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NC Exits, Thread 2

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:32:16 PM EST
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(BTD) The NC exits. Obama wins. Whites (63%) go Clinton by 59-36 (5% missing?). African Americans (33%) go Obama by 93-7.

4% of the vote is missing from this exit poll. Right now it shows 55-39.

Comments now closed.

< Indiana Results: Thread Two | New Elections Thread, CBS Calls Indiana for Hillary >

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    NC Exits, Thread 2 | 207 comments (207 topical)
    BTD apologize to Zogby! (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by GOPmurderedconscience on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:34:20 PM EST
    He seems to have come pretty close in NC.

    He said Obama would win Indiana (5.00 / 2) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:35:46 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Why apologize? (5.00 / 1) (#156)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:12:50 PM EST
    Even a broken clock is correct twice daily.

    [ Parent ]
    0_o (none / 0) (#2)
    by Faust on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:35:25 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I don't understand why NC was called this early... (none / 0) (#152)
    by Exeter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:11:51 PM EST
    ...as compared to saying "too early to call" as they traditionally do until they get some bellweather areas in.

    [ Parent ]
    Wait...only 36% white for Obama? (5.00 / 1) (#3)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:35:37 PM EST


    Am I wrong (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by Iphie on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:39:55 PM EST
    in thinking that that figure does not bode well for Obama? I mean, beyond today?

    [ Parent ]
    No you are not (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by angie on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:40:55 PM EST
    he can't win the GE with that kind of number for white votes.

    [ Parent ]
    His white numbers are dropping (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by nycstray on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:44:23 PM EST
    and he already didn't have Hispanic . . .

    now how's he gonna win the GE?

    [ Parent ]

    That's the usual white vote for Obama (none / 0) (#102)
    by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:00:02 PM EST
    across all the states so far.  That's why he can't take the GE.  Bill Clinton needed 45% of it to give us our only Dem prez in decades.  Gore and Kerry got a bit over 40% -- and it wasn't enough.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama if he's lucky (none / 0) (#109)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:01:23 PM EST
    gets 39%

    [ Parent ]
    Be interesting to see (none / 0) (#117)
    by riddlerandy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:03:32 PM EST
    Hillary win it with seven percent of the AA vote, too

    [ Parent ]
    The difference, though, (none / 0) (#142)
    by Exeter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:09:42 PM EST
    is that black voters will stay home or vote for Hillary. White voters are much more likely to vote McCain, which is twice as worse than simply staying at home.

    [ Parent ]
    I am sure you believe that (none / 0) (#160)
    by riddlerandy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:13:10 PM EST
    but that doesnt make it so,

    [ Parent ]
    Have you taken into account the percentage (none / 0) (#187)
    by Florida Resident on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:17:09 PM EST
    of voters in the GE that AA voters compromise as opposed to white voters?

    [ Parent ]
    On the flip side (none / 0) (#147)
    by sarissa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:11:20 PM EST
    9% AA for Hilary is abysmal :(  What happened?  Shouldn't she be peeling off more AA females?

    [ Parent ]
    There's no reqason to suppose (none / 0) (#157)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:12:51 PM EST
    that Obama would get anything less than the Stalinist 90%

    [ Parent ]
    On TV, CNN say he got 41% of whites. (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by Teresa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:35:45 PM EST


    Well (none / 0) (#38)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:47:16 PM EST
    The web site does not.

    [ Parent ]
    I saw that. They must be meaning (none / 0) (#61)
    by Teresa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:52:30 PM EST
    non-AA rather than just white, I guess. Or they are just wrong one place.

    [ Parent ]
    I half-expect CNN ... (none / 0) (#180)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:15:35 PM EST
    ... to try and tell us why the Asian-American vote is such a huge factor tonight.

    [ Parent ]
    SUSA was right about AAs (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:36:51 PM EST
    I think this might be a case where Obama looks better in the exits than he actually does. Think Georgia.

    The AA vote is huge for Obama (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by oldnorthstate on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:40:32 PM EST
    Enormous.  Beyond enormous.  It is unreal.

    [ Parent ]
    Wright didn't hurt him at all w. the black voters (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by bridget on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:45:49 PM EST
    that's for sure

    [ Parent ]
    case closed. (none / 0) (#64)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:52:45 PM EST
    indeed.

    They can't hold him to anything can they?

    [ Parent ]

    Take a look at how Michelle campaigned (none / 0) (#183)
    by Shainzona on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:16:06 PM EST
    in NC.  It was a revival meeting!

    http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OGQ1MzFkMWU4MmYxMjhkZmNiZGE5YWY3NWUzNGMyMmY=

    [ Parent ]

    What would you expect? (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by Mrwirez on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:47:20 PM EST
    I still won't vote for him

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks Ralph (none / 0) (#80)
    by Molly Bloom on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:56:14 PM EST

    "Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
    [ Parent ]

    It's almost as if (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by Edgar08 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:48:12 PM EST
    They've only considered one thing when voting for him.


    [ Parent ]
    Almost??? (5.00 / 1) (#60)
    by sickofhypocrisy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:52:15 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Well I do wonder (5.00 / 1) (#73)
    by Edgar08 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:54:45 PM EST
    If MLK's dream included 95% of the black population voting for a black candidate?


    [ Parent ]
    The first serious one? (5.00 / 4) (#100)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:59:34 PM EST
    You bet it would have.  Listen, it's one thing to be a little disappointed more AAs don't see Hillary as vastly better, but nobody, none of us, should be criticizing those voters for voting for the first guy ever who looks like them, has a reasonable approximation of their overall political values, and has a very real chance to be POTUS.

    Many of us who are, ahem, not white males understandably have a hard time really understanding  the power of that possibility because it's simply never been on the radar screen in all of human history.

    [ Parent ]

    Wow (none / 0) (#129)
    by Edgar08 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:06:45 PM EST
    "Looks like them".

    [ Parent ]
    Let me make one thing clear to everyone (none / 0) (#168)
    by Edgar08 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:13:53 PM EST
    Cause there are clearly things you can and can't say about all this crap.   Even on this blog.

    But I will make one thing perfectly clear.

    If women were voting for Clinton to the tune of 93/6, I'd be saying the exactly same thing about them.


    [ Parent ]

    Kind of like, say, (none / 0) (#170)
    by sickofhypocrisy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:14:22 PM EST
    a female president?  Yet white and hispanic women are not voting on genitalia.  

    [ Parent ]
    dunno.. (none / 0) (#97)
    by p lukasiak on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:59:24 PM EST
    but I doubt that he would want 92% of them who said that race wasn't important voting for a Black candidate.

    That's the number that always kills me in these exit polls.   The only explanation for it (other than lying, or some really severe lack of self-awareness) that I can come up with is that Wright was correct about the whole right brain-left brain thing.

    And I'd rather think that AA are just lying.

    [ Parent ]

    But BO's white numbers are horrible. (5.00 / 1) (#51)
    by Shainzona on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:50:48 PM EST
    I read someplace that if he doesn't break 40% with white voters he has big problems.

    [ Parent ]
    OK.........well, (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:37:00 PM EST
    I think I agree with the CNN pundit.  This is not close enough.

    They called NC already? (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by joanneleon on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:37:41 PM EST
    I saw that CNN and MSNBC called NC as soon as the polls closed.  I have to admit, that's kind of weird, given that Indiana results are still pouring in and the state hasn't been called even though the spread is not tight.

    Strange.  Are the exit polls that reliable?

    He got 91% of the AA vote (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by angie on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:40:14 PM EST
    which made up 1/3 of the votes -- no way can Hillary win it, but we still have to wait for the margin -- if she keeps it close it is good for her no matter what the pundits say -- remember Obama was always expected to win NC because of demographics -- IN was to be the "tie-breaker." Plus, Hillary is winning more white votes.

    [ Parent ]
    Only when they favor Obama (none / 0) (#15)
    by stillife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:40:37 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    CNN actually had a countdown so they... (none / 0) (#56)
    by Shainzona on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:51:27 PM EST
    could all shout Obama wins NC!!!  He's so awesome.

    [ Parent ]
    Nice "post-racial" coalition there. (5.00 / 2) (#11)
    by MarkL on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:40:01 PM EST


    It's post Stalin. (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:42:08 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    No, we are having a dialogue about race (5.00 / 2) (#22)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:42:15 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Where; when? (none / 0) (#37)
    by oculus on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:47:03 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    No wait...monologues (5.00 / 2) (#46)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:48:39 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    The Speech II (5.00 / 1) (#67)
    by oculus on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:53:33 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    True. but who is at fault? (none / 0) (#62)
    by sarissa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:52:31 PM EST
    Why does Obama get all the "blame" about this? Clinton should be getting more of the black vote than she is and has been.  9% is shameful - thanks Bill :(

    [ Parent ]
    Don't blame Bill (5.00 / 2) (#76)
    by ineedalife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:56:04 PM EST
    If it wasn't one thing it would have been another. Obama's strategy was to mine every interview done by the Clinton camp to find something they could distort to betray them and their supporters as racists.

    You could say it was inevitable and smart politics but I will never vote for Obama now.

    [ Parent ]

    Not Bill's fault (5.00 / 1) (#114)
    by ruffian on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:03:01 PM EST
    Obama camp played the race card masterfully, at least for a Dem primary.  He could have won the nom without it, and not alienated whites (like me) in the process.  It will sink him in the GE.

    [ Parent ]
    Because it was Obama who started (5.00 / 4) (#81)
    by angie on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:56:22 PM EST
    calling the Clinton's racist on such bs pretexts as Hillary's "tears" in NH, Bill's use of the word "fairy tale," etc., etc. -- remember the "How to play the race card" memo the Obama camp produced that pumpkinhead held up at the NV debate? This was not the fault of anything said by Hillary or Bill.

    [ Parent ]
    this is about Wright... (5.00 / 2) (#115)
    by p lukasiak on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:03:12 PM EST
    not Clinton.

    Its a purely "defensive" vote -- AA feel they can't abandon Obama when he is being "attacked because of his race."  

    But the exact same dynamic is killing Obama with with voters, whose objections to Wright aren't really about "race" qua "race", but about Wright's perspective on racial issues.  

    [ Parent ]

    But in the General Election (none / 0) (#150)
    by stefystef on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:11:37 PM EST
    race will be an issue.  Many white who voted for Obama said they would vote for McCain in the General Election.

    Obama won't hold onto a significant white electorate when up against McCain.

    If Obama is the nominee, McCain is the President of the United States.

    [ Parent ]

    that's exactly right (none / 0) (#162)
    by Dr Molly on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:13:29 PM EST
    So, where does that leave us?

    The racial divide is really depressing here.

    Oh, and one thing that hasn't been much discussed, but which I'm sure will be forthcoming - the new pastor of Trinity makes Rev. Wright look mainstream.

    So the racial polarization may yet deteriorate.

    [ Parent ]

    100% in agreement with that!! It was a defensive (none / 0) (#194)
    by DeborahNC on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:18:51 PM EST
    vote, IMO. No doubt! I think when she began closing the gap, it was motivation to really get out there for Obama for some folks!

    [ Parent ]
    to who? (none / 0) (#75)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:55:18 PM EST
    I'd personally be more comfortable with the Democratic Party if more white people voted Dem and less black.

    There's no way that 90% of the black population actually is socially liberal and fiscally liberal.

    [ Parent ]

    Ugh! (1.00 / 1) (#191)
    by sarissa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:18:50 PM EST
    So 1 white voter is worth more than 1 black voter in your calculus then?  In what percentage - 3/5 maybe?  Crawl back under your rock please.

    [ Parent ]
    Ugh! (1.00 / 1) (#192)
    by sarissa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:18:50 PM EST
    So 1 white voter is worth more than 1 black voter in your calculus then?  In what percentage - 3/5 maybe?  Crawl back under your rock please.

    [ Parent ]
    I'll jump in (I have flame retardent underwear) (5.00 / 1) (#203)
    by owenaprhys on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:54:32 PM EST
    I think what he is saying is that human nature being what it is, that 90% who is voting for him, might only be 50% in line with his policies. So It isn't so much 1 white voter equals more than 1 black voter, but 1 white voter might equal more of a dem than 2 black voters, when one of them might go rep in the GE.

    [ Parent ]
    As Bill would say (none / 0) (#137)
    by riddlerandy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:07:56 PM EST
    Jesse Jackson did well there too

    [ Parent ]
    NC Live Results (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by ChuckieTomato on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:40:37 PM EST
    Here

    According to this chart (none / 0) (#24)
    by stefystef on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:42:28 PM EST
    Obama is behind Hillary.  Can someone explain this?

    [ Parent ]
    It's very early (none / 0) (#27)
    by ChuckieTomato on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:43:19 PM EST
    Metros haven't reported yet

    [ Parent ]
    Yes, I understand (none / 0) (#169)
    by stefystef on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:14:00 PM EST
    I see the changing in the votes.
    When does the early vote ballots get counted?

    [ Parent ]
    The Election Is Now Completely Racialized (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by dugan49 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:42:14 PM EST
    93% black vote for Obama guarantees racial polarization in this country. Blacks and leftists do not realize or understand this.

    Obama's racist pastor meant nothing to blacks in N.C.

    I agree... (5.00 / 2) (#25)
    by stefystef on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:43:01 PM EST
    and this kind of emphasis on the AA votes will not play well in WV and KY.

    [ Parent ]
    Leftists no (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by catfish on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:45:26 PM EST
    but blacks might. Completely understand voting identity-wise for a viable candidate. But a lot of blacks are women.

    [ Parent ]
    I dunno.... (none / 0) (#126)
    by p lukasiak on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:05:36 PM EST
    when 92% of African Americans who say that race was not a factor in their decision wind up voting for Obama, you gotta wonder to what extent they are aware of the actual dynamic in this campaign.

    [ Parent ]
    Leftists actually do understand that. (5.00 / 3) (#43)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:48:29 PM EST
    I consider myself a European Style Social Democrat who would be on the left side of a Labour UK, argument. Because that's literally what I am.

    What you have is some social democratic leftists who realize that this sort of polarization is destructive, and some revolutionary leftists who actually see it as a good.

    Obama is really showing his Alinski bathos right now.  Clinton is showing her Attlee-like seriousness.

    She's got the more useful coalition to enact reform.  His looks like a polite version of the SDS Socialist Workers Party Platform.

    ordinary voters will begin to realize this and whig out without really understanding why.

    [ Parent ]

    Bingo! (5.00 / 2) (#57)
    by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:51:38 PM EST
    That's the American non-academic version of saying.......

    I so agree.

    [ Parent ]

    BINGO! twice over (5.00 / 2) (#119)
    by RalphB on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:03:55 PM EST
    Democrats are going to nominate someone who will make Dukakis look like a winner.

    [ Parent ]
    heh.. (none / 0) (#132)
    by p lukasiak on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:07:02 PM EST
    ordinary voters will begin to realize this and whig out without really understanding why.

    great pun!

    [ Parent ]

    How does Obama's base grow for the GE? (5.00 / 1) (#66)
    by OxyCon on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:53:18 PM EST
    Obama has monopolized the AA vote in the Democratic party, and even though he owns this demographic, he's still only beating Hillary by a very slim margin.
    My question is, how does Obama grow his base for the general election? We all know there aren't many AA Republican votes out there for him. I think his voter appeal is maximized and there is no where for him to grow. I do not see conservatives voting for him, be they Dem or Repub.

    [ Parent ]
    Personally, I think he doesn't (5.00 / 7) (#72)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:54:31 PM EST
    we're screwed.

    [ Parent ]
    And at 4 times what it will cost McCain? (5.00 / 1) (#121)
    by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:03:58 PM EST
    I know Obama has tapped a lot of donors, a lot of bucks -- but really, if it costs him this much to win primaries, imagine the cost of the GE.

    [ Parent ]
    Weeks in PA, 3:1 spent, didn't even budge Nos. (5.00 / 2) (#206)
    by Ellie on Tue May 06, 2008 at 08:01:40 PM EST
    And that's up against a fellow DEM.

    He's alienated other minority voters, repelled seriously loyal Dems -- including the kind of Dems who get out the vote -- and hasn't made "back" the equivalent with new registrants / donors.

    If the Dems go all in based on this, they might as well hang millstones downticket IMO. When the sh!t really starts flying out of the Repug catapults, those are the ones who'll bear the brunt of it.

    Incidentally, Donna Brazille is being especially nauseating: beaming and saying she'll cook stuff for Bill Bennet and Lou Dobbs, and getting tetchy about GE concerns, saying she wants to discuss ISSUES not superficialities. (Oh bake it, Donna.)

    I'm going to tune in later to see how it looked when the dice stopped. The Obama spokesbot is still flogging the "eleven contests in a row" faux accomplishment which doesn't portend well.

    [ Parent ]

    Maybe true, but his supporters (none / 0) (#139)
    by independent voter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:09:03 PM EST
    are willing to fund it.

    [ Parent ]
    I could swear I just heard... (5.00 / 2) (#144)
    by OxyCon on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:09:56 PM EST
    ...Donna Brazille basically saying something about a "new" democratic party that doesn't need to rely on white, working class voters.
    WTF?
    Am I being tossed out of my political party?
    Because, I'll be glad to tell you, I really do not need any more motivation for leaving the party.

    [ Parent ]
    I have (5.00 / 3) (#155)
    by dissenter on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:12:38 PM EST
    two college degrees. Apparently I will be right behind you.

    [ Parent ]
    The whole CNN team (5.00 / 4) (#199)
    by lilburro on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:47:57 PM EST
    is quite happy to dismiss the white working class/rural vote tonight.  Obnoxiously so.  Because apparently, in the Democratic Party, they are second only to aliens in terms of the smallness of their representation.

    The new Dem message:

    We don't need you, but you should know, it's in your economic interest to vote for us.

    WTF?  Does this pan out in the long run?  No.  Not at all.  

    [ Parent ]

    Voting patterns guarantee racial polarization? (none / 0) (#108)
    by Molly Bloom on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:01:20 PM EST
     At best it might be evidence of racial polarization, but it does not guarantee racial polarization. Oy Vey!

    "Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
    [ Parent ]

    Oh brother! (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by ChiTownDenny on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:43:39 PM EST
    What would be her strategy now, 2209?  NC just broke my heart.

    On CNN (none / 0) (#138)
    by ChiTownDenny on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:08:40 PM EST
    Donna Brazile just said the Dem party is expanding/changing.  Barack doesn't need "blue collar" votes to win the GE!

    [ Parent ]
    she also said, don't need Hispanics (5.00 / 1) (#151)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:11:39 PM EST
    either....

    [ Parent ]
    Axelrod just said (none / 0) (#181)
    by ChiTownDenny on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:15:46 PM EST
    he thinks the party will come together.  Will someone give him this site's web address.  I don't think so.

    [ Parent ]
    Brazille actually said those things? (none / 0) (#202)
    by jawbone on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:53:20 PM EST
    The 10% party? With some higher socio-economic whties? And young people?

    [ Parent ]
    Well that's a Mccain commercial right there. (5.00 / 1) (#174)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:14:49 PM EST
     

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe it's time for a 3rd party because (5.00 / 2) (#200)
    by ChiTownDenny on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:50:26 PM EST
    I see THIS Dem party polarized/split.  I don't see us coming together in Nov.  And a DNC bigshot just said she doesn't care about core Dem demographics.

    [ Parent ]
    What more could she have done? (5.00 / 2) (#33)
    by OrangeFur on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:45:36 PM EST
    She won whites by 23 points. The AA vote is simply lost for her.

    If the reality is that she has to win whites by much more than that, then it's simply impossible. You can't demand someone win the white vote by 40 points.

    I'm not sure you'd want it to happen (5.00 / 2) (#49)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:50:23 PM EST
    period.

    that sort of a majority denotes a chilly political reality.

    The Dems themselves don't even get that sort of a performance out of the GOP.

    [ Parent ]

    Where did you get that number? (n/t) (none / 0) (#48)
    by cmugirl on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:49:46 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    The 23 points... (none / 0) (#87)
    by OrangeFur on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:58:12 PM EST
    ... is from BTD's calculation. A 40-point margin among whites is about what she needed to overcome Obama's 80-point margin among blacks, who make up 1/3 of NC's voters.

    The demographics are basically insurmountable. Even nationally, if the AA vote is about 20 points (just a guess), she'd have to win the remaining voters by 20 points to overcome a 90-10 split among blacks.

    That's an almost impossible demand, it seems.

    [ Parent ]

    Huh? Nationally, she wouldn't be up against (none / 0) (#125)
    by Cream City on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:05:30 PM EST
    an AA.  She still has the better stats to beat McCain.

    [ Parent ]
    And Obama (none / 0) (#135)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:07:30 PM EST
    will bleed hispanic support to McCain. God...it will be a McCain landslide of epic proportions.

    [ Parent ]
    I meant nationally... (none / 0) (#154)
    by OrangeFur on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:12:07 PM EST
    ... in the sense of the Democratic primary.

    [ Parent ]
    BTD, please offer your opinion ... (5.00 / 1) (#45)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:48:37 PM EST
    ...as to why CNN considers Indiana "too close to call" with 20% of the returns are in and Hillary Clinton up by 17 points, but North Carolina is called for Obama within seconds of the polls' collective closing in that state, based merely upon exit poll data.

    Indianapolis and Gary (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:51:03 PM EST
    But frankly, their regional exits do not support their assumptions.

    I am getting the feeling the exits are significantly off tonight.

    [ Parent ]

    I agree (none / 0) (#68)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:53:42 PM EST
    but which way do you think they're off? Like PA in IN?

    [ Parent ]
    Look at Marion county (none / 0) (#113)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:02:57 PM EST
    The exits said Obama 71-29. It is running 60-40.

    [ Parent ]
    AAs over-represented (none / 0) (#118)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:03:52 PM EST
    SUSA smarter than the exits?

    [ Parent ]
    isn't marion (none / 0) (#141)
    by p lukasiak on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:09:24 PM EST
    isn't marion the GOP county where there were lots of voters earlier today?

    [ Parent ]
    No (none / 0) (#146)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:11:14 PM EST
    Marion is home of Indianapolis.

    [ Parent ]
    The NC exits... (none / 0) (#71)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:54:18 PM EST
    ...have Obama winning women, which I find hard to believe even with the overwhelming AA vote for him.

    [ Parent ]
    That's why he's winning women (none / 0) (#74)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:55:06 PM EST
    it's very believable.

    [ Parent ]
    I do not (none / 0) (#85)
    by americanincanada on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:57:35 PM EST
    believe for one second that Obama won women in NC.

    [ Parent ]
    Then you can't do math (5.00 / 1) (#89)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:58:30 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    If black women... (5.00 / 1) (#99)
    by OrangeFur on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:59:30 PM EST
    ... were a third of all the women, then yes, he probably won among women.

    [ Parent ]
    yeah, you're right... (none / 0) (#94)
    by Dawn Davenport on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:58:50 PM EST
    I realized that after looking at the percentages again.

    [ Parent ]
    Were that they're off in NC, too! (none / 0) (#78)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:56:11 PM EST
    American media has become a tacky self-parody.

    [ Parent ]
    I agree (none / 0) (#63)
    by Mrwirez on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:52:43 PM EST
    Its Bu!!$hit.

    [ Parent ]
    Because the major areas.... (none / 0) (#65)
    by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:52:53 PM EST
    Indianapolis and Gary.....aren't in yet.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama "loses" momentum (5.00 / 2) (#55)
    by stefystef on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:51:22 PM EST
    because he was suppose to win NC by about 20% because many thought he had the white voters.

    Hillary really strengthened her coalition.  What unity can Obama offer?  None.  He can't win Red States in November, but Hillary can.

    If Obama is the nominee, McCain is the President.

    sorry he's done (5.00 / 2) (#58)
    by kmblue on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:52:00 PM EST


    Wright actually good for BO in the AA community (5.00 / 3) (#59)
    by GOPmurderedconscience on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:52:08 PM EST
    When the press and everyone else took the issue, we felt besieged, even I as a Hillary supporter.

    I think we always regroup as soon as we feel one of ours is attacked.

    Makes sense (5.00 / 1) (#95)
    by Steve M on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:59:12 PM EST
    If I were black I'd find it awfully hard not to be upset by the obvious double standard.

    [ Parent ]
    That's OK (none / 0) (#82)
    by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:56:42 PM EST
    If he won, he won.  

    And if he's the Dem candidate in spite of it, so be it.

    and if we lose the Fall because of it, so be it.

    I still feel very good that Hillary really fought it well in NC, was on target, and if she can't hit 60% of the "white" vote, so be it.

    She probably should get out.

    Overall?  I'll still always think it was "stolen."  But that's a bigger issue.

    Finally, we hit these two primaries on equal footing.

    If she lost this badly, then she lost.

    If she wins slim in Indiana and loses this big in NC?

    Won't work.

    She needs to end it.

    [ Parent ]

    I thought this might happen - Support higher in AA (none / 0) (#101)
    by jawbone on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:59:42 PM EST
    community as Obama seen to be under attack about Wright.

    Now, does this follow through to IN?

    Since she gets only singled digit votes from blacks in both states, mayhap.

    [ Parent ]

    I predict (5.00 / 1) (#83)
    by ajain on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:56:49 PM EST
    She will drop out by the end of the week, if the exit polls bear out.

    I Predict You Are Wrong. (5.00 / 2) (#90)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:58:37 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Lets hope (none / 0) (#116)
    by ajain on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:03:14 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Not a chance. She was never (5.00 / 1) (#122)
    by vicsan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:04:50 PM EST
    expected to win NC (except by me). However, Obama WAS suppose to win his neighboring state of Indiana. I think he should drop out. He can't win in November. Democrats will not win NC in November either. AA will support him no matter what, obviously, but he cannot win with that group alone. He needs to drop out by the end of the week.

    [ Parent ]
    HA! (none / 0) (#148)
    by sickofhypocrisy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:11:27 PM EST
    Maybe in a perfect world.

    Let's face it, he's going to get it.  The media has already decided it.  They could find him in the back seat of his limo mutilating puppies and they'd forgive him for it.  In fact, they'd find a way to blame Hillary for it.  

    This just sucks.

    [ Parent ]

    I like your style. 8^) n/t (none / 0) (#149)
    by misspeach2008 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:11:32 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Not a chance. She was never (none / 0) (#182)
    by vicsan on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:15:55 PM EST
    expected to win NC (except by me). However, Obama WAS suppose to win his neighboring state of Indiana. I think he should drop out. He can't win in November. Democrats will not win NC in November either. AA will support him no matter what, obviously, but he cannot win with that group alone. He needs to drop out by the end of the week.

    [ Parent ]
    CNN - Brazille throws half the party under the bus (5.00 / 3) (#143)
    by joanneleon on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:09:46 PM EST
    while discussing the results, Donna Brazille just said that the party has changed, is younger and more urban, and she basically said that the white working class voter is not that important anymore.

    Brilliant.  Just brilliant.

    That sure does make me hopeful about jobs in this country, outsourcing, etc.

    My god.. (5.00 / 2) (#158)
    by gmo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:13:04 PM EST
    ...she is an exceptionally stupid woman.  

    [ Parent ]
    You have to re-evaluate Gore. (none / 0) (#177)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:15:14 PM EST
    Brazille, Lieberman...a pox.

    [ Parent ]
    Well well well. (none / 0) (#165)
    by Salo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:13:39 PM EST
    tipping her cards I see.

    [ Parent ]
    I think (none / 0) (#184)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:16:09 PM EST
    she should run on that.  Spread that news far and wide, Donna.

    [ Parent ]
    OMG what a fool. (none / 0) (#186)
    by RalphB on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:16:49 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Brazille is a disgrace (none / 0) (#189)
    by stefystef on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:17:50 PM EST
    Please, Hillary, keep going to KY and WV and let's see what Donna's attitude will be about voters in those states.

    The Dems are good at shooting themselves in their foot.  I feel that time is coming if Obama is the nominee.

    [ Parent ]

    Heh (5.00 / 1) (#163)
    by Steve M on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:13:32 PM EST
    Here's an interesting one.  In NC, 6% of the voters said, depressingly, that race was "the most important" factor in their vote.  Those voters went 64-34 for Obama.

    Likewise, 6% of the voters said gender was "the most important" factor in their vote.  Those voters went for Obama by an overwhelming 67-28 margin.

    In other words, the number of people who voted for Clinton solely because she's a woman is vastly outweighed by the number of people who voted for Obama solely because he's a man.

    Bagalia...Yeah (5.00 / 1) (#197)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:41:55 PM EST
    "we cannot win with eggheads and AAs"

    CNN calling out Brazille (5.00 / 1) (#198)
    by catfish on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:46:27 PM EST
    Campbell Brown saying "you've been on our panels for months as an undecided voter. But it sounds very much like you are decided." Brazille: I'm undeclared, not undecided.

    The irony is that Obama (5.00 / 1) (#205)
    by Danbury on Tue May 06, 2008 at 07:59:52 PM EST
     never wanted to be the "black candidate" and his campaign used that bogus charge of race baiting against the Clintons in order to inject race into the campaign, yet here we are: without the black vote, Obama wouldn't be in the contest.

    But supposedly to say that is race baiting!

    What an ironic twist to this whole sorry saga.

    Popular vote metric (none / 0) (#9)