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Denial And The 50 State Strategy

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:18:32 AM EST
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Remember the heady days of Obama Mania when he was going to compete in all 50 states and change politics as we know it? Well, we know those pipe dreams are over. It is now fashionable in the Obama blogs to discuss the grief stages for Hillary Clinton supporters as she is very unlikely to be the Democratic nominee. I am struck by how that process is playing with Obama supporters' faith in Obama's ability to compete in 50 states. First there was denial that primary results meant anything for the general election. When that became too silly a position to maintain, they began lashing out in anger at people who pointed out Obama's difficulties in important swing states. Now we have reached the bargaining stage. Charles Blow bargains for Obama's electability in today's NYTimes:

Obama is unlikely to win the heart of Appalachia in the general election, but he may not need to if he can make up ground on its northern frontier. If he wins New York and Pennsylvania (he lost both in the primaries) and flip-flopping Ohio (another primary loss) he will be in good position.

The electoral votes of the other heavily Appalachian states could be offset. For instance, if he wins Virginia (where a corner sits in Appalachia and which seems to be in play although it hasn't swung Democratic in more than 40 years) and Florida (which almost swung — or maybe did swing — Democratic in 2000), he will have won more electoral votes than in Tennessee, North Carolina, Kentucky and West Virginia combined.

(Emphasis supplied.) There is nothing more ironic to me than to read that winning Ohio and Florida will solve Obama's "Appalachian" problem. In case Mr. Blow is not familiar with the current polling, John McCain beats Barack Obama handily in both Ohio and Florida. Hillary Clinton beats McCain handily in both these states. It is the heart of her electability argument.

To be fair, Obama has a much better electability argument than that presented by Charles Blow. I have presented it myself. It is the Horace Greeley plan -Go West (and Midwest). Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada. Of course Obama needs to hold Michigan and Pennsylvania and the rest of the Kerry states under all scenarios. And if he can flip Ohio, he will be assured of the Presidency. Indeed, Obama is the favorite to be our next President.

But it is quite funny to see the 5 stages of grief that the Obama supporters love to use to mock Hillary Clinton supporters being so central to the acceptance by Barack Obama supporters of the death of the dream of 60% of the vote, 400 electoral votes and a 50 state Presidential strategy.

By Big Tent Democrat

< Colorado State Convention Gets Underway | The Logic Of Clinton's Argument To the Superdelegates >

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    • Display: Sort:
    Denial And The 50 State Strategy | 224 comments (224 topical)
    Charles Blow presents a lot of "ifs" (5.00 / 3) (#1)
    by Josey on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:32:31 AM EST


    A Bridge Too Far (5.00 / 7) (#41)
    by Fabian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:00:26 AM EST
    Any plan that relies on everything going right is not a good plan.

    [ Parent ]
    Heh. (5.00 / 2) (#45)
    by Cal on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:03:56 AM EST
    I drove my kids crazy saying that when they were growing up. Now they thank me.

    [ Parent ]
    I watched the movie. (5.00 / 2) (#52)
    by Fabian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:10:50 AM EST
    It sparked an interest in military strategy and strategy in general.  

    [ Parent ]
    Another good one... (5.00 / 4) (#66)
    by magisterludi on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:30:43 AM EST
     Poor planning on your part does not constitute an emergency on mine. That drives teenagers cra-zy!


    [ Parent ]
    That Was One Of My Favorites When I (5.00 / 2) (#82)
    by MO Blue on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:51:23 AM EST
    was working in corporate America.

    [ Parent ]
    Kind Of Reminds You Of Bush's Plan For (5.00 / 7) (#61)
    by MO Blue on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:25:19 AM EST
    the invasion of Iraq. Plan A equals being greeted with flowers and candy. Throw all dissenting opinions and requests for post invasion strategy or contingency plans out the window. Label people who disagree as stupid or traitors . Do nothing to develop a Plan B or correct the situation, just change a few faces and everything will be just fine.

    [ Parent ]
    We must really try to stop doing that. (5.00 / 2) (#74)
    by Fabian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:36:31 AM EST
    Even if we are tempted by the endless opportunities to compare the two.  Especially if.

    I just can't imagine anything that would enrage an Obama supporter than to compare their choice to you-know-who.  It's only because I'm still a registered Democrat that I don't name names.

    [ Parent ]

    Obama supporters enraged? (5.00 / 3) (#107)
    by waldenpond on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:21:13 AM EST
    I'm just curious... Obama supporters say it's the math, he's inevitable.... Why is how they react relevant.  I don't think the Obama supporters are the concern here.  If he's got the nomination, why are they so .. 'angry'?  I wonder why they aren't moving to the GE and supporting downticket races.  All of these new voters in the party and they choose to spend their time slapping at Clinton supporters.  Why aren't they out donating and supporting other candidates?

    Frankly, I could care less how any Obama supporter feels.

    [ Parent ]

    If Obama wins (none / 0) (#119)
    by Fabian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:34:00 AM EST
    I hope Hillary campaigns for him in the style we've become accustomed to.

    Because every time people see her, they'll think  "Wow!  Why isn't she nominee?"  and every time they'll see Obama they'll think  "Looks good, sounds good, but there's just something missing."  and then they'll think about Hillary and realize what it is.

    Actually, I expect they'd push Hillary to woo her base far in the hinterlands, far far away from the media eye.  Obama will be testing his Media Darling status as the Republicans gear up the Mighty Wurlitzer.  

    [ Parent ]

    I Agree That Bill And Hillary Will Be Disspatched (none / 0) (#137)
    by MO Blue on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:47:46 AM EST
    to the hinterlands to try and convince people there to support Obama. I'm just not sure how successful they will be no matter how hard they try. Maybe, I am just putting too much weight on how I feel about this. As far as I'm concerned if Obama isn't willing to work to get my vote, Hillary is not going to get it for him. He will be the president and he is the one I have to trust will work for my interests.

    [ Parent ]
    If nothing else (5.00 / 1) (#146)
    by Fabian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:55:50 AM EST
    She and Bill can educate the voters.  People do like being treated like they are intelligent and capable of understanding the issues.

    Can they win enough votes for Obama?  It really depends on Obama, doesn't it?  There's always a chance that if they don't they will be blamed for not "delivering" their base for Obama.  Predictable really, since the IATCF! meme will never die.

    [ Parent ]

    Win enough votes (5.00 / 1) (#181)
    by Arcadianwind on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:58:06 PM EST
    for obama? No, I don't think so. Only a few of his negatives are partially fixable, the rest are character and judgment flaws, intrinsic stuff that cannot be cleaned up. Pretending does not help at all.

    PR can only do so much; in the case of "total warfare" (as in the GE) it has quite limited functionality. Fighting real battles with paper armies and imaginary rules is a recipe for disaster....

    [ Parent ]

    That might as well be (5.00 / 2) (#77)
    by Arcadianwind on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:42:00 AM EST
    the O campaign theme.

    Let's all just ignore the "Panzers" in Arnhem while we are at it, oh, and lets do a paratroop drop in the daylight, great idea!

    A Bridge Too Far--good film--good campaign theme....

    The Dems can forget about winning OH, FL, MO, AK, WV and IN, if the nom is Obama, period. PA and MI are not in reach for him either.

    If "Operation Market Garden" was a deeply flawed plan, then I'm sure it looked better on paper than a Dem win in November with this absurdly flawed plan/candidate.

    [ Parent ]

    That's AR (none / 0) (#81)
    by Arcadianwind on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:48:20 AM EST
    not AK.

    [ Parent ]
    That's (5.00 / 3) (#84)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:55:42 AM EST
    the crux of the problem. Obama has more ways to lose than win.

    His western strategy might be a sellable option if he wasn't running against John McCain. How can anyone think that he's going to beat a regional candidate out there.

    The whole scenario is based on some awfully false assumptions.

    [ Parent ]

    His Western Strategy, (none / 0) (#186)
    by Arcadianwind on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:24:45 PM EST
    yeah, that should work well.

    Maybe even as good as the Maginot Line.

    Maybe some of us should get together, and compile a list of awfully false assumptions. Many here have already begun the task, it seems.

    We could go state by state, and draw a composite view based on: demographics, change in demographics from say, 96, polls vs results for the last 3 GEs, anecdotal evidence, trend lines, graphing strengths and weaknesses of each candidate, gut feel, issues identification, economic factors, current polls, and other sundry instruments.

    Then present our conclusions to the SDs.

    [ Parent ]

    Quite funny indeed. The bargaining stage (5.00 / 4) (#2)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:33:18 AM EST
    is always the most amusing.  I love the term "heavily Appalachian".  I expect to see "Appalachiness" appear on the Colbert Report soon.

    Really, if they want to say redneck, just say redneck. People are proud of their southern mountain heritage, and have a sense of humor about it.  Jeff Foxworthy made a whole career out of it.  If you won't vote for Barack Obama, you might be a redneck.

    "IF he wins Virginia and FL" - well, as long as that's the plan, I guess I won't worry anymore.  HA.

    Your Go West plan is a lot smarter.  Too soont o see how likely it is to work, but they should be arguing for its virtuws rather than make fools of themselves hoping for OH and FL, or even VA  to come their way.

    Reneck to me means Southern hick -- (5.00 / 8) (#27)
    by jawbone on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:49:41 AM EST
    "Hillbilly" is more Applachian hick. But, then, I'm from the Upper Midwest originally and now ive in NJ, so I may be revealing the smugness of my regional upbriging.

    What's being pointed out in both cases is the "hickness" of the people. A strong sense that they are of the lower and wrong class.

    Northerners referencing Clinton as "Bubba" was not a gentle joke -- it was meant to point out he came from Arkansas and was of the lower classes. He was both redneck and hillbilly, in their eyes. Educated as he might be, Rhodes sholar that he was, he was being told he could not escape his roots. And elites strongly felt their elitism threatened by this man. Probably by Jimmie Carter as well.

    [ Parent ]

    That was Carter the peanut farmer framing (5.00 / 4) (#53)
    by Cream City on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:11:45 AM EST
    instead of Carter the nuclear physicist.  You called it.

    [ Parent ]
    When I was making WV GOTV calls (5.00 / 3) (#59)
    by samanthasmom on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:22:59 AM EST
    with my strong NE accent, I would let the people on the line know how proud I was that my dad was from WV. A couple of the guys told me some cute redneck jokes. They were proud of who they are and enjoyed poking some good natured fun at themselves. I think Bill Clinton wears his "Bubba"title with pride.

    [ Parent ]
    My officemate is from WV (5.00 / 2) (#67)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:30:57 AM EST
    and I have learned a lot from her.  She too tells the redneck jokes and tells funny stories about her old home, which she clearly loves.  Her husband is her WV college sweetheart and they have a lot of family up there, with a never ending supply of funny stories.  

    I'm from Illinois originally, and have lived out west mostly until I moved here to FL, so this part of the country has been a new experience for me.

    [ Parent ]

    I'm interested and amused by the perceived need (5.00 / 1) (#60)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:24:36 AM EST
    to come up with this new euphemism 'Appalachian'.   They know that 'redneck', 'hick', 'bubba', etc are all not really positive terms, despite the fact that they are sometimes used affectionately.  So they think they are safe by referring to people by some kind of geographical designation instead.

    The lengths we go to to avoid saying what we really mean. I know we all do it, including myself.  I sincerely do hope that if Obama is president we really can start having more honest conversations.

    [ Parent ]

    Well Obama Did Say What He Really Meant (5.00 / 2) (#64)
    by MO Blue on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:27:19 AM EST
    in SF. He just didn't think that it would become public knowledge.

    [ Parent ]
    Ha. (5.00 / 1) (#69)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:32:52 AM EST
    Yes, some things are better said in a non-election year.  and not behind people's back, to people who think they are better than the people you are talking about.

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe but I seriously doubt it (5.00 / 1) (#72)
    by RalphB on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:36:09 AM EST
    I sincerely do hope that if Obama is president we really can start having more honest conversations.

    From all I've seen in the campaign so far, if Obama becomes president any disagreement with a policy or action might just be because you're a racist.  You couldn't honestly disagree with the Precious.  That's as bad as Bush using the support the troops crap to knock down criticism of him for years.


    [ Parent ]

    "holding the troops hostage" (5.00 / 1) (#124)
    by Fabian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:37:53 AM EST
    became the apparent strategy in 2007.

    If Obama makes it to the White House (very doubtful unless the GOP implodes) then we'll hear about POTUS Obama leading a Unified America boldly into the future and anyone who disagrees will be told that they are "holding America back" and "disrespecting their fellow citizens".  "racist" is just so yesterday.

    [ Parent ]

    That is what I fear (none / 0) (#78)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:42:21 AM EST
    and why I said 'hope' instead of 'think'.

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe obama will just refer to the entire (5.00 / 1) (#94)
    by PssttCmere08 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:09:10 AM EST
    electorate as sweeties.

    [ Parent ]
    I think redneck is more widespread (5.00 / 2) (#197)
    by daria g on Sat May 17, 2008 at 02:56:48 PM EST
    I'd even say it about rural Pennsylvania and Ohio, as well as other parts of Appalachia too.. and "hillbilly" would just by virtue of the name only work for those folks who actually live in mountainous regions.  I don't know too well if Southerners or Midwesterners from rural areas would call themselves rednecks too.

    Having grown up in Appalachia myself.. I say "redneck" or "hillbilly" in an affectionate way & I guess with a bit of irony.. because I know what it's about.  It's quite different if the news media from out of town do a report which is basically "look at these crazy rednecks" or if you perceive a politician looks at you with detachment as a curious specimen of a crazy redneck.  :)  I think a big part of the attitude I picked up on from growing up in small town Appalachia is not thinking or acting like you're better than anybody else, that is about the most offensive thing you can do. (It kind of sucks to be a nerd there.) And being a little over suspicious that outsiders ARE in fact thinking they're better than you.  So if news media or politicians come off as thinking they're better, hell no I will never vote for them, that's a #1 deal breaker.  I can see how Obama's "clinging to guns and religion" comment could've caused irreparable damage to his candidacy in the region.

    I love Bill Clinton and especially the great Clinton-is-a-redneck stories like him going jogging to the McDonald's, driving around a beat-up pickup truck with astroturf in the back.. he just doesn't fit in with the DC elites and that's kind of what makes him awesome.

    [ Parent ]

    Redneck (none / 0) (#172)
    by liminal on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:34:11 PM EST
    I know that the most popular explanation for the term is that agricultural workers got "red necks" from being sunburnt, but there is an alternative explanation: during the Battle of Blair Mountain (1921, the climax of the WVa mine wars), the striking union miners who were marching on the southern coalfields wore red bandannas to help identify each other and called themselves the "Red Neck Army."  

    So, I think redneck is a perfect term to describe people in Appalachia.

    [ Parent ]

    Goes back further than that-- (5.00 / 1) (#180)
    by Molly Pitcher on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:55:24 PM EST
    "In colonial times, they were often called rednecks and crackers by English neighbors. A letter to the Earl of Dartmouth included the following passage: 'I should explain ... what is meant by Crackers; a name they have got from being great boasters; they are a lawless set of rascalls on the frontiers of Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, and Georgia, who often change their places of abode.'[6]

    That from Wikipedia, which also says that some Scotch Presbyterians wore a piece of red to identify themselves before they left Scotland for Ireland and the US (my dad's people.)  Cracker, of course, became identified with Georgia (and maybe north Florida).

    [ Parent ]

    A Redneck is a farmer (none / 0) (#177)
    by Molly Pitcher on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:46:30 PM EST
    and could really be from anyplace with working farms.  You do know the term originated for the effect the sun had on the bared neck of the guy doing the hoeing?

    Now I am a hillbilly--family in ET mountains since 1792, at least.  I am not sure whether Bill qualifies as redneck or hillbilly; would depend on what land around Hope is like.  (You can't farm hillbilly land where the cows have to have short legs on one side--all the better to walk 'round the mountain.)

    A repub recently informed me that Bill was the most brilliant man to live in the WH for years (since Jefferson???).  And I believe Carter was a 'nucular' engineer from Annapolis?  Now he was a redneck peanut farmer (who laughed all the way to bank).

    [ Parent ]

    The farmers where I grew up in WI did have (none / 0) (#219)
    by jawbone on Sat May 17, 2008 at 04:50:01 PM EST
    sunburn on the backs of their necks, usually. Today, with the cabs on tracktors, maybe not so much.

    I got my red neck gardening.

    But, another term for people in Applachia used to be Scotch-Irish (or, more accurately Scots-Irish). Which I first heard, actually, when I began to learn about the music of the region during the folk music resurgence in the 60's-70's.

    I don't know all that much about my ancestors, but did hear that my maternal grandfather's people came from KY--and were slave holders, which always embarrassed me terribly. We stuck with the English/Cornish/Irish/Bohemian parts wer knew more about.

    [ Parent ]

    The Go West Plan (none / 0) (#189)
    by IzikLA on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:39:02 PM EST
    Which, truthfully, is really the only Obama plan that might work, is already bumping up a little roadblock with the fact that McCain is the nominee and has popularity out west.  That little roadblock could turn into a huge one if he chooses Romney as his running mate, which I think is a very distinct possibility.  

    I think, by choosing Romney, McCain burnishes his economic credentials nationally and keeps a lock on AZ, NV, NM, CO and even gives them a shot at MA.  I hardly want to mention CA because I live there and I just can't bring myself to think of that.  If Obama's plan relies on those states I just mentioned, and we all know they do, then Democrats are in serious trouble.  

    [ Parent ]

    The question for Mr. Blow (5.00 / 9) (#3)
    by andgarden on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:33:42 AM EST
    is as follows: if Obama is so weak in Appalachia, how is he going to win Ohio?

    Mr. Blow needs to look at previous maps of Ohio where Democrats won. He should show a winning map that doesn't have the characteristic "backwards c" for the Democratic winner. I believe there is not one.

    Ohio is probably not winnable for Democrats without strong (enough) Appalachian support. Obama doesn't have it (yet).

    I have now read two Charles Blow columns (5.00 / 9) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:36:24 AM EST
    By now it should be apparent to anyone that he does not know what he is talking about when it comes to politics.

    I suggest the NYTimes save him from further embarrassmnet and have him write about other subjects.

    [ Parent ]

    That's right, (5.00 / 5) (#11)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:39:00 AM EST
     he's the graphic artist.  I do hope they keep him around for comic relief.

    [ Parent ]
    Yep, he makes pretty maps (5.00 / 3) (#54)
    by Cream City on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:14:07 AM EST
    but doesn't make sense.  That previous column was so ignorant, too.

    The NYT is desperate for an AA op-ed columnist, and that is telling of the NYT.  There are many very smart AA columnists across the country that the NYT could hire.  But that's the problem -- they're from the rest of the country and not Noo Yawk cool.

    [ Parent ]

    Well, Bob Herbert is better (5.00 / 2) (#56)
    by andgarden on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:15:24 AM EST
    than half of their white columnists, so I think they just stink at selection in general.

    [ Parent ]
    Wish the NYT would invite real alternative voices (none / 0) (#108)
    by Ellie on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:23:22 AM EST
    In the frozen cultural tundra that has been the Bush / Cheney era, two areas that have been consistently strong and independent have been within alternative music (esp. the outer reaches of hip hop, ragga and spoken word) and editorial graphics.

    The NYT was being lazy -- Hey, there was this black dude in the can today ... let's get HIM! -- instead of inviting someone interesting, brainy and black if the last is really the first thing they want. I mean, if they wanted blackness as an attribute, why not Method Man, or Kanye, or Aaron McGruder, or Ursula Rucker, or ... gaaah, those aren't even fringe.

       

    [ Parent ]

    You would think the (5.00 / 4) (#14)
    by Stellaaa on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:41:57 AM EST
    name would have been a clue.  

    [ Parent ]
    Surname missing an 'S' perhaps ... ? n/t (none / 0) (#80)
    by Ellie on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:46:32 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    They asked their graphics designer (4.88 / 9) (#12)
    by andgarden on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:40:50 AM EST
    (and apparent Obama maniac) to do op-eds for them. What were they expecting?

    [ Parent ]
    I know (5.00 / 3) (#22)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:46:02 AM EST
    An incredibly bizarre editorial decision.

    He is ignorant of the most basic facts of this political campaign.

    [ Parent ]

    There are dozens of African American writers ... (none / 0) (#79)
    by Ellie on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:45:18 AM EST
    ... who'd easily think and write rings around this pap, but IMO the Obama campaign has become so innately indefensible using fresh thinking and phrases, the NYT pretty much has to use hacks to do it.

    TeamO relies excessively on the language of self-help to promote itself.

    (cf how many dozens of astro-trolls, spokesbots and oPods proceed from "I sense you're angry and ... " WTF? They have no ability to glean that and are spinning in this weird self-help program addicted fugue that Obama has offered himself as the cure to all itches. It doesn't p!ss me off so much as mildly freak me out: degree approximation, < breakdown of a major electronic item but > a pet hazard on a rug or upholstery.)

    [ Parent ]

    I just discovered he is African American (none / 0) (#85)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:57:50 AM EST
    I had no idea.

    [ Parent ]
    Yep. You're familiar with his grafix though (none / 0) (#92)
    by Ellie on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:06:58 AM EST
    Exquisite design sensibility, no?

    (So I'm an art snob. I admit it.)

    [ Parent ]

    Yes. Blow makes a common mistake of (5.00 / 8) (#9)
    by chancellor on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:37:46 AM EST
    thinking that "Appalachian voters" are centered in a geographic region. They're not.

    [ Parent ]
    Exactly. More migrated to Detroit (5.00 / 4) (#57)
    by Cream City on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:17:48 AM EST
    in the Great Migration than did AAs, I read in a history of that epoch.  To understand a massive part of the Michigan vote requires understanding that it is still part of the Appalachian heritage . . . just as many pockets of the Midwest were settled by other Southerners first, even in the 1800s -- and still reflect that heritage, too.  The lack of info about the regional origins of migratory Americans, the lack of recognition of how much that heritage still shapes their cultural values, shows how clueless so many analysts are (especially Eastern analysts, it seems).

    [ Parent ]
    Right: This is a key point missed by most (5.00 / 3) (#123)
    by Amileoj on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:35:57 AM EST
    ...who try to analyze regional politics in the U.S.  Each of the groups that initially settled one major region later migrated in substantial numbers into other regions, carrying their cultural patterns with them, and thereby shaping the eventual politics of those regions.  

    The Scots-Irish diaspora, for instance, as Jim Webb and others have pointed out, stretches (with gaps) nearly from coast to coast, and shapes much (though of course not all) of the cultural style of white working-class and rural America.  The places where it does not do so (e.g., Wisconsin, Minnesota) are places where BHO has done better with those groups.  

    This is why BHO does not just have an Appalachia problem: he has a problem with borderlands/mountain folk in general, and their (both literal and cultural) descendents, who are legion.  That is a much, much bigger problem to have, electorally-speaking, than a narrow regional weakness.  

    That is particularly so because this somewhat amorphous group is one of the major natural audiences for the economic populist message with which progressives have sought to combat the GOP's "social issues" appeals.  In this effort, the Obama campaign and supporters have apparently not yet assimilated Lincoln's classic lesson to the temperence movement: "You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar."

    [ Parent ]

    Wrong; Wisconsin is very Irish (none / 0) (#185)
    by Cream City on Sat May 17, 2008 at 01:22:31 PM EST
    and we're second only to Germans here.  

    What happened here was, in part, Republican crossover -- including by a lot of the Scots-Irish among the white-flighters from Milwaukee now -- having their fun with an open primary.  And there were other factors, but I won't go into them here again.  (They're in earlier posts of mine.)

    Btw, Wisconsin along the Mississippi was settled by a lot of Southerners, too, and that still shows there.  It's just not so simple to explain it here, important as heritage and origins are, when you get into the open primary factor and others.

    [ Parent ]

    appalachian voters are us! (5.00 / 1) (#159)
    by hellothere on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:11:27 PM EST
    the faster the obama campaign get that the better. the shame of it is they won't. anglachel has a good diary up on the northeast versus the rest of us today. she perceives a power play against the clinton bubbas. now isn't that just special! we are going down the tubes and the dems won't fight a turf war. yeah righ!

    [ Parent ]
    how does Obama get those voters? (5.00 / 6) (#24)
    by Josey on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:46:40 AM EST
    Appalachians are the voters he described to his Billionaire donors as racists, clinging to their guns and religion - and voting against their own best economic interest.

    On Tuesday, "those people" voted for their economic interests due to Hillary's excellent positions and leadership on the Economy.

    Obama responded to his brutal beating in WV by sporting a flag pin.

    [ Parent ]

    Not to mention a whole bunch more... (5.00 / 3) (#128)
    by jackyt on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:42:33 AM EST
    "anyone who votes for Hillary is a racist" stories oozing out anecdotally.

    [ Parent ]
    I was so offended by that (5.00 / 1) (#198)
    by daria g on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:02:15 PM EST
    And I can't even own a gun (DC) and do not go to church, but jeez.. on a level when I hear Obama make those comments, and Michelle give a speech saying Barack is going to challenge you and won't let you go back to being insular and closed minded, etc.. it kind of makes me want to go do all those things just to spite them.  And anyway if that's what he thinks about small town voters he needs to look in the mirror on who has a closed-mind problem.

    [ Parent ]
    Exactly (5.00 / 4) (#34)
    by pantsuit chic on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:54:07 AM EST
    There is no evidence that Obama can win Ohio.

    [ Parent ]
    Blow is a great name for him....he truly blows :) (none / 0) (#97)
    by PssttCmere08 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:10:22 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    It's so ironic b'coz charting's his Actual Job (none / 0) (#135)
    by Ellie on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:47:04 AM EST
    Your question is one he should have been able to answer easily, but appears to have taken great pains to avoid entirely.

    And is it just me or do I become increasingly dumber as the pro-Obama arguments get amped up in the media? I'm not just talking about feeling dumber having to address some of the intellectual dumpage that gets trolled here, or that I see in the public discourse.

    I try not to take references to my "type" or reductions of my motives and actions to idiocy personally, as I'm just a drip in the bucket and might be an anomaly. Yet I find much in common with many of the commentators here who ARE dismissed for reasons that are more based on bigotry than reality and merit.

    I'm so outside the cartoonish one-note stereotype of the pro-Clinton supporter as has been painted by the O-campaign with the help of short and long-pants media for the opportunity, IMO, to engage in unrestrained sexism and CDS that all of the above prefer to indulge rather than, you know, SOLVE PROBLEMS.

    And like many of the commentators I've read here, and based on their input, I'm so beyond the self-flattering glittering staircase of the prototypical Obama voter I really have to wonder who's counting the heads.

    Education, morning beverage, or economic "class" aside, I distinguish between owned and used intelligence and the merely purchased (dumb) kind that never gets taken out of the box.

    [ Parent ]

    Clinton has it, Obama doesn't (5.00 / 10) (#4)
    by pluege on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:34:25 AM EST
    its all comes down to electability: Clinton has it, Obama doesn't.

    The dem "leadership", the dem party in oh so terribly typical and familiar style refuses to face reality, instead preferring to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with the Obama pipe dream.

    And BTW (5.00 / 11) (#5)
    by andgarden on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:35:28 AM EST
    The way Hillary was ridiculed as looking for a "51% Presidency," um, can we apply the same logic to the nomination?

    heheh.

    Not just the nomination (5.00 / 7) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:37:01 AM EST
    We are hoping for an Obama 51% win in the general.

    [ Parent ]
    That's (5.00 / 1) (#89)
    by Ga6thDem on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:02:50 AM EST
    an awfully big hope IMO. Frankly after reading the article in Salon from Howard Deans former pollster it is beyong obvious that there's no way Obama can win the general election short of a McCain implosion.

    It think that he has zero chance with the working class voters after his SF statements and Rev. Wright. And that's all before all the other stuff to come out.

    [ Parent ]

    and there will be other stuff (5.00 / 1) (#136)
    by bigbay on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:47:06 AM EST
    or increased attention on things previously ignored

    Obama has said so many contradictory things over the last 8 years that he is a gold mine  for the Repugs. Even starting with his so-called Iraq War opposition.

    [ Parent ]

    Yes indeed (5.00 / 7) (#8)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:37:23 AM EST
    I'd be more convinced that he could expand the electoral map if he could have expanded the demographical map.

    [ Parent ]
    But the Indies... (5.00 / 3) (#17)
    by Stellaaa on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:42:59 AM EST
    the Republicans...remember them they are all crossing over Jordan.  

    [ Parent ]
    Everyone is crossing over (none / 0) (#117)
    by waldenpond on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:29:47 AM EST
    this time around.  People are disgusted with govt.  Voters are trying to send a message.  The people blame the Repubs for where we are and the Dems for not doing enough to stop it and for not doing anything now.

    This election was to bring the people back in to the process and actually get some things done.  What happened to that.

    It is going to be a desperate grab for an angry electorate.  I expect to see both parties finger pointing and saying 'you did it too'

    [ Parent ]

    there was a day maybe he could have (none / 0) (#165)
    by hellothere on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:15:56 PM EST
    done just that but the inherent weaknesses in his campaign have come out. the underlying associations with racial divisive figures, the tainted rezko group, the 60s bomb loving ayers. with a little thinking that could have been avoided and addressed very well in eight years. but the northeast power players wanted to drum out the southern bubbas way too much. you see it in the comments by the braziles and axelrods. we don't need them bullsxxx.

    [ Parent ]
    Why is it when BTD talks about Obama's (5.00 / 6) (#10)
    by bjorn on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:38:48 AM EST
    electability or strategy I really can get behind it?  Maybe it is because he is one of the few bloggers who has kept his head this election season and presented both sides with honest, objective data.  WHere have all the bloggers gone?? (remember the song, where have all the flowers gone...)   Anyway, thanks for staying sane and pushing the facts for both sides.  Your approach will help us unite, I only hope others will start to follow your lead.

    BTDs ideas are more realistic (5.00 / 7) (#19)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:44:33 AM EST
    and so are more convincing to me also.  We'd all love to see the west more blue, and there really is a better chance for it this year than ever before.

    It did not necessarily have to be at the expense of losing "Appalachia".

    When will they ever learn?  

    [ Parent ]

    And what of Flordia? (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Lahdee on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:40:54 AM EST
    Adam C. Smith at tampabay.com thinks Florida is ripe for Senator Obama. He advises the Senator
    "What we're seeing is the beginnings of a major sea change,'' said Mark Bubriski, spokesman for the Florida Democratic Party. "When you add up all of the major factors that go into the analysis of an election, everything is going the Democratic Party's way."

    Well, maybe not everything. There's that delegate debacle and primary boycott. You've got a lot of work to do introducing yourself in Florida and soothing the simmering resentment among many Democrats who claim they might not vote for you.

    The point, though, is that even amid controversy and zero attention by your folks, Democrats are gaining market share in this state.

    We are also reminded that the St. Petersburg Times presents St. Pete Times Forum for Obama on Wednesday.

    Obama can do his usual show of (5.00 / 3) (#16)
    by andgarden on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:42:20 AM EST
    $5M on ads in one week, and then he can still lose.
    Ugh!

    [ Parent ]
    The evidence of that sea change (5.00 / 7) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:43:36 AM EST
    is all in Adam Smith's mind. There is no sea change.

    Right now. Obama has NO CHANCE in Florida.

    [ Parent ]

    When the money is against you, (5.00 / 3) (#21)
    by andgarden on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:45:08 AM EST
    talk about polls, when the polls are against you, talk about trends. . .

    [ Parent ]
    What trends? (none / 0) (#23)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:46:33 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    When the local trends are against you (5.00 / 3) (#28)
    by andgarden on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:50:11 AM EST
    talk about the national trends, and vice versa.

    [ Parent ]
    What national trends? (none / 0) (#36)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:56:33 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Democrats are ascendent! (none / 0) (#38)
    by andgarden on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:58:15 AM EST
    Or haven't you gotten that memo? heh.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh they are (5.00 / 3) (#43)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:02:32 AM EST
    and they very well may carry Barack Obama across the finish line.

    It is ironic that the candidate who began his campaign running away from the Dem brand may win because of it.

    [ Parent ]

    I hope so (5.00 / 4) (#47)
    by andgarden on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:05:06 AM EST
    but I think he's actually quite compromised.

    We'll see.

    [ Parent ]

    Reverse Coattails (5.00 / 2) (#83)
    by BDB on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:54:55 AM EST
    You have to love that it looks like the democratic party is going to nominate someone the down-ticket candidates will have to try to carry across the finish line.

    I hope his money is worth it.

    [ Parent ]

    That is not fair of me (none / 0) (#20)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:44:40 AM EST
    He was quoting a Florida Democratic Party official, who has to put on a good face.

    My previous comment was unfair.

    [ Parent ]

    Plus (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by Step Beyond on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:56:45 AM EST
    I think he's talking about an overall attitude towards Repubs. Remember with Repubs running the state as well, the bad economy is a hard issue for them to deflect. And who doesn't have a couple of houses in their neighborhood in foreclosure now? Plus we have home insurance problems and huge budget cuts for the schools that everyone is talking about.

    Of course, the Dem party has worked hard to blow all the advantages by pissing off the loyal Dem voters. Its why it makes me so angry when Obama supporters talk about how they couldn't have won Florida anyway. A Dem could have won it, still might, but it will be the Dems fault if they don't.

    [ Parent ]

    Crist remains quite popular (5.00 / 1) (#44)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:03:17 AM EST
    The anti-GOP feeling is not nearly as strong on the LOCAL LEVEL in Florida.

    [ Parent ]
    Right (none / 0) (#49)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:06:57 AM EST
    I sense no specifically anti-Rep feeling on the ground here in FL.   Very much the 'a pox on both their houses' feeling dominates.

    [ Parent ]
    He does (none / 0) (#68)
    by Step Beyond on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:32:02 AM EST
    Crist is extremely popular. Thankfully they aren't running against him. But the legislature is Repub controlled as well. And they have been a HUGE disappointment to many people lately.

    They've done nothing with home insurance. Property taxes are still high. And they accidentally screwed up PIP last year. My local news commercials almost always have some local economy story on them - and not a pleasant one. Crist was even putting forth the idea of a gas tax holiday (sound familiar?).

    The Diaz-Balart v Martinez election was just changed to leans Repub I believe. Who would have ever considered that that seat would never be a cake walk for the Repubs.

    [ Parent ]

    I wonder (none / 0) (#216)
    by Nadai on Sat May 17, 2008 at 04:22:48 PM EST
    if McCain is considering him for VP.  He could certainly do worse than Crist.

    [ Parent ]
    Fluffing for Obama's impending visit (5.00 / 5) (#26)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:48:07 AM EST
    is all Mr Bubriski is doing.  The One has to be convinced of a warm welcome before he will bestow his blessed presence upon the sunshine state.

    If FL goes for Obama in Nov  I'll boil a bunny for dinner.

    [ Parent ]

    Ah (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by pantsuit chic on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:58:40 AM EST
    I'll boil a bunny for dinner.

    Oh, then you and Hillary aka Glenn Close will have something in common, at least in the eyes of the Obamaphiles.

    [ Parent ]

    Do not say that very loudly (5.00 / 1) (#62)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:25:59 AM EST
    We have a family of bunnies in our yard and they might hear you!

    [ Parent ]
    I won't (5.00 / 1) (#75)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:36:34 AM EST
    I almost said 'boil my golden retriever' but I was afraid he could read.

    Don't worry, all animals are safe with me.  I have a gator in the pond behind my house I  won't even call animal services on.

    [ Parent ]

    But is your dog (none / 0) (#171)
    by Molly Pitcher on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:24:48 PM EST
    safe with the gator?

    [ Parent ]
    I have a fence (none / 0) (#200)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:22:31 PM EST
    It is the bar style so I can still see the lake, but no gators can get in or dogs out - well I suppose they could if they tried real hard, but the dogs are content and the gators have easier food elsewhere!

    I was pretty scared of gators when I first moved here, but now I'm fascinated.  They are so primeval.

    [ Parent ]

    Exactly (none / 0) (#46)
    by ruffian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:04:11 AM EST
    I will boil in honor of Hillary because only she and Bill campaigning here will win FL for Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    Ack (5.00 / 2) (#35)
    by Lahdee on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:55:42 AM EST
    Florida not Flordia.
    I'm a moran.

    [ Parent ]
    But... (none / 0) (#40)
    by Cal on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:59:09 AM EST
    Are you a moran in all fifty states?

    [ Parent ]
    lol n/t (none / 0) (#42)
    by Lahdee on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:00:28 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Here's an awesome graphic to use (5.00 / 3) (#15)
    by annabelly on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:42:02 AM EST
    Against those condescending comments about stages of denial. (h/t Reclusive Leftist)

    http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3178/2498722291_03940192f6.jpg

    Feel free to use it.

    HA. That is funny! (none / 0) (#86)
    by leis on Sat May 17, 2008 at 10:58:32 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    People can have all sorts of expertise (5.00 / 3) (#25)
    by Klio on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:47:07 AM EST
    but this guy is the Times' visual op-ed columnist.  Nothing in the piece itself suggests we should give any credence to this "analysis."

    Oh, I loved his view that Appalachia was voting as a bloc -- certainly we've not seen that before this election cycle.  And his binary, the Dukes of Hazzard versus the Huxtables, was utterly charming.    I really don't like to scoff, but this was laughable.  The word shill comes to mind ....

    That binary (5.00 / 2) (#199)
    by daria g on Sat May 17, 2008 at 03:07:18 PM EST
    What kills me is, the columnist translates the polling into "Dukes of Hazzard versus the Huxtables" and tries to put those words in Hillary's mouth, when the writer is clearly the one with the prejudice issue.

    I've seen that time and time again in this primary.. people coming up with the wildest, most offensive racial/ethnic/class-based stereotypes all on their own and then whining "YOU made me think of this!"  

    [ Parent ]

    I agree with BTD analysis (5.00 / 3) (#29)
    by Andy08 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 09:50:25 AM EST
    modulo his conclusion

    Indeed, Obama is the favorite to be our next President.

    There is not much evidence of this in the current percentages of a McCain-Obama potential matchup.
    I live in MA and it is scary to see MA will be at play in November for the first time in ages!!
    McCain and Obama are in a statistical tie
    (Clinton wins it by big margin).

    And it won't change; Deval Patrick is very unpopular and his Adm. is a huge dissapointment to many that strongly voted for him.

    There is however strong evidence in a McCain-Clinton
    match up. So although the probability of Clinton the nomination is smallar than that of Obama it is not over yet: the SD canb change their minds and honestly do so all the way to convention day.

    So, the argument imho , should be: let us elect the strongest candidate to beat McCain in November and the one that is the most qualified to be our next President.That is HRC.

    It is not over but everyone needs to work positively to make SD understand this.

    By the way; please TAKE ACTION for Florida and Michigan to be counted.

    Write to the Commission meeting May 31 (click here)  and make
    the argument for seating the full delelgations and  for FL & MI to be part of
    the decision process that will decide our nominee.
    Seating the delegations "later" is a scam.

    Allow Florida and Michigan to be counted? (1.00 / 1) (#91)
    by TheKSG on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:06:19 AM EST
    I say we give them each one seat.  They can sit them where they please.  OR the Democrats in the state can impeach and remove all of the legislators who were at all involved in moving the date up.  In which case they get half of their delegates.  

    There has to be some price to be paid for cheating, and unfortunately for the people, the representative that they voted in were the ones who did the cheating (the people of the state probably should have made a bigger fuss about this before the election).  Otherwise, if I was California, I'd move my next primary to December.  No other states would even need to bother having a primary.

    [ Parent ]

    Okay (5.00 / 3) (#101)
    by Steve M on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:15:15 AM EST
    What should New Hampshire's penalty be?  Some price has to be paid, right?

    [ Parent ]
    Great Strategy (5.00 / 3) (#102)
    by MO Blue on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:16:08 AM EST
    Gift wrap FL and possibly MI and hand it to McCain. After McCain is sworn into office in January, the Dems can hold their heads up high and say they stood firm on penalizing voters. They couldn't stand firm on Iraq, habeas caucus, torture or FISA but boy could they stand firm on disenfranchising voters.  

    [ Parent ]
    Nobody Loves a Noble Loss (5.00 / 2) (#114)
    by BDB on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:27:13 AM EST
    quite like the Democratic Party.  

    And, honestly, what are they fighting for - so NH and IA can keep their undeserved place at the front of the pack.  Here's an idea, instead of using a strategy designed to lose the WH, why doesn't the party take the next four years to fix its primary schedule so that it's fair to all 50 states, not just 2.

    [ Parent ]

    I Would Like To Hear What Actions They Have Taken (5.00 / 1) (#147)
    by MO Blue on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:00:24 PM EST
    just to correct the problems in the 2000 and 2004 elections. What have they done to make sure that the AA communities will have enough voting places and machines so that they are not forced to stand in line for hours just to be able to vote? If they are excepting a record turn out in the AA communities (reasonable expectation), will they be able to vote without jeopardizing their job(s) or leaving their family untended?

    [ Parent ]
    Yes (5.00 / 1) (#156)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 12:07:23 PM EST
    And in how many presidential elections can the Democrats afford to lose Florida?  Maybe Florida voters won't hold a grudge past this election, but maybe they will, if they're bulldogs like me.

    Obama supporters really need to come to terms with the fact that you can't penalize (or insult) voters and expect them to vote for your candidate.  Some people just don't care about joining onto the cool thing.

    [ Parent ]

    Yes! (5.00 / 2) (#110)
    by BDB on Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:25:35 AM EST
    Democratic party rules about primary schedules are so much more important than winning in November.   Screw Florida and Michigan and their 44 electoral votes.  We've got Iowa and we're pretty sure we're kind of, maybe going to win Colorado.  That's 16 EVs right there.  That'll show 'em.

    If the democratic nominee loses Michigan, the democratic nominee won't be president.  It's that simple.  And before you tell me how Obama is going to win MI, the polls for him there have been almost entirely within the margin of error against McCain and the last two have McCain up by one.  Sure, he can lose Florida and still win, but he can't lose Florida and Michigan, and even just losing Florida means an awful lot of other things have to go his way.


    [ Parent ]

    What should (5.00 / 1) (