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Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Statistical Dead Heat

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:03:14 PM EST
Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, 2008 (all tags)
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Barack Obama and John McCain are in a statistical dead heat according to the Daily Gallup tracking poll. Why? Seems to me to be the high number of undecideds combined with those who won't vote for either.

Although the margin between Obama and McCain is now similar to what it was in the last few weeks of the Democratic primary race, the structure of the race looks slightly different than at any other time this year as a result of the relatively high percentage of voters -- 15% -- not favoring either major-party candidate. This includes 7% of voters who say they are undecided and 8% who say they will not vote for either candidate (including 1% who volunteer they will vote for another specific candidate).

....As a result, the percentages of Americans now supporting Obama and McCain are near the lowest seen for either candidate since Gallup Poll Daily tracking on the Obama-McCain matchup started in early March, and well below the high of 48% achieved by each at them at various times.

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    Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Statistical Dead Heat | 202 comments (202 topical)
    Well, that was some bounce. (5.00 / 5) (#1)
    by masslib on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:06:31 PM EST
    By the way, Kerry and Edwards have not ruled out the VP spot.  Sad.

    I thought I read that Edwards said no to VP (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by MO Blue on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:12:58 PM EST
    Has he said something since then to change this?

    Selecting Kerry for VP would be a sure way for Obama to quash the elitist meme.

    [ Parent ]

    The Yahoo Headline says: (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by masslib on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:17:43 PM EST
    "Edwards won't rule out run as VP"

    Kerry wouldn't rule it out a couple of days ago.  Pathetic.

    [ Parent ]

    Kerry as VP choice would be hilarious. (5.00 / 3) (#7)
    by MarkL on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:21:30 PM EST
    The original swiftboat smearers are still out there.
    Ya know, I was kind of hoping he would sue their pants off for libel after the election, but no, he's left their smears accepted as fact by millions.

    [ Parent ]
    Edwards would also be hysterical. (4.50 / 2) (#15)
    by masslib on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:23:19 PM EST
    I won't say why.  I'll just say there I see a smililarity between Edwards and Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    well, (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by sancho on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:28:01 PM EST
    edwards did finish in second place in the primary--second place man, that is. same as last time so why wouldnt he be vp choice again?

    if they pick edwards, i'd think many hillary supporters would be furious.

    [ Parent ]

    Not me (5.00 / 1) (#70)
    by stillife on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:56:18 PM EST
    I'd be laughing my a** off.

    No disrespect to Edwards, of course!

    [ Parent ]

    Something you won't say, or something (none / 0) (#18)
    by MarkL on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:24:27 PM EST
    you can't articulate?
    I'm curious---I don't see them as particularly similar.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh, I can articulate it. (none / 0) (#20)
    by masslib on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:25:08 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I bet you can! (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by ruffian on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:27:14 PM EST
    Very well, I feel sure. ;-)

    [ Parent ]
    Hmm.. I guess you won't say. (none / 0) (#24)
    by MarkL on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:26:27 PM EST
    I'm really curious.

    [ Parent ]
    me too, mums the word n/t (none / 0) (#25)
    by DandyTIger on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:27:05 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    soem sort fo gay thing? (none / 0) (#144)
    by Salo on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:39:57 PM EST
    Is that teh point you are making?  They look a bit glamourous together.  I'd advise Edwards to keep away from this ticket though. It's pure madness to run Obama after all the revalations.  Edwards would also have to turninto a vicious pitbull in the campaign. They are both compatrable message wise though.

    They could go very aggressively into the south this time round

    You could create a black and southern white reconcilliation.  The media would eat that up.

    [ Parent ]

    Gay thing? (none / 0) (#155)
    by masslib on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:47:59 PM EST
    No.

    [ Parent ]
    Are You... (none / 0) (#190)
    by Spike on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:10:11 PM EST
    really Ann Coulter?

    [ Parent ]
    When you see people titter (none / 0) (#202)
    by Salo on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:20:04 PM EST
    off in a corner about something vague you have to wonder what the hell they mean.

    Personally I'd like to see Obama get a southern guy on the ticket--and make sure he's unleashed to campaign in that region.  I personally think Edwards would have been the best nominee.

    BTD's attempt to unify with Clinton on the ticket? I read that as an attempt to cool off the anger he was seeing among the Clinton supporters here.

    Unless BTD was thinking have Bill run around in the south for him and have Cliton stake out teh rust belt while Obama full presses into Colorado and Iowa, I didn't see it as all that sincere or reality based (given the very real HATE that Obama's main backers have for Clinton.)

    It's best not to smirk about why Edwards would be a bad pick and simply say why.  Then there is no speculation about meaning.

    [ Parent ]

    Obama/Edwards ticket (none / 0) (#72)
    by stillife on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:57:42 PM EST
    would get the Live Journal fangurl base.  I hear tell they write slash fiction pairing Obama and Edwards.

    [ Parent ]
    Bwaaa! (none / 0) (#86)
    by davnee on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:07:46 PM EST
    That's so true.

    I don't think Obama would be wise to pick either member of the losing 2004 ticket.  It's not a winning message.  Besides, Kerry projects elitism from every pore and, well, picking Edwards would be just picking the male, yet decidedly less succesful and less experienced, version of Clinton.  

    [ Parent ]

    yet Edwards has been thru a national campaign. (none / 0) (#173)
    by Salo on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:58:45 PM EST
    Nothing embarrassing about him came out during the process. So it's a safe enough pick.  Not my suggestion that he ought to be picked o'course but there are positives.  If he's allowed a budget and set to the south he could do McCain all sorts of damage.

    [ Parent ]
    The statement I heard from Edwards (none / 0) (#35)
    by gyrfalcon on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:31:08 PM EST
    the other day was unequivocal.  There is no statement a pol can make that Da Media will deem to have "ruled out" anything.

    That said, any politician who is under heavy pressure from the presidential nominee to take the VP slot is going to have to consider it.

    I can say I have absolutely no intention of voting for Obama, but Yahoo would immediately claim that I hadn't "ruled out" voting for Obama.  And that would actually be true because I have no idea what unexpected thing/s might happen between now and the time I go to vote in November.

    Nobody with any honesty can "rule out" what they will or won't do or think in the future.  It's silly.


    [ Parent ]

    This morning on This Week (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by ruffian on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:25:55 PM EST
    He backed off from an absolute NO.

    [ Parent ]
    Bowling balls have more bounce (5.00 / 7) (#4)
    by DaleA on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:14:45 PM EST
    This is really shocking. Wonder who the 8% that won't vote for either is?

    [ Parent ]
    I'm one of those (5.00 / 9) (#8)
    by Dr Molly on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:22:11 PM EST
    Can't bring myself to vote for either.

    [ Parent ]
    Me too. (5.00 / 6) (#19)
    by masslib on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:24:41 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Jeralyn (5.00 / 8) (#127)
    by Ga6thDem on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:27:25 PM EST
    may have discovered her niche market. She has cornered the "none of the above" voters. LOL!

    [ Parent ]
    Knitters n/t (5.00 / 9) (#11)
    by MO Blue on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:22:30 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    ROFLMAO! (5.00 / 3) (#39)
    by gyrfalcon on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:32:35 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    bitter knitters (5.00 / 10) (#43)
    by Dr Molly on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:33:48 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Talk about a great t-shirt (5.00 / 4) (#62)
    by dianem on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:51:59 PM EST
    "Bitter Knitter". I'm actually considering learning to knit. I think I did something when I was a teenager, but it was pretty pitiful. I can at least crochet a potholder, but "bitter crocheter" doesn't have the same style.

    [ Parent ]
    Me three, plus a knitter n/t (5.00 / 1) (#44)
    by Valhalla on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:33:54 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I'm part of the 8%. n/t (5.00 / 4) (#12)
    by nycstray on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:22:44 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Me, too! (5.00 / 3) (#17)
    by Shainzona on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:23:52 PM EST
    And my husband three.  And our daughter, four.

    [ Parent ]
    LOL!!! What a great analogy! (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by Shainzona on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:23:11 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    almost everyone I know in VA, PA, WV, KY, and MD (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by DandyTIger on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:29:14 PM EST
    are part of the 8%. Just anecdotal of course, but just saying.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm in one of those states, and I don't think (5.00 / 6) (#32)
    by MarkL on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:30:40 PM EST
    I've met a single person who was a swing voter who said they would vote for Obama over McCain, while i met many people who said they would easily vote for Clinton over McCain.

    [ Parent ]
    Me too in FL (5.00 / 3) (#42)
    by ruffian on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:33:43 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    To be clear, I have met many (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by MarkL on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:36:02 PM EST
    strong Obama supporters... but it's the swing voters and swing states that are going to determine the magnitude of Obama's historic, landslide victory in November.

    [ Parent ]
    you'd think the geniuses (none / 0) (#176)
    by Salo on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:01:12 PM EST
    at eh DNC would decalre right now that they will reform the primary process in such a way that it produces the optimum Democrat for  half a dozen or so swing states like Mich, Ohio, Penn, Missouri.

    We 'd rarely lose the presidency if such a reform were enacted.

    [ Parent ]

    oh yea, should have said (5.00 / 3) (#45)
    by DandyTIger on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:35:24 PM EST
    all of them would vote for Clinton over McCain.

    [ Parent ]
    and dems are upset with Lieberman.... (5.00 / 2) (#194)
    by PssttCmere08 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:14:19 PM EST
    as he disses obama...what did they expect?

    link

    [ Parent ]

    This is too funny! (5.00 / 0) (#212)
    by Grace on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:27:58 PM EST
    I read about Obama and Lieberman's conversation in the Senate.  

    I guess Lieberman is showing them that he won't be pushed around.  Good for him!  What does "Independent" mean?  

    [ Parent ]

    Matt Stoller on Wash Journal today (5.00 / 9) (#60)
    by Josey on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:51:02 PM EST
    A woman caller identified herself as a Dem who will not vote for Obama. Obamabot Stoller dismissed her concerns about Obama, claiming she was really a Republican.
    Oh, and Stoller claimed Obama immediately distanced himself from Wright and Johnson when controversies about them arose.
    <sigh>

    And Dems bashed Bush for "creating his own reality"?!?
    lol

    [ Parent ]

    Obama running on his own is different (5.00 / 4) (#135)
    by Ellie on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:33:48 PM EST
    ... than Obama running against Hillary and smartly smacking around easy targets. The little MSM I've tuned in that's not still actively taking their whacks seem lost and bored now.

    I couldn't care less. Club Obama got their way and now they have to bring it. Their message and methods are unfocused gas.

    [ Parent ]

    The MSM is waiting... (5.00 / 4) (#204)
    by FlaDemFem on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:23:07 PM EST
    for the convention to make it official. Then they will open up on Obama. They can't do it until then because if they make him look unelectable, the SDs might switch to Hillary. And she can win against the GOP. So don't look for anything bad about Obama until after the convention. Then he should put on body armor, because they will get out the big guns. And he has given them so much ammo with his past associations that it will be like shooting fish in a barrel. I can't wait to see what the Obamablogs' reactions are to the onslaught. They will all get carpal tunnel syndrome trying to refute the 527's and the GOP news outlets. They won't be able to, but  they will try.

    [ Parent ]
    Funny... (5.00 / 1) (#209)
    by Thanin on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:27:14 PM EST
    Ive met many swing voters who're leaning towards Obama.  Guess anecdotal evidence doesnt amount to much.

    [ Parent ]
    McCain is working for Hillary voters (5.00 / 4) (#81)
    by Josey on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:04:38 PM EST
    Obama is working for Republican evangelicals and Indys.

    NoQuarter -
    http://tinyurl.com/64slst


    [ Parent ]

    obama's next bounce may be on the way (5.00 / 2) (#192)
    by PssttCmere08 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:11:53 PM EST
    out of the nomination.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm surprised (none / 0) (#41)
    by ruffian on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:33:13 PM EST
    I thought he'd get more out of it than this.

    I guess he needed all of those primaries to keep him in the news and give him a purpose for the big campaign events.

    [ Parent ]

    I don't mind Kerry being VP (none / 0) (#156)
    by Militarytracy on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:48:11 PM EST
    but I would really Edwards to be AG.

    [ Parent ]
    I'd like a lawyer with a record on (5.00 / 1) (#158)
    by oculus on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:50:22 PM EST
    behalf of upholding the U.S. Constitution and a reputation for being tough and firm.  

    [ Parent ]
    Got some names to share? (none / 0) (#187)
    by Militarytracy on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:06:49 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    After I wrote that, I thought, now who (5.00 / 1) (#189)
    by oculus on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:09:39 PM EST
    fits that description:  BTD!

    [ Parent ]
    Pathetic (5.00 / 13) (#2)
    by Stellaaa on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:08:37 PM EST
    All the excitement is gone.  They got what they wanted, and we still have two guys, two, mediocre guys, slamming each other trying to prove something.  I don't know what, but the thrill is gone.  One, is demi on our side, one is demi on the other side.  Ho, hum.  Euro Soccer cup is way more interesting.  

    Definately, the Euro soccer cup (5.00 / 8) (#6)
    by masslib on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:20:09 PM EST
    is more interesting.  A friend put it this way.  She said she hadn't realized her only interest in the race was Hillary.  And, now it's down to two boring guys who hopefully will have the courtesy of wearing different colored suits so we can tell them apart.  

    [ Parent ]
    Euro Soccer is fine, but (none / 0) (#80)
    by mg7505 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:04:34 PM EST
    The NBA Finals have me hooked.

    I think it's going to be a long, boring summer. When do the debates start? At least that will provide some quasi-substance. More likely than not we'll just find out who the media darling REALLY is. I can't wait to watch these two race to praise Reagan.

    As long as politics is theatre, why not laugh?

    [ Parent ]

    I wish they had a Clinton follow-up question (5.00 / 2) (#9)
    by davnee on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:22:20 PM EST
    in that poll.  It would be interesting to see where her primary supporters landed.  My guess is a lot had to have landed in that 8% voting neither column.  I'm also intrigued by the static nature of Obama's support.  How do you reconcile that with all the shifting underneath the numbers?  Any poll-savvy types have any theories?

    I agree (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by Valhalla on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:37:29 PM EST
    I think in the past most polling assumed the 'neithers' were mostly undecideds, in which case it's not worth surveying their reasons (at least not in daily tracking).

    But this year it would be interesting to see.  Also I'd love better breakdowns of the 'leaners'.

    [ Parent ]

    They will probably wait a bit (5.00 / 6) (#197)
    by dianem on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:15:21 PM EST
    Right now it's just too soon to really assess what is going on with Clinton's supporter's. Why spend money polling them when they probably haven't finished "grieving" (btw, if we were talking about men instead of women, the line would be "when they haven't decided which candidate to vote for in the general election - grief would have nothing to do with it - we know that men vote with their heads, not their hearts, right?).

    [ Parent ]
    Isn't this a period in time when all (5.00 / 10) (#10)
    by Shainzona on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:22:25 PM EST
    of America is supposed to be ga-ga over the new Dem "candidate"?  I mean he vanquished a nasty opponent and the only things standing in the way of HOPE and CHANGE is an old man.

    What's up?

    Maybe they have gone from (5.00 / 3) (#210)
    by FlaDemFem on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:27:17 PM EST
    ga-ga to gag-gag. Heh.

    [ Parent ]
    can we start over and get two other candidates (5.00 / 4) (#13)
    by DandyTIger on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:23:06 PM EST
    please. I know, how about the one dem candidate who actually... ok, I'll stop saying that here. :-) I think these numbers are telling. I seem to remember a recent poll that had a generic democratic candidate beating a generic republican candidate by nearly 20 points. It's dems year. This is really sad indeed.

    I don't know about these tracking polls though. I think they're kind of worthless. I bet the analysis by good polls is still Obama up by around 5pts. Still well below what it should be. Wonder if Obama being too afraid to debate McCain like he was about Clinton is having an effect. We'll see what happens after each convention and each VP pick. Some bounce on both sides I'm sure.

    Perhaps the refusal to do the town halls (5.00 / 6) (#57)
    by ruffian on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:45:49 PM EST
    is having an effect.  At least with Clinton Obama had the excuse that they had already had a lot of debates. I do think it looks bad when McCain is out there every day offering and Obama is refusing, or offering to do it on July 4th, which is a non-starter.

    [ Parent ]
    I agree - I'm stunned at... (5.00 / 6) (#67)
    by Shainzona on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:53:17 PM EST
    Obama saying he will only meet McCain once...and that's on the 4th of July when we will all be glued to the tube to see the event.

    Oh, wait, I forgot, I have other plans on July 4th and it doesn't include Barack Obama.

    [ Parent ]

    It's amazing (5.00 / 2) (#133)
    by Ga6thDem on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:33:24 PM EST
    to me that a 72 year old man is reaming a 47 year old on campaign stamina.

    [ Parent ]
    That 72 year old... (5.00 / 5) (#208)
    by dianem on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:26:23 PM EST
    ...has wanted to be President for almost as long as Obama has been alive. I was thinking that the age thing would kill McCain's campaign, until I read that McCain hiked the grand canyon - rim to rim - with his sons two years ago. I'm guessing that McCain figured that his age would be an issue, and wanted to put people at ease. It's a pretty smart move, actually. I don't even know a lot of people my age who could do that.

    [ Parent ]
    Tracking polls are as good any any (none / 0) (#174)
    by dianem on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:00:03 PM EST
    Actually, in a sense they are better. The fact that they call people every day means that they have a larger sample than a lot of one-shot polls. Any polls this are out are really meaningless except to take the temperature of the voting public. By election day everything will have changed - the 527's, both left and right wing, have barely started doing their thing.

    [ Parent ]
    Help me out, Obama supporters: (5.00 / 9) (#16)
    by MarkL on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:23:31 PM EST
    when will we detect the coming landslide for Obama?
    December?
    tick...tick...tick...tick... (5.00 / 4) (#68)
    by Josey on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:54:05 PM EST
    Perhaps Obamabots need to rachet up the Hillary hate to increase Obama's polling?
    Yeah - that'll work!


    [ Parent ]
    Here ya go (2.00 / 0) (#111)
    by jtaylorr on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:18:30 PM EST
    FiveThirtyEight: 308.5 - 229.5

    Electoral-Vote: 304 - 221

    Looks like a landslide to me.

    [ Parent ]

    Whew! And I thought he was going to lose (5.00 / 1) (#130)
    by MarkL on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:31:13 PM EST
    PA, OH, and MI.

    [ Parent ]
    Well (5.00 / 1) (#134)
    by jtaylorr on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:33:33 PM EST
    looks like you were wrong.

    [ Parent ]
    Ohio is statistically tied (5.00 / 0) (#186)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:05:56 PM EST
    As is Michigan.  And this is just after Obama sealed the nomination

    Next!

    [ Parent ]

    Statistically tied you say? (5.00 / 1) (#211)
    by jtaylorr on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:27:24 PM EST
    The latest Ohio polls had Obama ahead by 9 and that was pre-Obama clinching.
    But looking at only the latest polls is dumb. 538 uses a complicated regression that takes into account tons of variables (polls, polls in nearby states, previous elections, party ID, ect, ect) to predict the winner of each state so things like a bounce from winning the nomination have little effect on the overall projection.
    It currently gives Obama a 62% of winning Ohio and 58% of winning Michigan.


    [ Parent ]
    I'm predicting a landslide (none / 0) (#98)
    by frankly0 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:13:18 PM EST
    for "none of the above".

    Let's just hope that that's not the name of an actual person.

    [ Parent ]

    Perhaps this dead cat bounce will (5.00 / 6) (#21)
    by MarkL on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:25:55 PM EST
    be followed by a Schrodinger's cat bounce----it MAY be there, but you cannot disturb the quantum state by actual measurement.

    It's been over a week. (5.00 / 3) (#23)
    by AX10 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:26:01 PM EST
    Obama should have had a sizable "bounce" in the polls at this time.  It has not happened.  Most likely, it won't.  It will be a close election this fall.  Don't be suprised to see 5-8% of the vote going to Barr, McKinney, and a possible HRC write-in campaign.

    LOL.. a Clinton write-in campaign might (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by MarkL on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:27:08 PM EST
    hurt McCain more---it will keep former supporters who might for him away.

    [ Parent ]
    When enough people get sick... (5.00 / 3) (#34)
    by citizen53 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:30:58 PM EST
    of the process, really, then maybe it will change.

    We are in need of more viable political parties.

    It starts with a candidate that will push for true campaign finance reform.

    I am not holding my breath.

    Rasmussen Daily Polling (5.00 / 0) (#37)
    by Valhalla on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:31:40 PM EST
    Still has Obama up by 6 points, including 'leaners.'
    61% of voters say they will definitely vote for one or the other (36-31% Obama). 9% are neither defnites or leaners.

    Looking at the Gallup numbers, this is the second day in a row the two are statistically tied.

    On favorability ratings, McCain trails, but not by much, 2-3 points among most groups (except younger voters).  He is ahead with unaffiliated voters (which was a bit of a surprise to me) -- 55-51.

    Wonder How Much Larger That Unaffiliated (5.00 / 1) (#49)
    by MO Blue on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:36:53 PM EST
    voter pool has gotten.  

    [ Parent ]
    Rasmussen is using (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:38:59 PM EST
    a pretty high Democrat ratio in the model.  I wonder if that's changed....

    [ Parent ]
    I believe that the polls will be slanted to show a (5.00 / 4) (#106)
    by Aqua Blue on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:17:13 PM EST
    bias against Clinton on the ticket.

    Republicans control the pollsters and the only person Republicans are afraid of is Hillary.

    What the media (and big money) want:

    1.  Obama as the nominee.

    2.  Hillary not on the ticket.

    3.  "McCain wins!"    

    Karl Rove knows how to win elections.

    [ Parent ]
    How bad would the numbers have to get (5.00 / 2) (#54)
    by ruffian on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:43:25 PM EST
    before they realize they need Hillary on the ticket? How many people do they think they can compensate for with new voters and high turnout?

    Interesting times....

    Obama gave a Father's Day (5.00 / 1) (#55)
    by oculus on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:43:27 PM EST
    address at a Chicago church today.  Perhaps that will help his numbers.

    it was the greatest speech ever (5.00 / 6) (#59)
    by DandyTIger on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:50:57 PM EST
    about fathers. Kids will be reading about this in 100 years. It sent a tingle up my leg. Snark.

    [ Parent ]
    No one has done more (5.00 / 10) (#61)
    by stillife on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:51:55 PM EST
    for fatherhood than Barack Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    LOL (none / 0) (#151)
    by kempis on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:46:24 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    My Dad already said no, no, a thousand times no (none / 0) (#104)
    by Ellie on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:16:28 PM EST
    But then he's a habitual pseudo-Repug and Demo come lately who fell hard for "La Clinton".

    [ Parent ]
    No (none / 0) (#143)
    by Ga6thDem on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:39:47 PM EST
    but it's becoming more obvious to me everyday that he missed his calling. He should be an evangelical minister. He likes preaching to crowds etc. It's perfect for him.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm a pretty darn loyal Democrat. (5.00 / 17) (#64)
    by Joelarama on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:52:34 PM EST
    And I feel like Obama was shoved down my throat, while his apparatus systematically tried to tear down, and even paint as racist monsters, two of the politicians I respect most -- Bill and Hillary Clinton -- and denigrate everything they fought for in the 1990s.  These, after all, are battles that continue to be fought today.

    If a Democrat like me is going to have to hold his nose to vote for Obama, I can imagine what more independent-minded or conservative Democrats will do.

    In fact, I don't have to imagine.  Most of the Democrats in my very Democratic family will likely vote for McCain.

    Eventually, style and charisma (5.00 / 4) (#66)
    by Left of center on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:53:16 PM EST
    has to be followed by material and substance. Obama has proven himself to be an excellent motivational speaker/preacher, but not so much a great leader.

    I don't even give him credit for... (5.00 / 3) (#71)
    by Shainzona on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 02:56:23 PM EST
    style or charisma.  

    Obama was a non-starter for me from Day One.

    And now that it's Day 1,000,000,000...he's even less of a non-starter...if that's possible.

    [ Parent ]

    He's somewhere between Kerry and (5.00 / 2) (#84)
    by MarkL on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:06:13 PM EST
    Dukakis in both.

    [ Parent ]
    Can't Say That I Was Ever Motivated By (5.00 / 4) (#105)
    by MO Blue on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:16:40 PM EST
    Obama's speeches. Even in 04, I preferred Sharpton's speech because it had some substance to it.

    [ Parent ]
    I was a Kool Aid drinker in 2004 (5.00 / 7) (#122)
    by Valhalla on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:22:38 PM EST
    I remember watching Obama and thinking finally, finally, the Democrats have someone coming up the ranks who does not cause tears of boredom to run down my face every time they start talking.  Someone who can talk about democratic ideals without making me want to wince and rewrite their speeches for them.

    I would have shoved all of his supporters to the floor in my race to get to the front of the Dixie cup line.  Seriously.

    But then Massachusetts elected a new governor who ran on the same 'Hope and Change' platform as Obama, and I was 50/50 right up until the weekend before Super Tuesday.

    And now I'm in the 8% of Bitter Knitters.  Go figure.

    [ Parent ]

    "Coming up the ranks" is the key (5.00 / 4) (#167)
    by ruffian on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:55:53 PM EST
    If he had spent more time coming up the ranks and learning a thing or two I would have been an enthusiastic supporter.

    I'm more practical about things like qualifications and ability than I am emotional about stirring speeches.

    I really think he and the DNC jointly have squandered what could have been a long and brilliant career for the short-term gain of defeating the Clintons.

    [ Parent ]

    This is pretty typical of the kind of (5.00 / 7) (#76)
    by Joelarama on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:01:01 PM EST
    person who is driving my "dumb" parents (who hold three graduate degrees, two from Ivy League universities, between them) to vote for John McCain.

    I should say this is the kind of (5.00 / 4) (#78)
    by Joelarama on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:02:42 PM EST
    "attitude" or "rhetoric" that would turn off my parents and people like them.

    [ Parent ]
    Polls vary from day to day (5.00 / 1) (#79)
    by stillife on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:04:10 PM EST
    I know, but I find that large undecided/neither percentage quite interesting.  It certainly contradicts the meme being put out by the media that  Hillary supporters will fall in line for Obama.  Most will, probably, but even a few percentage points of holdouts could swing the election.  I don't recall back in 2000 or 2004 any Dems voting for Bush b/c they didn't like the Dem nominee.

    McCain is already courting these voters.  Whether or not it pays off, it's too early to tell, but I feel that Obama has painted himself into a corner by fueling his campaign with anti-Clinton sentiment and failing to reach out to Clinton supporters in any meaningful way.  I even wonder whether he will let her campaign for him.

    What makes you think "most will, (5.00 / 5) (#201)
    by FemB4dem on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:19:45 PM EST
    probably?"  I've been a politics geek for a long time.  I've never felt discontent like this among Dems, particularly not when the Repubs have held the WH for a long time.  No one was really a Kerry fan, but no dems I know didn't vote for him or ever threatened not to, and a lot of moderate repubs/Independents I know voted for him as a protest against Bush and his war.  No groundswell of anger, just disappintment in a bad candidate.  Those moderate repubs/Independents?  They are all quite happy with McCain.  Those dems?  There is fury against Obama -- absolute fury -- among women.  And among working class dems, there is out-and-out distrust.  I don't think either will dissipate, and it's more than a few percentage points, IMO.

    [ Parent ]
    Please stop calling my parents and people (5.00 / 10) (#88)
    by Joelarama on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:08:53 PM EST
    like them "dumb" or "stupid."  Can you get it through your thick mind that this type of labeling, typical of the Obama campaign, alienates people?

    Dismissing Appalachia as "racists," and saying the same about respectable Democrats, like Geraldine Ferraro, Bill and Hillary Clinton, as well as two Democratic governors, is part and parcel with calling people "dumb" and "stupid."

    You need to "bone up" on respect and civility toward others.

    Could we please (5.00 / 11) (#91)
    by Valhalla on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:11:09 PM EST
    put a moratorium on what McCain allegedly called his wife, at least until someone can link (or find a reference to) a solid source?  I haven't seen such a reference yet, and the constant repetition is getting old.

    On Roe, Obama nearly voted for Roberts, and was only thwarted by a staffer who pointed out it would not help his campaign.

    Soc Sec:  Obama's policies have flipped around a bit on privatization, this is not a strong point.

    Oil companies:  McCain voted against the Bush-Cheney energy bill, Obama voted for it.

    If you're going to try to frame those who support McCain as 'stupid' you'll likely not have a great deal more success than those who tried to paint those voting for Clinton as 'stupid'.

    I don't even care if there is a link. (5.00 / 4) (#114)
    by tree on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:19:21 PM EST
    I just don't want to hear it. And I don't care what Obama called his wife either, just in case there's some link to a story of Obama calling his wife a name. I DON'T CARE. If you can't talk about issues, then please keep quiet.

    (Obviously, this request is not directed at you, Valhalla.)

    [ Parent ]

    Good point (5.00 / 1) (#131)
    by Valhalla on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:31:59 PM EST
    That is what I should have said, actually.

    [ Parent ]
    The People have spoken (and they're right). (5.00 / 1) (#94)
    by RonK Seattle on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:12:06 PM EST
    It's a race to the bottom.

    As far as positions on issues, McCain has been everywhereover the map, and he'll alienate McCain voters as he settles into fixed positions.

    Obama, conversely, has been nowhere to be found, and he'll alienate Obama voters as he gets more specific.

    To the extent he adopted positions to differentiate himself form Hillary, he has already settle most of the way back to Hillary's positions (notably fixing social security and meeting with adversaries ... next, keep an eye on his health insurance mandate stance).

    At least twenty times (5.00 / 0) (#95)
    by Dr Molly on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:12:07 PM EST
    on various blogs, I have asked for evidence that that happened. I have still not received it.

    Evidence you wanted (none / 0) (#147)
    by Politalkix on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:42:22 PM EST
    It is supposedly in the book "The Real McCain" written by Cliff Schecter.

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks (5.00 / 1) (#200)
    by Dr Molly on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:18:50 PM EST
    But that's not evidence.

    I appreciate it though.

    [ Parent ]

    It was heresay evidence (none / 0) (#171)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:58:01 PM EST
    Nobody's on tape or anything.

    Schecter apparently needed something shocking to sell books.

    [ Parent ]

    If you're smart, you'll start shilling for McCain (5.00 / 3) (#96)
    by MarkL on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:12:44 PM EST
    on here. It will have the effect you desire.

    Good Job (5.00 / 4) (#97)
    by MO Blue on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:13:01 PM EST
    You are doing Obama proud and are a perfect example of the Obama campaign. Keep up the good work. I'm sure that Obama appreciates your efforts.

    Lose the attitude (5.00 / 4) (#108)
    by Valhalla on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:17:59 PM EST
    and start telling us why we should vote for Obama, please.  Reasons that do not include 'because he's not McCain.'

    Precisely (5.00 / 4) (#161)
    by lentinel on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:52:01 PM EST
    On Crooks and Liars, which supports Obama, each day appears four or five stories about the evil one, McCain.

    It would be more helpful to their cause if they, and Obama's supporters who are popping up now, would extol some of his virtues instead of McCain's deficiencies.

    Personally, I think that's going to be a problem.

    Is he going to get us out of Iraq if elected?
    Don't tell me that McCain won't. I'm not voting for him.
    What is Obama going to do? Last I heard he was saying uh ... 2012 - maybe.

    Phooey.
    The right to vote is precious. It is equally important to have someone to vote FOR. Right now, Obama is not that candidate.


    [ Parent ]

    but demonizing the opponent is what worked in the (5.00 / 4) (#184)
    by kempis on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:03:36 PM EST
    primaries. New politics and all that.

    [ Parent ]
    Dudgeon? (5.00 / 5) (#115)
    by stillife on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:19:33 PM EST
    Is that what they're calling doubts about Obama's record these days?  

    Some Obama supporters need to wake up and smell the latte.  He's got a teensy little problem with a slice of the electorate that could cost him in November.  It doesn't do any good to ignore it or condemn those who are considering other options.

    I remember similar comments on a progressive message board that I used to frequent back in 2004.  Anybody who criticized Kerry or raised questions about his electability was shouted down and called a "Freeper".  Well, we all know how that ended up, don't we?

    And it's 100X worse now.  It doesn't help you or your candidate to live in a bubble.  Problems exist.  If they're not dealt with, they will get worse.

    I don't know who (5.00 / 6) (#129)
    by stillife on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:31:03 PM EST
    I'll be voting for, but I'm fairly certain I won't be voting for Obama.  I'll be weighing my options over the next several months.

    There are a variety of reasons to vote for McCain, or a 3rd party candidate, and I respect them, just as I respect Clinton supporters who are voting for Obama.  Voters are motivated by a variety of factors.  It's condescending and belittling (and does nothing to help your candidate) to presume to label and read the minds of voters who don't support him.

    [ Parent ]

    Out of the loop (none / 0) (#145)
    by Valhalla on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:40:55 PM EST
    ok, what's a 'freeper'?  (I'm obviously not hip)

    [ Parent ]
    Freeper (none / 0) (#148)
    by stillife on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:42:48 PM EST
    is a derogatory term for a conservative, a reader of "Free Republic".

    [ Parent ]
    How about as a protest vote (5.00 / 3) (#116)
    by frankly0 on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:20:04 PM EST
    to demonstrate that, first and foremost, you won't support a party that won't respect who you are as a person?

    OMFG (5.00 / 2) (#117)
    by Dr Molly on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:20:05 PM EST
    Go away.

    I'm not voting for him. (5.00 / 5) (#119)
    by Joelarama on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:20:48 PM EST
    But my understanding is that they do not like his character or trust his judgment, based on among other things (1) his long-term affiliation with Rev. Wright; (2) his suggestions he would consider privatizing social security; (3) his campaign's above-mentioned race-baiting; (4) his failure to embrace universal health care.

    In other words, they don't know what he stands for after a campaign built on race-bating, "hope," "change" and the milestone of having our first African-American president.  They do not think he is a true progressive, and they think he is s stuffed shirt.

    Moreover, they are older and buy the idea that the "post-9/11" world needs a strong president.  They do not trust Obama to be tough or experienced enough to be President in that world.

    That's it.  After your incivility, it's more response than you deserve, and it's the last acknowledgment you get from me.

    Talk to the hand (5.00 / 3) (#125)
    by Dr Molly on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:25:53 PM EST
    Obnoxious bee.

    Telling you that you are doing a good job (5.00 / 4) (#126)
    by MO Blue on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:26:32 PM EST
    is indignation? Don't you think that you are doing a good job representing your candidate? If you do, then why would you think my comment was anything less than a compliment? If not, then why would you go on line and go out of your way to do your candidate harm?

    Not a McCain supporter (5.00 / 1) (#136)
    by Dr Molly on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:34:17 PM EST
    But you're on a roll with your arrogant assumptions about everyone, so please don't stop now!

    and this is before (5.00 / 0) (#139)
    by cpinva on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 03:35:08 PM EST
    the repub 527's start chiming in. yeah, sen. obama is a real slam dunk for the dems.

    is it too late for pat paulson to jump in? yeah, i know he's still dead, but he'd still be a better candidate than a live sen. obama.

    Wouldn't Be The First Time That Voters (5.00 / 3) (#177)
    by MO Blue on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:01:33 PM EST
    in MO elected a dead candidate over a live one. I could vote for Paulson.

    [ Parent ]
    Hey, looky here (5.00 / 1) (#213)
    by tree on Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 04:34:29 PM EST
    He's still running for President, even from the Great Beyond.

    "His consistency has been amazing," notes Mark Soifer, Doo Dah Parade co-founder. "He ran in 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, and 1992 when he beat Ross Perot in the North Dakota primary. In 1996, he finished second to Bill Clinton in New Hampshire. Now he's returned from the Great Beyond in an attempt to haunt the Oval Office.

    "I'm pleased as punch to have been named New Jersey Campaign Manager by Noma Paulsen," says Soifer. "The Doo Dah Board of Governors believes that Pat's ghost can bring a refreshing, humorous approach to the present campaign.

    Paulsen has a solid platform, said Soifer. Here are two of his ideas:

    On Foreign Aid: We should ask