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WV Prediction Thread

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:12:45 PM EST
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Demography is political destiny. In West Virginia too. There are turnout issues in that the Media has portrayed the race as over. Obama has spent plenty of money in WV and I am sure the Obama camp will be working overtime to get their voters out.

My speculation, 6% of the vote will be A-A and Obama wins 90% of that vote. The remaining 94% goes 67-33 Clinton. Thus, the final score will be 64-36 Clinton. A 28 point win. The Obama memo predicted a 12 point Clinton win. What is your guess?

By Big Tent Democrat

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    WV Prediction Thread | 222 comments (222 topical)
    Obama's (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:15:48 PM EST
    spreadsheet sure has been wrong lately hasn't it?

    Something about the press (5.00 / 1) (#180)
    by ghost2 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:51:42 PM EST
    They act as if Hillary has to defy the polling prediction in order to provide a shock.  If the polling average is +5 for her, they act like she needs to win by +15 (we have had this in PA, IN, and NC).

    On the other hand, if we have another NH, and she overperforms the polls, they'd cry Bradley effect.

    There is no way to win with these a--h--es.  

    [ Parent ]

    Yeah, its been pretty crappy all along (none / 0) (#206)
    by jimotto on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:07:17 PM EST
    Maryland O53-C46
    Virginia O50-C48
    DC O57-C41
    Wisconsin O53-C46
    ...

    [ Parent ]
    70,000 voted early (5.00 / 3) (#2)
    by Cream City on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:17:19 PM EST
    according to the AP, a record in early voting.  And a lot of that was before Obama's and the media's attempt to shut down turnout.

    And reports of turnout today are good, too, and with good weather.  So I think Clinton is on track to do as well as you predict.  (And that means another sign that the Obama campaign is overconfident, as has been evident before about its internal memo.)

    obama supporters, ignore this (5.00 / 5) (#57)
    by hellothere on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:56:27 PM EST
    message today from the voters at your candidate's peril. this trashing of good people, threats, etc will not fly in the face of the american people's will. win/win is so much smarter than win/lose general due to ego and negativity.

    [ Parent ]
    When the press turns on Obama (5.00 / 5) (#134)
    by Iris on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:31:25 PM EST
    expect them to blame Hillary.

    [ Parent ]
    It's not at Obama's peril (2.00 / 4) (#167)
    by Electa on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:43:56 PM EST
    but rather the peril of America if you all give McCain the presidency.  And, it will be you who gives him the GE should he win.  And, please be clear, the majority of African Americans did not vote for Obama because he's Black, but rather because of his phenominal ability to draw such a diverse group of Americans together.  Afterall, it's only been 400 plus years of racial divide.  I think we're ready for this madness to end.  Won't you join hands with us to let healing begin?

    [ Parent ]
    please don't come on here with such (5.00 / 4) (#177)
    by hellothere on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:49:45 PM EST
    commentary you can't prove. sure the aa voters didn't consider the color of his skin! yeah right. and if you think the madness is ending, then i have a bridge in brooklyn i'd like you to buy.

    i didn't mention race here, you did. i am concerned about the lack of experience he has. i am concerned about his attiude toward a number of issues. so please stick to the topics. when i talk about peril, i am talking about disgusted voters leaving the party, afterall we are told our votes are no longer needed.

    [ Parent ]

    Who says your votes aren't needed? (2.00 / 1) (#209)
    by Electa on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:08:59 PM EST
    And, as a double A, I'm pretty aware of where Blacks stand on this election.  Us not so hard working class blacks do talk about these things at the water cooler, on break, standing on the broom, or while we're hiding in the utility closets.

    [ Parent ]
    Electa (5.00 / 2) (#210)
    by DJ on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:12:12 PM EST
    Donna Brazille said to say "working class" was to ignore and diss the "black working class"   You can't have it both ways.  Oh I forgot...Obama Rules.

    [ Parent ]
    Right Electa (5.00 / 1) (#200)
    by kmblue on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:04:20 PM EST
    Too late.  You revealed your true nature downthread.

    [ Parent ]
    Sure it is (5.00 / 2) (#213)
    by JavaCityPal on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:14:37 PM EST
    Obama didn't campaign in WVA. Fox just announced some interesting exit poll numbers:

    On the issue of "Trustworthy"

    51% said Obama is  not trustworthy
    36% said Clinton is not trustworthy

    If I've said it once, I've said it 1000 times, Hillary's credibility and trustworthy numbers are the direct result of Obama's negative campaigning. This poll makes me even more certain of that.

    [ Parent ]

    Electa, I beg to differ.... (5.00 / 3) (#223)
    by NO2WONDERBOY on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:32:02 PM EST
    but, what do you call 92-93% of Black vote going to Obama, CONSISTENTLY?

    A good friend of mine who up to this election, was 150% pro Clinton, told me that in spite of her loyalty towards the Clintons, she WAS VOTING COLOR AND SO WAS HER FAMILY (25 MEMBERS 18+ YEARS OLD)! Racism, my dear, is much more prominent among blacks than among whites, which by the way it is the reason why Obama has gotten whites' votes.

    It is NOT his "phenomenal ability to draw such a diverse group of Americans together", it is that other "diverse" groups, but especially whites, HAVE GOTTEN OVER IT (the issue of race).

    The truth is the majority of blacks haven't. I teach an inner city high school in New Orleans, and I am constantly aghast at the prejudice and racist attitudes towards not only whites, but Hispanics and Asians. You have no idea, or maybe you do, how many countless times I have been told to get on a boat and go back to my country, or offer to take me to the river so I can swim back to my country (BTW, I am a United States citizen of Spanish U.S. Naturalized citizen parents)  

    [ Parent ]

    That's a huge early turn out. (none / 0) (#11)
    by Salo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:22:38 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Edwards is expected to take 4% of the vote (none / 0) (#32)
    by JavaCityPal on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:36:12 PM EST
    I just heard on Fox that he's still on the ticket, and expected to take votes, which are considered a vote against Obama, from what they said.


    [ Parent ]
    So this (none / 0) (#35)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:37:21 PM EST
    is how they've set it up? All the votes in WV that aren't Obama's are anti Obama? Interesting.

    [ Parent ]
    did you see the (none / 0) (#123)
    by Salo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:27:44 PM EST
    unity pony painting of obama?

    it's odd.

    [ Parent ]

    It's Fox! (none / 0) (#83)
    by Lahdee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:10:04 PM EST
    I wouldn't expect, "It's a lovely day and HC's supporters gave her the thumbs up, no racism from us wonderful folks at the F&B network, just facts as we see them."
    It's Fox trolling. That's what they do.

    [ Parent ]
    I am betting you will be wrong (5.00 / 2) (#154)
    by waldenpond on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:38:21 PM EST
    about Fox's attitude.  They will cover 'what it all means' for Obama but.....  Fox wants to get Clinton supporters for McCain.  I believe they will spend time defending reasons Clinton supporters do not vote for Obama than the other networks.  I imagine they won't call them derogatory terms as I expect CNN or MSNBC to do.  Fox's line is that Clinton supporters have been dismissed and denigrated.  I am not saying Fox will not be negative to a Dem.. pfft.  I am saying the balance between Fox's coverage and the other networks will be interesting.  

    Watch Fox's language towards Clinton and Clinton's supporters and compare it to the other networks.

    I will wait to see the coverage of the three cable networks.

    [ Parent ]

    MSNBC, CNN (5.00 / 1) (#161)
    by JavaCityPal on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:41:06 PM EST
    will be McCain come GE, I would expect. All the information that's been ignored during this primary will be serious news come September.

    [ Parent ]
    Fox's attitude (none / 0) (#195)
    by Lahdee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:00:38 PM EST
    Perhaps. I'm saying that it's Fox's modus operandi to drive a wedge wherever possible, if that wedge happens to contain a tinge of racism so be it.
    I do agree, however, that it behooves them to drive Clinton supporters from Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    Not against Obama, haven't Accepted... (none / 0) (#204)
    by Exeter on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:07:09 PM EST
    Obama as their lord and savior; )

    [ Parent ]
    Depends... (5.00 / 1) (#6)
    by masslib on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:20:41 PM EST
    BO has spent a week trying to depress Hill's support for the last week by running around after losing his neighboring state and crowning himself King.  

    Deadbeat Dem (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by Athena on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:20:54 PM EST
    Obama is a deadbeat Dem - wanting votes despite paying no attention to the voters.  

    MIA and wanting to be loved.  Sure sign of a messianic complex.

    And that gritty, irritating Hillary - pretending like these voters really matter!

    She will get the overwhelming win that she deserves.

    It would be interesting to see (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by Salo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:21:10 PM EST
    if the attitudes and ballot box returns of the Appalachian region were decisive in most Presidential elections...or even in the "epoch" making shifts in American politrical culture.  I get a feeling they were a key constituency in the FDR years.

    They certainly seem to have been decisive in the last two elections and they maky have had the same effect with Bill Clinton.  he won all up and down the spine of that mountain range.

    According to the Clinton Memo Today (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by BDB on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:31:41 PM EST
    No democrat has become president without winning W. Virginia since 1916.  Obviously Gore "won" but did not become President.  Given that virtually all of W. Va. is Appalachia, that's not surprising because that region is an important one is surrounding swing states.

    [ Parent ]
    Technically correct... (none / 0) (#64)
    by mike in dc on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:59:08 PM EST
    ...but since Carter lost the W. Va. primary, one can lose the primary and still win the state in the general.  

    [ Parent ]
    Uh (5.00 / 1) (#73)
    by Steve M on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:03:26 PM EST
    Carter didn't even PARTICIPATE in the WV primary in 1976.  Robert Byrd was running and he got 89% of the vote.

    Do you think that might have been relevant information to consider in your argument?

    [ Parent ]

    Byrd (5.00 / 1) (#91)
    by Salo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:12:13 PM EST
    got Obamaian levels of support.

    [ Parent ]
    Salo... (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by lambert on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:22:38 PM EST
    ... I wish you'd cros-post the Kipling parody over at my place....

    You have my permission to (none / 0) (#12)
    by Salo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:23:54 PM EST
    rob me blind.

    i'll not sue.  infact I think Kiplings people are after me now. I only changed a few words you know.

    [ Parent ]

    Will the maker of Efflexor sue (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by oculus on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:25:07 PM EST
    the McCain campaign?

    [ Parent ]
    eh? (none / 0) (#28)
    by kredwyn on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:34:28 PM EST
    Kipling has people? Who knew?

    [ Parent ]
    like "Smiley's People." (none / 0) (#39)
    by Salo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:38:47 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Where shall we search for this (none / 0) (#34)
    by oculus on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:36:58 PM EST
    :Creative Class" effort?

    [ Parent ]
    35-40 pt win for Clinton. (5.00 / 2) (#13)
    by andgarden on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:24:18 PM EST


    Wow. (none / 0) (#16)
    by oculus on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:25:26 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Look at (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by andgarden on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:28:39 PM EST
    Washington, Greene, and Fayette counties in PA.

    [ Parent ]
    My (5.00 / 1) (#220)
    by sas on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:25:44 PM EST
    old home county, Washington, went 75-25 for Hillary  Washington, PA, the county seat is situated about halfway between Pittsburgh and Wheeling  It used to be one of the most solidly Democratic regions in the country  Home of coal mines, steel, molybdenum (used to harden steel), and glass factories  

    I love that region,  People are the salt of the earth, real hard workers.  

     I expect the same numbers in West Virginia tonight.  

    I'm going to go with 70-30 Hillary.

    [ Parent ]

    I agree. (none / 0) (#18)
    by ahazydelirium on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:26:19 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I just hope there's no shenanigans with the voting (5.00 / 3) (#101)
    by derridog on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:18:19 PM EST
    process. The Lake County "delay" in Indiana made me very nervous.
    They didn't steal it, but they may have made it closer just to take away Hillary's bragging rights and install their guy.

    I wish someone would reassure me on this point. Does WVA use electronic voting machines?

    [ Parent ]

    I hope it's at least 30 (none / 0) (#160)
    by ChuckieTomato on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:40:13 PM EST
    A 30 point loss is not easily explained away.

    [ Parent ]
    west virginia is irrelevant (5.00 / 2) (#19)
    by Turkana on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:28:12 PM EST
    haven't you heard?

    If the media convinces the (5.00 / 2) (#30)
    by oculus on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:35:18 PM EST
    public of this, I'll have to admit that yes, Obama is the media darling.  

    [ Parent ]
    You won't have to. (5.00 / 3) (#90)
    by madamab on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:12:06 PM EST
    The media has been declaring it over for Clinton since late 2007. I found that out on a recent search of teh Google on an unrelated matter.

    If the media ruled, Obama would have gotten to the magic number by now.

    [ Parent ]

    Perhaps (5.00 / 3) (#110)
    by JavaCityPal on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:20:48 PM EST
    the people of WV are so accustomed to hearing this from the media that Obama's decision to snub them this round of campaigning went completely unnoticed....or, they thought they deserved it and Hillary was just pandering to their sorry souls out of desperation.

    There is no doubt his momentum has left rubber on the road with how fast the brakes were slammed. 39% of his own supporters are saying she should stay in the race. That probably doesn't mean 100% of them are sufferring from buyer's remorse, but I'll bet a good share of them are.

    [ Parent ]

    West Va (5.00 / 3) (#20)
    by Pat Johnson on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:28:20 PM EST
    What a lot of these voters are saying right now is that they do not want Obama.  That is why this race is only separates the two by 1%.  Why should she step aside.  I happen to think there is a lot of buyers remorse out there.

    Yeah (5.00 / 2) (#43)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:41:21 PM EST
    a friend of mine here in GA told me today that she now regrets her vote for Obama. His minister creeped her out. She's pretty demoralized right now and feels that she should have paid better attention to what is going on. Now she thinks we're going to lose the general election to McCain. Too late smart I guess.

    [ Parent ]
    Better Late Than Never...At Least She Saw (5.00 / 1) (#105)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:19:15 PM EST
    the error of her ways and will not be doomed to repeat that kind of error again.  When Hillary wins the nomination, she can vote for Hillary!!

    [ Parent ]
    I know. But why can't the people in Oregon (none / 0) (#162)
    by derridog on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:41:37 PM EST
    realize this?

    [ Parent ]
    Buyer's remorse (5.00 / 2) (#114)
    by Iris on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:23:00 PM EST
    often sets in like this, the problem with this race is the media is trying to call it a fait accompli and say we can't do anything about it.

    This is still our party, and yes, we can do something about it.  This is what conventions are for, and just because conventions of recent years have been little more than formalities does not mean that it has to be that way this time around.

    [ Parent ]

    Every case of buyers remorse (5.00 / 1) (#144)
    by befuddled on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:34:26 PM EST
    should be turned into an opportunity to encourage that person to reassert themselves by writing to their delegates, the DNC, whoever. I know very well that they don't read it all, but I feel pretty sure they at least measure the height of the stack. This site is an excellent source for facts, ideas, and addresses to use.

    [ Parent ]
    Not sure I believe "Buyer's Remorse" (none / 0) (#158)
    by gmo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:39:42 PM EST
    Not sure I believe that there's a "Buyer's Remorse" effect going on in a large scale.  

    If that were so, wouldn't the polling numbers for Oregon look a lot different than they do right now?  

    [ Parent ]

    It's going (none / 0) (#172)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:46:05 PM EST
    on but it's not across the board. In Oregon the early voting is tied but OR has lots of latte liberals so I don't see that their votes will tell us a lot. Obama's problems are mainly with working class whites, hispanics, asians and women.

    [ Parent ]
    Creative class (none / 0) (#176)
    by BarnBabe on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:48:35 PM EST
    A lot of people migrated there from California in the mid 90's. Eugene is a big college town too.

    [ Parent ]
    Obama's spin (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by cmugirl on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:29:11 PM EST
    Obama has been claiming that Bill Clinton said Hillary would win 80-20 (I can't find anything that shows Bill Clinton said that - just a Hillary supporter engaging in hyperbole to rev up a crowd),
    so the new Obama camp spin (and what will become the media spin) is that anything less than an 80-20 split is a loss.

    My prediction: Clinton 68, Obama 20, Edwards (who is still on the ballot) 2.

    oops (none / 0) (#24)
    by cmugirl on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:29:44 PM EST
    Should have checked my math.
    C - 68
    O - 30
    E - 2

    [ Parent ]
    30 point win. (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by davnee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:32:47 PM EST
    I'm going to be optimistic and make that my prediction.
    Outside shot at 35 points.
    I just want turnout to be good.  I want the media to get a finger stuck in their presumptuous eye.  That and I want HRC to have the popular vote in the end.  Just for the satisfaction of it.

    My guess? (5.00 / 2) (#27)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:33:44 PM EST
    Tonight's primary will be a complete and utter rout and repudiation of Sen. Obama, followed shortly thereafter by our gallant punditry declaring to the musical backdrop of "Dueling Banjos" that the states of the mid-Appalachian region are full of nothing but inbred racist rednecks anyway, and thus don't matter.

    Of course, nobody'll say that to Al Gore's face, because if Gore had won West Virginia in 2000, we'd be calling him "Mr. President" today ...

    Hi I'm Tweety: I luv Barack! (5.00 / 1) (#58)
    by Salo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:57:43 PM EST
    and I __ those __  fools in ___ ___. I'm Chris Matthews and I'm an undeclared Democratic superpundit.

    (Ruining Baracks chances all the way to November!)

    [ Parent ]

    Super fool maybe....and you know Tweety is (none / 0) (#109)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:20:17 PM EST
    prone to turning on a dime, if he thinks it will give him a leg up on other pundits.

    [ Parent ]
    hark, i hear banjos. (5.00 / 2) (#67)
    by hellothere on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:59:48 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Tweety already has (5.00 / 3) (#87)
    by Kathy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:11:02 PM EST
    that "sqealing like a pig" thing down pat, doesn't he?

    [ Parent ]
    The media would say it to Al Gore's face.... (none / 0) (#97)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:16:17 PM EST
    ...they don't like him either.

    [ Parent ]
    62-35 (5.00 / 2) (#69)
    by Makarov on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:00:38 PM EST
    With 2% going for Edwards who is reportedly still on the ballot.

    favorite son and all that. (5.00 / 1) (#71)
    by hellothere on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:01:30 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Turnout will be a talking point (5.00 / 3) (#77)
    by miriam on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:05:54 PM EST
    Obama campaign with its megaphone media have been saying for weeks that the race is over.  If the turnout is above average, with a large Hillary win, I'd say that's a good indication that voters do not feel it's over and don't want it to be if Obama is the nominee.  It's hard to see how the media will spin a big loss for Obama as anything but a bad sign, but I'm sure they'll try.

    The media seems to have made the call (5.00 / 1) (#198)
    by bridget on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:01:44 PM EST
    and Obama has got the nom in the bag.

    Haven't turned on the TV yet today but

    last night I forced myself to listen to every single news channel re Hillary and WV and pundits have rarely been so united in their Clinton opinion (and ridicule). Why is she still out there when she can't win this campaign and is broke to boot?

    Joe Klein (who really is a Clinton hater, my goodness) blamed it all on some sort of Clinton sickness, i.e. they (Bill and Hillary) are in denial and just can't accept its over for them (paraphrase). I was stunned how nasty he sounds. Hadn't seen him for months.

    Tweety did acknowledge his concern re Obama not being able to convince the white working class to vote for him but, of course, it is all Hillary's fault.

    Buchanan, at least, said that if Obama couldn't solve his own problems w. the voters he needs, it had nothing to do w. Hillary. Well, he is right there IMHO. AFAIR that's how it has been in every campaign so far. Except in 2008 cause it's Obama time and the rules have changed for the tweeties.

    However, from what I heard it does seem the Obama-loving media folks are concerned about one thing now: Can Obama beat McCain without the white working-class vote, w'out the Latin vote and older voters?

    So finally imp. questions are creeping in the so far smooth Obama media narrative. And yes, Hillary is being blamed plenty already.

    [ Parent ]

    My Prediction (5.00 / 2) (#94)
    by CST on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:13:04 PM EST
    John Edwards wins!

    :)

    Best response on the thread! LOL (none / 0) (#108)
    by madamab on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:19:42 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    As WV, so goes the nation? (5.00 / 1) (#107)
    by goldberry on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:19:40 PM EST
    We should get a pretty good idea from WV as to what Obama can expect to max in white voters of either sex.  WV has a small AA population.  I'm going with 64-39-5.

    I've stopped calling them (none / 0) (#145)
    by Edgar08 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:35:12 PM EST
    "white" voters, myself.

    Something to think about.

    [ Parent ]

    It never mattered before (5.00 / 1) (#166)
    by JavaCityPal on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:43:33 PM EST
    demographics have been broken down by race and gender for decades. Until this primary, it was never thought to be racist. And, if you'll notice, "white working class males" is not considered sexist.


    [ Parent ]
    Winning is the Key! (5.00 / 3) (#137)
    by Muzza on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:32:22 PM EST
    Let's face it, even if Hillary won by 90%, Obama's mates in the media would still construct such a "win" as a "loss". It doesn't matter what margin Hillary wins by it won't be rewarded appropriately by the media. Already they are trying to "knee-cap" her by predicting ridiculous margins so that when she doesn't get these they can spin the "loss" b/s! Whatever, I think a 60-40 win would still a very good outcome, factoring out all of the other hysteria going on. Because at the end of the day, the very fact of an Obama loss is very embaressing for Obama/DNC/Media - why is the "unifier" and "presumptive nominee" not able to win such a key state? Because he is neither a unifier nor is he going to be successful in stealing the nomination!

    Hillary all the way.

    http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net

    They would declare it Her Most Gracious Exit (5.00 / 3) (#147)
    by JavaCityPal on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:35:31 PM EST
    opportunity.

    [ Parent ]
    Prediction (5.00 / 2) (#168)
    by Cal on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:44:36 PM EST
    I predict she will be dissed and dismissed by MSNBO as a "shrill harpy", regardless of the outcome.  The Democratic party is in deep s*** with boomer women voters.  Howard Dean better fix this problem, and quick, if he doesn't want to lose a huge chunk of the Democratic electorate.

    no dice (5.00 / 4) (#188)
    by Upstart Crow on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:56:17 PM EST
    Can't be fixed.  Too late.  We'd know the reason we are being placated: because they want something from us.  

    Like an abusive man who is only nice when he wants sex.  And after you've been scr3w3d...

    [ Parent ]

    Will MSNBC will call the race when polls close (5.00 / 2) (#191)
    by ChuckieTomato on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:57:32 PM EST
    Or wait until midnight again

    [ Parent ]
    ARG says Clinton by over 40 (5.00 / 2) (#169)
    by dem08 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:44:50 PM EST
    and I think that will be the spread

    Hillary 63%

    Obama   22%

    I am for Obama, but he has a real problem here and with the nomination and with a huge segment of Democrats in the General Election.

    Hillary will get a huge boost today and in KY.

    I think if Clinton hits a 40 spread (5.00 / 2) (#201)
    by davnee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:05:07 PM EST
    it could send some super-d's out to purchase some Depends for the remainder of this race.  A 40 spread and record turnout that she can spin into KY momentum and we may see super-d's visiting their local emergency rooms in order to receive oxygen.  Can BO really declare mission accomplished the same night he gets walloped in a state that has 1 more electoral vote than Oregon?  What if his OR victory is held to single digits?

    I'm not pretending that Clinton is anything but a longshot at this point, but that would be wow!

    [ Parent ]

    I just don't believe it. (5.00 / 1) (#207)
    by katiebird on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:08:04 PM EST
    It sounds like a set up.  And an impossible expectation.

    [ Parent ]
    And yes it may be expectations gaming (5.00 / 1) (#216)
    by davnee on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:16:34 PM EST
    That would be quite likely.  Frankly nothing between 20 and 40 would shock me.  I'll take the sweet spot at 30.

    [ Parent ]
    I think your number for Obama is close (none / 0) (#174)
    by bjorn on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:47:13 PM EST
    but I think Clinton will get close to 70% IF the turnout is really high.  Lower turnout, and it will be closer to 65%.  Edwards = 4%

    [ Parent ]
    A West Virginia Story (5.00 / 1) (#175)
    by Michael Masinter on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:47:26 PM EST
    I was born in 1946 when West Virginia had a much larger population (6 House members), grew up in Charleston, and attended a de jure segregated grade school in the first and second grades.  In 1954 the Supreme Court decided Brown v. Board of Education, and in the fall of 1954 my county (Kanawha) integrated its formerly dual school system, sending me to a fully integrated elementary school for third grade and beyond.  I offer that as a response to anyone who thinks West Virginians are racists; we (because I still have family there) are not.  For lots of reasons unrelated to race, West Virginia will vote heavily for Clinton.  But to read much into that fact is to ignore how different West Virginia is from the rest of the nation; by virtually any measure it is the least diverse state in the nation.  It has steadily lost population, and more to the point, it is the only state in the nation that has grown less diverse over the past decade.  Demographically, West Virginia is a window into our past, not our future.

    West Virginia Vote Estimate (5.00 / 1) (#196)
    by KeysDan on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:01:29 PM EST
    My guess is that anything shy of 28 per cent will be portrayed by the Obama campaign as a loss;  if 28 per cent and over, it will be presented as too late or that West Virginians are just clinging to their snake-handling religion.

    WV is 2 to 1 (1.00 / 4) (#46)
    by Electa on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:47:07 PM EST
    Democrat and Bush won the state both times.  It's a blatant racist state, I lived there until 06.  Blacks' socioeconomic conditions are worse in WV than the MS Delta and Rio Grande.  Hillary has really gained bragging rights.  Hooplah, Hillary wins a state where the #1 state university, WVU, fraudulently gave the Governor's daughter a MBA to get a job.  You go HRC!!!

    Today's e-mail? (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by oculus on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:50:45 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I was just about to (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by eric on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:58:59 PM EST
    type the same comment.  Yep, daily talking points...

    [ Parent ]
    Ah yes. (5.00 / 4) (#54)
    by madamab on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:54:22 PM EST
    The "we don't need no racist hillbillies" stock response.

    Feel the unity!

    [ Parent ]

    welcome to being southern (5.00 / 6) (#59)
    by Kathy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:57:45 PM EST
    This is the same knee-jerk crap we get all the time, no matter our great universities, the wonderful people who live here or the progressive politicians and leaders who were born here and went on to do great things.

    It's a shame for y'all, really.  All of the bigotry, none of the biscuits.

    [ Parent ]

    I come from the other side of the Altlantic (5.00 / 1) (#65)
    by Salo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 02:59:14 PM EST
    and even I know there is something deeply wrong with the Brahmins.

    [ Parent ]
    Inbreeding. (none / 0) (#104)
    by madamab on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:19:02 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    MmmmMMMMmmmm... (5.00 / 1) (#72)
    by madamab on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:01:52 PM EST
    biscuits.

    BTW - I'm a Baltimore girl. I laughed and laughed when someone I met at a party thought I was from the South.

    Clearly that person traveled farther South than New Jersey.

    Hubby and I went to Harper's Ferry, WV, and stayed at a B&B. It was a wonderful, but strange, experience. The proprietress referred to the Civil War as "the recent unpleasantness."

    [ Parent ]

    Ahem, WV stayed in the Union (5.00 / 2) (#86)
    by Cream City on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:10:43 PM EST
    y'know.  And thus, of course, it was quite unpleasant for WV, and the economic scars of being cut off from the more prosperous parts of Virginia do remain.  

    (We are a young and presentists people who forget that was not that many generations ago.  Heck, I was raised on resentment of An Gorta Mor, the famine that pushed some of my people here -- almost a generation before our Civil War.  And in Europe, I was told that 1776 was still "current events"!)

    [ Parent ]

    Heh. (none / 0) (#103)
    by madamab on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:18:45 PM EST
    You are right - anything before 50 years ago is "antique" in America.

    The Europeans take quite a longer view of history. :-)

    [ Parent ]

    Ah, but we get the gravy (5.00 / 1) (#74)
    by Cream City on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:03:28 PM EST
    with this primary.  Love me them biscuits and gravy.  (Not a fan of grits, though.:-)

    Oh, and about the idjits who hate all things Southrun?  Let 'em keep it up and tell it to all the Northern AAs, many of them late Great Migraters and with a lot of relatives still in the South and being dissed by the Obamans who really have no sense of AA history at all.  Let 'em eat latte.

    [ Parent ]

    Btw, I've been to WV and southern Indiana (none / 0) (#76)
    by Cream City on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:05:52 PM EST
    a lot, with relatives in both places, and I recall seeing Confederate flags -- huge ones -- only in southern Indiana.  Relatives report same in southern Illinois.  Never saw any in WV, and we went down a lot of off-roads as well.

    [ Parent ]
    That's because (5.00 / 1) (#82)
    by miriam on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:09:58 PM EST
    West Virginia was a proud Union state, formed during the Civil War. Virginia seceded but the western part of the state refused to, leading to its statehood.

    [ Parent ]
    Indiana stayed in the Union, too :-) (none / 0) (#93)
    by Cream City on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:12:54 PM EST
    But it was infamous for Confederate sympathizers, of course.  As there were in WV -- but the relatives there rather relished stories of what was done to them. :-)

    [ Parent ]
    but still (none / 0) (#106)
    by Salo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:19:22 PM EST
    ever so racist somehow.

    [ Parent ]
    I have met hundreds of WV'ers now (none / 0) (#121)
    by Cream City on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:26:56 PM EST
    and discussed race (as well as much else) with many of them.  And I heard hardly any racism -- far fewer examples of racism than I do in Wisconsin.

    [ Parent ]
    it was snark (none / 0) (#150)
    by Salo on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:36:49 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Or a bunch of cowards. That part messed (none / 0) (#146)
    by Joan in VA on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:35:31 PM EST
    up our state shape anyway. Just kiddin'!

    [ Parent ]
    don't forget bitter. very important! (5.00 / 2) (#70)
    by hellothere on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:01:05 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    John Kerry and Al Gore (5.00 / 5) (#95)
    by BDB on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:13:42 PM EST
    are black?

    Because it seems to me the fact that the last two democratic nominees lost a democratic state implies West Virginians vote on issues other than race.

    [ Parent ]

    Generalizations! (5.00 / 5) (#127)
    by cloudy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:28:38 PM EST
    Since we're generalizing...I'd like to suggest that the folks who are "racist" would probably be just as disinclined to vote for a woman.  

    It's your other talking point that tells the real story.  

    WV is 2 to 1 Democrat and Bush won the state both times.

    Last I checked, Bush ran against two WHITE guys. Maybe, instead of writing off the state and all it's inhabitants as low-information bigots, we should look at why the Dems have been losing a state that they should win.  I don't know but maybe it's because our party has moved away from it's core principles and maybe this has given folks pause on whether the Dem candidate is one who speaks for them.

    [ Parent ]
    classy! NOT (1.00 / 1) (#199)
    by moll on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:03:52 PM EST
    It's a blatant racist state, I lived there until 06.  Blacks' socioeconomic conditions are worse in WV than the MS Delta and Rio Grande.  Hillary has really gained bragging rights.  Hooplah, Hillary wins a state where the #1 state university, WVU, fraudulently gave the Governor's daughter a MBA to get a job.  You go HRC!!

    California is a blatantly racist state too.  I lived there and you wouldn't believe how many there are.

    Are we having fun with unfair, insulting generalizations yet?

    Why are you so afraid of democracy?

    [ Parent ]

    whoops (1.00 / 1) (#205)
    by moll on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:07:14 PM EST
     
     
    It's a blatant racist state, I lived there until 06.  Blacks' socioeconomic conditions are worse in WV than the MS Delta and Rio Grande.  Hillary has really gained bragging rights.  Hooplah, Hillary wins a state where the #1 state university, WVU, fraudulently gave the Governor's daughter a MBA to get a job.  You go HRC!!

    California is a blatantly racist state too.  I lived there and you wouldn't believe how many there are.

    err....how many David Duke fans there are, I mean.


    [ Parent ]

    Oh plz. give the world a break (1.00 / 9) (#75)
    by Electa on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:05:19 PM EST
    "So Obama partisans do not help their cause by willfully misrepresenting Clinton's reference to "hard-working Americans, white Americans" as racist rather than as a poorly worded observation made in a state of utter exhaustion."

    "Poorly worded observation made in a state of utter exhaustion"  Bill introduced the race card when it dawned on him that Barack was a serious competing force and he's sublimally played throughout the entire campaign.  Hillary knew perfectly well what she was saying playing to the racist appeal of "hard working" whites in WV.

    As the rethuglicans used to say over the 2000 election..."GET OVER IT".  Obama is the Democratic Nominee.

    Nice of you to (5.00 / 3) (#78)
    by eric on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:07:17 PM EST
    aspire to such heights.  Get over it?

    How old are you?

    [ Parent ]

    Ah, Electa (5.00 / 1) (#184)
    by kmblue on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:53:21 PM EST
    Answer to question of "How old is Electa?"
    Not very.
    But I am sympathetic.
    I supported McGovern.
    Boy, was I mad when he got slaughtered like a hog in a pen.

    [ Parent ]
    Wow (5.00 / 7) (#81)
    by Steve M on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:09:42 PM EST
    Thanks for an apt illustration of "Obama partisans not helping their cause."

    [ Parent ]
    Tee-Hee (5.00 / 1) (#113)
    by leis on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:21:31 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I Think That Should Be: "And Thanks For (5.00 / 1) (#115)
    by PssttCmere08 on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:24:32 PM EST
    playing obama partisans not helping their cause."
    No more contestants thank you....  :)

    [ Parent ]
    You people are unbelievable (1.00 / 5) (#139)
    by Electa on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:33:32 PM EST
    if you can't take it then don't dish it out.  Just go back and read yourselves on this board.  I don't think you are haters here but you sure come across as bigots.  You see it doesn't matter one way or the other because McCain will win the GE.  If the SD give Hillary the nomination blacks will boycott the DP either by not voting in mass numbers or crossover.  If Obama wins then the good hard working whites like you on this board will vote for McCain.  So, McCain is your next president.  Looks like checkmate to me.  

    [ Parent ]
    Why do you assume we're all white? (5.00 / 4) (#159)
    by leis on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:39:49 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    2 myths for the price of one! (5.00 / 1) (#163)
    by ahazydelirium on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:41:37 PM EST
    If the SD give Hillary the nomination blacks will boycott the DP either by not voting in mass numbers or crossover.

    1. The superdelegates are going to have to give the nomination to one of them.

    2. There's no evidence that the black community will boycott, and I HIGHLY doubt any statistically significant amount of the community will vote Republican.


    [ Parent ]
    Math challenged much? (5.00 / 3) (#185)
    by goldberry on Tue May 13, 2008 at 03:54:38 PM EST
    Although it would be regrettable to lose AA voters, they make up only 12% of the US population and are heavily concentrated in Republican states like SC, NC, AL, GA.  If Obama is hoping that AA votes are going to carry him to victory in the GE, he's wrong.  They are barely giving him a lead right now and we're just talking about the Democratic party.  In the GE, the AA votes in swing states are going to be swamped by Republicans and independents.  
    Clinton, OTOH, could possibly pull Republican women over.  Women are ubiquitous and fairly evenly distributed in every state.  

    [ Parent ]
    Calling others names will get you banned (5.00 / 1) (#193)
    by waldenpond on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:00:16 PM EST
    Knock it off with the 'bigot' garbage.  

    [ Parent ]
    Hard-working whites? (5.00 / 1) (#202)
    by Molly Pitcher on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:06:35 PM EST
    I think not!  Try women--white, yellow, brown, and black.  We're the ones that see the vacuum that is walking around.  And if McCain is my next president--not sure I have given up anything of value.  If the dems don't value me, then guess what....

    [ Parent ]
    Instead of (5.00 / 3) (#208)
    by cloudy on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:08:37 PM EST
    looking at why Obama is losing the working class, white, Asian, and Hispanic vote and working harder to connect with these demographics, Obama's people and to some extent Obama himself (see the SF comments) find it so much easier to play the poor sad victim.  They won't vote for me because of my color!  Woe is me.  Never mind that maybe, just maybe, he hasn't done much to address our issues, and instead has ridiculed and talked down to us.  If the Dems want to win in November, and if they are set on giving us Obama as our nominee, the uniting starts from the top.

    [ Parent ]
    The truth of the matter (none / 0) (#219)
    by Electa on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:24:01 PM EST
    is Barack has won more states, more pledged and now superdelegates and the popular vote.  That makes him the champion. I find it ironic how the tides have turned..a reversal of sorts of the civil war.  Whites in the N. have now switched position with those in the S.  America is a strange kind of place.  

    [ Parent ]
    Excuse me? (5.00 / 1) (#217)
    by Steve M on Tue May 13, 2008 at 04:20:42 PM EST
    Did you really just call me a bigot?

    I hope you enjoyed your brief stay at this site.

    [