home

Hillary Wins Texas

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:52:49 PM EST
Tags: Texas '08, Hillary Clinton (all tags)
Share This: Digg! StumbleUpon del.icio.us reddit reddit

By Big Tent Democrat

Hillary Wins Texas says CNN and NBC.

Listen to the whining from NBC.

BTW, you are hearing a lot about Florida and Michigan again. Told you so.

Oh and there is no doubt now that the ticket will be Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama.

Update (TL): Congratulations, Hillary. And I'm not convinced the ticket will be Hillary-Obama or vice-versa.

Comments over 200, this thread is now closed. New ones are up.

< Texas And More on Delegate Counts | Texas Caucus Results Start Coming In >

  • Premium Ads

  • Blog Ads

  • Contribute To TalkLeft

    donate to TalkLeft


    • Display: Sort:
    Hillary Wins Texas | 221 comments (221 topical)
    Good thing. . . (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:53:42 PM EST
    I didn't quit my programming gig.

    Yipeee yia...yeah....!!!!! (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:53:46 PM EST


    it's not that close (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by bigbay on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:54:01 PM EST
    4% points in a huge state. If Obama wins the caucus , it will point out how ridicules the system is.

    ridiculous <sp> (none / 0) (#6)
    by bigbay on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:54:32 PM EST
    it's late

    [ Parent ]
    Yup (none / 0) (#175)
    by Fultron on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:56:19 AM EST
    People understand a single anonymous ballot in the box. It's harder to justify a much smaller sample voting twice to swing a state for a candidate that lost the primary. It looks, feels, and is funny. This head-to-head comparison puts an exclamation point on why caucus wins are not equal to primary wins, and how calculating popular vote based on caucus results is not obvious.

    I can't wait to hear Obama supporters claim that winning the TX caucuses in the face of 2M+ votes cast in the primary is meaningful...then in the next sentence complain about superdelegates and argue that FL/MI should be disenfranchised.

    [ Parent ]

    But caucases represent the will of the people (none / 0) (#180)
    by Manuel on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:01:52 AM EST
    TX (and WA to a smaller extent) prove the point.

    [ Parent ]
    Backwards (5.00 / 1) (#191)
    by Fultron on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:18:40 AM EST
    They represent the people of will.

    Too much snark for this time of the evening...

    [ Parent ]

    Poor MSNBC (5.00 / 2) (#4)
    by Grey on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:54:13 PM EST
    Russert looks so sad, it's hilarious.
    and KO (5.00 / 2) (#15)
    by p lukasiak on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:58:32 PM EST
    KO looked absolutely livid...

    I just turned on the TV for the first time tonight.... and it was pretty obvious that they weren't happy.

    [ Parent ]

    KO and Tweety (none / 0) (#21)
    by waldenpond on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:00:45 AM EST
    Tweety looks ill every time Clinton wins.  It's priceless.

    [ Parent ]
    What has happened to him? (none / 0) (#22)
    by vigkat on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:00:45 AM EST
    Is there a male version of Stepfordization?

    [ Parent ]
    He's your crazy uncle (none / 0) (#202)
    by herb the verb on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:25:03 AM EST
    Or the color commentator in "Best in Show".

    I want Fred Willard to play him in the mockumentary.
    Fred Willard

    [ Parent ]

    A well deserved win for HRC (5.00 / 4) (#8)
    by Prabhata on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:56:12 PM EST
    She has demonstrated steel determination and we need that in the WH.

    Something (5.00 / 4) (#9)
    by Practically Lactating on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:56:52 PM EST
    seems to be caught in Russerts' throat.

    A piece of crow? (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:57:43 PM EST
    ;)

    [ Parent ]
    I think it's a piece. . . (5.00 / 2) (#31)
    by LarryInNYC on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:03:13 AM EST
    of my hat.

    [ Parent ]
    crow and hat stew (none / 0) (#38)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:06:01 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Hand Timmeh a cuppa that (none / 0) (#45)
    by Cream City on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:06:51 AM EST
    hat sauce, Lar. But spike it with several drops of Tabasco first, just to see how red-faced Timmeh can get.

    [ Parent ]
    How's dat (none / 0) (#66)
    by Fredster on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:12:07 AM EST
    How's dat Roux coming?

    [ Parent ]
    Talk about tortured (none / 0) (#20)
    by Practically Lactating on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:00:19 AM EST
    I could have sworn he just lost his best friend.  Oh wait.

    [ Parent ]
    Russert (5.00 / 2) (#30)
    by NYMARJ on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:02:59 AM EST
    Mentioned to my husband that Russert looked like he wasn't able to speak - his face was so distressed.

    [ Parent ]
    looked to me like he's had work on his face. (none / 0) (#159)
    by thereyougo on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:43:28 AM EST
    His face looks a little pulled back

    [ Parent ]
    My projection wins!!!!!!!!! (5.00 / 6) (#10)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:57:27 PM EST


    PA will be a really big deal now andgarden. (5.00 / 4) (#17)
    by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:59:41 PM EST
    I'm so glad your vote will count. This is just a political junkie's dream as long as it doesn't hurt us in November.

    [ Parent ]
    I don't think so (5.00 / 2) (#24)
    by Stellaaa on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:01:38 AM EST
    Look, I am in Europe where the Russian elections was bigger news than in US, comparing our little mess to that MESS, heh, it's good to have the competition.  People should be proud that voters are really thinking and paying attention.  

    [ Parent ]
    Two Benefits (none / 0) (#53)
    by BDB on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:08:53 AM EST
    One, as Kos pointed out tonight, it will keep media focus on democrats and that's a good thing.

    Two, it will cause democrats to build organizations in almost every state.  That will be a good thing.

    [ Parent ]

    And you made the live blog. good job (5.00 / 3) (#19)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:00:05 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    My predictions were pretty good too (5.00 / 4) (#27)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:02:06 AM EST
    CUT AND PASTE FROM THIS MORNING (for gloating purposes):

    But here's how I see it.

    Obama has had a terrible last few days.  So some of his natural advantages have been undercut.

    Clinton wins OH by at least 10%, but I really won't be surprised if it went higher than that.

    In VT, Obama does that Barbabra Eden thing he does at caucuses and wins by at least 20%

    Clinton takes RI by at least 12%.

    Now Texas.  Polls seemed indicate that Hillary was leading with early voters.  And convention wisdom would suggest Obama would do better with day of voters.

    But I think a strange thing happened.  Finally, Hillary's experience message worked.  The red phone and follow up ad played well in TX.  Exit polls will list "experience" as the top issue on voters' minds.

    Hillary builds on her early vote lead, and wins by between 4-6%.

    Republican mischief voters vote both ways, canceling each other out, and have little or no impact.

    [ Parent ]

    To us, (5.00 / 3) (#44)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:06:46 AM EST
    You are SurveyUSA. ;-).

    [ Parent ]
    Can I call myself ... (5.00 / 3) (#51)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:08:42 AM EST
    John Philip SUSA?

    It must be late, I'm making bad puns.

    [ Parent ]

    Oh my (5.00 / 1) (#67)
    by BrandingIron on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:12:10 AM EST
    that has got to've been the worst pun I've seen all season (worst in a good way), LOL.

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks! (none / 0) (#78)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:14:34 AM EST
    Exactly what I was going for.

    [ Parent ]
    You've earned the honor! ;-) (none / 0) (#71)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:13:33 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    well done (5.00 / 1) (#79)
    by diplomatic on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:14:46 AM EST
    And I give you credit for having the courage to call Texas that way.  Hardly no one dared say Clinton would win it here.

    [ Parent ]
    Not to be immodest (5.00 / 2) (#92)
    by Marvin42 on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:17:29 AM EST
    But I dared to call it for her +4:

    Clinton +4 TX
    Clinton +15 OH
    Clinton +10 RI
    Obama +20 Vermont

    Granted I didn't believe myself, but it I sat myself down and gave myself a good talking too!

    [ Parent ]

    nice! (none / 0) (#110)
    by kangeroo on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:22:12 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    he shoulda put some $ in Vegas. ;-) (none / 0) (#162)
    by thereyougo on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:45:45 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Good for you!!!! Keep 'em coming. (none / 0) (#35)
    by RalphB on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:04:40 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Heck ya... (5.00 / 2) (#13)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:58:03 PM EST
    I want all those who kept saying she should quit or stop to apologize.  Kerry and company, on your knees...!!!!

    Yes Yes Yes (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by talkingpoint on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:58:29 PM EST
     you go girl. This race is for the democratic nominee and Hillary is winning the votes of democrats. This is not a race for the independent nominee, and we all know independents are not commmitted to either party (can't trust them). Its time for the democratic party to seat the delegates in Florida and Michigan and make the real demlocrat run for the White House.

    Its like a funeral... (5.00 / 1) (#16)
    by Chisoxy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:58:49 PM EST
    Now that Scarborough and Buchanan are gone from the panel I dont know if there is much reason to keep watching.

    A chorus of Democratic theme song (5.00 / 2) (#18)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:59:41 PM EST
    "Happy days are here again...etc..etc."
    Love that song

    Here's my thought. Assuming (5.00 / 5) (#32)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:03:58 AM EST
    HRC gets the nomination and wins the GE, all the TL HRC supporters should meet in DC for the inauguration.  

    [ Parent ]
    i like this idea. :) (none / 0) (#58)
    by kangeroo on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:10:46 AM EST
    haven't been to dc in a while.

    [ Parent ]
    Weather warning: D.C. can be (none / 0) (#117)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:24:24 AM EST
    really cold on inauguration day.  Why do I know this?  Because we sat on metal bleachers for Nixon inauguration day parade.  

    [ Parent ]
    duly noted. (none / 0) (#137)
    by kangeroo on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:32:27 AM EST
    will try not to get ahead of myself just yet, though.  still, it'd be fantastic to get together.

    [ Parent ]
    I want to meet in Brattleboro, VT (none / 0) (#59)
    by Cream City on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:10:47 AM EST
    because, even though the state went for BO, we are forgiving sorts -- and have to applaud a town that has declared itself forever free of Bush and Cheney. They dare not set foot there now, as the town voted two-to-one to arrest the war criminals if they come there. (Btw, if the media had been alert to anything but where Obama sent them to wear their big white Stetson hats and suck tequila, they would have been in Brattleboro for some great interviews today. The quotes in the print coverage are just wonderful.)

    [ Parent ]
    oh man this is great news! (none / 0) (#165)
    by thereyougo on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:47:42 AM EST
    if the Congress can't uphold the Constituion we the People have to.

    Think Iwogima

    [ Parent ]

    oh man this is great news! (none / 0) (#167)
    by thereyougo on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:48:15 AM EST
    if the Congress can't uphold the Constituion we the People have to.

    Think Iwogima

    [ Parent ]

    You can all stay at my house (none / 0) (#99)
    by Democratic Cat on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:19:13 AM EST
    Well, maybe not.  But you can all come over for a drink!

    [ Parent ]
    April or May, yes. January, no. (none / 0) (#215)
    by oldpro on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:46:07 AM EST
    Let's meet in Hawaii or Barbados or something and watch it on TV!!

    [ Parent ]
    Wow (5.00 / 12) (#23)
    by BDB on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:01:03 AM EST
    All that momentum, all that money, all that good media and Obama loses 3 of 4?  A cynic might thing Senator Obama has problems closing the deal.

    BTD, I'm telling you, it's better to be a media anti-toxin than a media darling because a media darling is still dependent on the media.  Whereas the anti-toxin is immune.  This past week the media turned on Obama a bit (although, really, it was just a taste of what Clinton has gotten) and that hurt the media darling.  Whereas months of pounding haven't been able to kill the media anti-toxin.

    I'm starting to agree with this (5.00 / 8) (#28)
    by andgarden on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:02:27 AM EST
    The argument for nominating Hillary seems very strong today.

    [ Parent ]
    You always make a lot of sense (5.00 / 2) (#86)
    by diplomatic on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:16:06 AM EST
    Seriously you should be an A-list blogger.  Consistent fair minded analysis that hit the mark.  My compliments to you.

    [ Parent ]
    Plus the caucus states, plus stong in rural d. (5.00 / 1) (#195)
    by wprange on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:19:57 AM EST
    Add to that the caucus wins for Obama, which anybody can understand is more problematic for Hillary's supporters to attend (more of a hassle for the elderly, more of a hassle for poorer people who work in shifts or have to work during the caucus).
    Add to that, that Hillary is doing far better in rural districts. McCain's support will mainly come from such districts in the GE, Hillary will be more able to undermine the rural McCain vote. The bigger urban districts will remain strong democratic in the GE, no matter what.

    [ Parent ]
    good point there. (none / 0) (#34)
    by kangeroo on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:04:02 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    The only way the media can turn on her (none / 0) (#193)
    by echinopsia on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:18:56 AM EST
    is to turn positive.

    yes, I think you have a great argument here.

    Tell some superdelegates.

    [ Parent ]

    Wow! (5.00 / 3) (#25)
    by vigkat on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:01:43 AM EST
    KO just called Hillary the "presumptive nominee."

    Did they have to carry him away (5.00 / 3) (#36)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:04:49 AM EST
    to the fainting couch?  

    [ Parent ]
    Did he (5.00 / 1) (#81)
    by Fredster on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:15:27 AM EST
    have to change his drawers?


    [ Parent ]
    The entire panel (none / 0) (#182)
    by vigkat on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:07:22 AM EST
    went into total disarry.  Breathtaking.

    [ Parent ]
    I think it's clear that Obama needs to drop out (5.00 / 2) (#29)
    by jerry on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:02:59 AM EST
    I think this was Obama's night to lose, and since he lost it, I think he should do the honorable thing and concede the nomination.  Anything else would be to put the Democratic party at risk of implosion.  Let's let the popular candidate win.... for once.

    so true so true (none / 0) (#42)
    by talkingpoint on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:06:41 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    that's right! obama needs to drop out (none / 0) (#48)
    by hellothere on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:07:52 AM EST
    and think about what's best for the party. of course, he won't. i said it because i was so sick of hearing that said about hillary.

    [ Parent ]
    hmm... (none / 0) (#52)
    by mindfulmission on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:08:46 AM EST
    Let's let the popular candidate win.... for once.
    Pretty sure that Obama will still have the lead in popular vote after tonight, as well as the pledged delegate count.  

    So do you really think that the "popular candidate" should win?

    [ Parent ]

    I think that was snark (none / 0) (#105)
    by Democratic Cat on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:21:00 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    How do you compute popular vote (none / 0) (#186)
    by Manuel on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:09:25 AM EST
    for caucus states?  As TX will demnstrate, there isn't an obvious relationship.  We have seen that in NV and WA to a lesser extent.

    [ Parent ]
    Good point BTD (5.00 / 4) (#41)
    by diplomatic on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:06:39 AM EST
    I think tonight guarantees that Clinton can get some action on Michigan and Florida AND that she will at the very least broker a VP slot for herself.

    But looking at the numbers in big states, yet again Hillary proves why she should be our nominee.  Strong with women, strong with latinos, RESILIENT, can take a punch, etc, etc.

    VP slot? You're kidding right? She should be (5.00 / 3) (#49)
    by Angel on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:08:15 AM EST
    the NOMINEE for President.

    [ Parent ]
    I said at the very LEAST (none / 0) (#90)
    by diplomatic on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:17:16 AM EST
    I am in a glass half-full type of mood.  Hedging bets, being cautious, etc.

    I want Hillary Clinton to become our next President pretty damn badly.

    [ Parent ]

    My gawd (5.00 / 5) (#50)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:08:33 AM EST
    I am going to have to write about the Puerto Rico contest.

    I think you should vote again and cancel (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by Teresa on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:11:55 AM EST
    yourself out.

    [ Parent ]
    Meet you there! (5.00 / 3) (#64)
    by diplomatic on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:11:58 AM EST
    My grandma will get her wish... to vote for Hillary.

    My grandfather just died las week though =(

    [ Parent ]

    I offer my condolences :-( (5.00 / 2) (#80)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:15:10 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    thanks (5.00 / 1) (#108)
    by diplomatic on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:21:56 AM EST
    He lived a long life though... Probably happier now anyway.

    [ Parent ]
    Condolences -- and take care (5.00 / 2) (#119)
    by Cream City on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:25:09 AM EST
    of yourself. Even if it was, as you say, his time -- it isn't always our time to let go. Loss is loss.

    [ Parent ]
    i'm sorry. :( (5.00 / 3) (#83)
    by kangeroo on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:15:44 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    thank you (5.00 / 1) (#115)
    by diplomatic on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:23:56 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    I started commenting after DK just drove me out. (5.00 / 4) (#179)
    by thereyougo on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:58:56 AM EST
    from the Obamalovefest. And bashing Penn and Clintons staff, so I'm like a few weeks here but I find everyone nice and while we disagree on some things, its been an oasis for me.

    I believe in Hillary and the Clintons. I don't think they're driven by anything but love for this country. I trust them on the merits of their leadership despite their other personal problems.

    And its nice to be able to say it without bringing up her Iraq vote like she wore it as a scarlet letter. geez.

    Anyway I don't know many around here yet, but my prayers to "diplomatic" in his hour of grief.

    [ Parent ]

    I'm so sorry for your loss (none / 0) (#198)
    by sumac on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:24:10 AM EST
    I wish you and your family all the best.

    [ Parent ]
    I warned my friends about this. (none / 0) (#68)
    by phat on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:12:21 AM EST
    I suppose I should have warned you.

    phat

    [ Parent ]

    Ah. (none / 0) (#77)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:14:30 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    You aren't fooling anyone (none / 0) (#84)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:15:45 AM EST
    You'll love doing it.

    [ Parent ]
    PR, bargain for statehood -- I mean it (none / 0) (#85)
    by Cream City on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:15:51 AM EST
    as I am so weary of a country that began as breaking free from colonization now treating territories as colonies. Go for it, PR, it's time to fit another star in the flag!

    [ Parent ]
    And time for Bill to take a (none / 0) (#224)
    by oldpro on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:55:12 AM EST
    trip to Puerto Rico!!

    Hey....let's go there and watch the inauguration on TV !

    Or...maybe New Orleans?

    Hawaii?

    Australia?  (It's summer there in January).

    [ Parent ]

    Congrats to Clinton (5.00 / 1) (#54)
    by Korha on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:09:12 AM EST
    I think all of us need to think about the greater good of the democratic party at this critical juncture. If the race continues to degenerate between now and PA--or between now and August!!--whoever is the nominee is going to enter the general election severely damaged goods.

    Obama and Clinton are extremely similar on the issues and they will both govern in similar ways. It is much less important who the nominee is than that we actually defeat McCain in November and elect a democratic President. The longer this race goes on, the less our party will be unified and the more likely we will lose the general election.

    Now there is still PA to come and nobody is going anywhere before then. But if Obama wins it and the primary is still deadlocked, Clinton should drop out. If Obama does not win it and the primary is still deadlocked, then he should drop out and accept a spot as Clinton's VP. Defeating McCain is the most important thing.

    HRC certainly doesn't appear (5.00 / 5) (#82)
    by oculus on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:15:37 AM EST
    to me to be "damaged goods" at present, despite the efforts of the media and Obama's campaign.

    [ Parent ]
    She will be soon if the race goes on this way (none / 0) (#112)
    by Korha on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:22:45 AM EST
    Not now, both Obama and Clinton are still well-positioned right now. But it's pretty easy to project the outcome of a protracted nomination fight--we've already seen what's happened in the past few weeks. This is how I fear the campaign is going to play out: Clinton continues to launch 10 negative attacks on Obama every day. Eventually Obama must respond in kind, or even if he doesn't his supporters are going to be really pissed off at Clinton's attacks. The race goes on for four more months until by sheer attrition one of the two manages to eke out victory, most likely through undemocratic superdelegates. Either way, by this point our general election nominee is damaged goods to a wide swath of the democratic base via circular firing squads. Meanwhile John McCain has been busy campaigning with a unified republican party behind him and merrily sniping at our candidates from the sidelines. We lose in November.

    It's also important to keep in mind that Obama and Clinton have different demographic bases among the democratic electorate. Both are equally important, and neither can credibly win the general election without the support of the whole base.

    [ Parent ]

    Bill (5.00 / 2) (#103)
    by Edgar08 on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:20:20 AM EST
    didn't lock it up until June, and he beat Bush Sr.

    The folks screaming 50 state project have already excluded Florida and Michigan and now they want to exlude the remaining states.

    [ Parent ]

    If only it were 1992... (none / 0) (#147)
    by Korha on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:36:01 AM EST
    If Ross Perot runs again and takes a net 5% of the vote away from John McCain, then sure, we'll win.

    McCain is going to be very tough to beat. It won't be a walk for the nominee whoever it is; and we need a united democratic party to do it. Five months of negative attack ads and increasingly hostility and bitterness on both sides /= united democratic party. In other words, what's happened on the blogs is starting to spread into the real world.  
     

    [ Parent ]

    I've seen no evidence of that (5.00 / 1) (#185)
    by gyrfalcon on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:08:58 AM EST
    Why do you say it's starting to spread into the real world?  From the exit polls, average Dem voters are still blissed out about the idea of either candidate running in the general.

    Several MSM types have pointed out, and I agree, that a prolonged primary fight is a big plus for Dems because it keeps the voters' attention focused on them and McCain is totally marginalized.

    [ Parent ]

    The new Pew Poll (none / 0) (#207)
    by Korha on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:28:22 AM EST
    Here:

    The vast majority of Democratic voters say they would support either Obama or Clinton over McCain. But in an Obama-McCain matchup, 14% of Democratic voters say they would support McCain, compared with 8% who would do so if Clinton is the nominee.

    One-in-five white Democrats (20%) say that they will vote for McCain over Obama, double the percentage who say they would switch sides in a Clinton-McCain matchup (10%). Roughly the same number of Democrats age 65 and older say they will vote for McCain if Obama is the party's choice (22%). Obama also suffers more defections among lower income and less educated Democratic voters than does Clinton.

    In addition, female Democrats look at the race differently depending on the matchup. While 93% of women in the party say they would vote for Clinton over McCain, just 79% say they would support Obama over McCain.

    A quarter of Democrats (25%) who back Clinton for the nomination say they would favor McCain in a general election test against Obama. The "defection" rate among Obama's supporters if Clinton wins the nomination is far lower; just 10% say they would vote for McCain in November, while 86% say they would back Clinton.

    Contrary to the MSM pundits, I think these numbers will only grow the nastier and protracted the nomination fight becomes.

    [ Parent ]

    You've said that at least six times now (none / 0) (#183)
    by Cream City on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:08:06 AM EST
    so I hope you get the new memo soon to repeat here.

    [ Parent ]
    I agree (none / 0) (#223)
    by Edgar08 on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:54:23 AM EST
    What's happened on blogs is starting to spread into the real world.

    Came as a shock to me too.

    Problem is, now that it has, Clinton stepping down is going to have an opposite effect of what you want.


    [ Parent ]

    I asked earlier and still no response (5.00 / 3) (#109)
    by SarahinCA on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:22:12 AM EST
    What on earth is the damage to the party?  A vigorous primary is bad HOW?

    [ Parent ]
    well it is bad for the candidate who (none / 0) (#126)
    by hellothere on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:28:23 AM EST
    doesn't do well being vetted. the one who doesn't shine so brightly when the new wears off.

    damaged goods will happen only if one of the campaigns plays very ugly politics.

    [ Parent ]

    Look (none / 0) (#128)
    by Korha on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:28:48 AM EST
    It's been fine up to now--exciting, vigorous, etc etc.

    If Clinton and Obama start seriously attacking each other's general election vulnerabilities and get their supporters to believe those attacks, then that is a problem. The Clinton campaign has already starting running TV ads claiming Obama is not prepared to be Commander-in-Chief. What will happen is you get a polarized and a divided democratic party going into a three-month general election, not enough time for fresh wounds to close. That's bad.

    [ Parent ]

    by overwhelming majority (5.00 / 2) (#135)
    by SarahinCA on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:31:49 AM EST
    Dems will vote for a dem.  Are you seriously concerned that dems will believe b.s. about the other candidate when it comes to the GE?  Not going to happen.

    [ Parent ]
    Of course I am (none / 0) (#169)
    by Korha on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:51:14 AM EST
    It is already starting to happen. Look at the latest Pew Poll. Very significant numbers--double digits--of of democrats are crossing over to McCain if either Clinton or Obama is the nominee.

    [ Parent ]
    Because people are emotional animals. (none / 0) (#130)
    by sweetthings on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:29:50 AM EST
    If a primary gets too heated, then you get a large number of supporters for candidate X that decide they truly can't stand candidate Y, even if candidate X and Y are very similar policy-wise.

    How many people have we seen on this very site claim that they will not vote for Obama if he wins? How many on DK have vowed not to vote for Hillary if she wins?

    These things aren't such a big deal as long as things are wrapped up in a timely fashion...people rarely remember vows made in March come November. But if we're still fighting when the convention rolls around...then yeah, it could get really ugly.

    [ Parent ]

    not to burst anyone's bubble (5.00 / 3) (#142)
    by SarahinCA on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:34:08 AM EST
    but the people on this site are not representative of the majority voters that call themselves democrats.  By the time November rolls around, democrats aren't going to care about this pissy crap going on right now.  They are going to care about health care, stopping the war, creating jobs.  And that means dems will vote for a dem.

    [ Parent ]
    Just where is this majority? Please tell me. (none / 0) (#157)
    by Angel on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:40:35 AM EST
    Because a lot of the Democrats I know and talk to may not vote for BO.  They may go for McCain or they may sit the election out.  He has turned off a lot of people.  And I mean Democrats who have been voting Democrat for a VERY long time.  He will have to prove himself to lots of people.  By now everyone knows Hillary.  BO is a closed book waiting to be opened and discovered.  So let's not get ahead of ourselves and say that everyone will vote for him if he's the nominee.  It isn't true.

    [ Parent ]
    It's a growing problem for Clinton as well (none / 0) (#173)
    by Korha on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:53:47 AM EST
    Look at the latest Pew Poll.

    [ Parent ]
    pollster.com reports (none / 0) (#181)
    by Cream City on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:06:10 AM EST
    25% of HRC supporters said that they could vote for McCain in a GE and 10% of BO supporters said the same. So it looks like the safe thing to do, since that's your concern, is to call for Obama to drop out.

    [ Parent ]
    Exactly (none / 0) (#219)
    by Korha on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:48:31 AM EST
    I have called for Obama to drop out. At this point our best bet is probably Clinton/Obama.

    [ Parent ]
    I'd like to think that is true (none / 0) (#161)
    by sancho on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:43:50 AM EST
    but I fear Hillary won parts of Ohio tonight that Obama cannot get in November. Southeastern Ohio did not vote for Kerry in 04 and it likely will not vote for Obama either. Ditto large numbers of hispanics in Tx. I really doubt Obama can take Ohio--at least not w/o Hillary on the ticket. He may not take Penn. in a GE either.

    [ Parent ]
    I Hear What You Are Saying (5.00 / 3) (#145)
    by cdalygo on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:35:18 AM EST
    But I wished I would have heard more when Obama and his surrogates in media/campaign were slamming Hillary. Think back on the Harry/Louise type ads, the screeds against the Clinton presidency, and the veiled/open attacks of racism leveled at Bill.

    Moreover, despite "hearing it", I disagree with the premise. Part of our problem in Democratic primaries is our rush to end them. We need to fully vet the candidates.

    The Obama campaign has been seeking to end this campaign for weeks. Why? They know that they can't close the deal.

    That's not who I want at the head of my ticket.

    [ Parent ]

    I fully agree with you (none / 0) (#155)
    by SarahinCA on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:39:47 AM EST
    I think this should go on until there is a clear winner (as much as that is possible).  I'm really disgusted by BO, and often I wonder what the real difference is between him & McCain.  However, my pragmatic side takes over and thinks about things like getting things done in Congress----if we have a dem prez, no matter if it's not my preferred candidate, will we at least get something done?  

    [ Parent ]
    See? (none / 0) (#174)
    by Korha on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:56:15 AM EST
    You yourself are an example of the division that is already being created between Obama and Clinton supporters. Not sure why you're trying to deny otherwise...

    Will you give the same amount of money/volunteering time to Obama if he's the nominee that you would give to Clinton? I would think probably not if you're "disgusted by BO."

    [ Parent ]

    What are you talking about? (none / 0) (#178)
    by Korha on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:57:51 AM EST
    If Clinton was in Obama's position she would be trying to end the campaign as well. That's just obvious.

    Obviously, neither of them can close the deal. That is precisely the problem here.

    [ Parent ]

    She Can Close the Deal (5.00 / 1) (#190)
    by cdalygo on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:16:51 AM EST
    She has won the key battleground states that we need in the general election. She did so despite having been outspent 2:1 (or more in certain states) and been vilified by the MSM and most progressive blogs. In contrast, he lost big time to the late deciders who watched his performance over last weekend (e.g. running from press conference).

    Plus you are assuming that each campaign bears equal responsibility for trashing the other candidate. For weeks many of us warned the Obama supporters to back off on their Hillary and Bill trashing. We argued that shutting down dissent on larger blogs made all of us look stupid. But those cries fell on deaf ears because the Obama folks thought they could skate to the nomination.

    Those chickens are returning to their proverbial roost right now. He might have won tonight if he had not gone of his way to tick folks off with his  arrogance. Further those flashes of arrogance probably cost himself a vice-president slot.

    [ Parent ]

    You continue to see things in a partisan frame (none / 0) (#211)
    by Korha on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:37:46 AM EST
    What I am arguing is that we need to see things from the long-term perspective of our overall chances in the general election. It is simply immaterial who caused what or who bears what responsibility for whatever. As things stand neither Clinton nor Obama will able to seal the nomination for multiple months. If the nomination fight then degenerates into a bitter war--as it very well could, and is in fact starting to--then we're shooting ourselves in the foot whoever the nominee is.

    I understand that people who are deeply invested in the Clinton campaign and deeply invested against an Obama nomination (or vice versa) are not going to see things the way I do. I am and have been a strong Obama supporter, but my number one priority is stopping McCain and making sure a democrat is elected to the Presidency in November. I think either Obama or Clinton would be fine choices, we just need to make sure they are not damaged and our party is united behind them.

    [ Parent ]

    Congratulations Hillary Clinton (5.00 / 2) (#55)
    by diplomatic on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:09:19 AM EST
    What a fighter.  Once again when all the kool kids counted you out, you hung in there and prevailed.

    All Democrats should be happy that we will have at least one more month to take a good, hard look at our candidates and make the right choice.

    Obama has many vulnerabilities which have been made abundantly clear tonight.

    I am just thankful that we did not rush over the cliff just yet.

    In the words of Stephen Colbert (5.00 / 1) (#57)
    by Shawn on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:10:24 AM EST
    I called it! (Ok, the part about McCain/Huckabee still being competitive looks a little bad, but otherwise....pretty good, no?)

    Why isn't this an argument for HRC? (5.00 / 1) (#60)
    by Robot Porter on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:11:13 AM EST
    If you want this nomination process settled, vote heavily for HRC, because she isn't leaving.

    What a relief! nt. (5.00 / 2) (#61)
    by jpete on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:11:27 AM EST


    Here looking at you Kid! (5.00 / 2) (#62)
    by Saul on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:11:29 AM EST


    Gloria Borger (5.00 / 3) (#69)
    by PennProgressive on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:12:35 AM EST
    said earlier this evening that no body wanted the primary to go to Pennsylvania because that would mean that she (i.e., Gloria) would have to spend time in places like  Scranton or Allentown. She said who wants that. Guess what Gloria? You may not like it but we will now be able to vote for the candidate we like and perhaps make a difference. Also, people in Scranton are not thrilled that you or other talking heads who rarely say anything useful or intelligent will land on their town.

    Gloria can stay home (5.00 / 6) (#74)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:14:00 AM EST
    She is an idiot.

    [ Parent ]
    Best comment yet. (none / 0) (#125)
    by Cream City on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:27:30 AM EST
    How in heck did she get that job. Oh. I guess I didn't want to know.

    [ Parent ]
    The BORGEoisie in Scranton? (none / 0) (#106)
    by Practically Lactating on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:21:24 AM EST
    No!

    [ Parent ]
    I cannot believe you said that. (none / 0) (#227)
    by oldpro on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 02:05:09 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    So, over at Dailykos, it's all about how (5.00 / 5) (#75)
    by tigercourse on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:14:03 AM EST
    Clinton has run the dirtiest campaign in history and how the press should really look into charges that she's a lesbian. They're taking it well.

    Heh (5.00 / 1) (#91)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:17:24 AM EST


    [ Parent ]
    And Josh had the correct headline about Texas (none / 0) (#102)
    by Angel on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:20:06 AM EST
    being called for Hillary.  But the first sentence of his post said MSNBC and FOX called it for OBAMA.  What a dork.

    [ Parent ]
    DK (5.00 / 4) (#120)
    by Nasarius on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:25:22 AM EST
    What happened over there? There was never much love for Clinton, but around the time Edwards dropped out, something just snapped and it's been a race to the bottom ever since. I get a sense of vertigo when I dare glance at the rec list. It's unrecognizable.

    [ Parent ]
    It's amazing, no? (5.00 / 4) (#138)
    by spit on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:32:40 AM EST
    I don't mind the bias, it's the stupid that bugs me.

    They still haven't called TX on the front page, BTW, or even referred to the major networks calling it. I found that amusing. How much basic intellectual honesty does it take to say "According to CNN etc., Clinton wins the TX primary"?

    I'm not particularly a supporter of either of these candidates, but there are a few of the blogs that have just lost their minds IMO way beyond supporting their candidate.

    [ Parent ]

    honestly, I think she was run a half descent (5.00 / 1) (#200)
    by thereyougo on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 01:24:35 AM EST
    campaign,considering all the she's hate rhetoric that swept the blogosphere. And when she had the crew shake up, give her credit for re-grouping to eek out a win.

    How many times have you heard" she's got high neg. numbers. She's not liked,or because she s not liked". Damn, I still haven't figured that out. For years. I bet they don't have any reason or just don't recall a reason.

    You can't deny that Hillary is actually a likeable - electable person and has been around all the attacks against her and she's still standing. Her pedigree is presidential. Hell I want a president with all those qualities. No,correct that, the USA needs a president like her after the disaster we have now.

    Whiners

    [ Parent ]

    hahahaha (none / 0) (#89)
    by kangeroo on Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 12:17:12 AM EST
    sigh, shaking my head right now.

    [ Parent ]
    If there were police video of Obama (none / 0) (