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The Electoral Map: Can Obama Overcome the Challenges?

The San Francisco Chronicle reports on the electoral map challenges for Obama in November:

The same day that Obama enthralled the young, educated voters of Oregon, he was thrashed in Kentucky, losing many counties by 85 and 90 percent margins.

"I was shaking my head when I looked at the Kentucky results," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "Single-digit numbers are something a fringe candidate gets. You put a Joe Smith, a placebo, on the ballot and they get 7 percent. ... The voters in Kentucky in our poll said they thought Barack Obama would be the next president, yet only 7 percent in some of these counties were voting for him."

And these were Democrats. Parts of pivotal Ohio and Pennsylvania mirror or include Appalachia.

Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico don't make up the difference:

Obama then would have to recoup those 41 electoral votes someplace else. Taking Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado would yield just 19, leaving him short even of Kerry's losing total.

Add Ohio and PA to Florida and one has to wonder what the superdelegates are thinking.

Comments now closed.

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  • Display: Sort:
    They are thinking (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by Grace on Mon May 26, 2008 at 11:53:57 PM EST
    That they like their jobs and they probably can keep them if a Repubican becomes President.  That's because the s* will hit the fan in the next couple of years regarding the economy.  

    If the President is from a different pary, they don't have to actually solve any problems.  They can just blame him.  

    That's my best guess.  Seriously.  

       

    Your reason is probably the number 1 (5.00 / 8) (#2)
    by RalphB on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:04:58 AM EST
    cause, but I also think they really want to get their paws on his fundraising lists, etc.  They think he's gonna be one huge ATM for them.


    [ Parent ]
    I think you're right -- (5.00 / 4) (#32)
    by Iphie on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:32:17 AM EST
    it's the money. But I think it's foolish for other Dems to believe that those donors are going to become a serious source of cash for other Dem races or causes. His supporters are giving money to Barack Obama because He is The One -- once that money is needed for something other than the glorification of Obama, I think it will dry up.

    [ Parent ]
    Exactly. When they want The One (5.00 / 1) (#183)
    by Cream City on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:44:37 AM EST
    that doesn't mean they'll fork over the bucks for Just Anyone.  

    [ Parent ]
    and that is faulty thinking. (5.00 / 2) (#211)
    by hellothere on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:15:31 AM EST
    these young voters are one time shoppers. they won't be back. yeah those lists! heaven help us, sold down the river for a list! they democrats deserve what they get but we don't.

    [ Parent ]
    I disagree (5.00 / 3) (#31)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:30:53 AM EST
    I think it has much, much more to do with the lust for those younger voters, with a side order of not having the stomach to stomp on the aspirations of African-American voters.

    Those are, IMHO, admirable sentiments.  The question is whether it's worth rewarding a campaign like Obama's run, blowing off the women's vote and losing the White House in what should have been any easy Dem year.

    I'm glad I'm not one of the anonymous party SuperDelegates having to decide on the basis of what's best for the party long term, rather than what I think will help me in my congressional race this year.

    [ Parent ]

    Not to mention older voters. (5.00 / 8) (#44)
    by Iphie on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:38:45 AM EST
    This focus on the "youth" vote, and as Donna Brazile put it, the future of the party is coming at a cost in support from older voters. So we're talking about not only blowing off women, but Hispanics, the working class, and the elderly. Them's alot of people right there -- the old coalition that is being sold down the river.

    [ Parent ]
    You're absolutely right, of course (5.00 / 3) (#70)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:51:02 AM EST
    I was just trying not to go through the whole laundry list of those who have been alienated by The Precious in deference to TL's limited server capacity...

    [ Parent ]
    Lust for younger voters (5.00 / 3) (#105)
    by themomcat on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:04:31 AM EST
    has backfired in the past re: McGovern. Even the Republicans have tried that tactic but when it comes down to the wire the younger voters do not show up to vote in enough strength to counter groups like the working class, women and older voters.

    [ Parent ]
    Brilliant line. (5.00 / 2) (#111)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:07:12 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I've been through (none / 0) (#181)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:43:14 AM EST
    a lotta elections like that, but I do think this one is different.  I don't think those younger voters will stick around or bother to vote much for downticket races, but I do think they would come out in droves for Obama in the general.

    [ Parent ]
    You may be right (5.00 / 5) (#198)
    by themomcat on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:56:19 AM EST
    but I do not think that it will be enough to overcome the exodus of Regan Democrats, white working class, some very displeased women and older voters. And we still do not know what other skeletons lurk in Barack and Michelle's closet. And Michelle will be an issue in the GE. Hillary was and so was Theresa Kerry and it won't be over income tax returns. The day after Obama secures the nomination this is going to get very ugly, very quick. And there will be no do  over for the DNC. IMO.

    [ Parent ]
    Even when he's tarnished? (5.00 / 1) (#202)
    by nycstray on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:03:13 AM EST
    When Wright first hit the air, there were some interesting posts over at DK. Remember, we're looking at political newbies. He's recruiting at high schools and such . . . they only really know what they've been told in some cases. The "No Dynasty" ones really crack me up when they say they've "lived through it". Yeah, while mom and dad raised ya!

    [ Parent ]
    even the "droves" of younger voters is (5.00 / 0) (#213)
    by hellothere on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:20:48 AM EST
    limited. many have other things to be doing. i have seen the expected youth vote just not show up. so i don't expect a rousing turnout like some indicate. the ones that show up is the you know the democratic base or not! this year i am not so sure. they have been told they aren't needed or wanted. good luck with that.

    [ Parent ]
    I almost feel bad for them (4.20 / 5) (#68)
    by Valhalla on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:50:23 AM EST
    because I'm sure in the beginning when Obama started to pick up steam they thought they could have their cake and eat it too.  And although I won't vote for Obama, I do wish, really wish, that he had turned out to be all that it seemed he might be back then.

    But the getting carried away in all the early excitement was forgivable.  What was not forgivable is the choice to pull out the knives when he started to flatline.  They gambled on being able to drive Clinton out of the race -- it was a big gamble and they lost.  Also unforgivable is that these are all politicians, who live and die by polls and demographics, they should have seen it coming that she would do well in the post Feb contests.  Maybe they could not have forseen just how well, but hopes that BO could continue the red state caucus blowouts after they ran out of red state caucuses was stupid.

    [ Parent ]

    Bingo. Self-preservation (5.00 / 1) (#216)
    by Cream City on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:24:50 AM EST
    is motivating the super-delegates, the DNC, etc.  That's all.  It's not about the voters, at all.

    [ Parent ]
    Will he offer Friendship Fries? (5.00 / 0) (#223)
    by nycstray on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:34:15 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    My best guess if they aren't thinking at all! (none / 0) (#55)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:45:07 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Oh that's the scariest thought. (none / 0) (#65)
    by RalphB on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:49:03 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    True of, oh, say, Bill Richardson (none / 0) (#76)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:52:33 AM EST
    but I know enough about local party people to know that the so far undeclared/undecided (heh) folks have probably been going through considerable anguish on the whole question.  I think they're resigned to Obama now, though.

    [ Parent ]
    That article deliberately pulls its punches (5.00 / 5) (#3)
    by cymro on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:11:15 AM EST
    I think the author is being careful not to say anything that would actually cause the Democratic Party to change its mind about Obama before the nomination process is over. No doubt the paper's owners have their fingers crossed hoping that the Dem's will not wake up until it's too late.

    Yes (5.00 / 2) (#6)
    by Jane in CA on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:15:39 AM EST
    That's how I read it too.  This is the San Francisco Chronicle, after all.  Although the first two commenters on the site were very scornful of the critical analysis.  One asked, "Is this a national newspaper or the dailykos?" LOL.

    [ Parent ]
    I don't think they can (5.00 / 2) (#79)
    by dianem on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:53:33 AM EST
    The democratic leadership got on the Obama train months ago. I don't know exactly why, but I suspect it was a combination of the appeal of bringing in new, young voters, cementing the Democratic Party with black voters, and identifying the party as the party of "change". Besides, they underestimated Clinton. Who would have thought that she could withstand a major pummeling and still be in the race at the end? They thought the pummeling would be from McCain, and that the end would be the GE, but the principle stands.

    Now... Obama's bots have been repeating on every blog that he has won. The media say that he is the presumptive nominee. Even some Clinton staffers have ceded. The only way this is going to turn is if some kind of cataclysm happens to Obama. A scandal to beat all scandals. At this point... not likely. Otherwise, if Clinton pulls off a win it will be labelled a steal by Obama supporter's and she can't possibly win without them.

    [ Parent ]

    I believe the DNC's (5.00 / 6) (#116)
    by themomcat on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:09:12 AM EST
    CDS has taken over their mentality. they are afraid of HRC because she smarter and would be an even better President than Bill and that scares the likes of Dean. Even Bill's old crew are scared of her because they would lose not only power but credibility. Bottom line they do not want to yield power to a woman who is 110 times smarter than they are.

    [ Parent ]
    Re: I believe the DNC's (4.00 / 2) (#189)
    by Sleeper on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:50:01 AM EST
    they are afraid of HRC because she smarter and would be an even better President than Bill and that scares the likes of Dean.

    No, they're afraid of a civil war at the convention.  Why on earth would Dean be afraid of a successful Democratic president?  Her success would be Dean's success and he'd been seen as the best DNC chairman in decades.

    Bottom line they do not want to yield power to a woman who is 110 times smarter than they are.

    Then why did she pay Mark Penn millions of dollars to shape a losing strategy?  Why did she have no plan of attack for post-Super Tuesday?

    [ Parent ]

    Dean has a super ego (5.00 / 5) (#209)
    by themomcat on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:13:14 AM EST
    and to some degree this is about that ego. He doesn't like the Clinton's, he failed to get the nomination in 2004 and he has put all his eggs in the basket for Obama from the start. I have watched what he has said in the media since last year and how he has steered the DNC since he took charge. This is about control for Dean and he has managed to bring many former supporters of the Clinton's on board with promises of power if they take Congress and the White House. He sees the $$$$$ that Obama has raised and the DNC is hurting right now. Hurting so bad that there is even a deal with the Obama campaign to help the DNC raise funds. It is Money and Power that drives these folks and they know they can manipulate Obama because he doesn't have the political experience that HRC has. Just look at where Obama has come from and who has supported him.
    Hillary scares them because they cannot control her and, as I said, she is 110 times smarter than they are.

    [ Parent ]
    DNC fundraising (5.00 / 4) (#271)
    by Carolyn in Baltimore on Tue May 27, 2008 at 07:50:00 AM EST
    Perhaps Dean should pay attention to why Dems are refusing t fund the DNC. I have told any number of callers that I will not give to organized party efforts because I prefer to fund individual 'real' Dems who will fight for the people. I know that many others have said the same thing.
    And why would I give to a DNC that shaped the primaries to make it easy for Obama to claim momentum and not other worthy candidates?
    I was a Deamiac in 2003-2004. I believed in a 50 state strategy. I want the Dems to win Congress and the Presidency - but not at the price of our souls. I have been disappointed in Reid and Pelosi.

    If Dean wants to energise Dems who can donate - the answer is simple -support  real democrats.

    [ Parent ]

    because he'll lose his job... (5.00 / 4) (#255)
    by p lukasiak on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:49:16 AM EST
    Why on earth would Dean be afraid of a successful Democratic president?

    because it mean's he'll lose his job.

    There has been a battle in the DNC every since Dean took over about Party resources.  Washington-centric party officials don't like Dean's 50 State strategy, because it gives the lions share of Party resources to the state Democratic organizations.  

    A lot of Obama's super-delegate support comes not from people who think Obama will make the best candidate/president, but from supporters of Dean's 50 State Strategy, which to date hasn't been (and, as a long term strategy, wasn't expected to be) a rousing success because it takes time to build state and local party organizations and make them competitive.

    The Obama cult provides an opportunity to jump=start the 50 state strategy, because the interests of President and The Party are perceived as identical.   All the little Obots scurrying around to show up at caucuses and/or do GOTV in deep red states will (theoretically) be absorbed into the party apparatus, as the interests of the Party and a President Obama merge into one.

    The problem, of course, is that the Obama personality cult doesn't care about "the Party", and are likely to do far more damage to the Party if they get control of state and local party organizations.  We've seen how these people treat anyone who doesn't go all glassy-eyed at the prospect of another Obama speech -- and the Obot will wind up alienating the Party regulars in states with weak Democratic organizations, and will create chaos in stronger state and local Party organizations.

    [ Parent ]

    SDs have no choice (5.00 / 1) (#248)
    by Rainsong on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:22:58 AM EST
    I suspect Obama's nomination was locked in, through back-room Party deals, long, long before the primaries ever started. Amongst other things, the Party's collusion in the FL & MI debacle was a blunt instrument to help Obama along. They were just not meant to be kept out for more than a few weeks.

    He was meant to knock her out fairly early, Iowa, the race-card played before South Carolina etc, and the very "convenient" timing, of having all those little caucus states all lined up in a row after Super-Tuesday, with MI & FL conveniently excluded.  

    Timing is everything. The media momentum from that string, was meant to have taken him to victory in Ohio and Texas, and have him crowned alongside McCain. And the escalating media storm around minor gaffes, racism/sexism/MI & FL issues and so on, could have all been put to rest and quickly forgotten and smoothed over, before it got out of control.

    Didn't quite go according to The Plan, Hillary was still too close a second, with some impressive state wins, but The Plan to nominate Obama was set in concrete long ago. From Obama, his campaign, and senior Party backers, has been increasing bored frustration at her wins keeping her too close a second-runner, and feeling forced to go through a farce of the rest of the primary season just for appearance's sake.
    Doesn't matter how many she wins, or how good her polling, or what her totals on any metric is, the matter was decided last year, or even earlier.

    In my view, speaking for myself only, the Obama-wing of the Party played this second half,  as being far too impatient. It got old, and turned too many off. Now they are in a pickle for the GE.

    But I dont think they are that concerned with the GE. The 'must-have' was the power-grab in the take-over of the Party itself, the GE is 'nice-to-have', as a bonus.  

    A political faction in a power-struggle that will go to such enormous lengths, using bribery/threats, on states like Florida, on groups like NARAL etc (the list goes on), isn't going to allow any power to anyone from the Clinton-wing, let alone Hillary herself.

    Obama has most of his wins when turnout is low, and when he is able to suppress the opposition's vote, and thats one valid GE strategy.  With all that money, perhaps he can swiftboat McCain, just enough, to encourage more Republican voters, than Dems, into staying home as well?

    [ Parent ]

    paranoid nonsense.... (none / 0) (#260)
    by p lukasiak on Tue May 27, 2008 at 07:04:28 AM EST
    I suspect Obama's nomination was locked in, through back-room Party deals, long, long before the primaries ever started. Amongst other things, the Party's collusion in the FL & MI debacle was a blunt instrument to help Obama along. They were just not meant to be kept out for more than a few weeks.

    sorry, but this is just paranoid nonsense.

    The primary schedule was a 'grand compromise' -- the DNC didn't want to lose the chance of winning Iowa and New Hampshire's EC votes, so they continued to get preferential treatment.  And because those states are overwhelmingly White, an Affirmative Action approach to the calendar was taken -- one state with lots of Hispanics/Latinos (and the Senate Majority Leader -- Nevada), and one state with a huge percentage of African Americans (South Carolina) were given preference over the rest of the states.

    Florida and Michigan were stripped completely of their delegates to keep the focus of the candidates -- and the media -- on the states that the DNC had compromised on as having the greatest influence on the election.   But that was never intended to be permanent -- the assumption was always that the nomination would be settled on Super Tuesday, and once that decision was made, all the delegates from FL and MI would be seated.
    (If the sanctions were intended to be permanent, they would have gone with the DNC's standing 50% loss rule.)

    The "punishment" of FL and MI achieved its goal -- there was almost no coverage of Florida and Michigan, and the results in those states played no role in winnowing the field of candidates -- and the delegates should have been seated right after ST as planned.  But when it turned out that Obama and Clinton were still in the running after ST, the whole plan fell apart, as Obama resisted inclusion of those delegates to make his standing in the delegate race look far more impressive than it would be if FL and MI were included.

    [ Parent ]

    Jay Cost has an interesting analysis (5.00 / 30) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:13:10 AM EST
    of the white male vote here. He tells us what we know - white working class males do not vote for Obama.

    You know, I was really wrong about two things in this election - that Obama could hold his own with working class voters, and that Hillary clinton would not become the terrific GE candidate she has become.

    Let's face it - I was wrong. Clinton is more electable than Obama. I underestimated the backlash to Obama's becoming the Elite Media candidate. And his inability or unwillingness to try and reach out to certain segment of voters. I also underestimated how toxic his supporters, which include the Media would be.

    I also underestimate how good a candidate Hillary Clinton could be. Right now she is hands down a better politician than Obama.

    If Clinton was the nominee, the election would be a foregone conclusion now. But part of that is precisely because of the challenge Obama presented. Mark Penn blew it so bad in not letting Clinton, Hillary Clinton, be Clinton. He is truly the worst political operative in the business.

    Obama is likely goping to win, but he COULD lose. Clinton would be a lock now.

    Ironic.

    And yet, he seems to be the choice of Democratic primary voters as well as the Dem Establishment. I think he will achieve a narrow popular vote win and a more comfortable delegate win.

    But if the only criteria is who is more likely to win, I think any honest observer would now have to admit Clinton is the more electable candidate. Heck, a lock in November.

    But Obama is the choice, the narrow choice, but the choice nonetheless.

    Yup (5.00 / 13) (#7)
    by andgarden on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:18:01 AM EST
    I saw the writing on the wall months ago. Personally, I don't think Obama has a great chance in November, but he might be able to win.

    Who'd a thunk Hillary would have become so electable? The "Her negatives are too high!" crowd turned out to be completely wrong.

    [ Parent ]

    Oh, and Jay Cost confirms Tom Davis's read: (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by andgarden on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:19:00 AM EST
    Both the income and college variables are related to Obama's share of the white male vote. Combined, they account for 40% of the variation in Obama's share of the white male vote. From this, we can infer that socioeconomic status makes a difference with the white male vote. The wealthier and more educated the population, the better Obama does among white males.


    [ Parent ]
    rewriting Jay Cost (5.00 / 6) (#264)
    by p lukasiak on Tue May 27, 2008 at 07:19:21 AM EST
    The less threatened by economic uncertainty the population, the better Obama does among white nd often misogynistic males. that's really what this is all about -- and by framing the discussion in terms of educational and financial status in this manner, the reason why Obama gets the "rich white male" vote gets lost. Wealth affords men the luxury of not worrying about things like gasoline prices, and the rising cost of bread -- the things that cause anxiety in working class voters on a daily basis are merely a curiousity to those in the upper income brackets, whose idea of "cutting back" means settling for the "regular", rather than the high-definition DVD players for the back seat of their SUVs this year. They are free to concern themselves with "fundamental change in the process" without ever inquiring what that actually means in terms of their own lives, because they don't feel vulnerable to the prospect of change.

    [ Parent ]
    I was part of that crowd (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:19:10 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    See, you aren't always right! (5.00 / 0) (#11)
    by andgarden on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:21:25 AM EST
    heh.

    [ Parent ]
    Hillary made me very wrong (5.00 / 13) (#17)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:23:51 AM EST
    I think if everyone was honest, they would admit that.

    I wonder how much of the hate coming from some quarters of the blogs is they realize it too and are worried about looking stupid in November.

    Me, I am feeling kind of stupid about it now. but she simply was a different candidate after she got rid of Penn.

    [ Parent ]

    I think (5.00 / 9) (#22)
    by andgarden on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:26:53 AM EST
    I wonder how much of the hate coming from some quarters of the blogs is they realize it too and are worried about looking stupid in November.
    is exactly right. I'm pretty sure I even said so a couple of weeks ago. Every time Hillary performs better in a head-to-head, the WWTSBQ knives come out in force.

    [ Parent ]
    I believe it was also that later (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Valhalla on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:27:50 AM EST
    contests were weighted to her best demographics, and the backlash against the get-out-of-the-race meme gained more momentum as time went on.

    [ Parent ]
    Sure (5.00 / 10) (#34)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:33:03 AM EST
    But that is a reality now. I am saying RIGHT NOW, Clinton would be a mortal lock to win in November. McCain has no line of attacks, the economy is a Clinton owned issue. she has perceived experience. And yes, the re is no new baggage to be pulled out simply because nothing more can be said. Even this stupid RFK thing had no effect.

    Mu gawd, she is beating McCain by 9 in Kentucky!!

    She's win over 300 electoral votes for sure.

    [ Parent ]

    I still believe she can pull this off (5.00 / 4) (#91)
    by JavaCityPal on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:59:38 AM EST
    she has won the admiration of some very powerful Republicans in addition to the respect of so many voters.

    I wasn't leaning Obama, but I could have voted for him until the Rev. Wright episode. It had nothing directly to do with what the Rev was saying, and certainly nothing to do with race. It was the betrayal. If he had nothing to hide, why didn't he respond with an honest summary of what his relationship with Rev Wright really was. That pattern of refusing to answer simple and direct questions has continued while his distraction tactics have grown.

    I agree that so many are now embarrassed and don't want to admit they could have been so wrong for so long. Obama isn't just now showing his weaknesses, or the sinister appearance that he is running for this office for purely personal reasons.

    [ Parent ]

    Even before that, I saw the same thing (5.00 / 6) (#226)
    by Cream City on Tue May 27, 2008 at 03:06:12 AM EST
    in the debate when he weaseled about Rezko only being a client, and I had followed that story in the Chicago media and knew it was a lie.

    But then, I couldn't go with him 'way back last fall, when it was the religiosity -- that faux Southern preacher style he soon abandoned -- that did it for me.  After all these years of hearing that stuff from Republicans, I could stand it even less from a Dem.  That got me looking more closely at him, and at his church's website . . . and I just had to wonder when that would collapse upon him, too.

    I have the same sense now about so much more that I have read about him in the non-national media.  They must have done so, too, and they're protecting him for their own purposes.  We'll see what those are -- but they can't protect him forever, as Fox News must have it, as it had the Rev. Wright story ready and waiting. . . .

    [ Parent ]

    BTD, I admire you (none / 0) (#212)
    by A little night musing on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:16:44 AM EST
    I don't always agree, but I always learn something from your posts.

    [ Parent ]
    I REALLY question... (none / 0) (#218)
    by Y Knot on Tue May 27, 2008 at 02:27:13 AM EST
    ... the "There's no new stuff" idea.  I simply cannot believe that the Repubicans would play nice with Clinton if she were the nominee.  They haven't gone after her once this year.  They've simply sat back and let her and Obama and her tear each other down.

    Considering that they have been assuming they'd be going against her in the 2008 general election since 2000, I find it impossible to believe they haven't got a ton of ammunition to fire against her, be it legitimate or otherwise.

    They'd have to be utter morons to have not planned for it.

    [ Parent ]

    I'm not too surprised (none / 0) (#259)
    by ineedalife on Tue May 27, 2008 at 07:01:43 AM EST
    I have kin there. I always knew she would run strong in the border south once she gained her voice.

    [ Parent ]
    If other bloggers were as honest as you ... (5.00 / 7) (#42)
    by cymro on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:37:05 AM EST
    ... the blogosphere would be a much better place, BTD.

    [ Parent ]
    She was a different candidate before (5.00 / 6) (#142)
    by dianem on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:21:04 AM EST
    It was just hard to see through all of the smoke the media threw up around her. They seemed to feel that this was an opportunity to go back to the good old high ratings days of Clinton bashing day in day out. Then the far left liberals jumped in, claiming that Bill and Hillary Clinton were Republicans in Dem clothing, and a lot of people who were paying more attention to recess than politics during the Clinton era drank the kool-aid. Clinton became a hybrid of what the media wanted her to be and what the far left wanted her to be. But when I and many others actually looked at what she really was, we were impressed.

    [ Parent ]
    I think it is a big mistake (5.00 / 8) (#153)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:24:38 AM EST
    to characterize Obama supporters and places like Kos as "far left." There is nothing particularly "left" about Obama, and actual lefties aren't particularly fond of him. (They aren't all that fond of Hillary, either, for that matter.)

    It's just wrong to blame Obama on the left.  That's not at all where his support is coming from (despite Katrina vanden Heuvel).

    [ Parent ]

    They're not so much pro-Obama (5.00 / 2) (#186)
    by dianem on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:49:10 AM EST
    ...as anti-Clinton. To them, Clinton represents a movement of the Democratic Party to the right. This is a bad thing, possibly worse than another Republican presidency. Obama isn't perfect, but he's very good at convincing everybody that he wants what they want. He doesn't commit to anything, and when he says something it's generally along the lines of "I will do this, but I'm not going to make it a priority".

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe it wasn't getting rid of Penn that (5.00 / 3) (#146)
    by IndiDemGirl on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:22:06 AM EST
    changed her style, but the fact that she realized she had all but lost the nomination. Therefore she had nothing to lose - she went all in.  She took risks, she seemed at ease, she seemed to have fun.

    During that same time Obama's strategy looked like  "protect the lead."  He did everything to avoid risk.  It seemed as if he was bidding his time until the GE begain.  Protecting the lead is not a strategy that projects strength.

    [ Parent ]

    I saw it in New Hampshire (5.00 / 6) (#177)
    by otherlisa on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:38:06 AM EST
    I was so not a Clinton fan, but when I watched that debate, I was really impressed and realized that I had not really seen who this person was and what kind of candidate she could be.

    I agree she's gotten much stronger since dumping Mark Penn, and I have to say that Maggie Williams seems to be a really positive influence as well.

    [ Parent ]

    morning joe has talked about that also. (none / 0) (#195)
    by hellothere on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:54:21 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    You're not the only one ... (none / 0) (#237)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue May 27, 2008 at 04:43:18 AM EST
    ... who has either overestimated Obama's universal appeal or misjudged his political staying power and stamina.

    As it stands, the man clearly peaked in mid-February, and since that time has been content to run out the clock rather than close the deal with Democratic voters.

    We just concluded our three-day-long state Democratic convention here in Honolulu yesterday, and I made no attempt to hide my serious misgivings about both the course our party leaders have set for November, and the brash, almost unseemly overconfidence exuded by my fellow delegates regarding Obama's chances come November.

    I reminded people repeatedly that Hawaii's support fot its native son "Barry" Obama was wholly disproportionate to that expressed by the rest of the country; he holds a 33-point lead over John McCain here in the islands, which is nearly double the lead he now enjoys in his current home state of Illinois.

    I've no doubt that we can win this thing in November, but it's not going to be easy.  We will have to work very, very hard to do so -- far harder than most convention-goers were capable of imagining, given their celebratory mood this past weekend.

    I've come to agree with you, BTD, that a unity ticket of Obama and Clinton (or vice versa, if superdelegates decide otherwise) would make that task so much easier.

    [ Parent ]

    andgarden, is the above a Monday (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by oculus on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:25:53 AM EST
    night blog-dump?  

    [ Parent ]
    heh (none / 0) (#30)
    by andgarden on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:30:17 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I always thought (5.00 / 5) (#33)
    by Grace on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:32:46 AM EST
    she would become President.  I have Republican friends who were dying to vote for her way back when she announced she was running.  They *liked* her, really LIKED her.  They felt it was time for a female President and she had all the right credentials.  


    [ Parent ]
    Well (5.00 / 11) (#36)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:34:40 AM EST
    that seems silly to me too. There is no way Republicans liked her BEFORE.

    but they respect toughness.

    there's the irony, the one Dem candidate who does not have a toughness problem is Hillary Clinton.

    She's shown the boyz how it is done.

    [ Parent ]

    And the projection of toughness (5.00 / 0) (#63)
    by andgarden on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:47:51 AM EST
    is probably the #1 reason why she is now more electable.

    [ Parent ]
    They are (5.00 / 1) (#64)
    by Grace on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:48:11 AM EST
    California Republicans.  They tend to vote for people they like.  That's how we end up with people like Gray Davis and Arnold.  

    These particular friends also voted for Bill Clinton and were unhappy about the Impeachment.  Could they be RINOs?  :)    

    [ Parent ]

    Maybe RINOs (5.00 / 2) (#84)
    by RalphB on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:55:56 AM EST
    but I know some TX republicans who voted for her in the primary and told me they would do it again in November.  These people are not RINOs but somehow they saw the toughness before I did and they liked it.


    [ Parent ]
    It's weird... (5.00 / 7) (#74)
    by kredwyn on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:52:05 AM EST
    but I have coffee with a friend every week. And he's about as traditional a Republican as you can get (except for trying to be more green and looking at alternatives to standard electric n' stuff).

    He still doesn't like Bill. But he's turned completely around re: Hillary.

    In his words, "she's got moxy" and he respects that.

    [ Parent ]

    her grit has won her many supporters on the right (5.00 / 3) (#251)
    by kempis on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:42:46 AM EST
    And Chris Matthews forgets that public opinion swung toward Hillary back at the end of her husband's presidency NOT because people felt sorry for her but because they admired the dignity with she and Chelsea carried themselves. We saw one of her "values" then, and all but the bratty among us (who thought she should have thrown a public tantrum) respected her for her strength in public.

    [ Parent ]
    Clinton hate has always been blown up... (5.00 / 3) (#152)
    by dianem on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:24:16 AM EST
    ...by the media. His poll numbers never fell nearly as low as Bush's, even during the Lewinsky pseudo-scandal. People know the difference between lying about getting oral sex and lying about starting a war. Even the legendary Republican hate for him has to be a bit exaggerated, given how high his numbers ran during his term.

    [ Parent ]
    Probably because (5.00 / 4) (#252)
    by kenoshaMarge on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:43:18 AM EST
    the "Clinton Hate" was really a "media hate" and an "inside the beltway" hate. That's what always strikes me as funny when Obama fans point to Senator Clinton as an insider. Neither Clinton has ever been an insider because the insiders wouldn't allow it.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes, well, while I agree with you Penn was (none / 0) (#249)
    by masslib on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:29:10 AM EST
    a disaster, I don't think it helped that she spent much of the year running against the pips.  She was the only candidate the rest of her competitors criticized, which they did relentlessly.  I also disagree with you about the choice of primary voters.  I think Hill will win with a slight lead in the pop vote.  But that's really here nor there.  The voters are split, but she's won far more votes than Obama in the last three months, and the point of the protracted primary was to see who had the staying power.  The super's are nominating Obama, and you and I both know they could just as easily nominate Hillary.

    [ Parent ]
    Don't you think this comment deserves (5.00 / 3) (#10)
    by oculus on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:20:06 AM EST
    to be a stand-alone post?  I do.  

    [ Parent ]
    When the nomination is decided (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:22:06 AM EST
    I'll eat my crow.

    Here's the thing - it is over.

    At this point I am just thinking about what can be done to improve Obama's chances.

    [ Parent ]

    Magic 8 ball says (5.00 / 2) (#18)
    by andgarden on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:25:02 AM EST
    "ask again later."

    [ Parent ]
    I'm going to disagree... (5.00 / 8) (#123)
    by kredwyn on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:11:14 AM EST
    just cause.

    I don't think it's over. I think that there are a lot of folks who want it to be over...to appear as though it's over. Cause that helps with the "perceptions game."

    And yes, I know the media darling argument.

    But I don't think it's over...


    [ Parent ]

    It's not over until August (5.00 / 5) (#229)
    by andrys on Tue May 27, 2008 at 03:46:40 AM EST
    And there is danger in wanting to say "It's over" (for June 4) when it isn't, but when saying so gets you in line with how things are "going" -- and ObamaCamp is trying to use that to make Reality Now, which you are helping.  

    They are really upset that SD's haven't just come out now, as they were expected to after the big announcement he had reached the majority of pledged delegates.  That's why Arianna started a big campaign to get the SDs to commit NOW, before the other 3 states vote.  (There'd be even more on Clinton's side by then.)

     The myth they're hammering, so that it will work to convince people (SDs and voters), is that the SDs must go according to leader of elected delegates, but that is not at all in the rules.  

     The SDs were created in case it would hurt the party to go with the elected delegates.  This is a very complex situation, but it's not over until it really is.  And the Obama crew is NOT breathing any sigh of relief until it actually happens.  They are worried.  That's why the desperation to make Clinton's RFK statement what it was not.

    [ Parent ]

    You have convinced me Obama (none / 0) (#15)
    by oculus on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:23:33 AM EST
    will be the nominee.

    [ Parent ]
    Then there is no point (5.00 / 5) (#19)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:25:36 AM EST
    in writng that piece which will only inflame people.

    After Obama is the nominee they won't care and instead might think about how Obama can get better. Cuz boy, is he ever the incredible shrinking candidate right now.

    [ Parent ]

    My opinion: many Clinton (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by oculus on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:28:18 AM EST
    supporters here who state they will never vote for Obama might rethink that position were you to post your comment and take all the brickbats coming your direction.

    [ Parent ]
    I don't think it's only brackets. (5.00 / 8) (#37)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:35:53 AM EST
    It's much deeper, our concern.  I am truly angry at diluting the Democratic agenda with all his pandering when we had the country on our side.  Now, we are arguing the same old nothing we argue in elections.  

    [ Parent ]
    BTD doesn't have any brickbats coming (5.00 / 7) (#46)
    by RalphB on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:38:53 AM EST
    He's been nothing but honest and straight forward and no one should ever apologize for that.  I would hope that no one would base a presidential vote on a personal opinion from a blog.  If that's an Obama strategy, he's in worse trouble than I think and that would be hard to imagine  :-)


    [ Parent ]
    BTD didn't have anything to do (none / 0) (#98)
    by waldenpond on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:03:42 AM EST
    with my decision not to support Clinton.  BTDs been part of an ongoing debate but people come to their own decisions.

    I expect Obama's team to be doing a lot of sucking up and talking about how 'wonderful' Clinton is.  It is what it is... transparent and hypocritical politics.

    [ Parent ]

    Your decision (none / 0) (#158)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:26:27 AM EST
    not to support Clinton?  Huh?

    [ Parent ]
    My opinion (5.00 / 6) (#27)
    by andgarden on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:28:41 AM EST
    There was never any "there" there. He'd better develop some substance, and fast.

    My suggestion, study Bill Clinton circa 1993, and take acting classes.

    [ Parent ]

    Except that many are convinced (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by oculus on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:30:07 AM EST
    he is acting now.  They want to see the real Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    Instantpundit but (5.00 / 2) (#35)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:34:11 AM EST
    you cannot get instant substance.  

    [ Parent ]
    I want to see (5.00 / 3) (#90)
    by Grace on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:59:31 AM EST
    a bigger resume and some leadership experience -- and I don't think he can get those two in six months either.  

    [ Parent ]
    The problem (5.00 / 5) (#236)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 27, 2008 at 04:43:06 AM EST
    is that he is NOT going to get better. He has had all primary season to work on his problems and has done nada.

    This piece really doesn't inflame people. Obama's behavior is what inflames people.

    [ Parent ]

    Stop the hand-wringing (5.00 / 3) (#239)
    by margph on Tue May 27, 2008 at 04:55:43 AM EST
    You know, BTD, I am getting pretty tired of this.  Between you and young Andgarten, it feels like a tag team of despair and feigned buyer's remorse.  You keep pushing this meme that it's over.  Well, with that kind of pathetic stance plastered all over this blog --for months now you have pushed Obama as the inevitable.  It has personally grated on my nerves quite a bit.

    If you TRULY believed Clinton is the better nominee, would be the better president, don't you feel some kind of obligation to help that come about?  Why is hand-wringing over a comrade's fall better than trying to help her up as she stumbles?  You get all kinds of kudos for this blog.  Well, make it mean something.  Stop all the words of despair and do something.  It's not over until she quits or until the delegates vote.

    [ Parent ]

    incredibly shrinking is right (5.00 / 2) (#254)
    by kempis on Tue May 27, 2008 at 06:47:18 AM EST
    I'm seriously concerned about him. His former "eloquence," which was his strength, seems to have utterly left him. Worse, he seems disoriented, silly, punch-drunk--not at all presidential. It's like having a Democratic Dubya who can deliver a speech better.

    I know he's tired, but he's 47 years old, for god's sake. Hillary's 60 and seems twenty-times more vigorous, mentally and physically. Hell, McCain seems more steady on his feet these days than Obama does. If he's wobbly now, what's Obama going to be like this fall?

    [ Parent ]

    I've thought all along that she would be (5.00 / 10) (#24)
    by RalphB on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:28:13 AM EST
    the best candidate but she's really surprised me as well.  Once Penn disappeared the real person came out and is honestly the best candidate I've seen in my lifetime.  Darned if she's not better than Bill in some ways, in toughness and character at least.

    She would absolutely blow McCain away in the general election.  Bill Clinton was right when he said it would be hard for her to get the nomination but, if she did, she would win the general going away.  It makes me very sad to see how this is turning out but I still have a bit of hope that she will take it to the convention.  Maybe there the cooler heads can prevail.


    [ Parent ]

    Kills me that (5.00 / 4) (#41)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:36:55 AM EST
    we probably won't get to see her take on McCain in debates.  I would pay to see that.

    [ Parent ]
    Heh., we still can (5.00 / 2) (#45)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:38:51 AM EST
    Deus ex Machina, Rezko found guilty next week.  Huh.  

    [ Parent ]
    well, I think just a guilty verdict (none / 0) (#60)
    by oculus on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:47:23 AM EST
    won't do much; but if Rezko "sings."

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah... (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:51:25 AM EST
    well, he would have to get out of Dodge if he sings.  

    [ Parent ]
    Might help w/his sentencing. (5.00 / 0) (#75)
    by oculus on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:52:32 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Syrian singer (none / 0) (#82)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:55:16 AM EST
    Syrian singer famous one.  He always reminded me of Rezko.  

    [ Parent ]
    What Obama got wrong (5.00 / 6) (#25)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:28:16 AM EST
    People who love him, love him and will love him.  Hillary, can convert people to love her.  That makes her a better candidate.  This is why I am so depressed.  

    [ Parent ]
    Absolutely (5.00 / 3) (#59)
    by maladroit on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:47:02 AM EST
    When people see Hillary in person, it's usually an eye-opening experience for them (those that don't already like her, anyway) and they come away with a much more favorable impression of her. That's been my experience, at least.

    [ Parent ]
    she shines in debates (5.00 / 4) (#73)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:52:03 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    That's what turned me (5.00 / 8) (#162)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:28:25 AM EST
    from an admirer into a supporter, those early debates.  It's not just the mastery of substance, but the clear instinct for calm command.

    [ Parent ]
    Wow (5.00 / 4) (#40)
    by Edgar08 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:36:29 AM EST
    The co-incidence of these realizations with the "It's over" conclusion really bugs me.

    I don't know what to make of it.

    [ Parent ]

    Take it as you want (5.00 / 4) (#47)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:39:22 AM EST
    The two facts became clear to me at the same time.

    I tell you what I think. when I think it.

    In January, Obama was more electable, how was i to know what would happen to these two candidates in the meantime.

    [ Parent ]

    Well, it was clear to you Obama (5.00 / 2) (#230)
    by andrys on Tue May 27, 2008 at 03:54:26 AM EST
    was more electable.

      You are repeating what ObamaCamp hopes everyone will
    repeat.  It's over.  But I just wrote about this above.

      Think about why you're saying it.  It's a wish to get ahead of the results.  The sage thing -- going with what seems will happen, almost for sure.  There is so much danger in it when you know Obamacamp is really worried about why the SDs are hesitating and when Arianna is throwing a fit and having everyone write the SDs as a result.  The polls are certainly having an impact on a few SDs.  Who knows how many?

      And, again, with what is happening that I see on other websites following various investigations, it really is not over until August, but I know you mean the June 3-4 deadline after primaries.

      Even then, the SDs do not at all automatically make the magic total marker for Obama when Florida and Michigan are included; if they're not included, good-bye November and America's better future for 8 years.  Is it worth it to help the march of Obama that way?  It's a form of chant, which helps to set minds.

      So, please don't say this when it's not really over. "I feel it's over" would be more truthful and not something Obamacamp wants you to hypnotize the rest of us with.


    [ Parent ]

    Well, then I l eagerly look forward (3.00 / 2) (#99)
    by IndiDemGirl on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:03:52 AM EST
    to your post 6 months from now saying you were wrong about Obama - that he has become a much better candidate than you had anticipated.

    [ Parent ]
    Actually, in 6 months he will be (5.00 / 4) (#151)
    by JavaCityPal on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:24:15 AM EST
    saying, "Wow, I really didn't believe Hillary would get the nomination. President H. Clinton has made history in more ways than one."


    [ Parent ]
    That makes two of us (none / 0) (#108)
    by andgarden on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:05:52 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Ok (none / 0) (#130)
    by Edgar08 on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:14:33 AM EST
    I still don't know where the line exists between getting to say what I think and avoiding unnecessary conflict.

    I know I might have just implied you might not be honest there, and I apologize.

    But the fact that you are being as honest as you always are about the things that you think doesn't make me feel any better about the comment.

    It still bugs me just as much.  I don't like it.  Others seem to.

    I don't know what problems are solved by Irony.


    [ Parent ]

    It's strange and sad (5.00 / 4) (#119)
    by daria g on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:09:33 AM EST
    Not saying this to BTD who's always been fair and honest here, but elsewhere.. suddenly some in the media seem interested in all the sexism and vitriol pervading the coverage of Hillary, all the constant pushing for her to quit (it started after Iowa for crying out loud!).  Where was this concern about the sexist bashing and piling on from at least October until now, the revelation to other pundits that MSNBC (aside from Scarborough and a few conservatives) has been completely in the tank for Obama?

    Maybe people like that jerk Fineman weren't lying when they said they'd respect her again if only she would, you know, just LOSE like they want her to.  Not that she's lost yet but they mostly think it's over.  (I disagree, but.. another day.)  Maybe they feel good about deciding things for the public by beating the hell out of the best and most qualified candidate, I don't know.

    [ Parent ]

    Fishy (5.00 / 2) (#241)
    by margph on Tue May 27, 2008 at 05:04:45 AM EST
    I'm with you, Edgar08.  It smells a little fishy that all this praise for Clinton feels like an obituary.  I will say it again, it is not over until the delegates vote or until she drops her candidacy.  Does it feel like you're being had here?

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks, we all make mistakes (5.00 / 7) (#53)
    by themomcat on Tue May 27, 2008 at 12:44:21 AM EST
    in judgment. No one is ever right all the time. I have watched HRC since her days as First Lady. I closely followed her NY campaign as she went from county to county convincing hardcore Republicans that she could do the job. I have meet with her on many occasions about issues ranging from health care to international patents. There were never any notes in front of her and her knowledge on the issue was incredible. If she didn't have an answer, she said so and got back to me.
     Obama was attractive but with all the media hype he was getting no one was looking very deep. Even the DNC didn't vet him very well and shame on them if the Democrats do not take the White House in November. The problem now is that it is obvious from the states that HRC has won, the electoral map and polling numbers from reliable polls, HRC is the stronger candidate against McCain. HRC and her supporters have known this from the start,Will the DNC and the SD's recognize this fact before it's too late?
     It is good to see that someone as knowledgeable as you recognizes what has been staring at us for weeks. She is very electable and would be one fantastic President, even Bill knows that.
     

    [ Parent ]
    agree (5.00 / 2) (#156)
    by urduja on Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:25:46 AM EST
    I saw HRC give a commencement speech in the 1990s following Annette Bening and Mayor Willie Brown in SF (and other people I don't remember). On the spot, she seemlessly integrated what everyone said previously into her speech. I came away quite impressed with her quick mind (and h