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Unreliable ARG: Clinton By 20 In PA

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

In my view, along with Zogby, ARG is the worst pollster I know of. So this poll finding is not to be taken seriously. The reason I post it is because it shows a 20 point jump for Clinton. ARG last week had it tied at 45. Now it has Clinton 57 - Obama 37.

We'll watch for more reputable pollsters for PA polling. More . . .

BTW, no need to apply my poll analysis using SUSA turnout models. ARG does it for me:

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 48% to 44% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 64% to 31%. Clinton leads 64% to 29% among white voters (82% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 79% to 18% among African American voters (14% of likely Democratic primary voters).
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    I wish! (5.00 / 2) (#1)
    by bjorn on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:52:42 AM EST
    If only it would turn out that way.  I just watched McCain's speech this morning on CNN.  It was pretty darn good!  Anway, back to polls.  When will the SUSA come out again?  I think that is the one I have the most confidence in right now.

    I watched it too (none / 0) (#65)
    by MichaelGale on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 01:17:57 PM EST
    It was very good.  He never looked down one time! or used a teleprompter!  

    He got it exactly right also by injecting patriotism without saying the 'word".  Now that's what small town people Pennsylvania 'cling' to, bad economy or not.

    Parent

    I would not be at all surpised (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:59:39 AM EST
    if she takes it by 20.

    I think 20% are AA (none / 0) (#39)
    by TalkRight on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:46:58 AM EST
    so that margin looks difficult [esp with his voter registration drive with AA]

    Parent
    That being said, BTD (5.00 / 5) (#3)
    by Jim J on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 09:59:42 AM EST
    As the "bitter" gaffe gains in prominence, these numbers, faulty though the poll likely is, could prove prescient.

    I realize you disagree and have surmised, possibly correctly, that Obama is simply immune from any and all possible meltdown. But as you like to say, we shall see.

    I tend to agree that something very weird is going in with regards to media favoritism. It does appear that corporate America/Wall Street have made their choice and it's Barack.

    thats because their (5.00 / 4) (#5)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:06:10 AM EST
    real choice is McCain.

    Parent
    They're all about LIMITING choice (none / 0) (#64)
    by lambert on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 12:53:41 PM EST
    Throw out Edwards on the left and Paul on the right.

    Of McCain, Obama, and Hillary, throw out Hillary.

    They'd prefer McCain.

    But they can live with Obama. Everybody loves the Unity Pony!

    Parent

    Polls just keep getting more insane. (5.00 / 2) (#4)
    by Maria Garcia on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:01:21 AM EST
    IMHO, we won't know anything until the primary. I think Hillary will win but 20%? I don't think so.

    Are we cynical enough ... (5.00 / 5) (#6)
    by davnee on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:07:19 AM EST
    ... to believe some pollsters juice their models to drive certain narratives?  Perhaps ARG wanted to drive the Obama's closing narrative, i.e. the fat lady is singing to Clinton narrative, and now sees the fantastic bittergate narrative as a great way to draw attention to their poll.  Think of all the media attention they'll get now for the "astonishing" effect of Obama's gaffe.

    or it could be as simple (5.00 / 2) (#10)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:09:17 AM EST
    as there really IS a huge effect.
    seems completely believable to me.

    Parent
    Interesting tidbit (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by ghost2 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:18:25 AM EST
    I looked through google searches (through google trends), and you'd be surprised to know, there has been a huge number of searches for (obama bitter) term.  It has surpassed the peak number of searches for (clinton bosnia).

    I think there is an interest in this story.  

    Parent

    I'm betting on a combination of the two (5.00 / 3) (#26)
    by dianem on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:23:31 AM EST
    A temporary hit to Obama's poll numbers as a result of the recent controversy, plus a poll that is either badly designed or is simply an outlier. A 20 point jump is ridiculous. Congratulations to all who applied the common sense test and chose to wait for further information before jumping on the "Wow, Clinton is ahead by 20 points!" bandwagon.

    Parent
    I'm betting on (none / 0) (#63)
    by delacarpa on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 12:20:30 PM EST
    20% jump is not suspect. SUSA said by 18% and so it is possible. People will start making up their minds and plus Obama's last bump. I think it is very possible and if Clinton does well in the debate it is really possible.

    Parent
    Very possible imo (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:11:36 AM EST
    I buy that (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by andgarden on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:14:23 AM EST
    I am not sure about the intent (5.00 / 2) (#22)
    by ghost2 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:21:20 AM EST
    But it seems to me that in this election, pollsters have juiced their turnout models.  Rememnber the Des Moines Register poll, which surmised an astonishing 45% new, independent voters showing up in Iowa Caucuses?  

    Overly positive or negative polls become a self-fulfilling prophecy (to a certain degree).  They drive the narrative.  

    Parent

    I hope she brings up (5.00 / 2) (#27)
    by abfabdem on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:25:47 AM EST
    Annie Oakley in the debate and thanks Obama for the very complimentary comparison given the facts of Annie's life.  And as another poster mentioned, she can certainly sing "Anything You Can DO . . . ."

    Parent
    waiting for the Hillary-Annie tees (5.00 / 2) (#35)
    by Josey on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:42:47 AM EST
    and mugs and caps and stickers and mouse pads --and GUNS!
    lol


    Parent
    I would so (5.00 / 1) (#52)
    by sister of ye on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:03:19 AM EST
    scrape up money to by one of those caps (I collect them), especially as a Clinton fundraiser.

    So now, besides a bowl-off, she can challenge him to a sing-off. I dont' think Obama has a clue about the font of humor he opened up.


    Parent

    Please no singing from Hillary! (5.00 / 1) (#61)
    by felizarte on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 12:03:22 PM EST
    Or perhaps come to the debate dressed in an Annie Oakley inspired pantsuit, complete with two six-shooters and explain that those are not for shooting ducks.

    Parent
    Rasmussen's (none / 0) (#56)
    by Lahdee on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:18:42 AM EST
    poll out this AM couldn't hurt their image. Poll

    Parent
    Bad for Bittergate (5.00 / 5) (#9)
    by Faust on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:08:19 AM EST
    Accurate or not, a poll like this will feed perceptions that bittergate had an impact and that will keep bittergate alive that much longer.

    So accuracy aside this is good media news for Clinton.

    Lets see how many narrative spinners grab it.

    ARG shouldn't feed perceptions of anything (5.00 / 5) (#11)
    by andgarden on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:09:38 AM EST
    in the self-fulfilling prophecy category (5.00 / 3) (#19)
    by Kathy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:17:54 AM EST
    I think it'll depend on whether or not the press spins it that way (as usual).  What will be interesting to see is whether or not folks glom onto this as a valid reason to tell pollsters who call that they do not support Obama.  I had a theory a while back that when confronted on the telephone by a live person, a lot of voters were lying about who they would vote for because they didn't want to appear racist.  Not that they are racist, but it's certainly been carefully spun so that Clinton voters are either stupid, racist or women (or all three).

    Obama has given them a reason to hate him other than race now.  (Don't be impressed, someone already said this on TV before me)

    Parent

    Yeah, I have a thick skin (5.00 / 2) (#34)
    by andgarden on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:39:45 AM EST
    and it can still be intimidating. Not far from the dkos environment, actually.

    Parent
    It's true that ARG is unreliable. (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by ghost2 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:12:43 AM EST
    but RealClearPolitics includes Zogby in its average. Why has it left out ARG??

    The question is why has it included Zogby? (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:18:14 AM EST
    My take? Because RCP is a GOP site and NewsMax, a Republican "semi-publication", sponsored the most recent Zogby poll.

    Parent
    I believe this poll (5.00 / 3) (#16)
    by Kathy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:15:27 AM EST
    but, then, I have stated many times that I only believe the polls that make me happy, and this one makes me very happy indeed.

    (aside: did Oculus get banned?  Where's my bud?)

    The poll speaks of a trend (5.00 / 3) (#17)
    by Prabhata on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:17:11 AM EST
    I can discount the exact numbers, but the trend must be right because BO backed down from defending his comment and now attacks Clinton's character.  His polls must be telling him that the numbers are moving against BO.

    want to know how you can really tell (5.00 / 3) (#28)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:30:02 AM EST
    they are sweating?
    all the Obama blogs that had slacked off the Hillary attacks are in full attack mode again.  clearly they got the memo.


    Parent
    Heh (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by Steve M on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:17:47 AM EST
    The fact that they go from tied one week to a 20-point margin the next suggests that while they may be incompetent, at least they're not massaging the numbers.

    The poll is also bad news for BO (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Prabhata on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:21:31 AM EST
    because it goes to the headline narrative that he's losing badly in PA.

    That May Be Good for HIm (5.00 / 2) (#25)
    by BDB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:22:45 AM EST
    Lowers expectations.

    Parent
    That's okay (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:30:17 AM EST
    It means the media won't cover it....especially MSNBarack

    Parent
    If Obama Loses by Double Digits (5.00 / 5) (#24)
    by BDB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:22:20 AM EST
    I predict a freak out by Super Delegates because now it will be blamed on this, especially since earlier polls showed he had narrowed the gap.

    Not that I believe this poll, it is ARG.  

    There is a debate this week, so that could change the topic or give either of them a chance to change the dynamics of the race.

    Well, I tend to doubt (5.00 / 3) (#36)
    by madamab on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:43:29 AM EST
    a poll that swings so wildly.

    Still, SUSA says 18%. After the ridiculous remarks Obama made about PA voters, I see no reason to think the margin won't be at least that wide.

    I know I've pretty much had it with Obama at this point. Democrats are supposed to care about the working class, not diss them at every turn. If he's the future of the Democratic Party, count me out.

    Unreliable is unreliable (none / 0) (#41)
    by Marvin42 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:49:43 AM EST
    Its like reading tea leaves, the trend may as well come from throwing animal entrails on the ground. ARG went from

    3/26-27/08    600 LV    51    39
    To
    4/5-6/08    600 LV    45    45
    To
    4/11-13/08    600 LV    57    37

    Unless PA needs to put mood stabilizers into its water supplies they are pretty much worthless (which is what I said when they said its tied).

    Parent

    I think you were responding (none / 0) (#43)
    by madamab on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:52:32 AM EST
    to the comment below mine. :-)

    Parent
    Oooopss (none / 0) (#49)
    by Marvin42 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:00:34 AM EST
    Sorry about that. Old age...

    Parent
    Maybe the 4/5-4/6 poll is the one that was wrong! (none / 0) (#55)
    by honora on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:08:11 AM EST
    I don't believe that she has a 20 point lead (altho I would love it),but perhaps the middle poll is wrong.  The first and third poll are not really that different.

    Parent
    Grain of salt (5.00 / 2) (#47)
    by nell on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:58:04 AM EST
    I think BTD is right, this poll should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt. It makes no sense to see a 20 point swing in one week, did they change their turnout model? I suspect she will win, but I do not think it will be by 20 points.

    It would actually make sense for ARG to massage the numbers. The narrative could be again that Clinton has this huge gap due to snobgate, and then when the actual margin on election day is much narrower, they can talk about how well Obama weathered the controversy, just like Wright, voters forgave him, connected with him, etc.

    Just based on the calls that I have been making to PA, there are still plenty of undecideds. A few people did mention on the phone that they were surprised by his comments and weren't sure what to make of them. At least one man said he was leaning heavily towards Obama but now he is rethinking that. So is it going to have some impact? Yes, but I would not imagine more than 1-2 points. People who were solidly in his camp before will stay there, people who were leaning or undecided may be slightly more likely to break for Hillary. People in Hillary's camp will stay there.

    x (none / 0) (#53)
    by Mary Mary on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:05:38 AM EST
    My calls yesterday and today were 10:1 for Hillary vs. Obama. And, unfortunately, 9:1 Hillary vs. anti-Hillary but not for Obama.

    Very few undecideds - I told them to watch the debate!

    As for the poll? Sorry, the election is close enough that I'm content to wait for the results.

    Parent

    ARG is a dart board (none / 0) (#7)
    by andgarden on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:07:36 AM EST
    so no, I don't believe it. Still, the demo numbers look more-or-less right.

    by the time of the primary (none / 0) (#8)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:07:59 AM EST
    every voter in PA will have heard the bittegate comments.
    no amount of media spin will make up for that.  in the long run it could be more damaging than Wright because it is so personal.

    J Ro has an interesting post up (none / 0) (#30)
    by digdugboy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:33:42 AM EST
    at MyDD. http://tinyurl.com/4x33sq

    The article shows a consistent pattern of the the race tightening in each state as the election gets closer. At this point it's much easier to conclude that the ARG poll is way way off, rather than that PA will be the unique example bucking the historical pattern.

    Incidentally, the effect that campaigning has on the outcome of a race -- tightening the numbers considerably -- shows why it would be wrong to seat Michigan or Florida as is.

    J. Ro's post was terrible (5.00 / 4) (#31)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:36:04 AM EST
    Why? Because he ignored the fact that after the tightening, Clinton wins the late deciders. As she did in NH, Ohio, CA, TX et al.

    this last week has traditionally been Clinton's best part of a campaign.

    I thought J. Ro's post not worthy of being on the MYDD FP.

    Parent

    Terrible? (none / 0) (#44)
    by digdugboy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:54:34 AM EST
    That's a wee bit overstated. It's not related at all to his central argument. How late deciders vote is a different subject altogether.

    Parent
    Absolutely terrible (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:59:28 AM EST
    Why restate the banal talking point about Obama closing while ignoring the late deciders issue?

    A terrible post. Really dumb.

    Parent

    It was among the finest posts on MyDD ever (none / 0) (#57)
    by digdugboy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:21:04 AM EST
    Not every post on every blog must throw in the kitchen sink to be considered a truly remarkable piece of excellent work.

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#60)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 12:01:29 PM EST
    To each his own I guess. If banal,obvious and silly is your cup of tea, well go for it.

    Parent
    It's everybody's cup of tea (none / 0) (#62)
    by digdugboy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 12:13:00 PM EST
    judging from all available metrics.

    Parent
    Revotes (none / 0) (#32)
    by andgarden on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:36:14 AM EST
    Is ARG wrong about trends though? (none / 0) (#37)
    by MarkL on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:44:48 AM EST


    Sally Quinn (none / 0) (#38)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:46:11 AM EST
    was on MSNBC this morning explaining how "what he really meant was" people in the cities cling to their hand guns.
    she did not go into why you would "go into these small towns" to find people from the citys but thats what she said.


    I don't get it (none / 0) (#40)
    by bjorn on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:48:53 AM EST
    was she being sarcastic?

    Parent
    not that I could tell (none / 0) (#45)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:56:52 AM EST
    Sally Quinn? (none / 0) (#58)
    by BDB on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:44:59 AM EST
    Ugh!  Talk about an elitist.  

    Parent
    Sally Quinn yesterday on CNN (none / 0) (#59)
    by mm on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:48:22 AM EST
    Apparently, in the village, Sally Quinn is now the go to gal when you want to talk religion.

    See how this religious woman so honestly characterizes Senator Clinton's response to the question asked on 60 Minutes.

    FOREMAN: And yet, she's paid something of a price because some people have looked at her and said, if you believe something, speak up. She said, I wasn't raised that way. We don't talk that much about it. And yet, she paid something of a price with the faith community.

    QUINN: Although she did talk about it in the Clinton administration, she talked about her faith a great deal, and I've been surprised that she had shied away from it. But I think she's seen what happened with Obama. And I can't believe that if he's the nominee that McCain will go after him on the Wright thing because McCain is so vulnerable himself on this issue.

    But I also think that you have to -- you really have to be very careful when you're talking about religion and you have to seem authentic. And it matters because in order to be elected, you can't be an atheist obviously in this country. You have to have a religion. But you also have to be pluralistic because you have to welcome everyone's religion.

    I think Hillary got in a little trouble when she was asked if Obama was Muslim and she said something to the effect of not that I know of, or not that I'm aware of --
    (CROSSTALK)

    FOREMAN: Right. Exactly. It seemed very --

    QUINN: ... which she would not have said if someone said is McCain a Muslim, or is George Bush a Muslim. She knows perfectly well that Obama is not.



    Parent
    BTD: How much does Hillary need... (none / 0) (#42)
    by Exeter on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:52:17 AM EST
    ...to win Pennsyvania to secure your endorsement?  

    I think Obama might be reading this pool... (none / 0) (#46)
    by hopeyfix on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:57:45 AM EST
    ...and freaking out. His new move on "clean politics" reeks of desperation, and I am afraid is only digging his hole deeper. I loathe the idea of him as a nominee, but if he is going to be the democrat running, he needs to stop the foot on the mouth moments now, not increase them.

    To me, the most interesting poll (none / 0) (#50)
    by frankly0 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:00:52 AM EST
    that has come out today is the Rasm poll regarding Obama's remark. While it's precise numbers are suspect of course, given that it's Rasm., the trends it indicates are pretty hard to ignore.

    Overall, the poll shows relatively little effect so far on Democrats nationally (which probably is mostly irrelevant to its impact on PA, I'd expect, where the effect could be quite considerable).

    But once you get out of the Democrats, it's terrible news for Obama in the general.

    By a 2-1 margin, unaffiliated voters disagree with his statement. By a 52-27 margin, moderate voters disagree.

    And there's this nugget:

    People who have followed the story are much more likely than other voters to disagree with Obama's statements and to consider them elitist. To date, just 25% have followed the news story Very Closely while another 30% have followed it Somewhat Closely.

    So Hillary's right to press on this as hard as she can. When every voter knows what those who are now following the gaffe story closely already know, it spells truly bad news for Obama.

    Craig Craford (none / 0) (#51)
    by Capt Howdy on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:01:46 AM EST
    has a couple of great post up about this:

    Obama might be able to talk his way out of this mess among Democratic primary voters. Just the idea that voters "cling to religion" because they lost their jobs and hate Washington would be enough to doom a less-talented candidate. Lucky for him, though, this is not happening during the general election.  This episode does suggest that Obama might not be so different from the liberal elites in the Democratic Party whose disdain for middle-class, socially-conservative voters have led to defeat in so many presidential elections.

    **

    and this link that go to the heart of his helping downticket democrats thing:

    NRCC Continues to Hammer Democratic Congressmen with Obama Remarks

    ARG Polls (none / 0) (#54)
    by Missblu on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 11:06:24 AM EST
    I disagree on assessment of ARG especially comparing it to the totally flawed Zogby.  It was right on the money in it's last Texas poll showing her winning by 3 and within the margins in Ohio.  Check it out.


    PA for Hillary (none / 0) (#66)
    by drewohio1 on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 02:33:12 PM EST
    Hillary will win PA by 39% margin.

    "Obama tanking in Pennsylvania" (none / 0) (#67)
    by diplomatic on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:09:37 PM EST
    Yep, this ARG poll is already getting media coverage.

    That is the headline of a new L.A. Times article that talks about this poll.

    It begins:


    "New poll shows Barack Obama tanking in Pennsylvania

    The first fresh poll results from Pennsylvania are in since Barack Obama's "bitter" comments about people in small towns exploded as a news story, and the findings could hardly be worse for the Democratic presidential contender.
    "



    That's what I noticed: (none / 0) (#68)
    by Dawn Davenport on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 03:32:02 PM EST
    The ARG poll was taken Friday through Sunday, while other recent PA polls showing tighter margins (like the Susquehanna poll released today) were taken earlier last week.

    Parent