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The Moral Imperative For Super Delegates: The Will Of the People

It is my expectation that at the end of this process, Barack Obama will have had more voters go to primaries and caucuses expressing support for him than Hillary Clinton. In short, I believe Barack Obama will win the popular vote and thus his likely nomination will reflect the will of the people.

I imagine the above paragraph will be viewed as a strange opening graf to defend Hillary Clinton's right, indeed, duty, to fight to see that all the votes are counted. But there it is. I believe the Democratic nominee should be the choice of the People (as defined by the Democratic Party, the electorate eligible to vote for our Democratic nominee in the nominating contests). As Jeralyn's post below conclusively demonstrates, there is virtually no moral imperative in terms of the Will of The People attached to the pledged delegate count. Not only is it fundamentally flawed and undemocratic, the pledged delegate count has no rules based mandate either. So when Barack Obama trumpets his so called winning of a majority of the pledged delegates (excluding Florida and Michigan), it is an entirely trumped up metric, as Jeff Toobin of CNN pointed out. As for the popular vote, even opponents of Hillary Clinton, as Greg Sargent points out, like Hendrik Hertzberg are forced to concede the moral weight of the popular vote:

[T]he popular vote, however juridically meaningless, carries immense moral and political weight with Democrats, for whom the 2000 travesty is a station of the cross and vote-counting a kind of sacrament. The superdelegates understand this. That’s why it has been clear all along that if one of the candidates is able to claim an indisputable majority of actual flesh-and-blood Democrats it will be difficult to deny him—or her—the nomination.

I agree with Hertzberg on that. But of course, Hillary can not be allowed to escape unscathed, even when she has a point. Thus Hertzberg, sadly, feels compelled to treat a fight to COUNT the votes as an evil act:

In an eerie echo of the “Brooks Brothers riot” depicted in the HBO movie, when shouting Bush operatives and Republican congressional staffers who had been dispatched to Florida managed to shut down the Miami-Dade County recount, CNN reported on Thursday that Clinton supporters “are planning to swarm the capital in a little over a week to pressure Democratic Party leaders as they gather to decide the fate of the Florida and Michigan delegations.” In 2000, the candidate most willing to deploy principles and trash them, according to the tactical needs of the moment, was awarded the prize. In 2008, maybe not.

Hertzberg equates a protest to COUNT the vote with a Republican operation to STOP THE COUNT of votes. But this is the landscape we occupy now. Up is down. Paul Krugman is evil and deranged. Andrew Sullivan is wise and progressive. Counting votes is bad. Not counting them is good.

Of course, Hertzberg's article is an attempt to deflate a point that he knows is powerful - count the votes. The value of the popular vote. And in order to do this, he seems intent on delegitimizing Clinton's perfectly honorable efforts to have the votes counted. And by delegitimizing the popular vote total in this contest, Hertzberg is implicitly arguing that the moral imperative for super delegates is to follow the pledged delegate leader, even though it is, in Hertzberg's words, "juridically meaningless." And we also know it is morally meaningless as well because the pledged delegate selection process is fundamentally flawed and undemocratic. It does not provide the imprimatur of the Will of the People.

Indeed, these glaring flaws have been, sadly, studiously avoided by the Media and major blogging figures. None have examined the pledged delegate system and how it is Obama came to hold a lead under that system. A look at the system leads to the inexorable conclusion that it is utterly undemocratic and flawed.

Both in ways intentional and unintentional, votes are diluted and over represented. And in many cases in contradictory ways. In Nevada and Iowa, rural voters are given extra weight, in Texas, urban voters given extra weight.

And just by awarding delegates by Congressional district, the DNC has chosen to dilute votes - 2-2 districts versus 3-2 districts is the most obvious example. A candidate can win 61% of the vote in a 2-2 district and get a split of the delegates while another candidate could get 50.1% of the vote in a 3-2 district and get a 3-2 split of the vote.

Consider also the absurdity of Texas' dual primary and caucus system which proved just how disenfranchising the pledged delegate selection system is. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by over 100,000 votes. Then a second contest was organized, from a smaller subset of the larger electorate which voted in the primary, to participate in a caucus. Obama won the undemocratic, voter excluding contest. Clinton won the democratic, voter inclusive one. Obama lost Texas according to the will of the People but got the most delegates. Thus, the DNC sanctioned voter dilution. There is not other word for it. If this system were submitted to the Justice Department's Civil Rights Division, it would be laughed at and thrown out on its ear. And yet this is not worthy of even a mention from Hendrick Hertzberg, or indeed, anyone at all in the Media.

Leaving all that aside, the question is what should the Super Delegates do if there is not clear expression of the Will of The People? In my view, vote their conscience. Consider whatever legitimate factors they deem relevant. Including, electability in November.

And it goes to this final point. while it is my belief that the Super Delegates will now go for Barack Obama no matter what, in fact Obama has NOT clinched the nomination. By any rules based metric. He has not achieved 2026 delegates nor 2210.

But Hillary Clinton is treated as delusional, evil even, for staying in the race and making her case. To me that is the ultimate grotesqueness of all of this. That someone who is playing by the rules and fighting for her supporters and views is treated as a scourge. All because they want the votes counted.

Yes there was an earlier episode when something like this occurred. In 2000. And the person who suffered this type of abuse was named Al Gore. History repeats itself.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only.

Comments now closed.

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  • Display: Sort:
    BTD, a Texan in another (5.00 / 3) (#1)
    by MarkL on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:10:00 PM EST
    thread opined that Hillary will get the majority of TX delegates in the end. As you know, the final convention hasn't been held yet. This person thinks the old hands who support Hillary will crush the newbie Obama supporters.
    That would be sweet revenge, especially after NV.

    One should also add ... (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by Robot Porter on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:17:51 PM EST
    again that all delegate counts at this point are just projections.  Hence, all the conflicting numbers.

    [ Parent ]
    And, this won't be over until the convention.... (5.00 / 4) (#61)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:48:17 PM EST
    SD's need to sit back and stfu until that day.

    [ Parent ]
    I said that (5.00 / 7) (#25)
    by txpolitico67 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:26:37 PM EST
    and I had been super active in local and state politics here since the days of Ann Richards 1990.  Tejano Democrats, which is more of a south TX phenomenon (not many Tejano Dems in the DFW/north part of TX), are full of party stalwarts who will be going to the mat for Hillary.

    Figure this:  Robbstown, TX,  a tiny town outside of Corpus Christi had Johnny Canales emcee an event and almost 9000 people showed up.  Fort Worth barely had that when Hillary came (and we are approaching 750K in population here).

    From El Paso to Brownsville is HUGE Clinton country.  And those people are the party elders...figuratively and literally.  Make no mistake that the convention will be held more on their terms.  I've seen it way too many times.

    Last convention the GLBT delegation and the Tejano Dems clashed big time.  Guess who won?  The Black Caucuses were a one big brou-ha-ha.  Guess who had to salvage that?  My drinking buddy and Hillary superdelegate Bob Slagle.

    The Hillary people will be brokering this convention.  Indeed the Obama supporters will try to run the board.  Austin may make a dent but other than that, IT AIN'T GUNNA HAPPEN.

    [ Parent ]

    What's the upper threshhold for the (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by MarkL on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:34:01 PM EST
    margin she can get in the end---any idea?

    [ Parent ]
    Not sure (5.00 / 2) (#108)
    by txpolitico67 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:04:09 PM EST
    I used to get a lot of inside track stuff but a lot of people know that I have rejected my Dem status so I have been taken off of a lot of distribution lists.  

    I need to make a few calls and see what's it looking like out there with respect to her margins.  Again, the people who are going to state to caucus will have one helluva time.  The Obama supporters will be there in droves, but the party elders will make them adhere to rules and procedures that will baffle them and probably make them leave the floor altogether.

    Texas politics are not for the faint of heart.  The Obama supporters may scream and shout, but the old cats will not only not recognize them, they will be removed.  It's just that simple.


    [ Parent ]

    If things turn out as you predict, I may (5.00 / 1) (#120)
    by MarkL on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:07:51 PM EST
    return to Orange Hell to post a diary.

    [ Parent ]
    Chicago politics (none / 0) (#173)
    by txpolitico67 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:25:02 PM EST
    vs. Texas politics.

    LBJ and Bush 41 and Bush 43.

    I don't need to say anything more.  And no I am not proud of that.  Just sayin'....

    [ Parent ]

    lobby superdelegates (5.00 / 2) (#38)
    by Josey on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:34:38 PM EST
    www.lobbydelegates.com

    [ Parent ]
    How much concern... (5.00 / 2) (#43)
    by p lukasiak on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:39:28 PM EST
    How much concern is there among Obama's Texas supporters that if the caucus delegates don't reflect the will of the voters, the massive fraud and intimidation that occurred during the caucuses will be used as grounds to challenge all the caucus delegates in the credentials committee? Are the Texas Obots "damn the topedos, full speed ahead" types... or do they realize how precarious their positions are?

    [ Parent ]
    I would welcome that kind of challenge (5.00 / 2) (#50)
    by MarkL on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:43:52 PM EST
    from the Obama bots----as long as actual checking of the signature lists, etc. took place.
    A lot of Hillary supporters think that Obama cheated in the caucuses. Texas would be a good place to test that hypothesis, if the O-bots are up for it.
    And if it's not true, all the better for Obama's legitimacy.

    [ Parent ]
    There was a lot (5.00 / 4) (#74)
    by txpolitico67 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:54:21 PM EST
    of unethical and illegal shenanigans took place.  What drove me to TL back in March was the fact that my mother and I had to enlist the help of Voter Protection from the Hillary Clinton campaign and the Tarrant count Democratic Party Chairman Art Brender.  Obama people were electioneering INSIDE the polling places and within the boundaries they were not SUPPOSED to be in.

    Personally I was passing out pushcards on caucusing for the Hillary campaign and was called a host of racial and gay epithets by Obama supporters.  My precinct was combined with another precinct that had a higher ratio of AA's, and we were overwhelmed and treated like dirt.

    The caucuses were supremely out of control.  The local party and the elections board did not properly train on how to run the caucuses. "Team" captains, rather caucus captains, from the respective campaigns didn't run the caucuses right either.  Everytime I tried to interject on correct procedure I was yelled down by Obama supporters.  I have been caucusing in TX since I was 23 yrs old and I am 40 now.  I was embarrassed on how supposedly Democrats were acting towards one another.

    There is a youtube video of an Obama supporter who was making calls confusing voters as to who they were caucusing for. Unfortunately they called a Hillary supporter and campaign volunteer and she captured their illegal activities on video for the whole world to see.

    To say that Obama's people were breaking rules and election laws on that fateful March 4th day, would be an understatement.

    [ Parent ]

    yes, I remember your posts from the time. (5.00 / 1) (#82)
    by MarkL on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:56:54 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Oddly enough (5.00 / 1) (#180)
    by janarchy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:28:41 PM EST
    someone on my Livejournal list (well, who WAS, I've since deleted her) said she was a O. delegate for South Texas and was going on and on about all the abuse she'd suffered as an Obama supporter at the hands of the evil Hillary supporters. This was followed by yet another Testament of Faith in the Great Inspiring Messiah -- I did not know how to refute her claims but I knew there were a lot of problems for the Clinton supporters in TX at the caucuses just as I know from a friend in the Seattle area how bad things were in WA (and that friend is for Kuscinich -- she said the Obama people were just impossible to everyone)

    [ Parent ]
    I recall from news reports at the time (5.00 / 0) (#206)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:37:13 PM EST
    that the rules for the TX caucuses were that you had to be there on time and stay throughout the entire process and that you had to physically sign in on a sheet of paper INSIDE the caucus.  The news reports at the time said there were some Obama caucus leaders (don't know the term to use) that were planning to allow caucus goers to sign the sheets ahead of time so that they didn't have to actually get inside and stay for the whole process.  I don't know if that ended up being one of the problems or not.  But, those sign-in sheets were not supposed to be available to anyone PRIOR to the start of the caucus just to avoid this kind of issue.  And supposedly there were Obama caucus leaders who had the sheets well ahead of time.

    [ Parent ]
    In fact (5.00 / 3) (#78)
    by nell on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:55:25 PM EST
    I believe Hillary's team filed the thousands of compaints they had about the TX with the state Dem party and asked them to investigate but the campaign was silenced and told not to talk about this. I believe I read from a diary at MyDD that the DNC head honchos were made aware of all of the problems that ensued and the incredible illegality of the whole process, but they didn't care to do anything about it. Obama cheats and all is fine and well, and if she tries to call him on it she is a horrible Dem splitting evil monger.

    Ridiculous.

    [ Parent ]

    That would be sweet (5.00 / 2) (#128)
    by cmugirl on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:10:09 PM EST
    If the presumptuous nominee goes around and is treated as such, but then when all the state parties where there were caucuses meet for the final time and vote - and Hillary ends up picking up delegates.

    Is the media going to ignore that??

    [ Parent ]

    You know the deal (5.00 / 3) (#144)
    by Steve M on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:14:29 PM EST
    When Obama gets extra delegates out of the caucus process, it's a matter of his skill at working within the rules laid out for both sides.  When Hillary gets extra delegates through the same process, she's stealing votes.

    [ Parent ]
    And it is looking (none / 0) (#222)
    by Abdul Abulbul Amir on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:41:57 PM EST
    And it is looking as though BHO os having a bit of a problem with reality.

    Obama also spoke about his uncle, who was part of the American brigade that helped to liberate Auschwitz.

    Sorry, Auschwitz is in Poland.  No American brigade entered Poland in WWII.

    CBS News Link

    [ Parent ]

    Even more powerful argument... (5.00 / 4) (#2)
    by gmo on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:12:49 PM EST
    ....after the punch in the gut I got watching Recount this weekend on HBO.

    After noting how arbitrary the entire presidential election turned out to be in 2000, what a nauseating game of politics that the simple, fundamental basis of democracy became (COUNT EVERY VOTE),  is there truly any question in this nominating process that at minimum, the vote of every individual should be counted and heard, and at least considered with equal weight and merit in the decision-making process of the superdelegates?

    Tx alone should be part of a (5.00 / 1) (#12)
    by zfran on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:19:12 PM EST
    lawsuit for various reasons, but let's not make too many waves! If BTD, an avid Democrat first supporter, says above that in essence the system is greatly flawed, going back to 2000 and probably farther, then in the end, we again, have missed a great opportunity (imo)to move this nation forward. Once again, we take a very long step back.  

    [ Parent ]
    Why not have a lawsuit, if it uncovers (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by MarkL on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:20:38 PM EST
    widespread fraud and double-voting (as alleged).

    [ Parent ]
    But then the question becomes, (none / 0) (#23)
    by zfran on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:25:49 PM EST
    is the judge a dem or a repub. Unfortunately and sadly, it's not about the voter...it's about the party and we "who mush always follow and never question".

    [ Parent ]
    IMO that is not a good reason to not file a (none / 0) (#92)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:00:34 PM EST
    lawsuit...that point could be argued into oblivion.  You have to trust that the judge will be objective.

    [ Parent ]
    super delagates (none / 0) (#228)
    by tedsim on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:50:48 PM EST
    If the democratic party does not do right by hillary, I believe millions will leave the party,I know I will.

    [ Parent ]
    I can only pray that the people will prevail (5.00 / 3) (#3)
    by athyrio on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:13:53 PM EST
    and the DNC will come to their senses, (I know, I am an eternal optimist.....) If anyone in this universe has the ability to turn this around Hillary does, and I am praying daily for that to happen....So far she has withstood the most amazing assault on her candidacy I have ever witnessed just for daring to run against the candidate that the "powers that be" have chosen....If the democratic party cannot even promote democracy, where are we going as a nation??

    I think there's actually plenty of (5.00 / 2) (#11)
    by MarkL on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:18:54 PM EST
    time for Hillary, if she stays in until August.
    Obama's brand name keeps going down, down down.
    I expect him to be decisively losing to McCain by the end of June.

    [ Parent ]
    Who's to blame? (1.00 / 9) (#47)
    by Darthnole on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:42:36 PM EST
    Obama's brand name is going down because Hillary is bringing it down with her attacks.  This shows just how much she cares about herself and not the good of the party...let alone the country!!!

    [ Parent ]
    You think Hillary is winning people over? (5.00 / 3) (#56)
    by MarkL on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:45:31 PM EST
    That's one explanation. Then there are Obama's own missteps, and McCain's attacks.


    [ Parent ]
    I swear to God (5.00 / 5) (#58)
    by Steve M on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:46:17 PM EST
    I thought this comment was a pretty decent piece of snark.  That's what I honestly thought.

    [ Parent ]
    Poor rational Steve M. (5.00 / 2) (#64)
    by madamab on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:48:39 PM EST
    You haven't had enough Kool-Aid today! ;-)

    [ Parent ]
    Ridiculous huh? (5.00 / 4) (#103)
    by RalphB on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:03:41 PM EST
    The funniest thing I've read in a long time was last night here where someone was arguing that Obama would win because of his height.  Or his American Idol good looks, it was positively bizarre.


    [ Parent ]
    There was a study (none / 0) (#163)
    by BackFromOhio on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:21:10 PM EST
    During the 2004 campaign season, one of the networks interviewed a fellow (don't recall name - sorry) who claimed to have done a study showing in the overwhelming number of cases that the taller candidate wins the presidency.  But, the Bush win over the much taller Kerry presents quite the exception.

    [ Parent ]
    brand name (5.00 / 2) (#66)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:49:28 PM EST
    Obama's brand name is going down because of Rev Wrigt and bittergate.  These are two issues he cause himself.

    The media and Obama's most ardent leftie supporters may think that he "fixed" the Rev Wright issue.  But, that's not the case in middle America and the working class.

    He's not doing himself any favors with his position on FL and MI either.

    [ Parent ]

    A bit OT - not an attack on you, (5.00 / 6) (#80)
    by madamab on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:56:08 PM EST
    but I wish people would not characterize Obama's supporters as lefties.

    I don't see race-baiting, sexism, and wanting to kick the working class out of the Democratic Party as leftie values.

    Hence, my intense disagreement with (but respect for) most of BTD's posts about Unity.

    Back on topic - I don't agree at all that more people have voted for Barack Obama than Hillary Clinton. Certainly giving Obama all the uncommitted votes in MI will not fly. It's simply ludicrous.

    After June 3 I expect that HRC will be the clear winner of the popular vote.

    [ Parent ]

    why that b!tch! (5.00 / 4) (#95)
    by RalphB on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:00:59 PM EST
    Hey wait a darned minute.  She is winning people over.  Then let's nominate her so we can win.  Revolutionary idea  eh.


    [ Parent ]
    To put it mildly....you are full of it. You must (5.00 / 1) (#107)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:04:09 PM EST
    have read Bob Herbert this morning, who has turned into nothing more than a talking obamabot.
    Hillary has run a clean campaign and not used harsh tones....obama not so much.  Go back and trace the source of the nastiness...it is talking heads and supposed journalists....and please remove your head from that dark space where the sun never shines.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes because (5.00 / 2) (#114)
    by txpolitico67 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:05:47 PM EST
    someone fighting for what they believe is right a character flaw in your world's view.

    Sounds pretty defeatist to me.  How sad.

    [ Parent ]

    Oh yes (5.00 / 4) (#137)
    by Nadai on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:12:31 PM EST
    How dare Hillary try to win.  Doesn't she realize that will cause Obama to lose?  That unmitigated b!tch.

    [ Parent ]
    nothing is EVER (5.00 / 4) (#175)
    by txpolitico67 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:26:15 PM EST
    Obama's fault. EVER.

    [ Parent ]
    If I Remeber Correctly.... (1.33 / 6) (#44)
    by Darthnole on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:40:10 PM EST
    Wasn't it Hillary that was supposed to win the Democratic Nomination HANDS-DOWN?  Wasn't this supposed to be finished after Super Tuesday?  Wasn't it the Republicans that were supposed to be fighting it out to the convention?

    To say that the "powers that be" have choosen Obama is ludicrious.  Well only if you forget that these same "powers that be" were choosing Hillary before the Primary season began.  It seems as though this point is gravely mis-represented.  Hillary had a huge lead throughout the country before the contest began, and Obama has come back Nationally to overcome her (even if by only a small margin).  With lack of national name recognition none-the-less!!

    I support neither canidate, but give credit where credit is due.  Obama has run a remarkable campaign, and for him to even come close to the same number of votes that Hillary received is an accomplishmnet in and of itself.

    [ Parent ]

    The only thing "remarkable" about (5.00 / 4) (#59)
    by zfran on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:46:22 PM EST
    Obama's campaign has been to ignore the people unless they fit into his playbook. That is not change, nor, imo, a candidate of the people.

    [ Parent ]
    The campaign that ignores the crucial (5.00 / 3) (#88)
    by MarkL on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:59:51 PM EST
    swing states is Obama's.

    [ Parent ]
    I hope that your demographic (5.00 / 1) (#115)
    by zfran on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:06:02 PM EST
    meets the requirement of the dems. Hillary includes all demographics. To stand in the way of FL/MI because it is an incovenient truth for him, who is not counting the votes? Is Obama "flying" over these two states?

    [ Parent ]
    bingo! (none / 0) (#151)
    by kimsaw on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:16:05 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Remarkable (5.00 / 2) (#116)
    by txpolitico67 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:06:58 PM EST
    is Bush Gore 2000 is your metric, then yes.  Remarkable that they are using Rovian/republican methods and the DNC is happily playing along with the compliant press.

    Care to take another stab at this?

    [ Parent ]

    Btw, folks, Darthnole boasts (3.66 / 3) (#100)
    by Cream City on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:01:56 PM EST
    elsewhere on the 'Net that he's proud to be a "MyFox" user -- a Faux Nooz fan from 'way back, before he became part of the OFB.

    I wonder if that tells us more about where Obama is finding his support, huh?  Oh, the books that will be written about this campaign when historians can get access to Rove's files.  If ever.

    [ Parent ]

    I wonder what's REALLY in (5.00 / 1) (#111)
    by madamab on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:04:24 PM EST
    those 5 million missing RNC emails?

    [ Parent ]
    Let's Correct the Misconception.... (none / 0) (#232)
    by Darthnole on Tue May 27, 2008 at 03:01:19 PM EST
    I hope that you can understand this.... I am not an Obama supporter!  He will not get my vote in November (nor will Hillary if somehow she wins).  At this point I still do not support McCain either.  I am one who believes in personal liberties and States Rights.  I believe that there is a purpose for the Federal Government, but believe that it's current role is simply too big.

    What gets me, throughout these political blogs, is the mass amounts of people that simply want to ignore the reality of the situation:

    1.  You start an election by setting up the rules for the election of delegates to the convention
    2.  All the canidates in the election agree to and sign pledges to honor the rules that are in place.
    3.  The people vote
    4.  The winner is determined

    Instead, when the election became in doubt for Hillary she decided that the delegations in FL and MI were important to make her case to the SD's.  Now she wants them included.  She didn't care on September 1, 2007 when she signed her pledge to exclude the delegates, but now she does!??!?

    This shows me that here we have another Political Entity that shifts their beliefs to suit their benefit.  Is this the character you're looking for in your next President?  It's not mine!

    [ Parent ]

    Of course you're right, BTD ... (5.00 / 2) (#4)
    by Robot Porter on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:14:42 PM EST
    but it won't be as simple as that.

    Because if, contrary to your projections, Hillary does lead in the popular vote at the end of this process, Obama and company will claim she really doesn't.

    They just won't accept the count.

    Watch.

    Even if that count... (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by gmo on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:28:05 PM EST
    ...goes beyond any shadow of a doubt by several metrics? (e.g. not counting MI/FL, etc).  You mean they'll spin it because "Puerto Rico doesn't matter?"   Seems like a bad idea to me.

    [ Parent ]
    Yup ... (5.00 / 2) (#34)
    by Robot Porter on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:32:18 PM EST
    just watch them.

    And they will continually buttress this with the "but only the delegates really matter" argument.

    It's not gonna be pretty.

    [ Parent ]

    Yup... (1.00 / 5) (#105)
    by Darthnole on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:04:03 PM EST
    Delegates ARE the only thing that matters!!!

    DID YOU READ THE RULES???

    [ Parent ]

    I probably should have said ... (none / 0) (#148)
    by Robot Porter on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:15:29 PM EST
    "elected delegates" ....

    Not sure it would have altered your response.

    But here's hoping.

    [ Parent ]

    delegates matter (none / 0) (#168)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:22:33 PM EST
    yes, delegates (not PLEDGED delegates) are the only thing that matters.  And Super Delegates have NO RULES as to what criteria they may use to make their decision.  There is no rule that says super delegates can't look to the popular vote to make their decision.

    there was a natinal poll of dems a few weeks back.  And a clear majority at tat time said they thought the super delegates should give the nomination to the candidate that won the popular vote.

    [ Parent ]

    I'll bet you my last dollar (none / 0) (#209)
    by Warren Terrer on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:39:12 PM EST
    you've never read the rules, but that you read dailykos regularly.

    [ Parent ]
    Heh (5.00 / 2) (#5)
    by Steve M on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:14:56 PM EST
    It's going to be interesting watching the COUNT THE VOTES protest juxtaposed with the ENFORCE TEH ROOLZ protest.

    They should start quoting James Baker (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by andgarden on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:17:51 PM EST
    and Katherine Harris.

    [ Parent ]
    I thought they were (5.00 / 2) (#19)
    by Robot Porter on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:22:36 PM EST
    BTW, I watched RECOUNT today.  Brilliant stuff.

    Wish the Gore campaign had as good a visual to explain how hanging and dimpled chads occur.  The one the makers of this film created made it crystal clear.

    The film really choked me up.

    What a different world we'd live in today had Al Gore been President for the last eight years.

    [ Parent ]

    The fallacy is (none / 0) (#182)
    by BackFromOhio on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:29:49 PM EST
    that the "rules" actually provide for the DNC to seat delegates from states who violate the calendar rules if the states tried to bring themselves into compliance, even if unable to do so, as in the cases here where the Republican majorities in the state legislatures forced earlier primary dates. The basic disagreement, I believe, in the "rules" context, is the punitive interpretation of the rules and reconsideration of that decision. BTD has posted several excellent references to the rules.  

    [ Parent ]
    Excellent. (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by oculus on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:15:52 PM EST


    <broken record> (5.00 / 5) (#7)
    by andgarden on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:17:17 PM EST
    Puerto Rico will determine who leads in the popular vote </broken record>

    andgarden I hope Puerto Rico is a total blowout (5.00 / 3) (#14)
    by athyrio on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:19:49 PM EST
    for Hillary.....

    [ Parent ]
    yeah but I can only conclude from BTD's (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by jes on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:28:38 PM EST
    post that he thinks PR will be much closer than expected. What would she need there to seal the PV. About 150k advantage?

    [ Parent ]
    Ah... but what count (5.00 / 2) (#49)
    by waldenpond on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:43:22 PM EST
    will you use?  I use vote plus FL/MI (giving Obama the undecided no matter how much I think it is wrong) /NB primary/WA (actual) primary.  I use RCP number for the caucus estimates (as an analyst I have problems using estimates but I'll play the game).  Once the final 3 contests are over, I have Clinton (most likely) with the popular vote lead.

    The problem?  My idea of legitimacy is not anyone else's.

    [ Parent ]

    my question (none / 0) (#75)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:54:54 PM EST
    does anyone know the deal with the four caucus states that have not "RELEASED" actual voter totals?  Is it because they don't HAVE they numbers of people who actually attended the caucus?  Or, just because the don't WANT to release the numbers?  This has never been clearly stated anywhere that I have seen.

    I have no problem using the RealClear estimates for those 4 states.

    in WA, you shouldn't use the primary results because that wasn't the official nominating contest, you shuld use the estimate based on the caucus

    [ Parent ]

    Use what you want (none / 0) (#93)
    by waldenpond on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:00:46 PM EST
    I use the actual primary, because it was, you know, an actual primary.  I only use estimates if there are no actual numbers available.  I said this is my count and it is what I consider a basis for legitimacy.

    [ Parent ]
    Got it, "young andgarden." (none / 0) (#13)
    by oculus on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:19:13 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I truly (5.00 / 4) (#10)
    by kenoshaMarge on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:18:26 PM EST
    wish that I still believed that the "Will of the People" meant something to the Democratic Party. I do believe that the will of the people is all that should matter. Even when I don't agree with them and whine about it. :)

    However, given the shenanigans that have gone on in this primary season who really knows how the popular vote would have gone if Senator Clinton's momentum had not been derailed with the exclusion of her win in FL and the votes that were cast for her in MI?  

    Rules cmte meeting (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by TimNCGuy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:20:56 PM EST
    I recall last week on CNN, Donna Brazile stated that the dem party holds its meetings in public and invited Anderson Cooper and CNN to come and  cover the DNC Rules Committee meeting on May 31st.  Has anyone heard whether this will really happen?  Does anyone know whether we will be able to watch the arguments being made to the rules committee by all the players?  It would certainly be interesting television if it actually happens.

    It should be boring (5.00 / 1) (#68)
    by waldenpond on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:49:56 PM EST
    The deals will be made behind the scenes.  The public meeting will merely be an artificial display of trying to sell their decision.

    If you've ever been unfortunate to watch local govt behind the scenes, it's entertaining.  When I worked for our county, I was in a room outside of the chamber.  They council members were bickering over who would vote which way.  They noticed me standing there and were stunned.  I shrugged it off and said 'I work here.'  They went right back to bickering.  They knew the end result, it was just a matter of who could get away with voting yea/nay with their constituencies.  Fun stuff.

    [ Parent ]

    Did they have the option (5.00 / 1) (#109)
    by standingup on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:04:15 PM EST
    of voting "present" too?

    [ Parent ]
    I agree 100% (4.50 / 2) (#129)
    by txpolitico67 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:11:05 PM EST
    what you see on TV will be a big ol' dog and pony show.

    "See Clinton supporters? Everything was transparent! Now move along we have a general election to lose!"

    If Obama wins I am going to get a bumper sticker that's already out here in TX:  "I can't WAIT to vote McCain"

    [ Parent ]

    My co-worker is going (none / 0) (#152)
    by cmugirl on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:16:20 PM EST
    too bad he's for Obama (but he's nice anyway).

    [ Parent ]
    Well said. (5.00 / 3) (#18)
    by janarchy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:21:42 PM EST
    I tried to explain the ways primaries work to a friend of mine in Europe and she just got to the point where she asked me to stop because her head was going to explode from confusion. The saddest thing was that I was just as confused as she was.

    Even sadder is the people I used to think were rational and intelligent who keep telling me we're wrong about all of the above and somehow Obama has magically won everything all by his lonesome and that the will of the people by some overwhelming majority has already annointed him our nominee (and most likely our President...by a landslide yet!)

    How many times did you use ... (5.00 / 4) (#24)
    by Robot Porter on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:26:35 PM EST
    the word "unless"?

    ;)

    I did a similar thing some months back with a friend, and I agree even those of us who understand it ... don't understand it.

    [ Parent ]

    Too many times! (5.00 / 4) (#46)
    by janarchy on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:40:46 PM EST
    I think I used "OR" a lot too. :)

    I completely confused myself and then wondered what kind of drugs the people who devised the systems were on...I suppose true democracy isn't one uniform system (even if it makes sense) but this is really insane.

    There are days when I sort of wish we'd never gotten rid of that monarchy system or at least had gone with a parlimentry procedure instead. ::sigh::

    [ Parent ]

    you misunderstandimate (5.00 / 10) (#21)
    by Turkana on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:25:32 PM EST
    the will of the people is for obama. if the popular vote somehow favors clinton, it is because of the absurd voting system. that the absurd voting system produced obama's pledged delegate lead is irrelevant. because the will of the people is for obama. and any measure that supports this fact is valid. and any measure that doesn't is invalid. or cheating. or an attempted coup.

    Yes, that will hold up until November. (5.00 / 4) (#26)
    by MarkL on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:26:51 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    That's a faith-based argument... (5.00 / 2) (#48)
    by Exeter on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:42:46 PM EST
    ...for a faith-based candidate. The evidence-based argument is that when people actually have voted in a traditional ballot box-- they have voted overwhealmingly for Clinton.

    [ Parent ]
    but this campaign season is all about (5.00 / 5) (#53)
    by Turkana on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:45:16 PM EST
    hope and change and being fired up and ready to go. as is any good revival meeting.

    [ Parent ]
    ...and fainting ; ) (5.00 / 4) (#84)
    by Exeter on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:58:49 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    didn't Howard Dean recently state (5.00 / 3) (#55)
    by Josey on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:45:29 PM EST
    the SDs will look closely at the candidate that wins the last 5-6 primaries?
    It seems Obama continues leading Hillary, but losing against McCain.
    Hmm...now tell me again - which stats are more important?


    [ Parent ]
    any stat (5.00 / 4) (#67)
    by Turkana on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:49:45 PM EST
    that favors obama is important. other stats either don't exist or shouldn't exist, and therefore can be ignored.

    [ Parent ]
    The primary stats (5.00 / 3) (#146)
    by txpolitico67 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:15:05 PM EST
    because they have to follow the rules.  The Dems are so short-sighted.  They are not looking ahead to the GE.  Jeralyn's posts data showing time and time again that HRC is the stronger candidate.

    I think its amazing that we are not part of any organized political organization, but just a part of the blogosphere and so much intelligent information is distributed here for anyone who is interested to look into.

    It can't be made any easier for the super d's.


    [ Parent ]

    Hertzberg's tone has varied wildly (5.00 / 0) (#22)
    by rilkefan on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:25:33 PM EST
    I wonder if he realizes he's being hackish, tries to rein himself in, fails, then tries again.

    Funny how Sargeant starts off with, here's a balanced post - well, ok, the last line is over-the-top - well, ok, the whole last paragraph.

    This a nice turn of phrase by Hertzberg: (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by oculus on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:29:10 PM EST
    for whom the 2000 travesty is a station of the cross and vote-counting a kind of sacrament.

    Too bad he so severly veers away from it.

    [ Parent ]

    It Is My Belief (5.00 / 7) (#35)
    by flashman on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:32:20 PM EST
    That at the end of this process, Hillary will have received more actual votes than any other candidate running, indeed, more than any other primary candidate in history.  She already leads in the most inclusive vote total, as discussed on this very blog.  Hillary is clearly the people's choice, and the one who should prevail in the Democratic Primary.

    That said, I think of the SD's as independent voters, who should have the party's best interest at heart when making their decisions.  Theier existance serves many purposes in a system that has many flaws, even the need for SD's is itself a flaw.  In the final analysis, they should exercise thier independent judgement to select a candidate who best represents the will of the people, but who also has the best chance of winning the GE in November.  Thus, it is, IMO, entirelly legitimate to consider who has momentum going into the general election contest.

    From what I can see, the SD's are being whipped by the media into caving in to Obama's position.  They appear to be coward by the perception, hawked by the media, that by backing Clinton, they are stealing the election for her.  Cable news network hosts bring the party leaders on the air and lash them into compliance using the utterly flase spector that they are 'fixing' the primary.  Many in the media started to push this narritive from the moment Barak took the delegate lead, and have given more of their air time to pound away at the SD's to get them 'in line.'  The SD's, for the most part, don't seem to have the cajones to stand up to the media.  It's a damn shame.

    Ypur last paragraph says it all (5.00 / 3) (#42)
    by ruffian on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:39:04 PM EST
    Well, almost all - let's not forget that it was the Obama campaign that pushed that narrative.

    Accusing your opponent of cheating - it's the new kind of politics.

    [ Parent ]

    Yes (5.00 / 9) (#63)
    by nell on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:48:30 PM EST
    Your last paragraph is the crux of Hillary's problem.

    The media coverage during this election has been unforgivable, but as Anglachel said, it has not hurt Hillary as much as one might expect. While Barack is the media darling, Hillary is the voter's darling. Sure, some are impacted by the media coverage and buy into it and that has certainly cost her some votes, but even with the media smearing her on a daily basis as a crazy, racist, deranged, pimping, cleavage showing, cackling witch, she has gotten more votes than Barack has to the tune of 17 million plus. Would she be doing better with fair media coverage? Yes, I think so, but she has done unbelievably well given the narrative. ANY other candidate, except Bill Clinton, would have been CRUSHED under this media abuse.

    The one place where she has been, I fear, permanently damanged is with the superdelegates. These are the people most affected by the media narrative and every day they hear that they cannot take this election away from the first black man and they buy into the false and dangerous "stealing" narrative. The supers were meant to intervene in EXACTLY this kind of situation where they eliminated the possibility of having an unelectable candidate. Barack peaked before he was vetted, and he has been badly damanged since then, to the point where it will be INCREDIBLY difficult for him to win the general. I mean he is showing difficulty now in the numbers against McCain and he hasn't seen ANYTHING yet. Meanwhile, Hillary is slimed and smeared daily and she is soaring against McCain. But the media narrative has made it difficult for her with supers because they have been made psychologically unable to do their jobs.

    THAT is the problem.

    [ Parent ]

    Today's MSM Theme (5.00 / 4) (#145)
    by BackFromOhio on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:14:35 PM EST
    At least from listening to MSNBC & CNN, today's MSM theme seems to be that Hillary's "assasination" gaffe has lead Obama insider's to conclude, reluctantly, that she cannot be the VP.  Her total exclusion appears to be the goal, and her "gaffe" is the latest reason given for not including her on the ticket.  
    Again a double standard; only Obama is allowed to make mistakes of any kind.  

    [ Parent ]
    also (5.00 / 1) (#77)
    by Josey on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:55:13 PM EST
    the Pelosi-Kennedy Washington establishment supporting Obama has the capacity to offer "incentives" to SDs who are congressional reps - more earmarks, higher standing on committees, etc.
    They may not be wheelin and dealin but they have the capacity to reward Obama endorsers that ignore the polling indicating Hillary is the best candidate and just "go along to get along."

    [ Parent ]
    Finally, the righteous underlying principle: (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by felizarte on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:34:07 PM EST
    "The will of the people"! and the parallel principle of fairness. Pledged delegates, as a product of a flawed method of allocation which does not reflect thhe will of the people should not be allowed to control.  It is tantamount to rewarding the mistakes of the party leadership.

    Any worthy candidate for the nomination should consider it his or her moral imperative to make sure that the true voice of the people is heard and the votes that reflect that, counted.

    What are you counting, BTD? (5.00 / 2) (#52)
    by p lukasiak on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:44:51 PM EST
    In short, I believe Barack Obama will win the popular vote and thus his likely nomination will reflect the will of the people. what are you counting, BTD? For instance, Obama's lead in (estimated) caucus participants is significantly lower (by about 50,000) than his lead in the state certified primary that was held in Washington. And "votes" from Nebraska also take a huge hit if we count voters instead of caucus participants. (I think it goes from a lead of about 12K caucus participants to only about 2,000 actual voters in the state certified primary)

    I do not count Nebraska (none / 0) (#60)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:48:09 PM EST
    too distant in time.

    But I count all the cuacus votes and I assign the MI uncommitteds, or at least the percentage indicated by the exit polls see Bowers on that, to Obama.

    He leads now by about 110k by my count and I believe after PR, MT and SD, he will still hold a lead, though smaller.

    [ Parent ]

    1844 (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by oldnorthstate on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:45:26 PM EST
    James K Polk was not even on the nominating ballot until the 8th vote!
    Ballots     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9 Before shifts     9 After shifts
    Martin Van Buren     146     127     121     111     103     101     99     104     0     0
    Lewis Cass     83     94     92     105     107     116     123     114     29     0
    Richard M. Johnson     24     33     38     32     29     23     21     0     0     0
    John C. Calhoun     6     1     2     0     0     0     0     0     0     0
    James Buchanan     4     9     11     17     26     25     22     0     0     0
    Levi Woodbury     2     1     2     0     0     0     0     0     0     0
    Charles Stewart     1     1     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0
    James K. Polk     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     44     231     266
    Abstaining     0     0     0     1     1     1     1     4     6     0

    He eventually won the nomination and the Presidency.  So next time somebody starts blabbing about pledged delegates, consider that the History of our process goes well beyond this notion of pledged and super delegates.  In 1844, the man that become President wasn't even being considered until round number 8.

    FDR (5.00 / 1) (#153)
    by txpolitico67 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:16:44 PM EST
    got in on the 4th vote.  From what I hear, he wasn't too shabby of a president.

    But then again he never knew Obama. /s

    [ Parent ]

    I have to say that what has been happening (5.00 / 7) (#65)
    by Anne on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:49:13 PM EST
    this election makes it very hard to refute the non-voters' excuse that they don't vote because it doesn't mean anything.  Because really, what does it mean?  After the gobsmacking lunacy of the DNC this year, how confident should any of us be that our votes count?  

    I fully expect the DNC to ignore all common sense and principle and make a decision on the 31st that seals the deal for Obama.  They will do that in spite of what I suspect are rafts of mail and phone calls and e-mail and faxes from outraged and soon-to-be-former members of the party.  In spite of the thousands of pleas for contributions returned with hand-written, multiply exclamation-pointed, obscenity-laced, all caps instructions as to when the DNC can expect to receive any of our money.

    The remaining superdelegates will take their cue from the DNC, so you know what that means.

    I'm just over all of it.  I'm sick of the stupid, sick of the greed, sick of the blindness.  It's so bad that I have started to feel like I want to get as far away from it as possible.  As it is, I don't watch the news, I've cancelled my subscription to The Nation, I'm down to one or two blogs that I read on a regular basis - pretty soon, I will be "the low-information voter."

    I'm down to spectator-status, and I've started to distance myself emotionally, looking at all of it with pity and disdain and disgust.  Sure, I entertain little fantasies about the karma that is going to bite a lot of people hard and often in the coming months - who isn't at this stage of the game?

    Hillary will either prevail or she won't.  If she does, so much the better.  If she doesn't, well, life will go on.  It might not be the best life, but it will go on.


    That's where I'm heading: apathy (4.25 / 4) (#140)
    by Cream City on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:12:48 PM EST
    and that makes it far more difficult for Dems to bring me back into the party than when I was "only" angry about all this.  And I began ringing doorbells for Dems almost five decades ago, a decade before I could vote.

    Distancing is exactly how I feel, too -- and spectator sport is another perfect term.  I'm just watching the train wreck now, from an increasingly safe place, my new worldview.  And yes, I also am amazed after years of not being capable of even beginning to comprehend how people could not vote.

    The sun will rise, anyway -- and so will Hillary, as you say, in her way.  Rise, Hillary, rise . . . and see Al Gore for how you can do so much more than Obama ever will be capable of doing, even (or especially) if he actually makes it to the White House.  

    [ Parent ]

    Super Delegates should consider five factors (5.00 / 0) (#72)
    by Exeter on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:53:25 PM EST
    And in this order:
    1. What candidate can best win in November (Clinton clearly has the overwhealming advantage here)
    2. What candidate, if elected, can best implement a progressive agenda. (Obama probably has the advantage here)
    3. Will of DEMOCRATS (Hillary has won among registered Democrats by a huge margin)
    4. Which candidate will be for party building (This is a wash: Obama probably has the advantage now, but the dynamic would change in the general and Hillary would bring alot of women into the party and Obama would drive alot Dems out of the party.)
    5. Which candidate will help candidates down the ticket? (A wash: both will arguably help and hurt in some areas)


    The problem with your suggestions (none / 0) (#133)
    by bocajeff on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:11:49 PM EST
    1. What candidate can best win in November (Clinton clearly has the overwhealming advantage here) - This is subject to change. Perot was beating Bush and Clinton as late as July in 1992. Mondale was beating Reagan at some point (believe it or not) and Dukakis was beating Bush I at this point. So, this is subject to change. Also, if both candidates beat the republican do you pick the one who beats him/her the most?

    2. What candidate, if elected, can best implement a progressive agenda. (Obama probably has the advantage here) - So would you ignore conservative democrats?

    3. Will of DEMOCRATS (Hillary has won among registered Democrats by a huge margin) - There is no way to know this for sure as this has been measured by exit polls and not votes. Also, any candidate needs the support of independents to win in November, so they wouldn't mean anything before then?

    4. Which candidate will be for party building (This is a wash: Obama probably has the advantage now, but the dynamic would change in the general and Hillary would bring alot of women into the party and Obama would drive alot Dems out of the party.) - And wouldn't Hillary cause a suppression among AA's and some young voters?


    [ Parent ]
    the "unity" candidate divided the party (5.00 / 1) (#191)
    by Josey on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:33:24 PM EST
    >>>And wouldn't Hillary cause a suppression among AA's and some young voter