home

NC Polls: Obama With Big Lead

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:10:00 PM EST
Tags: (all tags)
Share This: Digg! StumbleUpon del.icio.us reddit reddit

By Big Tent Democrat

PPP has Obama up 20. Civitas has Obama up 18. The funny thing is these polls confirm what we have seen in the recent PA, IN, KY and WV polls, and in Ohio - demography is political destiny.

For example, in the PPP poll, Clinton leads among whites 51-35 and Obama leads among African Americans 90-10 (Interestingly, I think the Civitas poll seems much more favorable to Clinton as the undecided number is much higher for whites in that poll. To wit, it is probably a lot closer than 18.) Expected turnout in NC? 65% white, 35% A-A. Obama can lose whites 3-2 in NC and still win the state. In Indiana, Obama gets 35% of the white vote too. Problem is 90% of the electorate will be white in Indiana.

< Obama Attacks Hillary for Having a "Shot and A Beer" | More on the Indiana Poll Showing Hillary Up by 16 >

  • The Online Magazine with Liberal coverage of crime-related political and injustice news

  • Contribute To TalkLeft


    • Display: Sort:
    NC Polls: Obama With Big Lead | 28 comments (28 topical)

    Readers Must Login or Create an Account to Comment

    We are ambling toward the (5.00 / 3) (#1)
    by andgarden on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:52:34 PM EST
    nightmare scenario.

    MI and FL will be relevant.

    yeaaaaaaaaaaagh! (none / 0) (#6)
    by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:33:46 PM EST
    that one was for Howard.  Thanks Howard.

    Parent
    relevant? (none / 0) (#10)
    by AgreeToDisagree on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:02:54 PM EST
    it won't matter if he wins NC big.  she'll concede or SDs will push him over... numbers are stubborn things.

    Parent
    If not for all the voters, Obama would be... (5.00 / 5) (#3)
    by Exeter on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:53:33 PM EST
    ...a great general election candidate.

    By your post... (none / 0) (#13)
    by mbuchel on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:29:02 PM EST
    I assume you're saying Hillary would be better.
    But explain this to me - how would she be a better general election candidate if she can't even win the majority of the voters in her own party?

    Parent
    She has a won a majority of voters... (5.00 / 1) (#17)
    by Exeter on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:34:47 PM EST
    ...in her own party. Overwhealmingly. She also does much better in general election match ups in key battleground states of Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, while Obama struggles in those states.

    Parent
    Actually... (none / 0) (#18)
    by mbuchel on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:53:51 PM EST
    You'll need to cross MI off your list.  Latest shows he's +2, she's -9.
    And do I need to list the states where he consistently out performs her?  VA, CO, NC, IA, WI,...

    Parent
    Links? (none / 0) (#20)
    by white n az on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:58:39 PM EST
    because the last Survey USA from VA clearly doesn't show that. I haven't seen CO, IA or WI lately since they've already voted but I could be convinced that he could outpoll her in CO and IA anyway.

    Parent
    I think we're talking about two... (none / 0) (#23)
    by Exeter on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:34:41 PM EST
    ...different things. Yes, Obama has won more votes in the Democratic primaries.  However he has done this with a great deal of help from GOP and independents. If you just look at Democratic voters, Hillary has won by a wide margin.  I agree that he does better in the states you mention, but Hillary can win without those states, although I don' think she'll lose WI. Obama can't win w/out winning one of OH, FL, or PA.

    Parent
    A few things... (none / 0) (#24)
    by mbuchel on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:03:30 PM EST
    1.  She's on the Kerry map, but trails McSame in WI, MI, OR, WA.  Her margin for error is so tiny.  His is much wider - he opens the map to any of a number of possibilities.  If she loses any of the states I listed, she's dead.  The election is fought exclusively in democratic turf, rather than on republican.

    2.  Cross-over appeal is a good thing.  Anyone can vote in the general election.  And I don't mean in an Operation Chaos sort of way.  Do I think he'll keep all his repubs - no, I'm not a fool.  But I think there's a good chance he'll keep a lot of the indys - and the polling shows that to be true.


    Parent
    It will be interesting to see... (none / 0) (#25)
    by Exeter on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:21:50 PM EST
    ...what the next round of SUSA 50 state polling shows.    

    Parent
    Obama "opening the map" (none / 0) (#27)
    by kempis on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 06:54:02 AM EST
    Really?

    Have you looked at recent electoral map projections? Both Hillary and Obama are working with red states of Jesusland proportions. The difference is that Hillary is doing better against McCain in the key battleground states.

    This whole silly "50 state strategy!" that the Obama-supporters have gotten so self-righteous about is impractical. In the end, we're faced with the same old electoral map and the same old battlegrounds. Red states like those in the Deep South and Midwest and Far West will be conceded as the DNC pours money into the rust belt (where Obama is going to fare badly) and even in New York (which Obama currently loses to McCain).

    McCain is going to siphon off Obama's "Obamacan" and Independent support, and he'll take most of the Reagan Democrats, too, those voters that helped the Dems win in 2006 but are likely to turn away in November, in part out of disgust with the Democratic-led Congress and in part out of disgust with the DNC for once again nominating an Ivy League ultra-liberal.

    Obama's not electable in November. No way. He cannot win with the collegiate liberal and African American votes only, and that's just about what he'll be left with. McCain's appeal (fair or not) will be broader. And the GOP will demonize Obama so effectively with Reverend Wright and William Ayers and Michelle that the GOP base will be just as energized to go vote against him as they would be if he were a Clinton.

    Parent

    And again... (none / 0) (#28)
    by mbuchel on Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 10:20:21 AM EST
    the folks on this board follow the same blind assumptions that you are all so upset about when an Obama supporter makes them.  Namely, your assumption that Hillary gets all of his voters (us AAs and latte sippers) and he gets none of hers (Regan D's, women).  Puh-lease!  Either they both have weaknesses or they both will ultimately get most of the others votes.  But you guys want it both ways.

    And your arguments about the map are false.  She doesn't do better across the board in the midwest.  He outpolls her in MI, WI, IA.  And the reason you are so ready to throw out the west is because she's isn't competitive in red states (CO, NM, NV).  In fact, she is in trouble in blue states (OR, WA) out there!

    Finally, you call the 50 state strategy silly.  That's the same mentality that has lost the campaign for Hillary - ignoring states that democrats "can't" win.  Bill had this same problem too when he was president.  You simply can't ignore vast areas of the country because you can't win the whole state in a presidential election!  Ever heard of local races?  State legislatures?  Congressional seats?  Senators?  If you run the right candidate and make an effort in those places, you might not win the whole state, but you force your opponent to expend time and money (advantage: Obama) there and you improve the base of the party.  And make it more likely you get the agenda you want accomplished.

    Parent

    Is that a reliable polling company? (none / 0) (#2)
    by hairspray on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:52:47 PM EST


    Middling (none / 0) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 04:55:26 PM EST
    Personally, I think PPP's new turnout model seems incredibly questionable.

    It will be interesting to see how it does.

    Parent

    This (none / 0) (#5)
    by sas on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 05:02:47 PM EST
    is as I expected.

    No surprises here, either in Indiana or NC.

    It will not be from lack of effort from me (none / 0) (#7)
    by angie on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 07:52:55 PM EST
    I don't expect Hillary to win NC given the demographics, but I live in Charlotte, NC and I'm a volunteer for Hillary. I think Hillary will close that 20% gap before May 6 -- the problem right now  is that Obama has had a better presence here then Hillary.  But she started running some great ads last week that are getting positive responses and we are boosting her visibility now that we have signs, bumper stickers, etc. to distribute.  Also, that "clinging to guns, religion and antipathy. . ." comment has hurt Obama in NC. Two Independents at my office told me today they are def. voting for Hillary now.  

    the only thing sen. obama (none / 0) (#8)
    by cpinva on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:02:56 PM EST
    has going for him in NC is the AA vote. absent that concentration, he gets trounced. unfortunately, come the GE, neither will win there.

    the AA vote doesn't necessarily help Obama (none / 0) (#9)
    by white n az on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 08:23:01 PM EST
    because if it emerges that he wins NC only on the basis of the AA vote and loses the white vote, the electability argument that Hillary has been making is essentially proven.

    Parent
    why? (none / 0) (#12)
    by AgreeToDisagree on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:06:42 PM EST
    do african americans (or AA ???) not count anymore?  just the white people?  you guys are getting real real desperate.

    Parent
    Didn't you get the memo? (2.00 / 1) (#14)
    by mbuchel on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:32:38 PM EST
    Black voters don't count.  Only Hillary voters count.  Caucuses don't count.  Only big states count.  States that end in -cut don't count.  States that end with a silent s count.  Please make a note of it.


    Parent
    i thought that was the case (none / 0) (#16)
    by AgreeToDisagree on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:34:26 PM EST
    but didn't want to be presumptuous!!

    Parent
    sorry if you didn't understand... (none / 0) (#19)
    by white n az on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:56:10 PM EST
    AA votes count but not in the way that you are thinking. They certainly count in voter population totals and delegate totals. It's almost certain that Obama will have the lead in 'pledged' delegates when this is all over. Less certain are the popular vote numbers. But for the super delegates, the AA vote is discounted...

    In the argument for the 'super' delegates, the fact that 90% or so of the AA vote is assumed for Obama but it says that he is their guy.

    The general election is (or should be) the concern of the 'super' delegates and Obama's ability to garner voters from whites is of critical interest.

    If Obama wins 90% of the black votes in NC but only 25% of the white votes, this is a loss for him even if he wins the state. That's the point I am making. I don't know what the proper over/under number is for Obama and white votes in NC but I would think that it has to be somewhere around 25-30%

    Parent

    But understand your double standard... (none / 0) (#21)
    by mbuchel on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:10:03 PM EST
    You assume that if Hillary is the nominee she will get all of his AA vote as well as all of her white vote, so therefore she's the stronger candidate.
    On the other hand, if he wins the vast majority of AAs and a minority of whites, you are making the case that he can't win by implying that her white voters will not go to him.
    Aren't democrats more than likely to vote for whoever the nominee is?  Or are you saying that her voters are less likely to go to him because they are white and his are black, and well, you know, where else are they going to go?  And please don't tell me it's because he's run such a negative campaign against her.
    I ask this b/c people on this board give him so much crap for his "I'll get her voters she won't get mine" but it seems you're making the same argument.

    Parent
    wow... (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by white n az on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:30:41 PM EST
    you just morphed a conversation on the breakdown of voting in NC to another topic altogether, one which I never went near.

    But since you insist...

    I don't speak for anyone but myself and I will vote for the nominee. I live in AZ and I doubt either would be close enough for my vote to matter.

    Clearly there is a problem for the candidate who actually wins the nomination to get the other supporters behind them.

    My own personal belief is that the Clintons did not suddenly become racists and that the majority of the AA community would support them.

    My gut feeling is that Obama will have a difficult time reaching a substantial number of women that support Hillary...many of them who don't always vote in elections. I get it that for Obama to win the nomination, he had to beat down the Clinton legacy and eviscerate Hillary...it's the cost of winning the nomination that I think he miscalculated.

    I also think that if Obama plays out his stated intentions to block the seating of FL and MI, and adding to that, the women that don't like what he has done to Hillary through this campaign, and the small segment that probably would never vote for an AA, that Obama will be a candidate with little chance to prevail in November.

    That's my feeling but that has nothing to do with the discussion that is the subject of this thread.

    Parent

    he has the majority of people in NC going 4 him (none / 0) (#11)
    by AgreeToDisagree on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:05:39 PM EST
    how's that?

    majority wins in elections... doesn't matter what "race" the make-up of the majority is.  does it?

    Parent

    um, no, he doesn't. (none / 0) (#26)
    by cpinva on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:53:24 PM EST
    he might have a slim majority of those voting in the democratic primary going for him, that's all. come the GE, neither would win NC, regardless of the AA turnout, since they're only 20% of the total NC population. i can almost guarantee you the white males who won't vote for him in the dem primary also won't vote for him in the GE. like it or not, that's a fact.

    no republicans will vote for him either, and they constitute the majority in NC, and every other deep south state. again, facts. he might get the triangle vote, that's about it.

    Parent

    She needs surprise win (none / 0) (#15)
    by kenosharick on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:34:09 PM EST
    or to at least keep it close here. Media would write off 20pt Barack losses- but play up any loss for her(and pressure her to drop out)

    NC Polls: Obama With Big Lead | 28 comments (28 topical)

    Readers Must Login or Create an Account to Comment