How Puerto Rico Awards Its Delegates

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Thu May 29, 2008 at 01:05:16 PM EST
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According to CQ:

According to its delegate selection plan, Puerto Rico has 63 delegates, of which 55 are “pledged” to back a candidate and eight are unpledged “superdelegates.” . . . Of the 55 pledged delegates, 36 are district-level delegates that are distributed among eight senatorial districts based on population. . . . [M]ost of the pledged delegates [in Puerto Rico] are allocated to districts on the basis of population.

MORE . . .

Each of the eight senatorial districts in Puerto Rico is assigned four to six delegates. . . . [D]elegates will be awarded proportionally to Clinton and Obama based on the primary vote; a candidate needs 15 percent of the vote to qualify for delegates. A six-delegate senatorial district, for example, would produce a 3-3 tie between Clinton and Obama if the winner takes less than 58.3 percent of the vote. A 4-2 delegate split would ensue if the winner takes between 58.3 percent of the vote and 75 percent of the vote.

The other 19 pledged delegates at stake include 12 “at large” delegates and seven party leaders and elected officials (known in the Democratic vernacular as PLEOs.) They will be distributed to Obama and Clinton based on how they do in the island-wide vote.

Later I will try and guess at how the 8 districts will split. I'll add it to this post when I get a chance.

By Big Tent Democrat

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How Puerto Rico Awards Its Delegates | 21 comments (21 topical)

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Oh Lordy... (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by madamab on Thu May 29, 2008 at 01:43:42 PM EST

I hope we do the all-popular-vote thing next time.

My haid hurts with all teh maths. ;-)

I'm confused (none / 0) (#1)
by andgarden on Thu May 29, 2008 at 01:12:36 PM EST

Why do different Senate districts have different numbers of delegates? CQ says it's done by population, but shouldn't the population of the districts be roughly equal (per the census)?

ohter states (none / 0) (#5)
by manish on Thu May 29, 2008 at 01:26:10 PM EST

In California, the CDs all have the same population, but the delegates per CD are based on how many Democrats live in that district (I think its based on how many voted for the Democrat in the previous Congressional election, but I'm not positive). I presume that PR uses something similar.

[ Parent ]

: It is true that in other states (none / 0) (#6)
by andgarden on Thu May 29, 2008 at 01:29:01 PM EST

Congressional, State House, and Senate seats are drawn to have equal populations. But they are given more or fewer delegates based on past Democratic strength. There is no such past criterion to be had in PR, so I'm wondering if the senate districts are equally populated.

[ Parent ]

Not really (none / 0) (#9)
by Big Tent Democrat on Thu May 29, 2008 at 01:51:40 PM EST

they are roughly proportional buuut San Juan will have a higher population.

I assume San Juan is a 6 delegates district and I expect Clinton will get a 4-2 there.

Bayamon is probably a 5 so Clinton will win that one 3-2.

Ponce is probably a 3-2, Obama may win there imo.

I expect Clinton to win every other district, but by how much? And are there other 5 delegate districts?

Guayama, Humacao and Arecibo have to be no more than 4 delegate districts and Clinton would have to win 58.3% in those to gain delegates. Let's say she does in 1 of 3. so that means 2 2-2 splits and one 3-1 split for a 7-5 Clinton lead in those districts.

That leaves Carolina and Mayaguez. Carolina will probably be a 2-2 split but I suspect Clinton can get 58.3% in Mayaguez for a 3-1.

Adding that up gives me 21-15 for Clinton at the district delegate count. If Clinton wins 60-40 in the Island overall that would gain her a 7-5 win in the at large and a 4-3 win among the PLEOs (to get a 5-2 win, I think she needs 62.5 or more.)

So I predict 32-23 for Clinton with a possible 33/4-22/1 win.

[ Parent ]

Interesting (none / 0) (#11)
by andgarden on Thu May 29, 2008 at 01:55:47 PM EST

Is PR not covered by the various court decisions that require legislative districts to be exactly or almost exactly equal in population? If it is, I can't see why there would need to be a difference in delegates.

[ Parent ]

Not far off from what I was thinking... (none / 0) (#15)
by mike in dc on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:14:30 PM EST

...around 31-24. Overall, not great but not bad for Obama, considering he was blown out 2-1 in the Latino vote earlier in the primaries.

His new ad there ain't half bad either.

If he wins 16-15 on Tuesday, that gives him a total of at least 37 more delegates. I expect he'll get enough supers before Tuesday so he can crest 2026, and then it's just a matter of what the RBC decides and what the remaining SDs do.

A convention fight means no Unity Ticket. It also means a possible return of GOP control over the Senate, House and White House.

I think we need a satisfactory resolution of FL and MI no later than the CC meeting in late June.

And then the person who does not have the "magic number" of delegates needs to concede immediately, for the good of the party and the good of the nominee.

[ Parent ]

Crowning Obama as nominee (none / 0) (#16)
by cymro on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:40:40 PM EST

... when he can't defeat McCain in the GE will NOT be "for the good of the party".

[ Parent ]

You don't get it... (none / 0) (#17)
by mike in dc on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:09:58 PM EST

...even if your argument were on point, it would be impossible now for Clinton to defeat McCain in GE as well, because of the Obama voter backlash that would/will result from upending expectations at this point. And continuing the infighting will hurt us badly down ticket in November. We need a unified party for the fall. That's actually more important than who's on the top of the ticket. The longer this goes on the more it hurts the prospect of both the party and the presidential nominee in November.

BTD, I am starting to come around on the Unity Ticket idea. But I still think it should be Obama's choice alone, not one perceived as imposed upon him. And I think the offer should not be extended if this is dragged out too far past June 3rd.

[ Parent ]

It does not matter (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by Mrwirez on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:36:59 PM EST

the damage is done, I know I will not be voting for Barack Obama, along with scores of other people I know.

[ Parent ]

Meh... (none / 0) (#19)
by mike in dc on Thu May 29, 2008 at 03:52:08 PM EST

...wait until the smoke has cleared, the dust has settled, and the candidates have reconciled before making up your mind.

It's kinda like a heated fight with your significant other. A lot of stuff gets said and done, people take time to cool off, process and make nice, and then things are back on track.

[ Parent ]

: You have NO Clue (none / 0) (#21)
by Mrwirez on Thu May 29, 2008 at 08:00:26 PM EST

I won't participate.... He ain't the one. If Obama had this wrapped up since New Hampshire, I still would not vote for him. He is UNqualified to be president, even less than Bush and look what has happened.

[ Parent ]

I think districst are geographical (none / 0) (#2)
by Prabhata on Thu May 29, 2008 at 01:17:58 PM EST

and the delegates are based on the population of those districts.

PR isn't required to draw (none / 0) (#3)
by andgarden on Thu May 29, 2008 at 01:22:06 PM EST

equal population Senate districts? Interesting.

[ Parent ]

Senate? (none / 0) (#12)
by Socraticsilence on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:05:09 PM EST

Does PR have the "non-voting" House and Senate members ala DC?

[ Parent ]

: Territorial Senate (none / 0) (#14)
by andgarden on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:10:18 PM EST

RTFM. :-p

[ Parent ]
: PR has one non-voting Resident Commissioner in the (none / 0) (#20)
by TomLincoln on Thu May 29, 2008 at 04:55:54 PM EST

House of Representatives. I believe he gets to vote when the vote will not change the result.

[ Parent ]

I bow to the will of the districting (none / 0) (#4)
by MarkL on Thu May 29, 2008 at 01:25:56 PM EST

committee!!

Any way you cut it, I feel certain Hillary will (none / 0) (#7)
by PssttCmere08 on Thu May 29, 2008 at 01:36:08 PM EST

win the majority of the delegates...GO HILLARY!!

How is it... (none / 0) (#10)
by fiver5 on Thu May 29, 2008 at 01:54:04 PM EST

that Puerto Rico has a say in primary elections but no no votes in the general?

: The DNC (none / 0) (#13)
by Socraticsilence on Thu May 29, 2008 at 02:06:54 PM EST

We as a party choose to give PR power in the primaries, the Island itslef has shot down statehood and a general election share every time its come to a vote.

[ Parent ]