all else, however, the main demand of rank-and-file Democrats was relief for people in danger of losing their homes.

    The Democratic leadership had tremendous leverage.  I truly believe that if they'd said "no deal" without a homeowner bailout and some sacrifices on the part of those benefiting from the bailout, they would have been able to get most, and perhaps all, of what they wanted.  Barrack Obama is the leader of the party that controls both houses of Congress. He has probably an insurmountable lead in the presidential race. His popularity and influence is enormous. He will almost certainly be the next president.  He himself has said that he spoke with Sec. Paulson, either crafting the original bill or, more likely, formulating the Democratic response. Yet, this bill is the very best he could do?  Or is it that he does not care about the same things as the rank-and-file of our party?  Perhaps he does not share our values?

    The fact that there is nothing about homeowner relief in this bill is an insult to rank-and-file Democrats everywhere! This was the main thing that the rank-and-file wanted in return for a bailout and we go nothing.  Nothing.   And I would respectfully disagree with BTD on this point: This bill has zero protection for homeowners and you may be absolutely certain that none will be forthcoming in an Obama administration.  The bailout, even the modified Dodd-Frank proposal, is extremely unpopular in the country----with conservatives and liberals alike. Considering that fact, Obama and our party leadership will never have greater leverage to enact reform or to help homeowners than they have right now.  So, the question for BTD really does present itself: What exactly do you think the Obama administration will do in the future that it wasn't willing or desirous of doing today? And why do you think it?

    This package is not worth $700 billion.  It does not meaningfully alter the system of excessive with executive compensation that got us into this situation.

    It requires no sacrifices of any kind on the part of bank executives, investment bankers and people like Warren Buffett. It provides no new regulations on Wall Street's use of derivatives. The plan includes only a single provision that was a part of the supposed Democratic agenda, namely, equity participation. But, as I say, even that is of doubtful value to taxpayers since there is no fixed formula for the equity interest we receive. In short, the Dodd-Frank plan is a lot like the original plan but with a couple of fig leafs added to fool the rubes.

    I am not prepared to make a gift of taxpayer money to Paulson's buddies on Wall Street. Not $700 billion, not $500 billion, not $100 billion, not anything.

    I say we should stop wining about McCain and start turning up the heat on our "leadership" to stand up and fight for our principles. We don't get something on each of these key points, then no deal and let the chips fall where they may.

    Quelle surprise: NOW NOW NOW was a scam (5.00 / 2) (#34)
    by lambert on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 07:54:56 AM EST
    The Dems fought for homeowner relief (3.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Manuel on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:12:03 AM EST
    However, the truth is that such a position would have caused even fewer Republicans to support the plan.  For whatever reason, the Dems could not stomach passing a Democratic only bill (would they have had the votes?).  What if Bush were to veto it?

    There is nothing in the current bill that prevents the next congress from working with an Obama administration on homeowner relief.

    Parent

    Passing a D only bill (2.00 / 1) (#19)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:16:48 AM EST
    would have been political suicide. It would have allowed the Republicans to demagogue against "irresponsible Democrats."

    Parent
    "Fought for" and lost, as per usual (none / 0) (#36)
    by lambert on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 07:57:51 AM EST
    after Obama signalled homeowner relief was off the table anyhow.

    Parent
    And Obama was working with Paulson and the (none / 0) (#39)
    by jawbone on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 08:46:03 AM EST
    "leaders" daily for two weeks on this Doing the Hanky Panky.

    I figure he gave up mortgage assistance very early on. Just a gut feeling.

    Bernhard of Moon of AL says this is essentially the initial 3-page Paulson Fix (Is In)--with window dressing.

    And the window dressing is to keep the voters confused so they'll vote for the incumbents.

    Parent

    Political reality (none / 0) (#44)
    by Manuel on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 09:12:52 AM EST
    I, for one, am glad that Obama and the Dems won't be like Bush and pretend the opossition doesn't exist.  In this case, including homeowner assistance in the bill would have been an overreach and tangential to the crisis at hand (and make no mistake this is a crisis).  There will time enough to deal with home ownership if the economy survives this.  This plan, even if passed may not work.

    Parent
    "the economy"?? (none / 0) (#46)
    by lambert on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 09:35:57 AM EST
    Whenever I hear "the economy," I ask "whose economy"?

    Not mine, for sure -- or anybody else who got thrown out on the street because some other "economy" than their personal one was deemed more important by their betters.

    And meanwhile, HOLC isn't on the table at all, which would have both kept people in their homes AND cleaned up the bank's balance sheets.

    Parent

    Both McCain and Obama are flunking this (5.00 / 3) (#12)
    by Manuel on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:05:03 AM EST
    This plan may not save us but doing nothing will doom us.  Here in Seattle, Safeco Insurance was just sold with the consequent likely loss of jobs.  Alaska Airlines is facing dire prospects.  McCain and Obama should be taking lead positions urging members of their respective parties to pass this legislation.  Alternatively, they should take a strong position in opossition if they really think the Fed and the Treasury are bluffing and this deal isn't in the best interests of the country.

    Great post (none / 0) (#15)
    by BrassTacks on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:11:01 AM EST
    I am angry at both of these, so-called, Leaders.  They need to LEAD.  

    Parent
    My local NYC news said it wasn't (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by nycstray on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:16:01 AM EST
    a "bail out", it was a "buy in", according to the "new" language/spin. They weren't terribly convincing. Nor did they try to be.

    Excuse me, but I prefer to select my purchases myself. I'd love to get to Obama's state, supporting but outraged. Neat trick. Can I have my house now?

    Not a bailout, a bust out (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by lambert on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 07:59:21 AM EST
    as in the Sopranos.

    If you get your house back, can I keep my pony there?

    Parent

    Just heard newest spin term--Not a bailout but a (none / 0) (#41)
    by jawbone on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 08:48:47 AM EST
    "bridge loan." Just like when you sell your house and have to close on your new house a few days before your old one's sale if final. See? Just a friendly, kind thing bankers do....

    Parent
    Lambert has post on how we're being scammed by (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by jawbone on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 09:04:25 AM EST
    Treasury (and our Dem leaders?) and WH. The need to have this legislation immiediately? Well, closed call from Treasury to financial insiders revealed they're not going to use the monies for a couple weeks, let things shake out some more, etc. LINK to Lamber's post.

    Tnjen linked to Naked Capitalism, which has recording of call on torrent.

    You know they say that you need second, third opinions for medical problems? Bcz to surgeon everything looks like it can be solved with surgery, so you should check with some other specialists?

    Well, maybe to a Wall Street operator every problem looks like it needs some that special financial "wizardry" which made the Fat Cats to very wealthy recently. More of the same. Since most people don't know that much financial terms and even underlying actions, it's pretty easy to bamboozle them.

    Have Dems been had by another Big Bamboozle? As they have been had by so much BushCo has done during the two Maladministrations?

    Looks like it--and when things are done in secret, makes it even easier to bamboozle and spin and obfuscate.

    Oh, my! Per local public radio, House vote is now underway!! Jim Moran is now thanking Barney Frank for saving Americans economy. And it's a good deal for the American tax payer. Hey, what could go wrong? Looks like "debate" is on, leading to vote.

    Will the Paulson Fix be In soon?

    TChris (none / 0) (#4)
    by lilburro on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:42:41 AM EST
    you really do make this sound like Star Wars.  I suppose we should count our blessings that we don't have an Emperor Paulson on our hands.  


    Are the whips on vacation? (none / 0) (#31)
    by oldpro on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 06:49:18 AM EST
    What's this crap about 'nobody knows how many votes there are?' Zezus...

    At least Tom DeLay could do 4th grade math...and that's the first and only complimentary thing I've ever said about him.

    Voting for this bill ... (none / 0) (#33)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 07:16:52 AM EST
    will be politically toxic in two years, when the economy is much worse than it is today.

    Many who vote for it will face tough re-election challenges in 2010.

    It will be the economic equivalent of voting for AUMF.  Actually it will probably be worse than that.

    Agree with that--far worse than AUMF (none / 0) (#43)
    by jawbone on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 09:07:55 AM EST
    And if it passes the House, I think the fix is in indeed for Senate passage.

    Jeb Hensarling up now saying no alternatives have actually been considered by Congress. It is a somewhat better bill, but he says it takes country in direction it should not go, that it may not work, that it if fraught with unintended consequences. Might govt make profit? Well, that is gamble, not a certainty.

    Parent

    So, Citigroup is taking over Wachovia. (none / 0) (#38)
    by tigercourse on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 08:00:08 AM EST
    Pass the legislation now.

    What does your comment mean? Or is it snark? n/t (none / 0) (#40)
    by jawbone on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 08:47:14 AM EST
    Bank failures in Europe now (none / 0) (#45)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 09:18:44 AM EST
    As LaRouche has pointed out for a long time now this is a global market problem and not simply confined to American markets and American businesses and American interests.  Here is LaRouche's opinion as well on how and why this bailout will fail to solve anything.  This is sad if this passes with Democrats names on it!  It is also my opinion that many posters need to read them some Lyndon LaRouche so that they can espouse my opinions on the bailout :).

    For those who are opposed to this bill (none / 0) (#48)
    by lizpolaris on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 09:46:04 AM EST
    there's a petition against it.  For whatever it's worth.

    Bernhard of Moon of AL links to The Big Picture (none / 0) (#49)
    by jawbone on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 10:32:21 AM EST
    Barry at The Big Picture points out that the window dressed Paulson Fix (Is In) allows banks to set their own assets' prices--not required to use Mark-to-market-pricing. Now, it will be Mark-to-fantasy-pricing or Mark-to-whatever works for your books-pricing. Or, more precisely, whateve works for your pocket book....

    Throughout this crisis, there has been chatter and attempts to stop the freefall in Housing prices -- something that is counter-productive. Unless we want a Japan like decade of recession, we need to allow the various bad assets to seek their own levels via the open market.
    ...
    A classic example of this misguided asset price focus is in the Bailout's suspension of mark-to-market pricing:

    SEC. 132. AUTHORITY TO SUSPEND MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING.

    (a) AUTHORITY.--The Securities and Exchange Commission shall have the authority under the securities laws (as such term is defined in section 3(a)(47) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (15 U.S.C. 78c(a)(47)) to suspend, by rule, regulation, or order, the application of Statement Number 157 of the Financial Accounting Standards Board for any issuer (as such term is defined in section 3(a)(8) of such Act) or with respect to any class or category of transaction if the Commission determines that is necessary or appropriate in the public interest and is consistent with the protection of investors.*

    ... Former SEC Chair Arthur Levitt lectures the Congress on why mark-to-market is so important.

    "That's why it's both dismaying and puzzling that as Washington debates the Treasury's bailout proposal, some of the largest banking and financial services trade groups are aggressively lobbying the SEC to suspend the mark-to-market, or fair-value, accounting standard currently in place, and to oppose any expansion of it.

    To ask for a suspension in fair-value accounting is to ask the market to suspend its judgment. These trade groups claim that the fair-value accounting standard has distorted banks' balance sheets, and has contributed significantly to the market's volatility.

    On the contrary, that gets things backward. It is accounting sleights-of-hand that hid the true risk of assets and liabilities these firms were carrying, distorted the markets, and have caused investors to lose the confidence necessary for our markets to function properly."
    ...
    The plan as it is currently constructed fails to recognize that Housing prices still remain elevated, more foreclosures are likely, and that another 10-20% downside in real estate is quite likely.(My emphasis)