It's the same theory behind the five stages of grief, 1. Denial and Isolation, 2. Anger 3. Bargaining. 4. Depression 5. Acceptance.

Hillary supporters are just coming out of the anger phase. They realize Obama is going to be the nominee and, as loyal Democrats, have been trying to get to a place where they can accept him. One of Obama's dilemmas has been that Hillary supporters aren't ready to accept a woman other than Hillary for the ticket. They view it as a slap in the face. The only way Obama can pick a woman other than Hillary is if the alternative is worse

So, Obama tosses out Kaine's name as a serious contender, knowing he's a deal breaker for women. Kaine is their worst case scenario. The prospect of Kaine makes them feel adrift. Is this even their party? To avoid Kaine, he’s betting they are willing to move to stage 3 and the bargaining table.

Obama is hoping given time, once women process and come to grips with the fact that the VP candidate is not going to be Hillary, they will accept it. Then the issue becomes who can he pick? Knowing Kaine will scare them to death, he bets that . anyone else, even another woman, would be a relief by comparison.

In the next few weeks, should Obama announces his running mate is Sebelius, he is counting on that sigh of relief from Hillary supporters: he didn't completely abandon them. He could have slammed them harder. He could have picked Kaine or Hagel. By picking Sebelius, he's throwing them a bone, and after contemplating the prospect of Kaine, they may just be hungry enough to take it. I think I am.

I like Kathleen Sebelius. She isn't Hillary or even close to being in Hillary's league in terms of experience, but that ship has sailed for 2008. Here's her record and position on issues. Sebelius is pro-choice despite her personal opposition as a Catholic to abortion. (More here.) She's also anti-death penalty. On immigration, while she talks tough on enforcement, she also supported legislation allowing children of undocumented immigrants to receive in-state tuition rates at colleges and criticized Bush for unilaterally deciding to send the National Guard to the border. She opposes a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. She supports Second Amendment rights. She vetoed the voter id law in her state. She's good on health care, including for seniors.

She's also good for the ticket since she’s obviously acceptable to Republicans having been twice elected Governor of the normally Republican state of Kansas. In other words, she might even take votes from McCain and put Obama over the top (although I believe he's a shoo-in at this point anyway.)

As for Obama's outreach to evangelicals and independents, many of whom are Republicans disgusted by Bush and believers that McCain is no different, they too get a bone with Sebelius. Her husband, Magistrate Judge Gary Sebelius, comes from a prominent Republican family. His father, Keith Sebelius, was a popular Kansas congressman. He's a staunch Republican. Maybe they will be satisfied that their voices will be heard, if only in private.

On a lighter note, One more thing about Judge Sebelius:

Judge Sebelius is reported to have a wonderful sense of humor and a great love of music. His record/CD collection is among the finest in Kansas. He downplays his role as advisor to his governor-wife, and prefers the title "First Dude" of Kansas.

I wonder if that's where their son got his sense of humor, which I don't find very funny but he's only 23 so I'll give him a pass -- John Sebelius created the board game "Don't Drop the Soap" about life in prison.

"Fight your way through 6 different exciting locations in hopes of being granted parole," the site says. "Escape prison riots in The Yard, slip glass into a mob boss' lasagna in the Cafeteria, steal painkillers from the nurse's desk in the Infirmary, avoid being cornered by the Aryans in the Shower Room, fight off Latin Kings in Gang War, and try not to smoke your entire stash in The Hole."

Another factor that makes me think Obama will pick Sebelius: When Obama first came on the national scene in 2004 giving his much heralded speech at the Democratic Convention in Boston, he was all about multi-culturalism and being the child of a poor, Kenyan father. Over the course of the campaign, he began to stress his ties to his mother's side of the family and his roots to Kansas. Obama wants to be viewed as a Middle American. But he also wants to maintain his image as the candidate promising change. What better way to do that than to pick a woman who has not been entrenched in the politics of Washington, who has taken a progressive stand on issues and who is from the heartland, happily married to a long-standing Republican? It's his "we're neither red states nor blue states just the United States" platform in action.

Sebelius also fits with Obama's strategy of focusing on unregistered voters and giving them a reason to vote. They expect a different kind of ticket than they've been offered in the past. I don't think either Obama and Kaine or Obama and Bayh, is exciting -- at least not enough to get potential voters off their duff and go to a voting booth. On the other hand, two non-Washington insiders, one an African American and the other a woman with progressive stands on issues who hasn't been dissected to death by the media, could be viewed as a breath of fresh air by unregistered, apathetic voters. They might actually be getting something different this time.

The downside: The Democratic ticket becomes a double-dose of inexperience at the national level. Neither Obama nor Sebelius have enough experience. But when reality sets in, the bottom line will be, contrary to what I repeatedly said and believed during the entire primary campaign, the devil you know actually is worse than the devil you don't. I'm now ready to buy that pig in a poke. A candidate like McCain with bad foreign policy and domestic views is worse than a candidate with good views who may need a little on the job training. Obama and Sebelius are a far better choice than McCain and another four years of Republican rule.

So I am reversing my prediction from June. I think Sebelius is the most likely choice right now. And I'm okay with it.