Texas and the Delegate Race

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 10:57:49 PM EST
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Big Tent Democrat

Texas is close. And Hillary has the Latino vote to thanks for that. In El Paso, Hillary is winning by 70-30 with 12% of the returns in. In Webb County, she is winning 77-21, with the votes just started.

We'll keep watching this race until it is called.

On an another note, the delegate race looks promising for Hillary tonight. After Gloria Borger said that Vermont (which divided 9-6 for Obama) would provide the largest delegate margin, CNN currently projects Ohio to provide Hillary a 46-24 delegate advantage with many to be decided. In Rhode Island splits 5-1 currently for Hillary with 15 to be decided. Texas remains to be seen. So far tonight, Hillary has gained 23 delegates with many still to be decided.

One last thing, for the first time in this campaign, we seem to have had a real Bradley Effect in its classic sense. Obama substantially underperformed the exit polling in all the states so far, including Vermont. The exit poll called Ohio and Rhode Island close. Obama was trounced by double digits in both states. Texas remains to be seen. Obama was trounced by Clinton with whites, women, the working class and Latinos. the questions remain about Obama's ability to win big contested states if he can not perform in these demographics. The Obama fans will play ostrich about these issues, but the issues are there.

< Obama's Speech to Supporters | Texas Caucus Results Start Coming In >

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Texas and the Delegate Race | 85 comments (85 topical)

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I think it goes on (5.00 / 2) (#2)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:02:02 PM EST

Looks like my vote will matter--marginally.

Why? (5.00 / 2) (#3)
by LarryInNYC on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:02:31 PM EST

You a super delegate?

[ Parent ]

Pennsylvania voter (5.00 / 3) (#5)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:03:15 PM EST

[ Parent ]

Hello (5.00 / 3) (#12)
by chrisvee on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:07:17 PM EST

I'm also in PA. I finally feel relevant and desired. :-)

[ Parent ]

: I'm finding both of you (5.00 / 4) (#17)
by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:10:32 PM EST

quite sexy tonight.

[ Parent ]

Now he tells us. (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:03:45 PM EST

if these margins hold (5.00 / 2) (#11)
by Turkana on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:07:12 PM EST

she's going to get a big delegate bump, and the momentum of the last few days is going be turbocharged. obama's pledged delegate win is no longer a sure thing, if they get revotes in fl and mi.

She's walked a longer gauntlet than anyone (5.00 / 1) (#59)
by Ellie on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:24:55 PM EST

... and survived.

The entire media has been stacked against her for years and she beat them. The swiftboaters waiting for her are going to look like leaky dinghies being chewed up in the wake of a luxury schooner.

And how pissy do the boneheads look now, who are still muttering at her to bow out? (Yet McCain's "a fighter" for staying in.)

[ Parent ]

: A fighter (none / 0) (#81)
by blogtopus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:30:37 PM EST

I think that that is something nobody can deny about Hillary. How can she take it and STILL want to put herself into a position to take more of it for 4 -8 years?

[ Parent ]

Delegate Count (none / 0) (#47)
by solon on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:21:07 PM EST

Senator Clinton may do better than expected in Ohio and Rhode Island and Senator Obama may not have done well in Vermont, but it is very probable that he will win the delegates from the primary and caucus in Texas even if he loses the popular vote.

According to the Official Texas Count for the primary, Senator Obama has a two delegate lead from the primary, which is a result from how the delegates were assigned based on previous turnout.

It is unclear when the caucus results will be announced. Maybe tomorrow, maybe at the end of the week.

[ Parent ]

: I stnad corrected. (none / 0) (#58)
by solon on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:24:32 PM EST

The delegate count from the primary is now 63 - 63.

[ Parent ]
: Hillary wins the delegate night almost for sure (none / 0) (#69)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:27:10 PM EST

[ Parent ]

always against NAFTA... (5.00 / 1) (#14)
by DandyTIger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:07:38 PM EST

is what Bob Woodward just said about Hillary and is what he said in his book. That was to stomp down on an Obama commentator when he started in on NAFTA. Sweet.

oops (5.00 / 1) (#15)
by DandyTIger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:09:15 PM EST

I meant Burnstein... as in Carl. Why do I get those two mixed up.

[ Parent ]

: Think of Robert Redford (5.00 / 1) (#34)
by Cream City on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:18:18 PM EST

and Dustin Hoffman in the movie. Trust me, when you visualize Redford, and you see Bernstein, you'll never confuse them again.

[ Parent ]

Russert (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by magster on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:10:41 PM EST

just read Obama's accidentally disclosed memo from three weeks ago, noting how accurate its projections have been.

Interesting.

CNN... (5.00 / 1) (#19)
by mindfulmission on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:11:33 PM EST

"...if current margin in Harris County continues to hold, that will be more than enough to make up the ground that Obama is behind."

And that doesn't include the rest of the pro-Obama areas that still are not in.

I think there is a misunderstandng (5.00 / 1) (#25)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:15:34 PM EST

If Harris County is 15% of the vote, a big if, then it is 400,000 votes. It is not all A-A. Latinos are thre to.

If Obama wins the remaining 200,000 60-40, that is a 40,000 vote margin. Clinton has that at least in El Paso yet to be counted.

I think this is not looking good for Obama.

[ Parent ]

Its not just... (none / 0) (#36)
by mindfulmission on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:18:37 PM EST

... Harris County.

Fort Worth and surrounding areas, Austin and surrounding areas, and one other (I dont remember) are also at very low reporting rates now, and all are about 60-40 Obama.

[ Parent ]

Ft Worth is a Clinton area (none / 0) (#45)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:20:13 PM EST

: My husband says it is BO territory, lots of (none / 0) (#64)
by Angel on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:25:45 PM EST

spillover from Dallas. Those who don't vote for BO go republican.

[ Parent ]
: Not at the moment. . . (none / 0) (#71)
by LarryInNYC on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:27:30 PM EST

With 147,000 votes counted, Obama leads by ten points.

[ Parent ]

I'm not talking out the calculator ... (none / 0) (#43)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:20:01 PM EST

but some quick math in my head, looked like that.

It looks pretty hard for Obama to pull ahead.

[ Parent ]

: his big leads (none / 0) (#60)
by bigbay on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:25:02 PM EST

are from early voting. He's getting hammered on votes cast today, which means there won't big margins out there for him anywhere. It looks like a 52-48 win when it's over.

[ Parent ]

If the CNN tv numbers correct and 65% has been (none / 0) (#48)
by Angel on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:21:16 PM EST

counted, then there are still over 1 million votes to count. I don't have a clue where those votes are from. BTD, do you know?

[ Parent ]

the latino population far outnumbers the (none / 0) (#82)
by hellothere on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:30:54 PM EST

african american population in harris county by the way. harris county has gone republican in the last presidential elections. houston itself has gone democratic but the burbs are republican.

[ Parent ]

But (none / 0) (#32)
by Steve M on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:17:59 PM EST

it also doesn't include the pro-Clinton areas that are not in.

It's clear Obama still has a shot at Texas but I'd rather be Clinton right now, with the 50,000 vote lead.

[ Parent ]

I've watched countless primaries ... (none / 0) (#50)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:22:23 PM EST

and elections and I can count one hand the number of times I've seen a lead flip twice.

[ Parent ]

: Knock wood!! (none / 0) (#70)
by Robot Porter on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:27:15 PM EST

Kaynahorah!

[ Parent ]

CNN's.... (none / 0) (#41)
by Oje on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:19:49 PM EST

John King totally misrepresented the vote and primary tally process. In Harris County, it was not 14% of the votes, but 14% of the precincts finalized. The early votes have been tallied, though the precincts are still outstanding. King totally misrepresented the potential for Obama to gain votes there, especially if 50% of the county did vote early (half the vote has been counted, not 14%).

The funny thing is, when he went back to Harris County after that poorly worded segment, it was suddenly at ~37% of precincts reporting, but Obama still down by ~60K in the totals--for no difference.

[ Parent ]

And one last thing.... (none / 0) (#49)
by Oje on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:22:01 PM EST

Obama lost the vote TODAY, people who made up their minds in the past 3 days broke for Clinton. His margins in each of those counties will decline as today's vote is tallied.

[ Parent ]

: Yeah...John King (none / 0) (#62)
by lilburro on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:25:14 PM EST

did not sound so confident when explaining what was going on in Texas. And of course since no one will ever call him out on it, why should he care.
Thanks.

[ Parent ]

Woman on Charlie Rose says black radio (5.00 / 1) (#21)
by jawbone on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:11:56 PM EST

callers are calling for Hillary to get out of the race, just time to let Obama have the nomination.

Saying young blacks very angry--say they will stay home if she's the nominee.

Oh, my.

Woman mentioned the attack on Tavis Smiley for criticizing Obama for not attending the BSOTU in NOLA.

Halperin talking about the boos if Hillary's name is mentioned at Obama rallies and even at more staid events. He was telling Sherrod Brown's wife she was deluded to think there wasn't lots of anger at Hillary and Bill about this primary. (And the MCM (mainstream corporate media) had nothing to do with stirring up racist feelings, right?)

Women are saying the same thing aboutObama (5.00 / 1) (#26)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:16:04 PM EST

"Some" women. (none / 0) (#31)
by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:17:53 PM EST

My point is (none / 0) (#35)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:18:36 PM EST

this is a dangerous game for Obama and his supporters.

[ Parent ]

Why are they even (none / 0) (#42)
by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:20:00 PM EST

bringing race back into this?!

[ Parent ]

Now who's going for Pyrrhic victory? (none / 0) (#57)
by blogtopus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:24:09 PM EST

What use is a candidate if people aren't interested in voting for a 'black candidate' only?

[ Parent ]

: I should mention (none / 0) (#75)
by blogtopus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:28:20 PM EST

the same thing goes for a 'woman candidate' only. There's more to them than race or gender.

[ Parent ]

hmm (none / 0) (#44)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:20:11 PM EST

Obama supporters need to stop playing chicken with the election. ;-)

[ Parent ]

Not this woman (none / 0) (#51)
by A little night musing on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:22:42 PM EST

Really, why the calls on either side for the other to drop out? It's still close, no matter what happens tonight.

Let's see what happens in the other primaries.

[ Parent ]

: Yeah. It's not necessary. (none / 0) (#78)
by lilburro on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:29:47 PM EST

I agree with those who say it will be good for the party esp in the states where they will be campaigning. What does anyone want from someone dropping out now except the satisfaction of watching someone lose ?

[ Parent ]

In the '60s they called this (none / 0) (#24)
by Jim J on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:14:33 PM EST

"mau-mauing."

It's extortion, and only the weak fall for it.

[ Parent ]

: I wasn't going to use that term-- (none / 0) (#30)
by jawbone on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:17:26 PM EST

Anyway, it's the heat of competition right now--let's hope....

[ Parent ]

Sad if true (none / 0) (#27)
by blogtopus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:16:09 PM EST

After all that Bill and Hillary did for Civil Rights in their lifetimes.

[ Parent ]

many didn't show (none / 0) (#67)
by bigbay on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:26:24 PM EST

young blacks didn't show up for Obama today, judging by the exit polls.

[ Parent ]

Now I'm going to go turn on some MSNBC (5.00 / 1) (#28)
by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:16:14 PM EST

: Heads exploding like dkos? (5.00 / 1) (#39)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:19:29 PM EST

[ Parent ]

Fox news showing a caucus (5.00 / 1) (#74)
by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:28:13 PM EST

and it looks like an episode of COPS.

: BTD, alternate explanation to Bradley Effect. (none / 0) (#83)
by FoxholeAtheist on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:31:00 PM EST

I don't think Barack is experiencing a typical Bradley Effect.
It's possible that voters are telling pollsters they're voting for Obama, not out of liberal guilt, but out of embarrassment about admitting that they actually prefer the disfavored candidate - Hillary.
Some call it the "embarassed voter effect".
I like to call it the Inverse Hillary Effect, meaning Hillary has many supporters who deny their support for her; they wait till they're in the privacy of the voting booth and, there, they support her in the way that counts most .

[ Parent ]

I got Rhode Island. . . (none / 0) (#1)
by LarryInNYC on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:01:32 PM EST

and Vermont right.

Still doing better than Zogby, I think.

I missed Texas, maybe (none / 0) (#9)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:06:34 PM EST

Have to see.

[ Parent ]

How did you call it? (none / 0) (#13)
by vigkat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:07:18 PM EST

: Obama by 2 (none / 0) (#23)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:12:55 PM EST

[ Parent ]

JMM (none / 0) (#4)
by rilkefan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:03:04 PM EST

expecting the delegate math to "sink in" over the next few days.

JMM is a fool (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:06:09 PM EST

Well (none / 0) (#22)
by rilkefan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:12:37 PM EST

I thought too well of him before this campaign to go that far. I suspect he's a bit biased and much more importantly suffering from the lack of Clinton supporters among his, what, milieu? (Ok, that does reflect poorly on him if true.) If one reads random liberal blogs one gets a distorted picture. And the math is in fact difficult for HRC.

He does seem to be pooh-poohing the Clinton claim that the press is biased against her, and that is harder to explain away.

[ Parent ]

Josh (none / 0) (#40)
by Steve M on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:19:32 PM EST

seems to be unable to escape the groupthink that pervades the blogosphere. Just when I think he'll be sharp enough to reject the latest meme that the Hillary-haters have propagated, he gets sucked right in.

There are some bloggers, like Atrios, who have the ability to look at what all the other bloggers are outraged about and say "you know, this really isn't such a big deal." Josh just doesn't seem to be one of them.

[ Parent ]

: I think Josh's success has gone to his head. (none / 0) (#52)
by Angel on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:22:55 PM EST

[ Parent ]
: Atrios is tryng to be scrupulously agnostic (none / 0) (#76)
by jawbone on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:29:05 PM EST

about the primary.

[ Parent ]

The spin is itself head-spinning (5.00 / 4) (#16)
by Jim J on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:09:43 PM EST

Tweety and KO still want her to drop out "for the good of the party."

Still!

As for Josh and his "analysis," I don't know what to say. He's fallen further, faster than even KO, which is quite a freefall.

What is it about Obama that makes people jettison all contact with reality? And why do only certain people fall for it, while others are totally immune?

[ Parent ]

Good (none / 0) (#29)
by Edgar08 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:17:04 PM EST

Question.

[ Parent ]

: Street smarts (none / 0) (#46)
by vigkat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:20:15 PM EST

and a fair amount of gravitas.

[ Parent ]

Still? (none / 0) (#33)
by vigkat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:18:16 PM EST

Always.

[ Parent ]

Blinded by that light which comes down (none / 0) (#37)
by jawbone on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:18:47 PM EST

from above or through the window? And makes the have to vote for Barack Obama?

The scariest thing I've heard a politician say, btw.

[ Parent ]

I'm not sure where Bowers (none / 0) (#7)
by magster on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:06:03 PM EST

pulls his projections from, but he only has Clinton gaining 4 delegates, not including the caucuses.

When are we getting some caucus results?

John Edwards (none / 0) (#10)
by DandyTIger on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:06:38 PM EST

if he's ever going to do it, should put his hat in the ring for Hillary. that would add his 20 some delegates. And that would add to the new momentum. Wouldn't that be nice. John, are you listening. Come on, being VP wouldn't be so bad.

Edwards is waiting to see what (none / 0) (#38)
by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:19:16 PM EST

Richardson does (besides urge HRC to bail it, that is).

[ Parent ]

: I have no idea (none / 0) (#65)
by vigkat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:25:54 PM EST

What he thinks he's doing, but I'm on the verge of being disappointed in him.

[ Parent ]

Must it be Bradley Effect? (none / 0) (#20)
by catfish on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:11:44 PM EST

What about being too embarrassed to admit to voting Hillary? Peer pressure, etc.

Would like to think some color barriers have been broken this primary.

: SInce there was a movement toward change (none / 0) (#55)
by jawbone on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:23:49 PM EST

favoring Hillary in the last few days, could that not be the reasons for some polls not matching the outcome?
BTW, during the MCM's pushing the Bradley Effect for NH, one of the polling blogs pointed out there was no Bradley Effect, that the polls were accurate for the regular voting, but did not account for a high number of absentee ballots.

[ Parent ]

She is killing (none / 0) (#53)
by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:23:02 PM EST

hin in El Paso as well.

whoa (none / 0) (#54)
by Turkana on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:23:24 PM EST

check out cuyahoga county- only 52-48, for obama?

: Obama got smoked in Ohio (5.00 / 1) (#61)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:25:04 PM EST

Chuck Todd is living in a dreamworld.

[ Parent ]
: Did the polls in the county stay open (none / 0) (#66)
by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:26:21 PM EST

later due to court order?

[ Parent ]

Fox seems (none / 0) (#56)
by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:23:58 PM EST

almost ready to call Texas.

Does anyone think we'll know Texas results (none / 0) (#63)
by Teresa on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:25:42 PM EST

tonight? Even approximately? If so, I may need a hangover remedy.

Dip Larry's hat in tomato juice. (5.00 / 1) (#68)
by oculus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:27:05 PM EST

I think it may be called tonight (5.00 / 1) (#72)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:28:08 PM EST

Steve Clemons at Washington Note has a post (none / 0) (#80)
by Angel on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:30:26 PM EST

up saying he got a call from a big-wig who says to watch the TV because it will go for Hillary tonight.

[ Parent ]

: I think it will (none / 0) (#84)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:31:24 PM EST

[ Parent ]

Sleep if you need to (5.00 / 1) (#73)
by andgarden on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:28:11 PM EST

It will be 50/50 +/- 3 ;-)

[ Parent ]

Exhausted (none / 0) (#79)
by chrisvee on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:30:11 PM EST

I got up at 4:00a this morning...but I can't sleep until I know the TX results (at least the primary results).

[ Parent ]

On CNN (none / 0) (#77)
by BarnBabe on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:29:33 PM EST

David Gerkin or however you spell it, was saying that if Obama gets the popular vote and the Super Delegates vote for Hillary and she wins, it will be horrible as the people will be unhappy. BS to that. If it was only Democrats who voted, I might agree, but since there were so many open primaries, I don't believe this would be the case.

I just want (none / 0) (#85)
by americanincanada on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:31:28 PM EST

to know the primary results. And I ant to know what is up with the cops at the Texas caucuses.

Anyone knows?