Conventional Wisdom

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 05:45:29 PM EST
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Nate Silver writes:

I tend to agree with the conventional wisdom that there was liable to be a bit of a near-term backlash whenever Obama announced his VP choice, provided that the VP was not Hillary Clinton . . .

(Emphasis supplied.) Funny, I never heard that anywhere before except, oh yes here, on June 8:

I'd like to interrupt this Unity Day message with a small reminder to the Barack Obama campaign and the Democratic Party - unless he picks Hillary Clinton as his running mate - the day he announces his Vice Presidential candidate will be a day of disunity. . . . I hope he has a plan for re-unifying the Party the day after he insists on NOT unifying, indeed, in dividing the Party by not choosing Hillary Clinton as his VP.

If everyone "knew" this would happen, then how come no one mentioned it until now? Just sayin'

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< DNC: Tuesday Night 's Final Hour | Bloggers vs. Big Media at the DNC >

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Conventional Wisdom | 42 comments (42 topical)

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ouch. (5.00 / 1) (#1)
by Klio on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 05:49:07 PM EST

You're on a tear today.

And how insulting to have your original work termed "conventional wisdom!"

It was not (5.00 / 9) (#3)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 05:52:11 PM EST

conventional wisdom. Nate is FOS yet again.

This is the apologist in action - "of course every knew this would happen!" RELAX! Don't Worry, Be Happy.

I like the "near term" stunt too.

Let me tell you what is near term, the election.

[ Parent ]

: You should change your handle (5.00 / 2) (#13)
by Salo on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:08:54 PM EST

Master of the Bleedin' Obvious.

[ Parent ]
: Two months away. (5.00 / 3) (#14)
by chel2551 on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:09:04 PM EST

I sense a growing disturbance in the "Force."

[ Parent ]
: when my wife said she'd reconsider (5.00 / 2) (#21)
by Salo on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:17:04 PM EST

voting for Obama if he picked Clinton as veep , I expected a dip if he chose anyone else.

[ Parent ]
: ZING! (5.00 / 2) (#26)
by Faust on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:27:10 PM EST

Let me tell you what is near term, the election.

[ Parent ]
: precisely so. (5.00 / 0) (#30)
by Klio on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:33:46 PM EST

what a fraud.

[ Parent ]

I guess he's called you (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by tree on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 05:50:19 PM EST

"conventional". Are you going to take that kind of smear lying down? ;-)

Was not conventional (5.00 / 1) (#4)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 05:52:50 PM EST

on June 8, hell, it only became "conventional" today.

[ Parent ]

BTD, you're NEVER (5.00 / 1) (#7)
by tree on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 05:55:21 PM EST

conventional. Even after your wisdom becomes "conventional".

[ Parent ]

20/20 is the new Conventional Wisdom n/t (5.00 / 2) (#11)
by Iphie on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:07:19 PM EST

[ Parent ]

You need (5.00 / 3) (#20)
by MichaelGale on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:16:31 PM EST

write a book about this election and use all the material you have written.

Or at least write an article for the main stream press or a magazine piece.

I think it very important that this process gets out there, even after the election. Almost everyone else is in lockstep trashing and emotional frenzies.

There need to be another voice added to the few who are courageous enough speak about it.

Seriously.

[ Parent ]

: Totally agree (5.00 / 1) (#39)
by suki on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 07:33:43 PM EST

I really hope you do, BTD.

[ Parent ]

that's not an insult (none / 0) (#29)
by DFLer on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:30:47 PM EST

it's a compliment: You exhibited wisdom about the convention

[ Parent ]

WTF? (none / 0) (#44)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 07:58:56 PM EST

IF you want get technical about it, and your comment has nothing to do with my post, I wrote about in February BEFORE there were 18 million people.

Freaking fool.

[ Parent ]

fiive thirty eight (5.00 / 2) (#5)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 05:52:58 PM EST

Isn't that the Obama apologia site? Didn't he predict that Obama was going to get a landslide in Nov and carry all those states like ID?

I remember lots of bloggers bought into that sort of wisdom.

he's Poblano from Kos. (5.00 / 1) (#23)
by Salo on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:17:42 PM EST

right?

[ Parent ]

: I don't know. (none / 0) (#40)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 07:38:10 PM EST

Is he?

[ Parent ]

The word "wisdom" (none / 0) (#37)
by Landulph on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 07:27:39 PM EST

being used advisedly. natch.

[ Parent ]

While sane people knew there was going (5.00 / 4) (#10)
by PssttCmere08 on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:03:13 PM EST

to be backlash, the question remains: What the hell is the obama camp thinking?

: triple whammy to many PUMAs! (5.00 / 3) (#25)
by Josey on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:23:45 PM EST

While Dem leaders were demanding Hillary GET OUT and withdraw - Donna Brazile was claiming the Dem Party no longer needed Whites and Hispanics to win elections. Usually knee-jerk heated comments by national figures on national TV are quickly followed by an apology.
But so far - chirp, chirp.
Then the Obamacrat Party took delegates away from Hillary to complete their fixed nomination for THE ONE.
I, and many other Dems, have no problem voting against the Dem Party and their Nazi tactics this Nov in the presidential race.

[ Parent ]

Barack Obama has said (5.00 / 9) (#12)
by inclusiveheart on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:08:11 PM EST

many times that he is able to bring people together.

What he's never been clear about is what they will do when they get together.

They are fighting.

I don't think that is what most people had in mind.

Could we not have had this fight in the weeks before the convention?

I think we could have - but I also think that Obama's creds on "bringing people together" are starting to really at the very least take on a different meaning.

If he really is a Zen Master, I'm not seeing it right now.

unity was part of Obama's bamboozling act (5.00 / 1) (#17)
by Josey on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:11:02 PM EST

now, (5.00 / 4) (#19)
by ccpup on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:15:49 PM EST

if he ends up calling himself a "Uniter, not a Divider", we're in big trouble.

Just sayin'

[ Parent ]

Unity or Imp-unity? (5.00 / 2) (#24)
by Salo on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:22:59 PM EST

I think the party may have fell apart from its internal contradictions. Not because of the personalities of Obama and Clinton. That's my Marxist take on the PUMA thing. The female vote and the black vote sorta diverged someplace becaus ethe two factions were put at odds in a year that we couldn't shouldn't have lost.

[ Parent ]

Actually, a sad truthis that the civil rights (5.00 / 3) (#32)
by SarahSpin on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:53:31 PM EST

and women's movements have a long history of fighting each other for priority. This, of course, is not as it should be. A lot of early women's suffragists put the voting issue asside in favor of the abolitionist movement. While this was, of course, the right choice, I can't believe that 140 years later the two movements 1) haven't fully succeeded; and 2) aren't walking side by side.

[ Parent ]

African Americans are more conservative (none / 0) (#43)
by Fabian on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 07:48:13 PM EST

than most people realize. I think that AA's are about as conservative as the general population and that civil rights is the main thing that keeps them supporting progressives.

In other words, AAs are just as prone to sexism and misogyny, homophobia and xenophobia as anyone else is.

Progressives are what will move equality forward and them that has will always be reluctant to share their power with any of the less fortunate. Tribalism is tribalism, no matter what name it goes by - racism, sexism, classism and others.

[ Parent ]

: All people are as capable of (none / 0) (#46)
by inclusiveheart on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 08:24:56 PM EST

racism, sexism and xenophobia as any others.
If we all recognize that fact, we might actually beat discrimination.
As for the AA community - you are identifying only a more and more powerful segment of the community.

[ Parent ]

I'm worried about (5.00 / 5) (#22)
by chel2551 on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:17:28 PM EST

unity with the other side. I'm afraid that is his real focus.

We need to see an adversarial form of gov if we're ever going to move the other way.

[ Parent ]

An adversarial form of government (5.00 / 2) (#28)
by inclusiveheart on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:28:10 PM EST

is democracy.

Few people appreciate its unique beauty in the early 21st Century.

Seriously, there's nothing like a really great sausage once its made.

[ Parent ]

: Of course. (5.00 / 3) (#31)
by chel2551 on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:36:37 PM EST

I should have said we need to resurrect an adversarial form of government

[ Parent ]

He's bringin people together alright... (5.00 / 3) (#34)
by kredwyn on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:58:54 PM EST

What he neglected to mention is that they were being brought together...under the bus.

And RMC (Republican Majority for Choice) is seriously lobbying folks to support a pro-choice VP candidate for McCain.

[ Parent ]

And while VPs in the GOP may be (5.00 / 2) (#35)
by inclusiveheart on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 07:21:30 PM EST

able to start wars and out CIA agents, they will have NO say about abortion - it is all about John McCain who has always been as anti-choice as they come.

[ Parent ]

: And we're stuck down here... (5.00 / 2) (#36)
by kredwyn on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 07:26:58 PM EST

under this bus with flat champagne...whilst folks elsewhere continue to try and rewrite what my mother has labeled "The Railroading of Hillary Clinton."

[ Parent ]
: pea ess (5.00 / 1) (#38)
by kredwyn on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 07:31:43 PM EST

New York is awesome. It was 74 and sunny today in Cooperstown.
Tomorrow...I hang with the cat and try to write (or at the very least try to plot out the mystery novel--I have a setting, a murder location, and some kooky characters. Motive is still a bit iffy...I'm thinking blackmail.).

[ Parent ]

Bring (none / 0) (#42)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 07:42:40 PM EST

people together was a Bush statement in 2000. We all see how well that worked out didn't it?

It should be a clue to dems when we have a candidate using the Bush playbook for an election to run the other way as fast as we can.

[ Parent ]

i just find it so frustrating (5.00 / 3) (#15)
by scourtney on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:10:19 PM EST

that the obsession is with "Is Hillary doing enough?" What more can she do? It's depressing to watch her be a cheerleader while the Obama campaign hardly seems to be reciprocating. He is the nominee! He is the leader of the Democratic party! Isn't it his job to reach out to her voters and all voters? Unlike the media, regular people are looking to Obama to make his case.

: Making Obama President... (5.00 / 1) (#33)
by Jerrymcl89 on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:53:33 PM EST

... is the job of Obama and the people on his payroll. I think Hillary has already gone beyond her obligations, which really stop at just not sabotaging him.
As far as "conventional wisdom" goes, if everyone knew that not picking Hillary would hurt Obama in the polls, they certainly went pretty far out of their way not to say so.

[ Parent ]

Keep your comments on topic please (none / 0) (#8)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:00:03 PM EST

: The topic is the ability of Dems (5.00 / 3) (#18)
by Salo on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:15:42 PM EST

to act in self destructive ways and then dismiss it as fate. Obama's bad choices are to be expected after all, right? Nate is like a teen who cuts himself, huffs glue and then lays back listening to "and I think to myself, what a wonderful world..." all contented he did the right thing afterall.

[ Parent ]

Talk about making history (none / 0) (#16)
by Jane2009 on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 06:10:34 PM EST

BTD, does this make you the Cassandra of the Democratic party? I guess that would make Obama Helen. Heh.

Hillary is Positive and a Realist: Please Listen (none / 0) (#47)
by womanwarrior on Tue Aug 26, 2008 at 08:31:05 PM EST

Dear People with Whom I share many feelings about the shortcomings of Obama's team:

Please listen to Hillary tonight. Please look to the good of the whole country like she is doing.
Here's some suggested reading for those of you who are actually thinking of voting for McCain. http://www.truthout.org/article/what-a-mccain-victory-would-mean

I know we all remember: McCain and the Rethugs are no friend of Women, unless they are blond and rich. McCain is no friend of Women in Iraq and Afghanistan and Iran. McCain will not even touch getting health care. Hillary in the Senate can make more progress if we have a democratic Congress. We have the momentum to push past Obama on that. Please, for the sake of my three daughters, if nothing else, can we all be realists like Hillary?
Let's work toward the Positive.