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Bad Political Analysis

There is no point to this post other than to point out how bad the so called political punditry can be. For years, Amy Sullivan, has been one of the worst imo. And that probably explains why she is a Time columnist now. And she continues to be bad. Look at this column. It may have a point to it but the obtuseness of the analysis just irks me. Sullivan writes:

One of the Democratic campaign's great misperceptions has been that Clinton held an overwhelming advantage among women voters. But that isn't the case. As expected, Clinton captured the over-65 vote, and Obama won over younger women. But women in the middle split almost evenly between the two. And while both Senators boasted historic candidacies, Obama's seemed to resonate more deeply, translating into 70%, 80% and even 90% of the black vote in primary contests. No one expected Clinton to sweep 90% of Democratic women voters, but 60% wouldn't have been an unreasonable accomplishment for the first woman to have a serious chance of winning the presidency. Instead, Clinton won just over a majority of women's votes. . . .[W]omen themselves cost her the nod. The reasons more women haven't voted for Clinton tell us something about the evolution of feminism and what the future may hold for female politicians.

What is wrong with this picture? Hint: some African Americans are women. Psst, Amy, if African American women were, say 25% of the female vote in the primaries and Obama won 90% of them, then it becomes hard to win 60% of the TOTAL women's vote. Sheesh. More . . .

Let me give you an example. In North Carolina, white women voted for Hillary by 65-33. African American women voted for Obama by 90-7. So how do you think the total women's vote turned out? OBAMA won the women's vote by 55-43.

So how would YOU explain Clinton's failure to capture a larger share of the women's vote. A sensible person would think - hmmm, African American women voted for Obama by 9-1. That seems to explain it. Not for Sullivan:

Clinton's run has exposed a divide between what could be termed optimist and pessimist feminists. It's a split between those who see Clinton's candidacy as groundbreaking--as the first of many serious runs by strong women--and those who count backward to Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 and conclude that this kind of opportunity comes along only once in a generation. For this latter group, Clinton's candidacy took on a pressing urgency: If not now, when? If not her, who?

Um, unless Sullivan means African American women are optimist feminists, Sullivan has not proven her case. And I actually think there may data that would make Sullivan's smaller point - that SOME demographics of white women were not as committed to Clinton - white women 18-29, upper income white women, higher educated white women. But we can not know how those number split.

Unfortunately, I do not have exit polls that provide data for white women under 30 that divides them by income, education or other factors. So this is speculation on my part. And I would NEVER have written what Sullivan wrote without finding out more.

My point is this is typical political punditry - ill informed, ill researched and ignoring the obvious. In this case, Sullivan ignores a central fact critical to whatever percentage of the women's vote Clinton and Obama got - the fact that African American women went overwhelmingly for Obama - in order to write the narrative she wanted to write - that there is a deep generational split among women. There may be. Personally I doubt it is that deep. But I DO know there was a deep split among white women and African American women - the deepest split you could find in ANY demographic.

The title of Sullivan's piece is "Why Didn't More Women Vote For Hillary?" The BEST answer to that question is because a large segment was African American.

But that is not the column Amy Sullivan wanted to write or that Time wanted to publish, so she played dumb, or is dumb, with the facts. That is something I can not stand about political pundits. They write their narratives and then make up the facts after. And Sullivan ALWAYS does that. Always. She is just awful.

Speaking for me only

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    Holy Batsh!t BTD (5.00 / 4) (#3)
    by bjorn on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:43:27 PM EST
    How can the publisher let this crap get out into the ether?  And the Times should post your piece in rebuttal, in all fairness!

    TIME (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:48:26 PM EST
    is still being published?
    what a waste of trees.

    Parent
    Well... (5.00 / 3) (#22)
    by Jackson Hunter on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:55:20 PM EST
    Well to be fair, it does keep Joe Klein in captivity so there is some good about it.  After all, we don't want him released to the wild.

    Jackson

    Parent

    true enough (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:58:43 PM EST
    he might breed

    Parent
    No anything but that!!! (5.00 / 0) (#108)
    by RalphB on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:15:45 PM EST
    avoiding that (5.00 / 0) (#13)
    by Edgar08 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:49:39 PM EST
    has forced people to play dumb, yes.

    Parent
    Edgar....that would be a great big huge, (none / 0) (#112)
    by PssttCmere08 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:34:20 PM EST
    fantastically large, ginormous YES....

    Parent
    I don't any of us are really that surprised (5.00 / 3) (#28)
    by IzikLA on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:59:09 PM EST
    I mean, at this point, I've completely lost count of the amount of articles I've read that are skewed in a similar manner.  And yes, basically all of them are about negating Clinton or her support.

    It's part of the narrative, don't you know.

    Parent

    exactly; the bias is extraordinary (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by kempis on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:23:41 PM EST
    My gut told me from the title not to bother reading this piece. Thanks for explaining how my gut got this one right, BTD.

    Now if there were just enough antacids in the world....

    Parent

    With all respect, BTD, lilly white Oregon (2.00 / 1) (#62)
    by Newt on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:24:57 PM EST
    voted Obama over Clinton, and Oregon's population is less than one percent AA.

    The title of Sullivan's piece is "Why Didn't More Women Vote For Hillary?" The BEST answer to that question is because a large segment was African American.

    Vote by Gender Clinton Obama              
    Male (45%) 33% 66%              
    Female (55%) 48% 52%

    Vote by Age and Race Clinton Obama  
    White 18-29 (11%) 28% 72%              
    White 30-44 (22%) 36% 64%              
    White 45-59 (29%) 45% 54%              
    White 60 and Older (22%) 50% 49%
    Black 18-29 (0%) N/A N/A              
    Black 30-44 (1%) N/A N/A              
    Black 45-59 (1%) N/A N/A              
    Black 60 and Older (0%) N/A N/A

    Parent

    Those statistics show a (5.00 / 0) (#90)
    by tree on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:46:51 PM EST
    huge gender gap of 14 to 15 points.

    Parent
    So the artticle was about Oregon? (5.00 / 2) (#118)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:48:30 PM EST
    Mpt the US? With all due respect, give me an EFFING break.

    Parent
    Do those numbers hold up (none / 0) (#77)
    by zfran on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:36:33 PM EST
    in any other lily white states? I believe Oregon, altho' probably correct statics is an anomaly.

    Parent
    That title rankles (5.00 / 2) (#5)
    by andgarden on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:44:43 PM EST
    I think this column is  another example of the editor not being smarter than the writer. When you get a situation like that, idiocy is likely.

    Here's a column no one will write: "Why didn't more white people vote for Obama?"

    they already know the answer (5.00 / 4) (#14)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:49:50 PM EST
    we are all howling racists.

    Parent
    And (5.00 / 5) (#16)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:50:59 PM EST
    Bill is a howling racist who deliberately lives in harlem.

    Parent
    it only because the (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:53:39 PM EST
    rent is cheap

    Parent
    Not any more (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by CST on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:55:36 PM EST
    Don't you know the Clinton's are also responsible for Gentrification :)

    actually, that may be a little true but I doubt it was intentional

    Parent

    Isn't (none / 0) (#164)
    by cal1942 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 09:07:55 PM EST
    just about all of Manhattan now gentrified?

    Don't actually know.  Just asking.

    Parent

    I howl for the dog whistles (5.00 / 0) (#31)
    by Ellie on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:59:45 PM EST
    I brake for animals too. If that make me a B!tch, so be it.

    Parent
    Better trolls please (none / 0) (#173)
    by otherlisa on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 01:29:28 AM EST
    Even, perhaps, in November? (none / 0) (#8)
    by pie on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:46:12 PM EST
    I hope they won't have to. (none / 0) (#11)
    by andgarden on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:48:07 PM EST
    Heh... (5.00 / 3) (#15)
    by Jackson Hunter on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:50:50 PM EST
    Shorter Amy Sullivan:

    "Hey, even the cows like her didn't vote for her, so quit yer b*itchin'!"

    Jackson

    quote of the day (none / 0) (#17)
    by bjorn on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:51:56 PM EST
    LOL

    Parent
    Remedial statistical analysis for Amy. (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by Salo on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:52:48 PM EST
    That's why very few Clinton supporter were saying that Clinton wins the working class vote, and instead pointing out that she was winning the white working class vote.

    Although she may well have beaten Obama overall in the low income catatgories that constitute the working class vote in the US, for all I know.

    I would assume not (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:55:15 PM EST
    Obama won 85-90% of the African American vote.

    Parent
    Shorter Amy Sullivan (5.00 / 4) (#24)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:56:36 PM EST
    I don't DO math.  I'm creative, for gawl's sake!

    LOL (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by Jackson Hunter on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:59:34 PM EST
    Math is "fuzzy" for a lot of Villagers, just like their hero.

    Jackson

    Parent

    I think it was Cream city who (none / 0) (#127)
    by hairspray on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:18:09 PM EST
    said that she had taught journalism students and their biggest problem courses were logic and statistics.  It figures.

    Parent
    I'm thoroughly sick of the assumption... (5.00 / 4) (#25)
    by dianem on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:57:30 PM EST
    ...that the women who voted for Clinton did so just because she was a woman. It implies that we are so blind in our feminism that we are incapable of thinking rationally, and it is decried by the evidence: that many feminist womrn did not support Clinton. I don't even assume that all black people who supported Obama did so becasuse he is black - some did, others supported him for other reasons. It is insulting to a group of people to suggest that they are totally incapable of making rational decisions. Some people in every group will act out of personal bias, but that doesn't mean that there is some arbitrary number who will do so.

    Thank you dianem (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by Gambit on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:04:22 PM EST
    There are plenty of reasons i see to negatively critique this election cycle, and sexism it seems is just one...

    Parent
    Remember Dan Quayle? (5.00 / 3) (#121)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:57:12 PM EST
    Conventional wisdom at the time was that women would vote for George Senior in droves because Quayle was so cute.

    After all, we all voted for Jack Kennedy because he was cute.

    I guess maybe we're making progress when they decide we vote out of solidarity and not glandular upset.

    Parent

    the only person (5.00 / 2) (#152)
    by melonhead on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:54:37 PM EST
    who voted for dan quayle because he was "cute" was john aravosis.

    Parent
    I know people disagree with this (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:57:31 PM EST
    but I think Hillary got special treatment.  I know sexism exists and it played a part but the fact that it was Hillary was at least an equal part.
    I firmly believe that Amy and that wacked out "guys girl" at americablog and Arianna and all the rest would have been spitting fire if the things done to Hillary had been done to any other woman.
    just MO.


    Fact that is was Hillary (5.00 / 5) (#50)
    by Valhalla on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:15:09 PM EST
    There's no way to prove it wasn't the fact that it was Hillary.  But two things to throw in the mix --

    -- A lot of people's longstanding hatred of Clinton has its root in sexism.  It's just that the hatred is of so longstanding that the origins are lost.  I remember how many people were incensed that she dare push her universal health care proposal, because First Ladies are not supposed to push political agendas.  It's ok if they do tv ads for noncontroversial good causes, that's all nice and feminine (literacy is popular, or the Red Cross).  Hillary stepped unforgiveabley outside the 'Lady' box and it drove people wild.

    -- how much of the criticism this year was gender-based.  And I don't mean just to obvious juvenile attacks, like the Kos people, but all the more subtle ones too.

    I disagree about the 'equally' part, although this isn't something that's measurable with precision.

    I wouldn't be so sure about the HuffPo not being as hard on any other woman.  Hillary is the only test case we have, really, because she's the only one to get so far.  The only example which comes close is Ferraro, and, um, look how that went.

    Parent

    still (5.00 / 1) (#66)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:27:52 PM EST
    show me a Ferrarro nutcracker

    Parent
    Er, I don't think the absence (5.00 / 1) (#81)
    by Valhalla on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:39:26 PM EST
    of a Ferraro nutcracker proves the point that equal numbers of people didn't vote for Hillary because of reasons exclusive of sexism.  

    Not to mention, it would not surprise me in the least if they're not out there and I just haven't seen them.  Sigh.


    Parent

    all I am saying (5.00 / 1) (#93)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:48:47 PM EST
    is it is groupthink.  it is how the country has told itself that it can say anything about or do anything to either Clinton and its OK.
    its funny even.
    I keep bringing up the nutcracker because it is so "telling".
    try to imagine CNNs Gennie Moos doing a "funny" piece about a Michelle Obama nutcracker.
    doesnt work does it?  she would be fired the next day.


    Parent
    They went after Ferraro (none / 0) (#122)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:03:22 PM EST
    through her husband.  She was hardly in the picture.  Her husband was more important, and he was a (wink, wink, nod, nod) Italian businessman in NY.

    Parent
    Glad someone has said it (5.00 / 1) (#70)
    by tree on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:30:09 PM EST
    It may take a decade or two but I think that historians will trace some of the origin of CDS  back to sexism. In 1992, Hillary was seen as too powerful and Bill was seen as too willing to take  political input and advice from her.

    Parent
    I honestly think it has as much (5.00 / 1) (#75)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:36:21 PM EST
    to do with class as sex.  the Clintons have always been seen by the beltway social set as hicks. unqualified and undeserving of being where they were.  it was aggravated by Bill stiff arming the press early in his term.  they never forgave him.
    I could point to a million examples.  the political cartoon showing her and Bill as hillbillys sitting on the porch and being embarrasing to Chelsea comes to mind.
    it makes me angry and sick to my stomach.  I try not to think about it too much anymore.


    Parent
    For being supposed hicks, they exude and (5.00 / 1) (#120)
    by PssttCmere08 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:52:22 PM EST
    show much more class than any of those beltway buffoons.

    Parent
    That is true (none / 0) (#91)
    by Valhalla on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:48:18 PM EST
    and I'm not disagreeing with you, at least not all that much.

    Plus some things are so bad that comparing the fractional 'worseness' of them isn't meaningful anyway (I saw this even though I disagreed with your equally statement).

    I'm female and from a working class background.  I definitely felt more overtly attacked though, as the former.  Although Donna Brazile's bleating about how she has nobly sat down with 'Joe Six Pack' did got right up my back, I'll tell you.

    Parent

    It was Sally Quinn and her social (none / 0) (#132)
    by hairspray on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:26:13 PM EST
    circle that were outraged that the "hicks from Arkansas" would take over 'Her' town."  Gene Lyons and Joe Conason chronicled the whole story in "The Hunting of the President."  They were as vicious as the GOP.  How the Clintons lived through it I will never know.

    Parent
    I don't agree that Hillary got (5.00 / 0) (#69)
    by zfran on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:29:46 PM EST
    special treatment. I think she may have had spotlighted coverage for her "historic venture" but they started in on her clothes and such instead of what she could bring to the office. I never once heard about any of the other candidates suits or ties (altho' color choice could have been better on some). I may have missed it,but HuffPo and Drudge didn't print pics of Obama very close up or from underneath, or as unflattering as possible? I thought that belonged to tabloid papers, not msm.

    Parent
    You might be right, but I am going (none / 0) (#32)
    by bjorn on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:00:16 PM EST
    to wait and see how the press covers Michelle Obama.  She is also a strong, opinionated woman.  Let's see who gets better coverage Cindy McCain or Michelle Obama or neither.

    Parent
    good point, bjorn (5.00 / 3) (#83)
    by kempis on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:40:10 PM EST
    One reason I think Obama will not be elected is Michelle Obama. I liked her, as I like most strong women, until she pulled her "if you can't run your own house" business and "gee, I dunno if I'll campaign for Hillary or not; depends...." But generally I like strong, funny, smart, earthy, opinionated women like Michelle. Stepford Women like Laura Bush and Cindy McCain scare me, and I worry about them. How must it be to put yourself in a psychological corset every day and fasten on that smile?

    Unfortunately, I'm in the minority. It seems that  America tends to prefer that First Ladies be Stepford Women. The three most reviled First Ladies were Eleanor Roosevelt, Roslyn Carter, and Hillary Clinton--all strong advocates and obvious partners of their husbands, not helpmates or excessively groomed accessories. Michelle fits that Eleanor-Rosalyn-Hillary mold.

    I'm curious to see if she'll be cut a break because she's black--and if so, that's fine by me. We do tend to expect African American women to be stronger and more outspoken--as we do working class women in general (think about the old Roseanne show). So maybe Michelle's forthrightness will be less-off-putting than Teresa Heinz Kerry's was.

    If not, she's going to be a drag on Barack's candidacy not only because of her more incautious remarks ("For the first time in my adult life I'm proud of my country....") but because her style is too "forceful."

    Teresa had the same problem. I adored her, especially when she told the rightwing rag's editor to "shove it," but a lot of people found her off-puttingly "aggressive." It is truly disturbing that we seem to expect First Ladies to walk a few steps always behind their husbands. Those who don't are verbally stoned.

    Parent

    Yes! Thank you! How could I forget Betty. :) (none / 0) (#130)
    by kempis on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:25:29 PM EST
    want to make any bets (none / 0) (#42)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:06:16 PM EST
    on the appearance of a Michelle nutcracker?


    Parent
    No doubt (5.00 / 1) (#104)
    by JavaCityPal on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:00:50 PM EST
    and, when one compares the negative things she has said against anything Hillary has said, no one deserves a nutcracker more than Michelle does.

    I will never understand Clinton hatred.


    Parent

    When a pundit says something to the (none / 0) (#48)
    by zfran on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:13:11 PM EST
    average voter or a columnist writes something in a magazine, it is interpreted to some as fact. I believe she did not particularly do research, just wants non-believers to believe and vote for Obama by saying well, look at all the women who voted for Obama, so it must not be a Clinton bloc of voters. "They" want everyone to "come home" I will not. I am independent, I am not a follower, I do not like rules (altho' I play by them when necessary) and I don't believe everything I read (except for postings by BTD, and I take them with a grain of salt!)

    Parent
    I'm not sure how to read this (none / 0) (#51)
    by suisser on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:16:40 PM EST
    Are you suggesting that Hilary has done specific things - written law or proposed policy or behaved in a private capacity in some manner that would make her deserve the mantel of "bit**" or witch or nut cracker?

    Parent
    absolutely not (5.00 / 1) (#64)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:26:12 PM EST
    I am saying that the entire country got used to using the Clintons as a toilet in the 90s and it has never stopped.
    for either of them.
    however I do agree with the comment above that a lot of the hate was originally rooted in sexism.
    but not all.

    Parent
    Was the hate rooted in sexism (none / 0) (#80)
    by suisser on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:37:52 PM EST
    or is sexism just an easy fall back weapon when you can't point to any legit criticism of the person?
    Which came first, the sexism or the hate? And why all the hate? I guess I really don't understand the basis for the hate directed at Hilary Clinton.  Perhaps that sounds naive, but I really have a hard time understanding what Hilary has done in her life's work to deserve this level of vitriol.

    Parent
    ditto (none / 0) (#87)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:43:39 PM EST
    it is a major mystery to me.

    Parent
    Same here. (none / 0) (#89)
    by pie on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:44:44 PM EST
    I kinda get it (none / 0) (#174)
    by otherlisa on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 01:36:52 AM EST
    If your only exposure to Hillary was through the MSM filter, you'll have a pretty negative impression of her. I never was a Bill Clinton fan (I worked for Brown in '92) and was quite prepared to dislike Hillary in this election. It wasn't until the New Hampshire primary, when I actually was exposed to her in the debate without the media filter, that I began to get a glimpse of who she really is.

    So my prior dislike of her was not based on sexism, but because of an unexamined negative impression compounded by policy decisions of the Clinton presidency with which I did not agree (though after a few years of Bush, believe me, I gained a huge amount of appreciation for the Clinton years!).

    I just didn't really think much about why I thought I disliked her (beyond the war vote); I let the MSM create an impression, and it wasn't until I had my own first-hand experience to counter that that my opinion changed.

    Parent

    I'll read it... (2.00 / 0) (#61)
    by Gambit on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:24:31 PM EST
    they may be saying that neither obama or clinton walks on water and that while sexism is an obvious an easily pointed out fact, some (certainly not me) have legit gripes with her.

    Parent
    If those gripes include her AUMF vote, (5.00 / 2) (#72)
    by pie on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:32:03 PM EST
    it's quite enlightening to remember that they certainly didn't hold that vote against any of the other male democratic presidential candidates.

    Bob Graham was the only dem to vote against the AUMF and it certainly didn't help him in 2004.

    More crapola, frankly.

    Parent

    Minimal contrast in 2004 (none / 0) (#100)
    by Knocienz on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:59:27 PM EST
    There were plenty of folks that gave Kerry and Edwards crap over their AUMF vote. A lot of Howard Dean's early support came because he was against the war from early on (he just peaked too early and the rest of the field ganged up on him to remove that contrast from competition)

    Edwards made a big deal about his AUMF mia culpa early on in prep for his 2008 run and there were still folks that held it against him

    Parent

    you read it wrong. (none / 0) (#67)
    by Capt Howdy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:28:46 PM EST
    if you are talking about my comment.
    there is nothing legitimate about what has been done to the Clintons.
    I include both.

    Parent
    its an odd thing (none / 0) (#55)
    by Edgar08 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:20:26 PM EST
    can an AA progressive activist blogger spew racial slurs about michael Steele just because they want him to lose an election? I hope not.

    Has that ever happened?  

    Parent

    Well, yes actually. (none / 0) (#86)
    by Klio on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:42:19 PM EST
    Steve Gilliard, god rest his soul, got all sorts of heat when he photoshopped Steele in blackface, iirc.  And he called him Simple Sambo too.

    Not sure what point I wanted to make, but you reminded me of the ferocious Gilly and his outrageous Newsblog.  Gosh I miss him.

    Parent

    RIP Steve Gilliard (5.00 / 0) (#94)
    by Jackson Hunter on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:50:29 PM EST
    It was the one year anniversary of his parting a few days back.  I liked his no nonsense style.

    Jackson

    Parent

    wow, that is an embarrassing article (5.00 / 4) (#30)
    by DandyTIger on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:59:39 PM EST
    You know, I blather on like an idiot without any facts, but I'm a commenter, that's my job. snark. So what's Amy's excuse? And what's the excuse of the rest of the buffoons? Where's my job at Time?

    Never Misunderestimate (5.00 / 3) (#33)
    by The Maven on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:00:20 PM EST
    the ability of a political columnist -- whether part of the traditional or "new" media -- to betray a fundamental lack of understanding as to how to parse basic statistical data.  Another annoying false statistical meme taken up frequently of late was the exit polling data regarding voters who said that the race of a candidate was an important factor in determining their vote, and the columnists who immediately spun that directly into Clinton's support among the white racist vote.

    These hapless columnists never bothered to note that (1) the numbers were always about the same for the question asked about gender, (2) "an important factor" does not equate to the sole deciding factor, or (3) for those states with significant percentages of African-American voters, a higher proportion of those AA voters answered in the affirmative, which kind of throws their whole storyline off.

    The inability to account for subgroups in the polling data is going to lead more than a few of these same columnists to make faulty assumptions throughout the entire election season, and probably well beyond.  Remember how in the aftermath of the 2004 election so many of them pounced on the prevalence of the so-called "values voters" as proof that the only way for Democrats to compete against the GOP was for the party to make a hard swing to the right on social issues?  I don't recall any of the columnists coming back to say that they hadn't bothered to look a bit more closely at the data to determine what it might actually have meant.

    Sadly, it looks as though we're in for another round of hideously bad analysis.

    Heh (5.00 / 3) (#45)
    by chrisvee on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:10:20 PM EST
    We've transcended numeracy.

    Punditry.... (5.00 / 5) (#46)
    by rise hillary rise on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:10:57 PM EST
    ...easier than thinking.

    And that's when Amy's brain skipped off to pick (5.00 / 6) (#84)
    by Ellie on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:40:25 PM EST
    ... some daffodils.

    Clinton's run has exposed a divide between what could be termed optimist and pessimist feminists. ... those who see Clinton's candidacy as groundbreaking--as the first of many serious runs by strong women--and those who count backward to Geraldine Ferraro

    The hell? This is a lot to be squeezing out of those numbers.

    However it does go along with another annoying habit of Punditstand: when not slamming Sen Clinton directly, why not slap on some completely irrelevant, invented, unflattering quality?

    Obama female voters: omtimistic! young!
    Clinton female voters: pessimistic! old!

    At least she didn't say bitter!

    You know, this is interesting (5.00 / 1) (#95)
    by zyx on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:56:11 PM EST
    slightly O/T

    BTD has supported Obama from wayback cuz of his Media Darling status.  Obama, according to the bio I just read, has pretty much always been a Darling--his mama told him he was very special, and he, well, he has always had a very high opinion of himself, and has had pretty good reinforcement of this throughout his life.

    The Clintons--Hillary--know what will, or could, happen if and when she were to step in the WH.  The Republican might be mean!  The press might be mean!  The American people, some of them, might be mean!  There might be--gasp--disunity!  Meanness!

    I suppose Obama knows, in a hypothetical sense, that disunity could happen, and people might say mean things about him and his wife and even his daughters, and about his fine ideas and proposals.  But I don't think he's really prepared for it, and I don't think he'll be at all happy when it happens.  I think the man has lived in a bubble, quite frankly.  I know he is rather cool--"Hawaiian cool"--when stressed, but he's, well, elitest.  He doesn't like being picked on.  I don't think he'll like being in public life where a LOT of people are critical of him...

    Oh well.

    Oh, and as to disunity (5.00 / 1) (#103)
    by zyx on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:00:43 PM EST
    there are those pesky dam* Democrats, too--it's like herding cats.

    Who killed Hillarycare?  Well, the Democrats had a lot to do with it.  The names start with Moynihan, as I recall!

    Parent

    I now support the guy (none / 0) (#106)
    by Gambit on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:07:22 PM EST
    but you do make a well rounded point. I think there is some intrigue there because unlike what's going on, if and when he gets in office, there WILL BE criticisms and triumphs that have nothing to with race. How he handles the pressure then might be interesting.

    Parent
    There are people who just (none / 0) (#119)
    by zyx on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:51:09 PM EST
    thrive no matter what, in politics.  The Clintons got up and put on a game face when the game was UGLY, day after day after day.  I thought it was nuts, actually, the Hillary would want to go back to the White House after what they endured.  And I saw Bill do a campaign stump for her--one of four or five that day--a month or two ago.  They LOVE politics.  They LOVE doing what they consider--well, I consider it, and I believe they consider it--serving their country, come what may.  Game face.  Very little whining or peevishness.  Yeah, once in a while, it slips, but it's darn rare.

    I don't care, personally, if Obama is HAPPY if he becomes president.  I mean, I don't think he'll be so weak that he'll become a miserable sot like his father did.  But if he gets a whuppin' something like Clinton did when Newt and Delay took over the Congress, or there was some external fiasco, how would he react?  

    Parent

    it will be someone else's fault. (5.00 / 1) (#129)
    by kimsaw on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:24:49 PM EST
    He'll tell everyone to calm down. Then he'll say his prayers that someone will have a gameplan, or he'll call Hillary at 3am.

    Parent
    On Olberman (5.00 / 1) (#105)
    by Salo on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:04:15 PM EST
    he did what O'Reilly and Hannity were hired to do.  Kill off Hillary as a political force.

    Olbermann (none / 0) (#111)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:24:21 PM EST
    doesn't get enough ratings to do that.  He gets about a million viewers a night.

    National media is what did it, the culmination of it all.  Don't give Keith all of that credit.

    Parent

    Wow (none / 0) (#135)
    by JavaCityPal on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:29:52 PM EST
    He used to struggle to get 600,000 when he was at his peak of competition with O'Reilly.

    I was hoping his numbers were down to 106

    Parent

    His number (none / 0) (#138)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:35:09 PM EST
    in the Demo has been about 400,000.

    He peaks when he trashes Hillary.

    Parent

    What you seem to be saying (5.00 / 2) (#139)
    by FemB4dem on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:35:22 PM EST
    is that AA women were hoodwinked by the Obama crowd that tried (and still tries) to sell the Clintons as racists.  I don't buy that.  When I made calls for Hillary in Texas and Ohio, well after SC, I talked to many AA women who told me they love Hillary, but felt they just "had to" vote for Obama.  Ditto for PA, IN and NC.  Not word one about racism, just pride in their community and pride that one of theirs was doing well.  I honor them for that pride and understand it. Those are the Obama voters who showed up in the exit polls in large numbers in all states as being quite willing to vote for Hillary.

    What I don't understand is what has seemed to me and other Hillary supporters to be the visceral need of angry black and white men (Obama supporters and the media) to utterly savage the Clintons, and call them and us racists.  I asked an Obama supporter how I could be a racist when I had voted for Jesse Jackson, twice, and was promptly informed that even mentioning Jesse's name in the same breath as Obama meant I was, indeed, a racist.  Ok then.  I honor Jesse and his historic runs for president.  The question that has never been answered for me is why the Obama supporters do not.  

    I do not want to be in a party run by these angry forces who appear no different from the angry men who foisted Bush upon us.  Indeed, I think many of them are one-in-the-same.  I know several Bush voters who are now rabid Obama supoorters and call themselves Democrats.  Indeed, in the blogosphere, some of the worst offenders are so-called recovering republicans.  Obviously, they have not recovered enough.  I am done with the democrats, and will not support Obama. Without the support of long-time Democrats and Clinton voters like me, I honestly believe Obama cannot win. I guess that makes me an optimistic feminist since I hope, and have every reason to believe, I will be voting for Hillary as president in 2012.
     

    My above comment was meant to be in response (none / 0) (#141)
    by FemB4dem on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:37:16 PM EST
    to Icebergslim's comment.  Sorry for any confusion.

    Parent
    Hillary Clinton's supporters are not racists, (none / 0) (#145)
    by icebergslim on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:45:00 PM EST
    but many come out in heated battles.  If you are a democrat you will vote Obama, if not, you will move along.

    HRC will have a lot to make up, she and her husband.  Especially, it the AA community.  And I will state this, I was surprised that the AA vote cut so divisively by 2/5, but that represented what many AAs felt as dog whistle tactics of the Clintons.

    Hillary could have gotten at least 30% of the AA women vote, this group was HIGHLY skeptical of Obama, felt he was too new, etc.  But again, her campaign destroyed that with the type of campaign she ran.

    I believe Obama will win in November, after the dow dropped over 400 points and gas will be 5 bucks by November.  The country will be so tired of Bush, McCain will not have a chance.  But I am an Obama supporter and we always run like we are 20 pts down and work out asses off.  That is how he won.

    Parent

    I think you will find that not every agrees (5.00 / 1) (#149)
    by andgarden on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:50:34 PM EST
    with you about this:

    I was surprised that the AA vote cut so divisively by 2/5, but that represented what many AAs felt as dog whistle tactics of the Clintons.

    I think you will also find that it is to no one's benefit to continue arguing about this.

    BTW, I have not forgotten the toxic things you wrote at the time.

    Parent

    Moving on (5.00 / 2) (#151)
    by FemB4dem on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:54:20 PM EST
    "If you are a democrat you will vote Obama, if not, you will move along."

    Move along and serve you coffee perhaps?  I was a woman long before I was a democrat.  You're right, you and your ilk have infested my party to the point I have moved along.  Good luck in November, you'll need it, even if the Dow drops 4,000.  Some principles transcend money.  I suspect that is a lesson you will learn this fall.

    Parent

    Not answering the question (2.00 / 0) (#35)
    by Oceandweller on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:01:37 PM EST
    No one seems to be aware that -admittedly less than for Clinton - quite a few white women voted for Barack. Any input ?

    Was that the question? (5.00 / 4) (#43)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:06:20 PM EST
    Why didn't Clinton get 90% of the white women's vote?

    I dunno. I find it interesting that you are not extolling the reason why 90% of African American women voted for Obama. Can you think of the reason not related to Hillary?

    Let me ask it this way, what percentage of the African American women's vote would Clinton have gotten if Obama were not in the race?

    Parent

    The REAL Question (none / 0) (#52)
    by Gambit on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:17:53 PM EST
    is why are people questioning the inherent morality (present company excluded BTD) of all these realities? (ex. women and hispanics for hillary, blacks and youth for barack)

    Parent
    I can only say this (none / 0) (#60)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:23:45 PM EST
    I will not ignore reality. I never have and I never will.

    Parent
    We already know the answer to that question (none / 0) (#56)
    by andgarden on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:21:18 PM EST
    Just look at the 2000 primaries.

    Parent
    And just as I think (5.00 / 2) (#63)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:25:40 PM EST
    those white women who let identity be the deciding factor between two candidates who hold similar views, more power to them.

    If there was a GOOD Latino candidate in the race, in all honesty, I am pretty sure I would have tilted towards him or her.


    Parent

    And I wouldn't begrudge it (5.00 / 2) (#68)
    by andgarden on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:29:05 PM EST
    We like to see people who share our experiences do well. That's why the most powerful tool a politician has is to be able to say "I am like you." It's why Hillary's "Scranton" ad was so good.

    Parent
    White and AA woman vote (none / 0) (#102)
    by Oceandweller on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:00:29 PM EST
    For the AA vote, I would think- INHO, they related more to him as slavery is a very very strong issue for AA. in fact as a white woman, my admittedly very own perception was that my AA counterparts considered that being AA and a woman made it worse than being white and a woman. Sort of the importance of being the first serious woman contender paled in comparison of being the first AA seious contender. For them it was a no brainer issue.
    iT WAS NOT AGAINST HILLARY at all, it was an issue which was way above her, like pionneer league to major league. No offense meant.
    We may not realize it but it was not that long ago 1968 just 40ys ago and it meant more than being a woman.
    In fact Obama could have been a woman, their choice was gender-free ; he was one of them and Hillary for all her good works was not.
    Now let it be clear that I am not going to be disapparaging Bill Clinton, but repeatedly calling him the first black president in this camlpaign did dissservice his wife.It was derogatory and insulting; sorry yes that is always I perceived it and my friends while giving him the title honoris causa were ready for a real AA president . Not a would be one.
    If Obama had been out of the race, they would have voted Clinton, they would have related ; but alas for Clinton; he was there.
    It was not a vote againts; it was a vote for.

    Parent
    Thank you (5.00 / 1) (#131)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:25:32 PM EST
    We know that.

    And just for the record, it was not the Clintons who kept talking about the "first black president" thing, it was the pundits and pols.


    Parent

    They... (none / 0) (#54)
    by Jackson Hunter on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:19:45 PM EST
    They didn't vote as a monolithic bloc.  I'm sure there were white women, especially younger ones, who voted on the Iraq War (and thus against Clinton.)

    In other words, they voted issues for the most part.  The vast majority of Dems are not racist or deranged feminazis.  Once he achieved viability, Sen. Obama was going to sweep the AA vote.  (Not a criticism, just a reality.  If I were AA, it would be a no brainer since their policies are relatively close for the most part.)

    I just felt that HRC had the edge in experience and savvy, it has been the blogs that have totally skewed things out of control and caused all of the divisiveness.  I was an either or guy just a few months ago, and that changed with all of the rancor.  I honestly do think this Party will unite better than most think, but Obama has to take the lead on that, as the titular head of the Party, it is his responsibility alone, and to his credit he seems to be heading in that direction.

    Jackson

    Parent

    You're the kind (none / 0) (#73)
    by Gambit on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:33:43 PM EST
    of person someone with half a brain could have a civil discourse with. I do blame the media, the idiotic DNC and internet elements for inflaming some of the country's worst cancers.

    Parent
    You speak for me too (none / 0) (#1)
    by masslib on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:41:20 PM EST
    on this one.

    Wait a second (none / 0) (#2)
    by Gambit on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:43:08 PM EST
    I think sullivan is making a point that avoids race because she doesn't want to be accused of what so many clinton supporters have been (wrongly) of race-baiting.

    Then she should be making a different point!!!! (5.00 / 0) (#10)
    by pie on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:47:15 PM EST
    Wait! (none / 0) (#6)
    by pie on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:45:30 PM EST
    /looks at desk.  Proceeds to beat head on it.

    Good ol' Amy.  Another member of the clueless brigade.  Aren't these people embarrassed to write this stuff?

    By the end of it (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by Salo on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 04:53:59 PM EST
    Obama will have won the female vote according to all the history books.

    Parent
    History Lesson Please (none / 0) (#34)
    by Gambit on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:01:25 PM EST
    As I stated before, i'm fairly new to this whole democracy thing, but i gotta ask: has a political party ever been this divided? maybe my view is myopic because this is the first site i picked to get involved in. Since when did white women and blacks become enemies? I thought it was all about "The Man" or whatever. I just wanted a few historical references.

    I don't know the answer but (5.00 / 5) (#40)
    by bjorn on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:04:50 PM EST
    on a related note. Paul Begala pointed out that Gore won every primary against Bradley.  Bradley dropped out in March and did not endorse Gore until early June or July (can't remember). But Hillary is the devil for waiting four days!  He also pointed out a similar scenario with Tsongas and Clinton.

    Parent
    Good for Begala (5.00 / 4) (#44)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:06:52 PM EST
    You know the only reason the media (5.00 / 3) (#107)
    by JavaCityPal on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:08:34 PM EST
    is still beating her up for that today is because she embarrassed them.

    They spent all day announcing what she would do and proved to the country that those mouths just make it up as they go along. They looked like the fools they are.

    I'm hoping her speech tomorrow is, again, what she wants to say, and not what they want to hear.

    Parent

    1976 (none / 0) (#53)
    by Ga6thDem on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:18:27 PM EST
    and the GOP. Very divided. The party was pretty split and lots of them sat home giving Carter a win for the Presidency.

    Parent
    Lots of them sat home? (5.00 / 1) (#154)
    by Valhalla on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 08:05:00 PM EST
    Impossible!  Fox News has been telling me for days that everyone always 'gets over' having the nomination go to the other guy.

    Parent
    1968 for one (none / 0) (#125)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:08:30 PM EST
    That was probably the absolute worst in recent history.  This is nowhere near as bad, but it's the worst in the Dem. Party since then, I think.

    Parent
    BTD when are you (none / 0) (#36)
    by LoisInCo on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:02:17 PM EST
    going to start posting on Keith Olbermann? I would love love love that.

    Ummmm, start? (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:04:04 PM EST
    Oh sorry thought you were going to do a series (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by LoisInCo on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:05:07 PM EST
    But that was a while ago and I have slept since then :-)

    Parent
    I think non-sense like this is hurtful to Clinton (none / 0) (#37)
    by ajain on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:02:42 PM EST
    I think we should email TIME and Amy Sullivan.
    This kind of hurtful political punditry is detrimental not only to Clinton but to Democratic Party, because this has the capability to start a round of Clinton trashing that will keep the wounds open.

    It's a challenge (5.00 / 0) (#88)
    by waldenpond on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:44:16 PM EST
    just getting certain people to quit trashing her here and the primary season is over and Obama has the nom.  I think CDS has become a state of being for some.  They just can't move on to their GE.

    Parent
    You think that's not the intent? (none / 0) (#133)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:26:59 PM EST
    Olbermann (none / 0) (#47)
    by Gambit on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:11:41 PM EST
    Olbermann is a left wing d*** like Hannity is on the right. I can't stand him and his constant whining. (unfortunately i hear his ratings are way up so it looks like i'll be suffering him a while longer.)

    His ratings are way up (5.00 / 1) (#82)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:39:36 PM EST
    because he made Clinton bashing a cottage industry.  He's beaten O'Reilly several times lately.

    His ratings will tank, I believe, once Clinton is out of the race, and people stop tuning in to see if his head will explode.

    Parent

    Still lagging behind his counterpart (none / 0) (#57)
    by pie on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:21:53 PM EST
    on Fox.

    Parent
    Forever now... (5.00 / 0) (#74)
    by Jackson Hunter on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:35:23 PM EST
    since he decided to basically alienate half the part with his Obama propaganda, I don't get MSNBC but that doesn't matter now, I wouldn't watch him now on a bet.  MHO

    Jackson

    Parent

    Oops... (none / 0) (#76)
    by Jackson Hunter on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:36:26 PM EST
    Party, not part.

    Parent
    No control variables and single variable segments (none / 0) (#49)
    by datadriven on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:14:48 PM EST
    When a major newsweekly or paper forks over the money for the poll, then it presumably writes the actual survey instrument and it owns the final dataset. In such a situation, why can't they write some decent attitudinal batteries on race and gender along with key drivers of the voting decision? Why, they could even hire an agency (or even an impoverished stats grad student) to generate decent multivariate analysis!

    One would have expected some variant of social science Darwinism to have naturally selected better analysis out years ago. But wait, maybe there's a political market for crapola analysis! Geezz, could it be used to generate smears?

    I have a little knowledge of that (none / 0) (#99)
    by befuddled on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:59:14 PM EST
    Constructing a good set of questions is a lot harder than it looks. Most of the questions I've seen are either tried-and-true, or, if they seem new, have some real problems. Like "Was race a factor in your vote?" Too many ways that could be interpreted. They aren't trying very hard.

    Parent
    Somerby suggests that (none / 0) (#136)
    by gyrfalcon on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:30:35 PM EST
    since they didn't start polling that question until after "Reverend" Wright surfaced, it may well be that a lot of people were thinking of that ugliness-- ie, possible fear of Obama camp racism against whites-- when they answered.  Be nice of somebody would do some follow-up on that with a little more detail, but it's almost impossible to get people to even answer survey questions honestly about race.

    Parent
    The ANES has batteries going back sixty years (none / 0) (#163)
    by datadriven on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 09:04:33 PM EST
    The questions aren't great, but one would hope that if they bothered to construct a scale, used some of the old q's for anchors, and tossed the resulting data in to a factor analytic or PLS/SEM model to locate the unobservables then we would have a better understanding of the decison-making process than a single hopelessly ambiguous race question.

    The instruments and data can be downloaded from the electionstudies site:

    http://www.electionstudies.org/

    Some of the q's are grandfathered in since they're part of time series models (where folks string together the data points over many decades). Others like the q's on political alienation, have been heavily pounded over the years. There's a continuity guide available.

    Since the virtue of tolerance has been a long running theme in the American political system and because many of the early survey researchers, such as the emigre Adorno, felt the US system could lapse in fascim (viz. the California F-scale), there's a vast amount of research on this topic. It's been almost completely ignored by our distinguished news commentators.  

    Parent

    I don't think question interpretation is (none / 0) (#167)
    by gandy007 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 09:30:44 PM EST
    necessarily the problem.  I  think self perception is more the issue.

    No statistics, but my gut hunch is that except for the hardcore racist, few people see themselves as being racist and much less would admit to it.

    I defy you to construct a question or set of questions that get to the heart of the matter and get a true picture.  You are fighting people's self delusion.

    I think that like sexism, racism is so deeply ingrained, that it comes out from the deep recesses of a person's psyche.  

    Parent

    Check out some of Mary Jackman's articles (none / 0) (#169)
    by datadriven on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 09:54:37 PM EST
    The issue of eliciting a response set or an education level covarying response set was raised by Mary Jackman back in the 'seventies. Many different methodologies have been used over the years to deal with lying respondents (Frank Westie hooking people up to galvanic skin sensiometers in the 'fifties) to checking out behavioral (what I do) vs. attitudinal (what I say) differences.

    The issue isn't racism, but how important race is-- if it's important at all. Unless we control for many other variables (such as issues) we can't even begin to assess a single variable's impact. That's why exit polls that report only marginal are inherently misleading.

    Parent

    Wouldn't one way to control for the (none / 0) (#58)
    by Valhalla on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:21:57 PM EST
    subgroups be to look at contests in which there's a relatively low AA population, and for which there are breakdowns by age, income, etc.

    I dont' remember any of the numbers right now (although South Dakota springs to mind) but I know there were at some states where Hillary got a high percent of the white female vote.

    Entirely anecdotal, but my aunt, who's voted Republican at least the whole 42 years of my life, voted for Clinton.  I almost fell off my chair when I heard.  

    Here's the easier way (none / 0) (#65)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:26:55 PM EST
    White women - I assume they went for Clinton by at least 60% - the Sullivan magic number.

    Parent
    Wisconsin (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:31:29 PM EST
    where Obama WON the white vote overall, he lost white women 52-47.

    Virginia, the other state  (other than Illinois and the caucus states I imagine) where Obama won the white vote, white women, 53-47 Clinton.

    That is AS GOOD as it got for Obama. Everywhere else it was 2-1 for Clinton.

    Parent

    BTD (none / 0) (#78)
    by Gambit on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:36:40 PM EST
    that's a problem, no doubt about it.

    Parent
    Obama won white women in (none / 0) (#79)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:36:55 PM EST
    Illinois and, significantly, Iowa.

    Parent
    Clinton's support among white women (none / 0) (#85)
    by Foxx on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:41:41 PM EST
    should have been higher, I've been saying this for a long time. That's the only place I agree with Sullivan, it's an important question. In fact Hillary's support among all women should have been higher. She is much more feminist than Obama. And at least as anti-racist. Why didn't women feel the same solidarity with her that blacks did with Obama?

    Sullivan's optimist/pessimist distinction is insulting and self-serving. I am trying real hard not to do the same thing, in general I try to avoid explaining others' motives.

    My question is why would women who think of themselves as progressive and feminist look at two candidates, one a super qualified, experienced, massively informed proven feminist of long standing with the more progressive policies and an unbelievable track record, the other an unqualified, inexperienced, unvetted man with less progressive policies, no track record, questionable and corrupt associations, exhibiting sexist behavior and contradicting himself constantly, and then choose to support the man? Why in fact would many of these women engage in bashing the woman, often in sexist hate mongering ways?

    I don't call that optimism. Sorry, here I go, I call it fear and internalized sexism. As I've said before, women are the most colonized people on earth.

    The split between white feminist and women of color is huge. Here I definitely will not interpret the motives of women of color. I will say that much of what I read from them about white feminists is untrue.  

    I think you're mixing some things in here (none / 0) (#96)
    by Valhalla on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:58:07 PM EST
    We know some of the numbers for women, but not for the voting breakdown for "women who think of themselves as progressive and feminist".  Certainly not all women who voted Democratic in the primaries think of themselves that way.

    Among my friends, almost all of whom would fit that category but of course are not a valid sample, Clinton support was 80-20 at least.  I have no idea what the real numbers would look like, of course.

    Parent

    Finally (none / 0) (#97)
    by Gambit on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:58:14 PM EST
    someone asked the real tough question. I respect your line of thinking although i disagree with SOME of your obama critique. I think you HAVE to look at the factor of her husband, not nessasarily opposition to her. For all his good qualities, the man is a PIG who did not have enough respect for her even during his two terms. A lot of women are understandably offended by him. It sucks but it's not her fault, it's his.

    Parent
    War vote (none / 0) (#126)
    by smg77 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:15:45 PM EST
    In a lot of cases they couldn't support her because she voted for the war in Iraq. For both myself and my circle of friends that was the reason we supported Obama.

    Parent
    Did you ever (5.00 / 1) (#140)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:37:07 PM EST
    question why Obama had Tom Daschle on his team.  You realize that Tom Daschle was Senate Majority Leader and was instrumental in bringing the war vote to the floor of the senate.

    Did that bother you at all?  

    And did you vote for Kerry in 2004?  A guy who also voted for the Iraq resolution?

    Parent

    Didn't bother you (5.00 / 1) (#150)
    by Foxx on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:51:23 PM EST
    that once he got to the Senate he provided NO LEADERSHIP on ending the war and continued to vote for its funding? Ever think at looking at the whole picture? Did you really believe that he would have voted against the war if he had been in the Senate at the time? The guy has never taken a hard stand on ANYTHING!

    Parent
    never undestood the war vote issue (none / 0) (#160)
    by TimNCGuy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 08:27:59 PM EST
    Obama supporters were constantly telling people to go read his website to see his positions.  Or, please go view ALL of Rev Wright'sn sermons to see the real Wright.

    But, instead of actually reading Hillary's original speech about her war voteto see what she said at the time at that it wasn't a vote to GO TO WAR, they instead bought the media line that everyone knew Bush intended to go to war.

    Clinton's explanation for her vote matched her original speech exactly.  But, no one would believe her during the campaign.  

    Parent

    Hey BTD (none / 0) (#92)
    by Gambit on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:48:22 PM EST
    or anyone else, let me ask a tough question. whatever "side" you may on, it's a well established fact that the MSM did they're fair share of race-baiting. (rev. wright for 2-3 months straight, and definitely "fairytale" gate)If hillary got the nomination, how would she win without barack's "big 3" (blacks, hippie-youngsters, and independents). What would be her gameplan?  

    She'd put him on the ticket (5.00 / 1) (#98)
    by andgarden on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:58:43 PM EST
    for starters

    Parent
    First off (5.00 / 2) (#101)
    by tree on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 05:59:50 PM EST
    she and her campaign WOULDN'T write them off and claim that they oould win without them. She would have worked hard to regain the black vote. She had several black surrogates that would have gone to work on that as well as making personal appeals as well. She would have offered Obama the VP slot, since she already did that earlier in the campaign. I'm sure she would have done the same kind of things to regain the youth and independent vote, although I'm sure that she would have made a special efforts to heal the rift with black voters.

    BTW, I disagree with your assessment of race baiting by the media, unless you are talking about the Rush Limbaugh types.  

    Parent

    Tree, come on (none / 0) (#109)
    by Gambit on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:17:34 PM EST
    don't you remember the hoopla when the media jumped on B. Clinton for the "fairytale" quote (which he didn't actually say the way they said he said it! lol)

    Parent
    Not only the media (5.00 / 2) (#128)
    by ineedalife on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:19:42 PM EST
    They were driven by the Obama campaign's faux outrage. Michelle saying she wanted to scratch Bill's eyes out. She knew the truth but decided to go with the distortion and throw gasoline on the fire. The media love a fight and went with it.

    Same story with several things in the campaign. Ferraro's comments would have gone un-noticed if Obama's camp had not cranked up the scream machine.

    And on and on.

    Parent

    Equiv of HRC Pimping her Daughter on TV for wks? (5.00 / 1) (#172)
    by Ellie on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 11:19:54 PM EST
    Where was that kind of smear of Obama on cable or the nets, hmm?

    Fairy tale? Slur? Oh please, you couldn't make that kind of stretch with a bungee cord.

    How would you be reacting if someone said Obama was pimping his family and the story played for weeks?

    Parent

    Thank you thank you thank you (none / 0) (#110)
    by Katherine Graham Cracker on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:22:00 PM EST
    Amy should be shunned.  I get the whole "everyone has a right to express their opinions."  But frankly  am tired of giving equal time to people make no sense and imo she is right at the top of the category.  

    I feel the same way about people who oppose mass transit.  They never have a rational argument, it's alway some bogus off the wall nonsense but it gets covered like it has value.

    Obviously Sullivan's (none / 0) (#113)
    by lilburro on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:35:14 PM EST
    optimist/pessimist construction has no basis in reality.  Labelling people based on attitudes like that, based on that data, is absurd.  I would however be interested to see how women voted by class.  Obama generally won people making over 100,000-200,000+ a year.  Did professional women identify with Clinton, a fellow professional?  Or did Clinton resonate especially with women of a lower income bracket for some reason?  It is of course important to keep in mind the differing themes of the candidates; Hillary was healthcare and jobs, and focused on rural communities.  Obama was more into reforming systems, and did well in suburbs.  Perhaps a desire to change bureaucracy resonated more with professional women who swung Obama.

    Who knows.  Throughout history, society has never liked it when women got together.

    The innumeracy of the punditry is staggering. (none / 0) (#114)
    by OrangeFur on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:39:13 PM EST
    In some states with large AA populations, you heard things like Obama won every age group and every income group, among men and women, etc. etc.

    All of which translated to the same thing. He won the AA vote overwhelmingly, and this meant he won every subgroup.

    Good catch, BTD.

    I campainged heavily in AA areas (none / 0) (#115)
    by icebergslim on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:41:47 PM EST
    for Barack.

    My elders, many women, constantly said, "they love the Clintons.  He should wait his turn.  He would be a good VP and will get experience."

    I don't know how many times I heard that meme from many AA women.

    What happened was the Clintons dog whistle tactics.  Now to whites it may not seam like that, but everyone hear things different.  The AA community heard it different.

    I can not believe that the Clintons who were so beloved in this community and it was the AA vote that PUT CLINTON in the WH, they got out there heavily and voted for him.  Now, how they could go down the race baiting road, that many AAs feel that they did, is beyond me.

    They LOST this vote on their own, and yes, Armando is right, Clinton only needed 30% of the AA woman vote to defeat Obama, but she and her campaign threw it away.  By SC, the AA community was DONE with the Clintons.

    Expect much apologies and attempt for reconcilation in this community from both Clintons.  They needed this group, much more than they thought so.  And it was this group, AA Women, that sent Hillary back to the senate.

    They did not lose the AA vote on their own (5.00 / 2) (#144)
    by kimsaw on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:40:57 PM EST
    Because according to Michelle, AA would "get it". The Clintons did not race bait, but the propaganda from Obama's camp offered that they did and they wanted it interpreted that way. They got their wish.

    Obama wouldn't even go to the State of the Black Union event. Clinton did.  Tavis Smiley got death threats because he criticized Obama's absence. Why did Obama diss his own constituency? Did he take them for granted? At least she respects the AA community enough to meet with them on their terms.

    The AA community in the end identified with Obama because of the color of his skin and their shared history. I totally get that and respect it. I don't agree with their choice for substantive reasons. Each voter must be respected.  

    Obama wanted the race divide to happen and he nurtured it along. He knew that eventually they would "get it" and they did, the problem for Obama is I did too.

    Parent

    Go to the AA community and state what you just (none / 0) (#147)
    by icebergslim on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:49:39 PM EST
    wrote, you will get an earful.

    Again, you hear things one way and the AA community heard it another.  Let us not forget Hillary's surrogates who continued to muddy up the waters.  They will go down in history as the type of surrogates that YOU DO NOT HAVE to advocate on your behalf.

    And this thing with AA identified with Obama because of the color of his skin is a false.  Up to Iowa Clinton LEAD this group.  Obama had to win Iowa, for AAs to even BELIEVE he could win.  You need to go back through the polling, no one will dispute this.  For many they could care less about him being black, they wanted to know if he could WIN.  Again, go through the polling, this segment was NEVER in his pocket.  And then Clinton's Campaign did not help much either.

    Parent

    Forgive me, but (5.00 / 1) (#156)
    by suki on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 08:08:19 PM EST
    I don't believe anything you write.
    ZERO credibilty.

    Parent
    I agree with suki (none / 0) (#180)
    by JDEUNO on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 07:26:25 AM EST
    Yes, absolutely ZERO CREDIBILITY.  What a joke.

    Parent
    or are you just reading things you want to read. (5.00 / 1) (#177)
    by kimsaw on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 07:04:40 AM EST
    I'm not afraid of an earful and I'm not afraid to offer my stance. Obama supporters should be opening up to the new politics of change and listen to all sides of the issues, as their candidate is on every side of the issues.

    Tell me why 85 to 90% of blacks identified with Obama then, was it his policies, was it his track record of lifting up the southside of Chicago with the Rezko slums in shambles? You neglected to offer why he didn't show up to the State of the Black Union event. Did the AA community already know where he stood on all the issues of their concern or did he believe they were in his pocket and he could ignore them like those tenants on the Southside?

     Are you suggesting African Americans didn't believe he could win because he was just the new guy on the block and his race didn't play a part in their concerns? Were African Americans polled in regards to the question of whether they believed an AA could become President? If they didn't, why were they skeptical? Was it based on racism or policy differences? You offer that they needed to believe he could win- why? They need to believe he could win in spite of what? After all Michelle Obama offered they'd eventually "get it". Are you offering that "get it" has nothing to do with race. So when they BELIEVED he could WIN in spite of WHAT?; they  got it and supported him. So are you suggesting that 90% of the AA support of Obama is simply because they believe he can win based on his policies? That's like suggesting some women don't appreciate the fact that Clinton was a woman. In both cases gender and race played into opinion, it's called identity politics and given the overwhelming AA support I think race played a greater role than gender. What would have happen if Obama only garnished 50%-75% of the AA vote? He wouldn't be the presumptive nominee.

    I even give you that Clinton had the lead in the very beginning. Both Clintons had a successful relationship with the AA community. Obama had to break into that. How do you break into something you need? You create a division. You exploit when given the opportunity. You offered that it was race baiting by the Clintons that damaged their relationship, and what I did was reject the notion that they race baited and put the race baiting squarely in Obama's lap. The Clintons are not stupid politicians, they would not intentional race bait a constituency they knew they would need and their respect for the community is historically unquestioned. Obama's campaign exploited "words" with a specific intent to create a divide, which I find as ironic for the "Chosen One", the leader of hope and the purveyor of change.

    I also blame the media for the same thing. They used words out to context to create the questions,which drove the news and gave the Obama campaign an opportunity to exploit them.

    Who are the Clinton surrogates that continue to muddy the water? I am just offering my opinion, based on an examination of history, words and actions. And frankly your suggesting without fact is race baiting.

    Parent

    On the contrary icebergslim (5.00 / 1) (#178)
    by JDEUNO on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 07:21:23 AM EST
    Are you an African-American, and if so, where are you from?  Again, more BS from people like yourself.  What you just said is COMPLETELY FALSE. THE MAJORITY OF AFRICAN-AMERICANS DID INDEED IDENTIFY WITH OBAMA BECAUSE OF THE COLOR OF HIS SKIN.  Being an African-American living in the city of Atlanta - I saw this first hand.

    Parent
    again (none / 0) (#161)
    by TimNCGuy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 08:30:29 PM EST
    the AA community heard things they way the media reported them and the way Axelrod told them to.

    Parent
    How do you feel about amy Sullivan (none / 0) (#117)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 06:44:06 PM EST
    ignoring African American women?

    Parent
    I put it to you.... (none / 0) (#134)
    by ineedalife on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:28:41 PM EST
    that there isn't a single white candidate on this planet who could have gone the course of that campaign and not be accused of racism. Obama was going around calling John Edwards the "White Man in the race" before he dropped out. If things had gone differently, and Edwards had emerged as the threat to Obama, by now he would be regarded as a grand wizard of the KKK by the black community. It is sad that crap like that works on black voters, but there it is. It is even sadder that works on a whole segment of self-loathing white voters too.

    Parent
    Another thing, unless you are black (1.00 / 2) (#142)
    by icebergslim on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:39:19 PM EST
    and grew up in this community, your information is sparse.

    The AA community was CLINTON COUNTRY, my own 75 year old father told me to my face Obama would not win.  So, the bitter chips need to be placed at the proper door, which is the Clinton Campaign.  They had every institutional advantage over ALL THE CANDIDATES and squandered it in the end.

    They did not understand the political climate of CHANGE and HRCs vote, as I have said repeatedly on Iraq, came back to haunt her for democratic voters.

    Lastly, the AA community have been solidly Democratic and have voted for many.  To use Edwards, if he was reading this would be upset, as the "white man excuse" is just inexcusable for your obvious candidate.

    The primary is over.  Move on.

    Parent

    Move on: Where have I heard that before? (5.00 / 2) (#146)
    by FemB4dem on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:47:36 PM EST
    Oh yes, that would be one of those "institutional advantages" Clinton had, wouldn't it?  Please.  Obama had the media and the Clinton haters, and the money groups like MoveOn. Hillary still won more votes.  Then it took that other "institutional advantage" -- the DNC -- to steal her delegates, and the "institutional advantage" of the Speaker of the House and Senate Majority Leader, to push superdelegates to abandon her.  Could you be more blind?  Yes, I for one have moved on -- moved on and away from what used to be my beloved Democratic Party.

    Parent
    Next you will tell us (5.00 / 1) (#175)
    by otherlisa on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 01:45:05 AM EST
    to get over it.

    And I still haven't gotten my pony, dammit.

    Parent

    You won! (none / 0) (#148)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:50:17 PM EST
    Stop being so angry.  As you've said, move on, like Moveon.org.

    Parent
    You haven't addressed my thesis (none / 0) (#165)
    by ineedalife on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 09:10:28 PM EST
    Before this race began I said that, as sure as the sun rises in the East, that any candidate against Obama will be labeled as a racist. And it came to past. It is an unavoidable in American politics. Over the course of a campaign it is inevitable that someone will say something, somewhere, that can be construed as racist. And people will do just that. It is not the Clinton's fault. They are victims of it. The ONLY person that could have stopped this was Barack Obama. And he chose not to. He won this battle. But he is diminished for it.

    Parent
    Place the bitter chips with the Clinton campaign? (none / 0) (#179)
    by JDEUNO on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 07:23:43 AM EST
    If you honestly believe the words that you are writing here, then I have a bridge in New York City to sell you.  

    Parent
    I am black, and live in the AA community.... (none / 0) (#181)
    by JDEUNO on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 07:30:49 AM EST
    And what you are trying to sell us is utter BS.  I can't believe that you would write some nonsense like this and try to pass it off as you know the AA community....sorry, you don't know the AA community.

    Parent
    Please provide a Link, or even better... (none / 0) (#137)
    by icebergslim on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:34:51 PM EST
    a video of Obama stating just those words.  And I am sure you can't, won't or just will not, because it did not happen.

    Parent
    Obama said it in one ofthe debates (none / 0) (#157)
    by TimNCGuy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 08:11:35 PM EST
    SC debate (n/t) (none / 0) (#162)
    by ineedalife on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 09:03:38 PM EST
    you know what... (none / 0) (#153)
    by TimNCGuy on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:56:58 PM EST
    the AA community may hear things differently.  But, it doesn't help when the media and the Obama campaign don't even report things accurately as they were said.  The "fairytale" comment was a perfect example of that.  Every news outlet, except Fox, reported that comment as it Clinton was saying that the Obama campaign was a fairytale.  But, if you saw it reported on Fox with all the context it was very easy to see Clinton was referring ONLY to Obama's claim to be consistently against the war and noting more.

    But, when you had all of the media and Michelle Obama and Donna Brazile telling everyone a different story, it'snot helpful.

    Parent

    It seems to be the order of the day (none / 0) (#124)
    by joanneleon on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:07:25 PM EST
    to deny that gender or sexism played any part in Hillary's loss of the primary.  This isn't the first article I've seen on this topic.  MSNBC is particularly piqued about being accused of misogyny.  It's amazing how the whole subject is treated.  

    I keep feeling like I'm being told to "sit down and shut up".  But I know what I witnessed in this campaign, and no pundit can change that opinion.  

    I wonder when the CDS will settle down.  Probably never.  One of the most interesting and disturbing things about humans is how there are some people that we love to hate.  Personally, I can't stand that tendency and I tend to get all contrarian when I see it happening.

    Women as a Voting Block (none / 0) (#143)
    by fctchekr on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 07:40:40 PM EST
    Now that Clinton has lost, let's face it, both Obama and McCain are in pursuit of her voting block. The Liberal media, once anti-Hillary, are now overflowing in their  positive coverage of her.

    The dishonest, untrustworthy, wife of the equally dishonest and untrustworthy spouse, is favored by Democrats for the Vice Presidency by 54%. Women favor the ticket by 60% and 51% of men oppose it.
    Maybe that's where sexism comes in.

    Marie C. Wilson of the White House Project wrote in a CNN Commentary that it's time for more Hillary Clintons, saying she started a political movement.

    A "Pew Research Center poll found that nearly 40 percent of Clinton's female supporters believe that her gender hurt her candidacy. This being 2008, that sexism often took a more subtle path than in the past, taking bites out of Clinton's authority and "likeability" in ways that were arguably more insidious than the overt epithets."

    Wilson goes on to say, "Overt or understated, this primary season was undeniably disrespectful to a woman who instead deserved our utmost respect, just like any other candidate for our nation's highest office."

    "Of course, gender played against Clinton, as it inevitably will as long as we stay in the business of throwing one woman at a time up to the top. Doing so necessitates that a woman prove she's "man enough" for the job, it demands an impossible level of "perfection," and it requires a balancing act between the tough and the feminine that even the Cirque du Soleil couldn't manage."

    "A sole woman vying for the top position will always have to be twice as good to be just good enough. The truth is, women have been empowered in this country, but we are not in power."

    "If Sens. Obama and McCain want the backing of Sen. Clinton's supporters, as they have both made clear they do, then each of them will have to find a way to show women real respect: by advocating policies that benefit women and families and by advancing women's leadership in their own campaigns and potential administrations."

    "If Obama can continue to speak to Clinton supporters as he did Tuesday night, eventually, he will be heard. As for Sen. McCain, his support of tax cuts for the wealthy and his positions on reproductive choice and health care make him the less natural surrogate for Clinton."

    "Still, expect to see his campaign continue to vie for the constituency. Women may yet struggle to garner respect as we lead, but nobody questions our power as a voting bloc."

    An excellent article at:
    http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/06/wilson/index.html

    Re yr Truthiness; No Dem candidate till Denver (none / 0) (#176)
    by Ellie on Sat Jun 07, 2008 at 06:47:45 AM EST
    Senator Clinton will represent her 18 million supporters and her delegates faithfully until, I hope, the convention. There she will decide whether to continue in the general election as the, unless she concedes beforehand.

    Senator Obama may continue to fulfill his first obligation to those who elected him to the Senate, as he promised, which is his first role on the national stage, or the Democrats will propel him over the finish line by disenfranchising millions of voters in MI and FL and awarding him his rival's hard-earned delegates.

    The Democrats haven't officially declared a candidate for POTUS or VPOTUS yet and won't do so -- can't do so -- until the August convention according to the situation today.

    The above are facts.

    I believe this will lose him the general election, although this is just my opinon.

    Parent

    a pattern of lunacy (none / 0) (#158)
    by pluege on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 08:15:01 PM EST
    Time also spouts those paragons of journalistic integrity and wisdom: republican lapdog joe klein and the king of psycho-insane big bill krystol.

    My grandfather sd., I know it's true; I read it (none / 0) (#159)
    by oculus on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 08:20:21 PM EST
    in a magazine.  I wonder if he would still say that now.  

    Parent
    Just anecdotal ... (none / 0) (#166)
    by Robot Porter on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 09:23:07 PM EST
    but, in the fairly lefty circles I travel, just about the only people who didn't treat me like a racist dinosaur when I said I supported Hillary were women.

    Many of these women voted for Obama, but still expressed admiration for Hillary and disgust over how the press were treating her.

    Sound reasoning BTD (none / 0) (#171)
    by pcronin on Fri Jun 06, 2008 at 10:09:59 PM EST
    It continues to amaze me how anti-Hillary some women are and the lengths they will go to just to minimize her. Like Pelosi.

    One has to wonder if its just the ole green eyed monster sneakin out! Or, snarkin out as in this case!
     --peniel