This poll has Obama winning African Americans by only 50-30 but still within 3. That is simply impossible. Let's do our SUSA analysis again.

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, 3 out of 4 A-A undecideds break for Obama, giving him a 65-35 win among A-As, a preposterous result. Obama will win AT LEAST 85% of A-As. This translates, assuming the 14% A-A percentage of the vote that SUSA finds, that A-As will deliver 9% of the TOTAL vote to Obama 9% and 4.5% to Hillary.

Extrapolating from there, assuming an overall 4 point Clinton lead, we can then assume that this polls has Clinton winning whites relatively narrowly - by less than 10. Thus delivering Obama 39% of the total vote. 39% plus 9% equals 48% for Obama and 52% for Clinton.

I believe NEITHER finding. Obama will win much more than 65% of the African American vote (he certainly must be winning by more than 3-2 now.) Clinton will win whites by more than 55-45 (this poll has her with virtually NO lead, at most a couple of points). The numbers simply do not add up, even if one assumes (the poll mentions that past primary voters break for Clinton by 7, also a ridiculously low number) high A-A voter and young voter turnout.

Bottom line, Obama may be down 3, but this poll does not convince me that that is true. I simply do not believe its internals. They strike me as completely not credible. Obama winning A-As 90-10, a 20% A-A vote and Obama capturing 35% of the white vote is the formula for Obama being within 4. Not the results of this poll.