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Where Kos And I Agree . . . And Disagree

By Big Tent Democrat

Speaking for me only

Kos responds:

[I]f the supers overturn the popular will by siding with Clinton, they will spur civil war ("up in arms", as Armando says) -- not because they broke a rule in pulling off their coup, but because they will have subverted the will of the party electorate.

Here Markos and I agree. If Obama is the pledged delegate leader and the popular vote leader (as me, Kos and a cast of a thousand bloggers, NBC, etc, expect), then any action by the super delegates to subvert such a result would be outrageous and wrong, imo of course. But as Kos acknowledges, NOT against the rules. It won't happen. More . . .

Where Kos and I disagree - he writes:

The rules state that Michigan and Florida don't count.

The rules DO NOT state that. The rules ACTUALLY expressly state that Michigan and Florida would suffer a 50% loss of elected delegate as a penalty for moving up their contests. The DNC violated its own rules in imposing the draconian punishment of stripping Florida and Michigan of their delegates. But let's not go all Walter Sobcek on this.

The REAL point is that revotes were planned for Michigan and Florida - revotes that were completely within the rules and more importantly, completely in the interest of the Democratic Party (but NOT in the interest of Barack Obama's chance to win the nomination, though certainly in his interest in winning the general election.)

Barack Obama blocked the proposed revotes in Florida and Michigan. To my way of thinking, this means Obama needs to have a margin in the popular vote that exceeds 500k, the amount of margin one could reasonably argue Clinton may have gotten from revotes in Florida and Michigan. He should be able to do that. And of course he will hold his selected delegate lead.

One last point, except for what I am writing with regards to the rules, everything I present here is merely opinion, not facts. Until the voters decide, this is all just bloviating from pundits like me, Markos, Josh Marshall and whomever you choose.

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  • Display: Sort:
    you have opinions (5.00 / 3) (#1)
    by Turkana on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 12:56:46 PM EST
    the "a list" bloggers have the revealed truth. don't you understand the difference?

    I thought BTD was A list blogger (5.00 / 3) (#3)
    by Molly Bloom on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 12:58:39 PM EST

    "Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
    [ Parent ]

    Must be. Wasn't he on an HRC (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:02:12 PM EST
    campaign conf. call recently?

    [ Parent ]
    No (none / 0) (#7)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:01:24 PM EST
    not fort a long time.

    [ Parent ]
    well your name starts with an A (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by diplomatic on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:04:39 PM EST
    you must be.

    [ Parent ]
    jeralyn's been on tv more, lately (5.00 / 8) (#13)
    by Turkana on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:05:10 PM EST
    thank markos. i sense a coup...

    [ Parent ]
    and she will be on a lot more (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by diplomatic on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:14:12 PM EST
    because she kicks major bleep

    [ Parent ]
    Are you sure it isn't because she always (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by Militarytracy on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:20:15 PM EST
    has great expensive updated hair due to her identity crisis?

    [ Parent ]
    She's make a great guest host (none / 0) (#40)
    by Chimster on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:24:31 PM EST
    for MSNBC's  Countdown.

    [ Parent ]
    almost enough to make me watch that show (5.00 / 2) (#62)
    by diplomatic on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:36:19 PM EST
    Now if she could just take over for Keith...

    But seriously, she should have her own show like Greta Van Susteren.  BTD can come on and be on her legal panel and TalkLeft will take over the world.... the world!! MAUAHAH MAUAHHAHA DROOL....

    [ Parent ]

    Respectfully, I disagree. (none / 0) (#177)
    by Molly Bloom on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 09:33:46 AM EST

    "Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
    [ Parent ]

    On another blog (5.00 / 10) (#2)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 12:58:23 PM EST
    Markos mentions in his post, the following paragraph appears (I'm not linking to it because I object to the title, as does Markos, and it's become typical of that blog. He has the link though)

    There are going to be some women that think Clinton was treated unfairly in this process because of her gender, but very few of them will be able to harbor the kind of lingering resentment toward the Obama campaign that would preclude them from supporting him in the fall.

    No facts, no stats to back that up. Also, it's exactly the kind of post filled with personal attacks you won't find here.

    it's a bizarre argument: (5.00 / 8) (#10)
    by Turkana on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:03:20 PM EST
    we must not upset the obama supporters, because if we do, they won't participate, in november. clinton's supporters, on the other hand, will do the right thing, so we can afford to upset them.

    [ Parent ]
    Bizarre, But Not Uncommon (5.00 / 14) (#27)
    by BDB on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:17:29 PM EST
    It's implicit in Obama's statement that he'll get Hillary's voters, but she might not get his.  And it's designed, IMO, to play on Super Delegate fears.  From a recent article on South Dakota:

    Some Democrats feel like they're in a jam, Simmons said. If Clinton wins, the black vote might not turn out for her in the general election. If Obama wins, political ads featuring Wright will blanket the airwaves and Internet.

    It seems to me that the worry over the black vote is, at least in part, driven by the Obama campaign's attempts to smear the Clintons as personally racist (the fairytale, MLK crap).  Sure, there were some unfortunate comments by Clinton surrogates, but it's Obama's repeated playing of the race card that is the real culprit here, IMO.  And I think Obama's statements about Hillary not getting his voters are designed to play onto those fears and essentially try to convince the SDs they have no choice but to vote for him.  Now, ordinarily, you might think the guy threatening to split the party wouldn't be rewarded, but I'm not so sure about that.

    It's remarkable to me that a campaign that has so often leveraged Reps/Indys against democrats, used rightwing framing on healthcare, has worked to portray the last successful democratic president as a racist, and has essentially threatened to take his voters and go home if he doesn't get his way, is considered the party of Unity, while Hillary - who has repeatedly said the party would unite behind the nominee and run a partisan, democratic campaign - is alleged to be secretly plotting a McCain victory.

    Only in the democratic party.

    [ Parent ]

    That Was A Heck Of An Article (5.00 / 1) (#82)
    by flashman on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:58:07 PM EST
    Thanks for passing it along.

    [ Parent ]
    Excellent points and precisely the reason (5.00 / 1) (#91)
    by hairspray on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:07:34 PM EST
    I am changing my registrtion to independent and have serious doubts about voting for Obama. An important point to consider is the Latino vote.  IN the past they have not benn consistent voters much to the dismay of the Democrats in TX.  If Hillary gets trashed they too will stay home, mark my words.

    [ Parent ]
    As a slight digression from the points made... (none / 0) (#156)
    by tandem5 on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 04:24:37 PM EST
    I know that I shouldn't be looking for logic where there is none, but the implicit and explicit statements made on the part of the Obama Campaign and its supporters that, "he'll get Hillary's voters, but she might not get his" further indicates that Hillary Clinton's supporters are the base of the party - A fact not disputed by most exit polls for the various primary elections.

    But, at the same time, another message permeates the political landscape which I would assume also originates from the Obama camp that, unlike Obama's supporters, Clinton's, in general, do not hold positions consistent with progressive tenets. So I guess my (faux) confusion centers around where the progressive movement sits in relation to the base.

    I've heard a variety of arguments that essentially gerrymander the progressive movement out into the regions of the independents (usually those regions that are more inclined to vote for Obama, oddly enough), however I've always been under the impression that the term "progressive" was a euphemism for being liberal (eek!) and so if we can all agree the base on the Republican side represents solid right-wing positions I think its safe to assume that our base is fairly lib... uh progressive.

    [ Parent ]

    Reward Bad Behavior (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by flashman on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:17:33 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    Nevertheless. . . (5.00 / 3) (#33)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:21:22 PM EST
    it has been one of Obama's arguments.  And not really that bizarre if you buy the "growing the party" argument -- that Obama attracts people who aren't necessarily doctrinaire Democrats and who might not vote for the Democrat in the fall.

    I don't buy that argument -- at least, not barring open warfare around the convention (which might well induce some otherwise reliable Democratic voters to sit it out this year).  But if you do, then it makes perfect sense to say we can afford to rough Clinton up but have to treat Obama with kid gloves.

    I don't buy the argument because I don't believe the polling is there to support it, but also because it's tainted by being so obviously self-serving in nature.

    [ Parent ]

    What I (none / 0) (#72)
    by Claw on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:44:07 PM EST
    And many of my colleagues (I live in Atlanta BTW) are worried about is that the anger from AA's will run so deep if the press allows the idea that the nomination (Hillary's) wasn't completely above board--no smoke filled rooms, etc.--that AA's won't just stay home for this election, they'll stay home rather than vote for ANY white democrat.  I DO NOT think this would be smart behavior...but it does worry me.

    [ Parent ]
    I understand that (5.00 / 4) (#84)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:01:38 PM EST
    But the notion that AAs will erupt in anger if the nomination isn't decided the way they prefer, while women will dutifully let it roll off their backs and show up in November to vote for the party's nominee, seems to play into stereotypes of both groups.

    And it's a dangerous game, in any event, to decide that we must appease certain groups who might otherwise walk out, while paying no attention to the opinion of other groups who we've decided can be safely taken for granted.  The short-term logic of this approach is apparent, but in the long run all you do is end up rewarding bad behavior.  We don't want the Democratic nomination to be decided, year in and year out, according to which candidate's supporters can make the most powerful argument that they won't vote Democratic unless they have their way.

    [ Parent ]

    Well (5.00 / 1) (#96)
    by Claw on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:10:05 PM EST
    This is kind of a weird year.  We have two great candidates.  Both of whom I'd be proud to vote for.  The point I'm trying to make is that AA's may be so angry that they won't vote for any white democrat, Atlanta will end up with a republican mayor, etc.  I don't discount the possible anger of white women voters...I do think it very unlikely that they will refuse to vote for any democrat unless said dem is a white woman.  
    Also, slightly O/T to our conversation, but if HRC is within 100 delegates and leads in the popular vote, I will have no problem with her as the nominee...nor do I think many AA's will.

    [ Parent ]
    so, what you're suggesting is that (none / 0) (#157)
    by cpinva on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 04:28:46 PM EST
    the AA community is so blinded by race, it would, as a group, knowingly and willfully vote in violation of its own self-interests? sorry, i just don't buy into that stereotyped analysis. sure, some would, no doubt. some wouldn't vote at all. the majority i suspect would still vote for what works best for them.

    let me further break it down: atlanta is not the entire state of GA. the entire state of GA will vote republican in the fall, regardless of who the democratic candidate is. if the AA community of atlanta wants to vent its collective spleen, by letting a republican become mayor, that's really their problem, not mine or sen. clinton's.

    in fact, i could frankly care less, the mayor of atlanta has absolutely no effect whatever on me, or anyone else outside the city limits of................atlanta.

    [ Parent ]

    Thank you (none / 0) (#162)
    by Claw on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 05:17:58 PM EST
    For your breaking "it down," and for your use of a gigantic ellipsis.  I, myself, enjoy ellipses.  Let me break this down for YOU: I was using Atlanta as an example because it is where I was born and raised and currently practice.  How 'bout I break it down further for you:  After I posted my example, in the halls of the Georgia State Capitol, I heard a man I know to be a democrat and an elected official say "If she doesn't care about us ** her," to a relatively large group of young men.  [They went on to discuss sen. Clinton by name, so I'm assuming that's who he was referring to] He was not.......from Atlanta.  
    Let me break it down even further: People vote against their interests.  Always have, probably always will.  That's why poor whites are a huge voting bloc for the repubs.  
    I understand that GA will most likely go red in GE but that doesn't mean we can't continue to elect people like Rep. Lewis...unless the AA community feels like they've been lied to.  Then we can't.
    Republicans have been running a years-long whisper campaign that basically goes "dems are just taking your vote for granted.  They don't really care about you."  If it seems this nomination was stolen, we will have lost a huge voting bloc that we count on across the U.S.  I was using ATL as an example. Thanks for missing the point.      


    [ Parent ]
    Then we have no one to blame but Obama (5.00 / 3) (#98)
    by goldberry on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:11:16 PM EST
    He didn't have to drive a wedge between Hillary and the AA community.  What could he do for them that Hillary wouldn't have done?  If anyone has to make amends in the fall, it has to be Obama.  He either has to patch things up with the "typical white person" Democratic base or he has to glue the AAs and Hillary back together.  
    And I hate to point this out but AA's make up only about 15% of the total population and are heavily represented in Republican states like Mississippi, South Carolina and Louisiana.  Even if they all turned out for Obama, it is unlikely that they would be capable of winning the south for him.  

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah! How dare that uppity young buck... (2.00 / 1) (#108)
    by tbetz on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:25:21 PM EST
    ... run against the experienced Hillary Clinton!  It was her turn to be President, not his!

    [ Parent ]
    That's a big problem in this primary. (5.00 / 1) (#113)
    by Joelarama on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:30:58 PM EST
    Resorting to claims of racism when one is unable to answer the argument.

    [ Parent ]
    Ahem (5.00 / 2) (#115)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:32:59 PM EST
    racist language doesn't become any more acceptable when you're purporting to put the words in someone else's mouth.

    [ Parent ]
    The only way Obama could have avoided... (none / 0) (#120)
    by tbetz on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:38:41 PM EST
    ... driving a wedge between the AA community and Hillary Clinton would have been for him not to run a successful, engaging campaign.

    Pretending otherwise -- and pretending that what I wrote wasn't the real meaning behind the post I replied to -- seems to me rather obtuse.

    [ Parent ]

    Ahem (5.00 / 1) (#121)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:40:22 PM EST
    It is not for you to decide that other posters must be racist just because you can't divine any other intent for their comment.

    I believe Jeralyn had a post less than 24 hours ago in which she warned commentors not to resort to accusations of racism.  And now here you are.

    [ Parent ]

    It was not an accusation of racism. (none / 0) (#129)
    by tbetz on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:54:42 PM EST
    It was an accusation of "status-ism".  It was an accusation of "turn-ism".  As in, "It's Hillary's turn, and I'm gonna smear anyone who gets between her and the Presidency into a wet spot on the pavement."

    Unfortunately, in this case, because of Obama's perceived race, there was no way Hillary's campaign could smear Obama without alienating the AA community.  Even the assertion that he has driven that wedge drives the wedge deeper.

    Which comes back to the fact that, because of his engaging manner and obvious charisma, the only way Barack Obama could have avoided driving a wedge between Hillary Clinton and the AA community would have been not to run.

    [ Parent ]

    not so (5.00 / 2) (#135)
    by mexboy on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 03:09:52 PM EST
    The way Obama drove a wedge between Hillary Clinton and the AA community was by tainting President Bill Clinton as a racist.

     It started with the comment by the Obama campaign that President Clinton was saying Ba black man running for president was a fairy tale, and it went from there.

    [ Parent ]

    You may believe that if you like... (none / 0) (#144)
    by tbetz on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 03:32:00 PM EST
    ... but because of the "all's fair in politics" nature of the Clinton campaign -- witness Hillary's harping on Jeremiah Wright just today -- it was inevitable that the color of Barack Obama's skin would result in some slip-up in somebody's language driving a wedge between the AA community and Hillary Clinton.

    You may cite that as when it happened, and you may be right -- but I say it was inevitable, and Bill Clinton's sloppy choice of words in South Carolina just happened to be the first instance.

    [ Parent ]

    I'm not even going to comment on this. (none / 0) (#169)
    by mexboy on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 06:36:31 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    well, no (none / 0) (#158)
    by cpinva on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 04:39:47 PM EST
    sen. obama could have run his campaign on its merits: his accomplishments, his experience, his brilliant plans for the country's future. he could have. unfortunately, he doesn't seem to have much of the above, so that didn't really leave him much left to run on, hence the ludicrous charges of "racism" against the clinton campaign.

    methinks the gentleman doth protest too much.

    charisma and platitudes will only get you so far, at some point the people demand substance. that's the huge difference between sen. clinton and sen. obama: i'll grant you, she isn't the most charismatic speaker, and she doesn't shake a room up when she enters, but she's got a rock solid record of substantive accomplishments.

    myself, i'll take solid & substantive for $100 alex!

    [ Parent ]

    goldberry (5.00 / 3) (#136)
    by tek on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 03:12:05 PM EST
    didn't say he shouldn't have run against her, he said Obama shouldn't have driven a wedge between Hillary (and Bill) and the AAs.  He absolutely has done that and it's not good for the Party overall.

    [ Parent ]
    Who is Buck? (5.00 / 1) (#174)
    by Mike Pridmore on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 07:21:47 PM EST
    Is he a third party candidate?

    [ Parent ]
    Another Point (none / 0) (#93)
    by The Maven on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:09:24 PM EST
    that's largely been left unspoken:  

    The common wisdom is that Obama is bringing in all these new voters as well as pulling over a decent chunk of indies and disaffected Republicans.  Let's posit that all this is true.  What I don't see is how this necessarily benefits Democrats in any other race, for Congress, state or local offices.  Some share of the new voters would simply show up at the voting booth, cast their ballot for Obama, and leave pretty much everything else blank.  The crossover Republicans may very well split their tickets and vote GOP for downticket races -- after all, if he will work for unity and be willing to work with everyone, what's the imperative to strengthen the Democratic majority in Congress?

    I'm not suggesting that Obama actually would be a net negative in this regard (and hopefully this wouldn't turn out to be the case), but it's a question that I think is worthy of examination.

    [ Parent ]

    Maybe Not (none / 0) (#103)
    by squeaky on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:20:03 PM EST
    A recent msnbs/wsj poll said that 76% of the voters "want a candidate who has different policies than Bush".  Considering the GOP is lockstep, the only alternative is to vote Dem down the line.

    think progress

    [ Parent ]

    Erm . . . The Question Asked (none / 0) (#143)
    by The Maven on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 03:24:43 PM EST
    in that poll was, "Do you think that the next president should take an approach similar to that of George W. Bush, or should the next president take a different approach than George W. Bush has?" (Hart/McInturff for NBC/WSJ, March 7-10, 2008, Question 7 at p. 13)

    I'm not sure how the 76% who said that the next president should take a different approach necessarily translates into a straight-line Democratic vote all the way down the ballot.  Maybe it will, maybe it won't.  All I'm saying is that no one has really addressed this yet, and there's no data one way or the other.

    [ Parent ]

    I Must Be Biased (none / 0) (#175)
    by squeaky on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 09:55:59 PM EST
    Because it is hard for me to imagine anyone wanting another BushCo ticket. Also, my guess is that the people who would vote for a Dem president would not then hamstring them by voting Republican down the line.

    But yes, it is hard to know from the poll if people are going to vote down the line.

    [ Parent ]

    ladies are expected to "play nice" (5.00 / 4) (#117)
    by nemo52 on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:33:37 PM EST
    However, I know a lot of "old bags" as we have been designated by Obama's young fanatics, who are furious, are contemplating not voting or planning not to, and I know several who are already severing from the democratic party.  It works both ways, and yes, older women have been taken fro granted and insulted thoroughly in this campaign.

    [ Parent ]
    Good Thing (5.00 / 1) (#132)
    by squeaky on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 03:08:01 PM EST
    That for most older people wisdom increases with age. Those sages will vote for whoever is the Democratic nominee irrespective of their skin color or initial favored candidate.

    [ Parent ]
    in other words... (5.00 / 2) (#11)
    by diplomatic on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:04:02 PM EST
    Markos is telling his readers that Obama will be "likeable enough" for women voters after it's all said and done.

    Jeralyn, you are right to point out that he is not quoting any surveys to back up his assertion, because if he did... the numbers tell a diferent story...

    For example, as wasabi posted earlier, this is one source (Ras) that shows that Obama would have a harder time getting Clinton supporters:


    "The division in the Democratic Party is highlighted by the fact that just 71% of Democratic Primary voters now say they will vote for Hillary Clinton in the general election campaign. If Barack Obama is nominated, 64% of Democratic Primary voters are ready to vote for him. The way in which the Democratic Nomination is resolved will ultimately determine whether the nominee will enjoy stronger support from the party's base."


    [ Parent ]
    No, it wasn't Markos who said that (none / 0) (#15)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:05:28 PM EST
    it was a blog he linked to in his post.

    [ Parent ]
    Yes, but that kind of stuff (5.00 / 4) (#29)
    by zyx on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:18:03 PM EST
    just is making me crazy, and I think there will be "long-range resentment".

    I went to our state capitol yesterday.  It's got a mall with cherry trees and they are in full bloom and it is an exquisite sight.  Our capitol, in two previous incarnations, burned to the ground or something, and was rebuilt in the thirties, and it's a rather nifty big ol' marble Art Deco pile.  It has a huge shiny bright gold pioneer man on top of its Art Deco dome.  (The public spaces in this state tend to have a LOT of pioneer statuary.)  I contemplated this huge shiny guy with oversized sparkling musculature and trying to hatch a plot to anonymously reduce him to shiny gold dust, and then rather tactfully suggest to the legislature that maybe a pioneer woman would be a splendid idea for a replacement.

    You never heard it from me, though, right?  ;-)

    [ Parent ]

    allright (none / 0) (#21)
    by diplomatic on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:13:11 PM EST
    Are you referring to the part in the blockquote?

    I don't go to Daily Kos anymore, excuse me if was a bit mistaken.

    [ Parent ]

    That is so offensive (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by zyx on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:08:13 PM EST
    I looked it up.  You are right about the title--almost lost my breakfast.

    [ Parent ]
    Markos Has Been Wrong About A Lot Of (5.00 / 3) (#20)
    by MO Blue on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:10:30 PM EST
    things lately. This just adds to the list.

    [ Parent ]
    The real problem is likely not (5.00 / 2) (#24)
    by frankly0 on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:15:14 PM EST
    so much women voters, per se, but the action of Reagan/Bush Democrats.

    Now I don't offhand have statistics to back it up, but I've got to believe that the number of working class Democrats who might fall under the "Reagan Democrat" rubric is larger than, say, the number of African-American voters.

    But even assuming they are roughly same in number, the Reagan-Democrats present an even greater problem, by far, come the general election because:

    1. They are concentrated in the major swing states (OH, PA, MI, and FL).
    2. They traditionally swing their voters from Democrat to Republican, instead of merely sitting the election out (the likely outcome if A-As refuse to vote for Hillary). This means their likely voting behavior has twice the force.

    While I appreciate that getting the AA segment upset by giving the nod to Hillary would have bad consequences, they are likely only going to be far, far worse if Obama is selected instead.

    [ Parent ]
    Another point (5.00 / 6) (#34)
    by frankly0 on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:21:33 PM EST
    Looked briefly at the Booman link.

    What he doesn't get, and many Obama supporters don't seem to grasp, is that, if Obama wins the nomination, Reagan Democrats aren't going to vote for McCain over Obama simply out of anger that their candidate wasn't selected, they are going to vote for McCain because they prefer him as a potential President.

    That is traditionally exactly what they have done, when they voted for Reagan over Carter or Mondale, or for Bush over Gore or Kerry. It wasn't out of bitterness -- it was because they are close enough to the center that a Republican candidate can win them over.

    [ Parent ]

    Also Hispanics (5.00 / 3) (#51)
    by BDB on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:30:03 PM EST
    Obama has polled very weak among hispanics.  John McCain just did a swing through Southern California, meeting with a number of hispanic groups.  The Republican operative (grain, salt) on NPR said that Republicans viewed California as more in play if Obama is the nominee than Clinton, in part, because of hispanics (also because Clinton has stronger, deeper ties to the state).  Personally, I expect the Dem to carry the state whoever it is, but I thought it was interesting, especially since this was a local NPR segment and so wasn't aimed at influencing primary votes.

    [ Parent ]
    McCain will benefit from this in Florida the most (5.00 / 1) (#99)
    by diplomatic on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:12:43 PM EST
    His support among Hispanics is especially strong among Cuban Americans.  He has been very outspoken against Castro throughout his political career and many can argue that it was this dynamic that made the difference for him in winning the Florida primary.

    And it isn't just Cuban Americans.  I personally know many Puerto Ricans who are perfectly fine with McCain.  (especially among military vets, including in my own family)

    Overall Hispanics will remember that he was the only major Republican candidate who agreed to the original Univision debate and the only one who dared to speak out in defense of immigrants being "God's children" knowing he'd likely be booed for it.

    I picture a general election campaign between McCain and Obama and I don't even see how it could be close.  The media darling status of Obama will be nullified by the fact that McCain is also a media darling.  Take away that advantage and Obama is outmatched, outexperienced, and out-propagandized (no right wing machine) at every level.

    [ Parent ]

    Yeah (none / 0) (#105)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:21:34 PM EST
    There was a very interesting diary on mydd a few days ago that talked about the Latino vote for November.  The diarist did his best to explain, several different ways, why McCain might get a large chunk of the Latino vote on the merits if Obama were the nominee.

    The pro-Obama commentors just didn't get it.  It seemed clear as day to them that voting Democratic would be in the best interests of Latinos, and so of course it would happen, no matter how many times the diarist tried to explain that Latinos simply don't have any kind of long-standing institutional connection to the Democratic Party.  Now personally, I happen to think that voting Democratic is in the best interests of just about everyone, but I'm smart enough to know the reason I think that is because I'm a Democrat!  In the real world, when my opinion of someone's best interest is at odds with their own opinion, their opinion tends to win out.

    Apparently AA voters ("the most loyal Democratic voting bloc," we're told again and again) are unique in that their resentment is genuine and lasting and that they really will stay home if the nomination isn't decided to their liking.   But everyone who isn't AA will apparently be just fine with voting for whoever the nominee is!  It's a strange world these folks portray.

    [ Parent ]

    What I don't get (none / 0) (#153)
    by DaleA on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 04:01:52 PM EST
    is the A list bloggers keep pointing to the west as the place for Dem growth. Latinos are concentrated in the Western states. Hillary does very well with a large demographic in the projected areas for growth. Obama does not do well with that demo. So, logically, it would make sense for Dems to choose the candidate who starts off with a large base in the targeted region. What am I missing?

    Per the Census Bureau, link is not working, there is a handy map showing the nation with information on each state. In every Western state there are more Latinos than AA's. Sometimes by a 5 or 7 to one margin. Isn't Hillary the logical candidate for party growth in the targeted region?

    [ Parent ]

    Heh (5.00 / 11) (#32)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:21:14 PM EST
    It's been my experience that no one, including women, likes to be taken for granted.

    That's exactly what Obama did with his infamous "I'll get all of her voters, but will she get all of mine" comment, and it's exactly what Markos is doing in that quote.  The instinctive reaction to being taken for granted is to respond, "Oh yeah?  I'll show YOU!" which isn't the sort of reaction you want to provoke when your goal is party unity.

    Is there a single person among the prominent Obama supporters in the blogosphere (Markos, of course, sits at the head of the food chain) who understands the big picture, the need for unity in November?  If Obama were really as much of a sure thing as these folks tell us, what would the point be of continuing the negativity?

    If anything, the negative attacks on Hillary's character have only accelerated, with no thought given to whether her supporters might be permanently alienated by the sort of bullying that led to the DKos writer's strike.  Maybe these folks have internalized the "her voters can be taken for granted" talking point to such a degree that they actually believe no work is required to line those votes up for November.

    [ Parent ]

    Always dissing the women (5.00 / 3) (#50)
    by kmblue on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:29:16 PM EST
    I continue to be absolutely astonished by the Obama campaign's casual assumption that they'll have the women's vote.

    And the the fact that the same casual assumption is firmly held by Kos and the MSM.

    [ Parent ]

    The Insinuations That Those Who Are Not (5.00 / 6) (#60)
    by MO Blue on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:35:04 PM EST
    voting for Obama or racists or uneducated is not going to bring about unity in the party either.

    Maybe these folks have internalized the "her voters can be insulted as often as possible" talking point to such a degree that they actually believe no work is required to line those votes up for November.

    [ Parent ]

    The DNC (5.00 / 1) (#137)
    by tek on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 03:15:17 PM EST
     is also taking all of us for granted.  I keep reading where these Dem leaders are pushing Obama and then they say all the Dems will vote for him because we have to.  Some nonsense like that.  They seem to think they're in an unassailable position this year, so they're not using good political sense.

    [ Parent ]
    I love my country too much (none / 0) (#66)
    by nellre on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:39:58 PM EST
    I love my country too much to sit it out.
    I will harbor resentments about the tacky way HRC has been treated, but it'll be resentments against the people responsible for it, not Obama himself.


    [ Parent ]
    Unfortunately (none / 0) (#83)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:00:32 PM EST
    Obama IS responsible for it.  It's his campaign, his staff, his people.  Honestly, I'd have more respect for him if he joined in rather than pretending to be so pure and above the dirt.

    However, I do think the vast majority of women Dems in particular simply will not stay home and let McCain win, no matter waht some of them are telling pollsters now.  Nor do I believe most AA voters would if Clinton ends up the nominee.

    Both of these groups are far too smart as voters and as citizens to sulk and let another right-wing Republican get into the White House.

    If I'm at all a typical older white woman Dem., we will march our butts down to the polls and cast the most difficult vote of our lifetimes for a Democrat if Obama wins the nom-- and then we will bave to go get very drunk.

    [ Parent ]

    I of the opinion that (none / 0) (#109)
    by nellre on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:25:49 PM EST
    Obama doesn't have a visceral hatred of HRC that the Obama followers who are trashing her do.
    Pure emotional knee jerking is the only way I can account for the self destructive nature of the HRC discourse on sites like huffpo and dailykos

    [ Parent ]
    And I'll be right there with you (none / 0) (#152)
    by allimom99 on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 04:00:17 PM EST


    [ Parent ]
    An Antidote (5.00 / 4) (#45)
    by BDB on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:27:21 PM EST
    To that post can be found in this thoughtful piece by Melissa McEwan on legitimate concerns feminists have about supporting candidates who embrace sexism.  In it she decries the tendency for progressives to complain that calling out fellow progressives for sexism prevents unity:

    This oft-wielded cudgel to silence feminists who cry foul at sexism expressed by political allies is wrong for the following reason, which I cannot state any more succinctly than this: When someone engages in divisive behavior, any resulting division is their responsibility.

    BTW, polls have repeatedly shown that more Dems stay home if Hillary is on the ticket, than if Obama is (see, e.g., here).  So the idea that if Obama is the nominee, Hillary's base will stick with the party appears to be more claim than actual fact.


    [ Parent ]

    Your link says more Repubs (none / 0) (#87)
    by Joan in VA on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:03:42 PM EST
    stay home-not Dems- and more Dems stay aboard with Hillary.

    [ Parent ]
    LOLOLOLOLOL!!! *Wiping eyes, catching breath* (5.00 / 3) (#89)
    by goldberry on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:06:19 PM EST
    Well, maybe the young and fertile women will vote for Obama, but us stupid old bitches don't have to worry about abortion so much.  And anyway, we've got well paying careers.  We don't need Obama.  Yeah, four years of McCain would suck and I'd be donating a lot of money to charity.  But if I were Obama, I'd be really worried.  He not only has to win Republican voters, he has to go out of his way to suck up to us and win us back.  And he's going to have to get down on his knees to do it.  

    [ Parent ]
    If only there was a way to prove... (5.00 / 1) (#146)
    by Exeter on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 03:37:13 PM EST
    ...this meme wrong... something fact-based... hmmm... how about polling people?!? Yes! Anyway you slice -- nationwide or in battleground states -- HRC is the better general election candidate against McCain.

    [ Parent ]
    During that back and forth about (5.00 / 1) (#4)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 12:59:26 PM EST
    the rules re the penalty for moving the primary forward, I thought the default rule was penalizing a state 50% of the delegates selected in the out-of-order primary, but that there was other provision giving the DNC discretion not to do so.  

    On a ftr note (5.00 / 9) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:00:42 PM EST
    Kos writes:

    Nowhere have I said that this would violate the rules. You too, Jerome. All I have said is that it would be a coup by super delegate -- the overturning of the popular results by the party elite.

    Well alleging a coup is exactly an accusation of breaking the rules but let's leave that aside, as I did in my post. I wrote:

    Kos uses the pejorative term "coup" to describe the Super Delegates not voting for the pledged delegate leader. Let's leave aside the issue of whether the word "coup" makes sense here - and let's focus on whether the rules allow this. The answer is obviously yes, they do. It seems to me that it is Obama supporters like Markos who are complaining that the rules MAY NOT favor Obama. It is they who are whining that the rules permit Super Delegates to pick a nominee who is not the pledged delegate leader. I do not like the rules either. But for a different reason. They allow Super Delegates to pick a nominee who might not be the popular vote leader.

    Some Kossacks who have been the targets of my criticisms in the past are rankled by my points of view. Others do not like it when some of their heroes are called onto the carpet.

    What you will not see from them is anyone showing something deliberately false in my posts. You will also not see an actual substantive response to my points.

    I have no sacred cows, friends or foes. I write what I think.

    I agree (5.00 / 3) (#46)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:27:22 PM EST
    People who use words like "coup" need to be more honest in acknowledging the connotation.  Another thing people need to be more honest about is that the meme "millions of voters will see the nomination as illegitimate if it's decided in a certain way" is to some degree self-propagating.  People will be upset by a certain scenario because they've been told, over and over again, that said scenario is unacceptable.

    I don't like the dynamic this sort of talk has created, where the threat to stay home if things don't go your way is routinely deployed.  People are essentially trying to blackmail the superdelegates, and the Party.

    [ Parent ]

    Markos has a good grasp. . . (5.00 / 7) (#67)
    by LarryInNYC on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:40:50 PM EST
    on using words to annoy -- witness his attacks on "women's studies types" and "New York money liberals" in the past.   Part of his popularity has always derived from his Limbaugh-like outrageousness.  But it's not so attractive when targeted within the party.

    Using words that mean things and then claiming they don't mean those things is a kind of slippery passive-aggressive discourse that makes actual dialog extremely difficult.

    [ Parent ]

    Yes (5.00 / 3) (#97)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:11:06 PM EST
    This campaign has really been an eye-opener with respect to some blogosphere tactics that don't really seem so bad until you're on the wrong side of the argument.  (Of course, you and I went through something similar already with the whole "Bloomberg Democrats" flap, but this is obviously several degrees beyond that.)

    I used to enjoy so many diarists at DKos when their righteous indignation or righteous snark was aimed at the Bush outrage of the day, but not so much now that my own candidate is the target and I can see that their diaries are, if I may say so, not entirely factual.  Having a tremendous gift for the written word may get you on the Rec List, but it doesn't make you any more likely to be correct on the merits.  A lot of the diaries at RedStates are exceedingly well-written polemics, after all.

    [ Parent ]

    Nuclear option (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by PaulDem on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:37:48 PM EST
    I also disagree with the terminology of a "coup" because of the implication that such vote of the superdelegates would be structurally illegitimate.

    A better term would be "nuclear option".  While overturning the outcome of the pledged delegate race is "legal" based on party rules, the likelihood is that it would obliterate the coalitions that form the backbone of the party.  It's use, therefore, is an extremely grave step that should be carefully considered.

    As an aside, I don't see the popular vote totals as a valid marker of the winner because the disparity between voting turnout in caucus versus primary states.  You could argue that if more states held primaries instead of caucuses that Clinton would have gained more votes and possibly more delegate but that is just pure speculation.  Besides if the popular vote was the determining factor we'd have President Gore taking his victory lap right now.  Sometimes life's unfair.

    In any event, were the superdelegates to veto the pledged delegate winner, there should be a more compelling rationale than "because the rules allow for it".  The effect of such a reversal on the voters who supported Obama could have lasting consequences for this election cycle and beyond.  

    In my opinion the purpose of the superdelegates holding the power to nullify the outcome pledged delegate contest is to prevent the case where nominating the pledged delegate winner would do serious harm to the Democratic party and its prospects in the general election.  

    Even in light of the Wright dustup I don't think nominating Obama rises to this level potential harm to the party.  I have not heard any other compelling arguments from Clinton supporters for why the superdelegates should take the extraordinary step of putting their thumb on her side of the scale in this contest.  I'm willing to listen to logic since I'm a fairly soft Obama supporter but nobody put forward anything convincing yet.

    [ Parent ]

    Popular Vote (5.00 / 6) (#71)
    by BDB on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:43:23 PM EST
    The allocation of pledged delegates is at least as unfair and arbitrary as the popular vote.  And more irrelevant in terms of holding party coalitions together.  Do I think all those hispanics who turned out in Nevada are going to be mollified that their "votes" (yes, I know it was a caucus), which helped put Hillary over the top in terms of popular "vote", don't matter because Obama won the pledged delegate count?  Or that blacks in Alabama will be satisfied because their overwhelming support for Obama led to a tied delegate count?

    I believe it's voters, not delegates, who make up coalitions and it's voters, not delegates, that Democrats need to attract in November.  So why on earth should I care more about delegates?

    [ Parent ]

    Agreed (none / 0) (#80)
    by PaulDem on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:55:35 PM EST
    The way we apportion delegates is whacked and should be changed but I didn't hear anybody clamoring for these changes until it turned out that the specific changes they now see as crucial to this particular contest just happen to benefit their candidate.

    It's the same thing as the newly minted consternation about the poor disenfranchised voters in Michigan and Florida.  Where were these wails of anguish last year when the party voted to impose these consequences?

    [ Parent ]

    Delegate apportionment (5.00 / 2) (#90)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:06:20 PM EST
    and caucuses simply weren't much of a problem before because we've never had such a neck-and-neck primary contest before.  The fault lines of the caucuses and the delegates are glaringly apparent only now because they're not giving us any help in figuring this out.  If we had the exact same system except it was winner-take-all for each state, I honestly doubt you'd be hearing much more than a bit of grumbling.

    [ Parent ]
    Implies We Knew (5.00 / 3) (#94)
    by BDB on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:09:47 PM EST
    I didn't know how delegates were apportioned and I didn't have much understanding of the difference between a caucus and a primary.  So my lack of earlier complaint was because of a lack of understanding, not because I agreed.  Now that I do know, I believe we need a complete overhaul of the system before 2012 - primaries (preferably closed) and popular vote % by state for delegate breakdown.  You win 60% of the vote in, say, California, you get 60% of the pledged delegates.

    As for MI and FL, at the time, there was repeated assurances that they would be seated somehow, that it would all be worked out.  I had no problem with punishing the state party bureacracy by keeping out candidates and their dollars, but I did not believe I was signing on to actually disenfranchising almost 2 million voters.  That is unacceptable to me.  I was fine with a re-vote (which would've been permissible under the rules), but since Obama scuttled those, we're stuck with the original votes.  That's not my choice or my doing.

    [ Parent ]

    its the process of electing a nominee (none / 0) (#125)
    by thereyougo on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:48:04 PM EST
    that should be looked at and essentially we're speaking to that now.

    Its the strategies that both sides took to get where we are now. Hillary for all the purported negativity remains strong.

    The SDs have to stop looking at the candidates per se'. I think both candidates will win against the Republican. Its about the war and the economy.
    And we know what we'd get with McCain.

    But more I hear about Obama he is not ready for prime time, just on those 2 issues. After all I have seen of him he's a better orator;capitalized on what they used to call  MLK -- a protected black back in the day. Meaning his typical experiences in the black community aren't the same,to garner the almost complete support. Its like GWB said, I don't know what its like to be poor. I don't hold it against Obama, but the total support he gets from the black community comes fairly close to how females see Hillary -- gender vs. race. Two competing valid reasons historically in their significance to elect either.
    So as I see it, Both Hillary and Obama would prevail given the current dynamics.

    [ Parent ]

    "coup" is a nice little word (5.00 / 2) (#102)
    by Josey on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:19:06 PM EST
    to further incite Obama followers that have been led to believe Hillary will "steal the nomination"!!  because she's EVIL!
    They seem to have the perception that there's this big Clinton Machine and Obama is just a little guy that started with nothing in Feb. 07.

    The same little guy that the media has promoted and concealed negative info about him until the primaries were almost over.

    [ Parent ]

    We need to recapture the term "coup" (5.00 / 1) (#148)
    by Exeter on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 03:43:00 PM EST
    It would be a coup for Obama to win the nomination without winning the popular vote. It would be the first time in the modern political era that it has ever happened-- in either party. It is he, not Clinton, that would be subverting the will of the people in that scenario.

    [ Parent ]
    When calculating lead (5.00 / 4) (#6)
    by nellre on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:00:51 PM EST
    When calculating lead in the popular vote a margin of error ought to be taken into account.
    I've heard our voting process has a margin of error of about 3%.

    If 30 million vote, that's 900,000 votes plus or minus.

    If the difference in the popular vote between Obama and HRC is less than this, it's a statistical tie.

    I so much wish someone more articulate than I would write about this.

    I'd love to see Clinton surrogates (5.00 / 1) (#59)
    by JoeA on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:34:51 PM EST
    starting to push this line.  It would be absolutely hilarious.

    [ Parent ]
    You did just fine (5.00 / 2) (#92)
    by gyrfalcon on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:07:46 PM EST
    articulating it.  And I agree with you.


    [ Parent ]
    I tire of this subject, but (5.00 / 1) (#8)
    by fladem on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:02:02 PM EST
    1.  There are no rules about super-delegates. They vote for whom they want, period.
    2. The DNC did not violate their rules.  The DNC had the authority to change its rules when it voted to punish Florida and Michigan.  It did so in accordance with its own rules.

    While people are free to make principled arguments about what the decisions above SHOULD be, there is NO disptute as to the fact of either statement above.  

    No it did not (5.00 / 2) (#14)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 01:05:12 PM EST
    It had the discretion to hold an investigation and consider the Florida Dem Party's  argument that it had no choice and tried to do what it could on the date.

    The DNC did NOT follow its OWN rules. It violated its own rules. I tire of having to repeat this fact every time someone like you, who we all respect, ignores that fact.

    [ Parent ]

    You have it backwards (5.00 / 2) (#104)
    by thefncrow on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:21:29 PM EST
    The DNC rules allow for additional sanctions, above and beyond the automatic 50% delegate loss, period, without any requirement for an investigation.

    What is also in the rules is a section that allows for the DNC to hold an investigation and clear the state party of wrongdoing because the change was mandated by a state law and the party members provably did all in their power to change the state law.

    The investigation is required before the DNC clears the state party.  The investigation is not required for additional sanctions to be levied.  And if you watch Democratic Minority Leader Steve Geller's introduction of an amendment to undo the primary move, it's quite clear what the position of the state party was.

    Add that up with the fact that there was no good faith effort to run a contest that abided by the DNC rules until just recently, and the positions of the state party are quite clear.  The rules don't require an investigation, but even if one was to be run, it could be concluded in short order: despite a scant number of official protestations, the Florida and Michigan State Democratic Parties wanted those earlier primary dates, even if they were in contravention of the DNC rules.

    The DNC followed it's own rules, as did 48 other states, and several US protectorates.  The only violators here are Michigan and Florida.

    [ Parent ]

    Uh (none / 0) (#106)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:23:27 PM EST
    New Hampshire followed the rules in what sense?

    It's a matter of record that the only reason Michigan moved up was because New Hampshire announced its intention to break the rules!

    [ Parent ]

    Pre-Authorization (5.00 / 1) (#114)
    by thefncrow on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:32:10 PM EST
    Before New Hampshire moved up, it asked for, and was granted, a waiver to do so by the DNC.

    Because it has a waiver, it is not in violation of DNC rules.

    If you'd like to argue about why they were granted a waiver, that's fine, but New Hampshire did not violate the DNC rules.

    [ Parent ]

    Yes (none / 0) (#123)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:43:12 PM EST
    "waiver" means "permission to break the rules with no penalty."

    A schedule was set.  NH didn't stick to it.  MI didn't stick to it, because they were upset by NH's decision not to stick to it.  The DNC decided to hit MI with a draconian penalty and give NH a waiver.

    Arguing that NH "followed the rules" is pure sophistry.  People who follow the rules don't need to be excused from following the rules.

    [ Parent ]

    With vs Without Permission (5.00 / 1) (#126)
    by thefncrow on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 02:48:49 PM EST
    New Hampshire moved it's date up with the permission of the DNC, and so was not penalized.

    Michigan moved it's date up without permission of the DNC, and was thus penalized.

    It's really that simple.  If you'd like to argue why one got permission and one didn't, we can do that, but the waiver explains exactly why one was penalized and one was not.

    [ Parent ]

    According to the rules (5.00 / 1) (#155)
    by fladem on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 04:24:12 PM EST
    DNC Rules and Bylaws Section 20.c.5 and 20.c.6 allows the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee to "impose sanctions that the committee deems appropriate" to enforce its rules.  Thus, it was not bound by the provision in 20.c.1 that a delegation be punished by losing 50% of its delegates.

    The judgement of the Committee was that removing all of the delegates was required in order to avoid utter chaos in the primary schedule.

    As I read the rules, the DNC Rules and Bylaws followed its own process, and the decision it made was within its power.  

    One can argue the wisdom of the decision, but I am a pretty good lawyer, and as I read what they did it was in accordance with their rules.  

    [ Parent ]

    Okay (none / 0) (#160)
    by Steve M on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 05:01:16 PM EST
    but if the policeman chooses to look the other way when you commit a crime, that doesn't mean a crime wasn't committed.

    You can't premise an argument that NH followed the rules on the claim that the DNC decided not to penalize NH for breaking the rules.

    [ Parent ]

    Huh? (5.00 / 1) (#165)
    by thefncrow on Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 06:14:00 PM EST
    fladem's comment was in response to BTD's claim that the DNC broke the rules by taking 100%, instead of 50%, of Michigan and Florida's delegates.  In that, he is absolutely, positively, 100% correct.

    Your response is a non-sequitur about New Hampshire that I already went over with you:

    New Hampshire applied to the DNC for a waiver in advance of moving up their date.  The DNC granted such a waiver.  With a waiver in hand, New Hampshire was allowed to move up their primary without violating the DNC rules.

    Michigan and Florida did not have this waiver.  If you'd like to argue they should have gotten one of these, that's a fine topic for discussion.  But, without the waiver, they are in violation of the DNC rules, and stand to be punished as the Rules Committee sees fit.

    It's not that New Hampshire broke the rules and then was allowed to slide.  New Hampshire came to the DNC and asked for permission in advance.  Once they received that permission, they moved up, and the fact of them moving up their date was not a violation of the DNC rules because the DNC cleared that move in advance.  

    If you're wanting an analogy, we'll go with this.  Florida and Michigan wanted a look at Person X's records.  Florida and Michigan kicked in the front door, and retrieved the records.  Having willfully violated the rules, Florida and Michigan were sentenced to prison.

    New Hampshire also wanted a look at those records.  They went before a judge and filed an order with the court asking for access to the records.  The judge reviewed the request and approved it.  With a court order in han