Obama Up By 12 In Latest Iowa Poll

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 01:16:05 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain (all tags)

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The latest Iowa poll shows Sen. Barack Obama up by 12 points over McCain.

Key findings:

Independents prefer Obama to McCain, 49 percent to 36 percent.
Voters under 35 prefer Obama by two to one.
Obama leads among women, 53 percent to 39 percent for McCain.
Republicans are more satisfied with McCain’s running mate, Sarah Palin, than Democrats are with Joe Biden, Obama’s vice presidential pick.
President Bush’s approval rating with Iowans is at an abysmal 25 percent, with 71 percent disapproving.
Senator Chuck Grassley remains popular with Iowans, at 69 percent approval.

I take this as a sign Obama is resonating with rural voters. Hopefully, we'll see similar results in Ohio and other battleground states with high rural populations.

< Obama's Appeal to Rural Voters | What The Big Dog Said >

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Obama Up By 12 In Latest Iowa Poll | 10 comments (10 topical)

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Corn ethanol politics perhaps? (5.00 / 1) (#5)
by fafnir on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 02:44:51 PM EST

The results are interesting, since rural voters tend to be socially and fiscally conservative.

It would be interesting to find out what percentage of those polled support Obama because of his support for federal subsidies for corn-based ethanol production.

(Personally, I believe any ethanol subsidies should be targeted towards production of cellulosic ethanol rather than corn-based ethanol. The negative effects of the latter on the climate, environment, and world food prices outweigh any benefits -- 11% reduction in life-cycle emissions over gasoline -- of subsidizing this fuel source.)

: I am interested in this too (none / 0) (#6)
by nell on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 02:52:38 PM EST

My understanding is that his support for these programs was a HUGE factor in the primary.
Iowa is a lock, though, I don't see any way Obama loses this state.

Not worried about Iowa ... (none / 0) (#1)
by Robot Porter on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 01:19:48 PM EST

it's the only Bush '04 state I'm comfortable calling for Obama right now.

well (none / 0) (#2)
by connecticut yankee on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 01:24:15 PM EST

Captain Kirk is from Iowa. Nuff said.

: Will be. n/t (none / 0) (#4)
by LarryInNYC on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 02:30:58 PM EST

Rural populations are not monolithic (none / 0) (#3)
by Faust on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 01:33:57 PM EST

They vary greatly. In fact I would bet they have more variance than urban populations.

Obama up 4 in Virginia (none / 0) (#7)
by flyerhawk on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 03:06:45 PM EST

According to the consistently reliable SurveyUSA

That is a promising number. It is outside the margin of error.

: I was just going to post that (none / 0) (#8)
by JAB on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 03:24:31 PM EST

But it's a mixed bag...SUSA has McCain up by 4 in Ohio, including this age breakdown:
AGE McCain Obama
18-34 40% 53%
35-49 51% 42%
50-64 52% 45%
65+ 54% 41%

Iowa (none / 0) (#9)
by bigbay on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 03:56:42 PM EST

is not at all like Nebraska or a lot of rural America. It was settled by a different group(s) of people, and also has a lot more mid-sized cities, which means it's a lot more 'urban' than many people realize.

Another they don't like Mc Cain is because he constantly scolds about ethanol. Mind you, most Iowans don't support ethanol subsidies. It's Mc Cain's tone and moralizing that grates.

Old Folks in Iowa Always Vote (none / 0) (#10)
by LadyDem on Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 10:13:00 PM EST

I live in Iowa and I have been a pollworker many times. Despite the recent polls, I'm still nervous and I don't think Dems should be complacent.
Older Iowans (65+) are a huge voting bloc here and they vote in droves. This may be the last time current seniors can see someone of their generation in the Whitehouse and that's not something to discount. People like to vote for someone they think is like them. Also, we Dems have yet to get enough of the young voters to actually show up on election day.
Then, whether ethanol is good or bad, its production has had a huge impact on grain prices and you can bet that farmers will vote their bottom line like any business.

I'm just sayin', Iowa is no sure thing and we can't put it in the Win column yet.