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Mississippi

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 11:54:52 PM EST
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By Big Tent Democrat

My old friend and intellectual adversary Al Giordano at The Field echoes my prediction about Missisippi.

Al predicts a 17-16 delegate split in favor of Obama. Al also includes great analysis of each congressional district and pretty maps. Check it out. He does a terrific job.

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    Mississippi | 78 comments (78 topical)

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    LA Times reporter (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:26:37 AM EST
    from Yahoo City:

    YAHOO CITY

    Looks like the idea the Clinton campaign sent the e mail to Drudge with the Obama in native dress photo stuck, at least in Mississippi.  

    Great story (none / 0) (#21)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:32:48 AM EST
    Good to hear from some sane Democrats for a change.

    Parent
    I'm pretty sure they aren't reading (none / 0) (#25)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:34:09 AM EST
    the blogs.

    Parent
    Thank the lord (none / 0) (#29)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:36:28 AM EST


    Parent
    I just love the fact (none / 0) (#77)
    by Daryl24 on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 02:32:08 PM EST
    that every Obama supporter they talked to said the we're still voting for Hillary if she got the nomination

    No hard feelings. See you in November. Thanks for the link oculus. Rated.

    Parent

    it's yazoo city (none / 0) (#24)
    by english teacher on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:33:54 AM EST
    and yazoo county and the yazoo river.  not that there aren't yahoo's, but it's my state, so i feel obliged to at least correct your geography error.

    Parent
    Oops. Thanks. (none / 0) (#27)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:34:58 AM EST
    Take about subliminal branding.

    Parent
    No small wonder it stuck. (none / 0) (#54)
    by lilburro on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:19:53 AM EST
    I literally just heard Obama accuse the Clinton camp of 'sending out a picture of me travelling overseas' to 'make people afraid of' something as part of the 'kitchen sink strategy.'  It was on the Today Show.  He must have said it yesterday in Mississippi.  

    Thoughts?  Why is he saying this?  I thought there was agreement at the debates that he didn't hold her responsible.  

    Pretty DIVISIVE wouldn't you say?  This isn't a surrogate.  This is Obama.

    Parent

    did the Today show (none / 0) (#56)
    by OldCoastie on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:46:21 AM EST
    say anything about the pic being on Drudge first and coming from Free Republic? or did they just let it stand?

    Parent
    They let it stand. nt (none / 0) (#74)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 10:52:00 AM EST


    Parent
    I was watching that with my husband... (none / 0) (#75)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 10:54:06 AM EST
    ..who is an Obama supporter and with whom I have had heated conversations over the past couple of weeks. Even he had to acknowledge that Obama made a false accusation. And truly, that is all I ask of Obama supporters, admit that the lies come from both sides. Don't pin it all on Hillary.

    Parent
    the commenters on al's post (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by english teacher on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:43:26 AM EST
    were really not very smart.  their only conception was that whites would vote for clinton out of racism.  whites in the 2nd, and farmers across the state will vote for clinton because of bill's farm policy.  even repentant bush voters who are farmers and republicans will vote for clinton because of bill's ag policies.  in the 2nd, district, this fact alone will explain white support for clinton, not racism.  

    also, mike espy was very popular with white farmers in the 2nd district.  espy was more popular with whites than thompson could ever dream of (and i like thompson) simply because of ag policy.  

    this won't cut into obama's margin among african americans, but don't be surprised if white turnout is higher than expected.  i know these people, and they are not stupid when it comes to farm policy.  bush has given them a serious case of buyer's remorse.  

    A-A percentage wil be slightly higher (none / 0) (#37)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:45:57 AM EST
    in MS than AL but white vote and the small Latino vote, about 4%, will go stronger for Hillary.

    I feel comfortable with my 58-42 prediction

    Parent

    Obama won A-As in AL (none / 0) (#38)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:46:38 AM EST
    84-15 btw.

    Parent
    Here's an idea: Mississippi (5.00 / 1) (#42)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:50:59 AM EST
    primary live blog by BTD, andgarden, and English Teacher, while the rest of us try to fathom what you all are talking about.  

    Parent
    will be interesting to see (none / 0) (#45)
    by english teacher on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:54:07 AM EST
    whether she cracks his support in the 2nd.  had she campaigned there (neither did) she might have had a chance.  most african americans i know are not news junkies or heavy cable watchers.  they do/did like bill very much.  too bad neither bothered to campaign in the second.  i think a trip to greenville or clarksdale (home of espy) could have really helped hillary, especially if she had focused on education.  

    that said, i doubt it and stand by your prediction :>

    Parent

    Hope (none / 0) (#48)
    by eleanora on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 01:10:26 AM EST
    this is on-topic enough, but I'm hearing nostalgia for Clinton's farm policies in Montana as well, and from traditionally Republican men. A rancher I've known for years actually congratulated me after OH/TX, said some nice things about Hillary and hoped that she'd balance the budget again if elected. Probably won't translate into many crossover votes, but it's interesting.

    Parent
    Today's Obama Story lInes (4.00 / 1) (#32)
    by oh puhleeze on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:41:05 AM EST
    Just need to say something about today's Obama push: that Hillary committed an unpardonable sin saying Obama was not ready to be CiC; and that she was gaming to suggest he could be Veep given his unreadiness.
      In particular, I saw Kerry mugging on his high horse on all the MSM shows, calling Hillary disloyal to the party and  way over the top.  Thought I'd note the things Kerry said about Edwards in the 2004 primary prior to choosing him as Veep.

    KERRY ATTACKS EDWARDS ON EXPERIENCE
    Kerry Attacked Edwards' Maturity And Experience; `When I Came Back From Vietnam...I Don't Know If John Edwards Was Out Of Diapers Then.' "`In the Senate four years - and that is the full extent of public life - no international experience, no military experience, you can imagine what the advertising is going to be next year,' Mr. Kerry said. With a grin, he added: `When I came back from Vietnam in 1969 I don't know if John Edwards was out of diapers then. Well, I'm sure he was out of diapers.'" (Adam Nagourney and Jim Rutenberg, "With Hopes Up And Elbows Out, Democrats Give Iowa Their All," The New York Times, 1/19/04)

    Kerry Attacked Edwards' Experience. "`I think the American people want an experienced hand at the helm of state,' said Kerry, who has spent 19 years in the Senate compared with Edwards' five. `This is not the time for on-the-job training in the White House on national security issues.'" (Mark Z. Barabak, "Diverse States May Reshape The Democratic Race Today," Los Angeles Times, 2/3/04)

    Kerry Blasted Edwards' `Lack Of Military And Foreign Policy Experience.' "Kerry took aim at Edwards's lack of military and foreign policy experience while responding to Edwards's comment that both candidates shared similar plans to rebuild Iraq. `Well, I think he would like it to be that way,' said Kerry, a decorated veteran, `but I think I have 35 years of experience in international security, foreign policy, and military affairs, and I think that makes an enormous difference here. I think that the world is looking for leadership that is tested and sure.'" (Raja Mishra, "Edwards And Kerry Emphasize Contrasts," The Boston Globe, 2/23/04)

    Kerry Mocked Edwards' "Ambitious" Nature After Only One Term In Elective Office. "The veteran senator also questioned the former trial lawyer's pursuit of the presidency after less than one term in elective office. `And people call me ambitious?' a Globe reporter once overheard Kerry asking an aide." (Glen Johnson, "Once a Rival, Edwards Staying Close to Kerry," The Boston Globe, 6/10/04).

    That is off topic (none / 0) (#34)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:42:10 AM EST
    but what the heck, let's make this an election Open thread.

    Parent
    Is this an approp. place for a (none / 0) (#36)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:45:46 AM EST
    Rezko/Obama link?  

    Parent
    Heh (none / 0) (#39)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:47:08 AM EST
    Well I think there is no appropriate place for it but feel free.

    Parent
    Wow (none / 0) (#76)
    by Daryl24 on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 02:22:18 PM EST
    I had forgotten about that. Kerry was a rough customer...on democrats I mean.

    Parent
    What I wonder is (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:02:40 AM EST
    how many white Democrats will vote for either Hillary or Obama. They are, by Mississippi, both very liberal. Bennie Thompson, a good representitive and Democrat only very rarely breaks 55% of the vote in his Congressional district, even though, as Al points out, it is majority AA. Even in Georgia, Black Democrats get more of the white vote.

    And his further point (none / 0) (#2)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:06:29 AM EST
    that John Edwards's absence hurts Obama is well taken. I don't think there'd be any votes for Hillary if this had come at the same time as S.C.

    Parent
    A couple of points (none / 0) (#3)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:14:02 AM EST
    Number one, MS has no party registration but historically white participation in Dem primaries is around 44%.

    Hillary will win 80% of the white imo.

    Obama will win 90% of the A-A vote.

    58-42, but because of the majority black district, Obama will lose the other 3 districts by 3-2. He will win the majority A-A district by 5-2.

    4-3 in the at large because 5-2 will require 65% statewide for Obama.

    PLEOs split 2-2 as that will require 68% for a 3-1 split.

    And yes Edwards being gone is why Hillary gets 80% of the white vote.

    Parent

    No party registration (none / 0) (#4)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:16:10 AM EST
    PRIMARY ELECTIONS

    Party candidates are nominated through primary elections. A voter may vote in either party's primary, and cast a ballot for that party's nominees to the general election. . .



    Parent
    Yup, and Mississippi (none / 0) (#7)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:22:16 AM EST
    still has a boatload of dixiecrats. That's the reason for this:

    Members of the Mississippi State House of Representatives

    House of Representatives
    Affiliation    Members
         Democratic Party    73
         Republican Party    46
         Seat Vacant**    3
     Total    122

    And the Senate:

    Affiliation    Members
         Democratic Party    28
         Republican Party    24
     Total
    52


    Parent
    third request... (none / 0) (#49)
    by english teacher on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 01:12:30 AM EST

    anxious to get big tent's take on musgrove v. wicker for lott's seat.  musgrove went out on some very sour notes, but did a lot and i mean a lot for education.  i think he has more than a fair shot at that seat but haven't seen numbers.  

    Parent

    He also went all Roy Moore on gays (none / 0) (#50)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 01:21:25 AM EST
    "Forget it, Jake. It's Chinatown." seems to apply.

    Parent
    Your take more worhtwhile than mine (none / 0) (#59)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 08:41:20 AM EST


    Parent
    The fact that you're right (none / 0) (#5)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:20:02 AM EST
    about the racial percentages keeps me up at night--even though this is Mississippi.  

    This is a state where it will be to Obama's advantage to bring up everything white southerners hate about the Clintons in order to keep them from voting in the Democratic primary. If the black vote constitutes too low of a percentage, he could lose.

    Parent

    From the fifth comment in that thread: (none / 0) (#6)
    by Shawn on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:21:50 AM EST
    Another nail in the "rural/Southern whites won't vote for Obama" coffin.

    Did they even bother to read the post?

    Al's not responsible for his commenters (none / 0) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:22:51 AM EST


    Parent
    Seriously (none / 0) (#9)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:22:53 AM EST
    I'd say it's a nail in the "Obama will win the south in November" coffin.

    Parent
    Someone made a coffin? (none / 0) (#10)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:24:16 AM EST
    I thought it was a stillbirth.

    Parent
    It was always ridiculous (none / 0) (#14)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:26:58 AM EST
    It's a big part of the reason why I cringe when people write that Obama will be a map changer.

    And it's not just the south. You watch the election returns from Johnstown and Carbon County on April 22nd.  

    Parent

    Well I wrote he will be a map changer (none / 0) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:30:33 AM EST
    out West. A bit of a surprise to us all frankly.

    I thought he could help us in tht traditional Dem states and the battlegrounds. Has not worked that way.

    Parent

    Deepak Chopra believes, (none / 0) (#19)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:32:11 AM EST
    in Obama, why don't you?  

    Parent
    I am VERY worried (none / 0) (#26)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:34:23 AM EST
    about the possibility of a "black candidate" narrative coming out of MS tomorrow.

    If Obama is our nominee, it will be very hard for him to shake that.

    Parent

    Why will tomorrow be any different (none / 0) (#30)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:37:38 AM EST
    than South Carolina.  The man is a chameleon.

    Parent
    He won by 30 points (none / 0) (#33)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:41:10 AM EST
    and only lost whites by 16 to Edwards and 10 to Clinton.

    The margins were not as big. And we could not actually know where Edwards vote would go.

    Parent

    Only in the South though... (none / 0) (#72)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 10:43:05 AM EST
    ..I think he has shaken off the "black candidate" thing pretty much everywhere else.

    Parent
    BDT (none / 0) (#11)
    by NJDem on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:24:22 AM EST
    I realize my question isn't specific to Mississippi, but it's germane to this crazy delegate-distribution system.  How is it that HRC seems to be gaining delegates in CO, and if this is true for other caucus states, can it shake up the delegate map?  LINK  
     

    I am no expert (none / 0) (#12)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:26:16 AM EST
    but this was stated at the time.

    And Clinton promised to work the whole caucus process.

    Rules are rules as you know.

    Parent

    I don't know the details (none / 0) (#60)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 08:46:13 AM EST
    But it isn't specific to caucuses.  Obama picked up 4 delegates from California last week.

    It takes time for all the delegates to be certified and selected.  The initial numbers aren't always complete or accurate.

    Parent

    This morning, Josh Marshall finally discovered (none / 0) (#63)
    by Democratic Cat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 08:51:35 AM EST
    That caucus delegates really are different from primary delegates as they are selected through a process of several rounds of voting.  And that Gary Hart lost delegates to Walter Mondale as the process went on through the various levels.

    I like much of JMM's work, but sometimes he is terribly uninformed.

    Parent

    TPM starts to realize the numbers (none / 0) (#66)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 09:08:04 AM EST
    of delegate counts are not known now?  I wonder when the A-listers might get that the pressure for a candidate to quit because of the vaunted delegate counts was puffery for which they fell like fools?

    Parent
    Now you're asking for too much. (none / 0) (#73)
    by Maria Garcia on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 10:45:16 AM EST
    Because I don't think it's a question of realizing it, I think it's more a question of self-delusion.

    Parent
    speaking of germane (none / 0) (#69)
    by Kathy on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 09:43:13 AM EST
    MELBOURNE (AFP) - Outspoken feminist Germaine Greer has rounded on US presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton, branding her as "cold," "bossy" and "manipulative" while questioning her credentials for the top job.

    I just love it when women support other women!

    Parent

    Another question: (none / 0) (#15)
    by NJDem on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:27:35 AM EST
    HRC hasn't gotten 80% of the white vote anywhere, including the South, even after JE left the race.  Why are you so sure she will in Mississippi?  I don't think BO's 'bamboozled/hoodwinked' routine today helped him in that department, however.  

    Because (none / 0) (#16)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:29:33 AM EST
    She DID get 72% in Alabama and I think that demogrpahic shift has just gotten stronger and will be strongest of all in MS.

    Parent
    A 26-yr. old guy in the (none / 0) (#17)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:29:50 AM EST
    LA Times article I linked to above sd. things were better during the Clinton years.  

    Parent
    Glad you and Al are still friends. (none / 0) (#20)
    by Ben Masel on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:32:32 AM EST
    Guess I'd misread the tenor at the end of your Hugo Chavez debate.

    Oh he was po'd at me (none / 0) (#23)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:33:17 AM EST
    But we got over it.

    Parent
    That was 4 years ago (none / 0) (#28)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:35:54 AM EST
    I've known you on line forever Masel.

    Parent
    4 years forever? (none / 0) (#53)
    by Ben Masel on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 02:35:51 AM EST
    I've been doing politics online since fall of 1984. We invented the Internet as we know it in the hallway of the Dallas courthouse, waiting for releases after the Republican National Convention. Postmorteming the weakness of using phone calls for advance, when Gregor Makowitz suggested that Delphi's $5 an hour was cheap enough that folks like us could make it work.

    Al's Big Left outside was my first blog. He lost the domain name, and Google mysteriously wiped it from their cache. But this survives...

    #28 Posted by Al Giordano
    June 16, 2003, 09:07 PM
    A Reader Confronts the Candidates

    Former Wisconsin Gubernatorial candidate, hemp crusader, and Big Left Outside reader Ben Masel files our first reader report from the presidential campaign trail.

    It seems that the WisPolitics website witnessed one of his exchanges, reporting:

    Howard Dean and veteran Madison marijuana advocate Ben Masel faced off in an impromptu hallway debate on medical marijuana Friday night.

    "It's hard to be the peace guy and blow off the potheads,'' Masel reflected Saturday.

    Masel fills in the blanks for Big Left Outside, writing:
    The Governor used the occasion to "clarify' his position. He opposed the Vermont medical marijuana bill because he does not believe "Medical decisions should be made by Legislatures." (old position.)

    He would, as President, "on the day I take office direct the FDA to take a fresh look at the existing studies, and issue a report in 60 days." He would then implement the report. (New "clarification.")

    He added that "speaking not as a Candidate, but as a physician," he would "expect the report to recomend marijuana be approved for Chemotherapy and AIDS, but not for Glaucoma, because we have new medications for Glaucoma that are even better. And no medication is completely safe."

    On to Senator Kerry. No audience this time, it's a quarter to six in the morning in the parking lot. He's waiting for his ride, I'm awakened from a short night in my car by hundreds of squawking seagulls.

    He doesn't recall my Contra/Cocaine article from '86, cited extensively in his Committee Report.

    We move to US complicity in the present day Afghan Heroin trade. He's sure it's going on, would consider making it a campaign issue, but hasn't looked at the evidence. His ride arrives.

    Kind Readers: You, too, can be a Big Left Outside reader-correspondent along the campaign trail. Send me an email, and if I don't know you already, send me references and disclose your agenda (you can have an agenda, as long as it is disclosed). But I don't want any phonies to get past the goalie. This ain't the NY Times newsroom here.

    In Masel's case, I know him. To my knowledge, he was the first gubernatorial candidate in Wisconsin history to campaign, one day, naked. Now, that's what I call full disclosure!

    Paranoid Editor's Question: Are there really seagulls in Wisconsin? I suppose it is plausible because my Andean bureau chief reports there are seagulls in La Paz, Bolivia, a country without any access to the sea... But in Wisconsin?

     

    Parent

    Ben, what is Al smoking in that (none / 0) (#31)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:38:42 AM EST
    photo?

    Parent
    Sorry, what photo? (none / 0) (#52)
    by Ben Masel on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 02:23:35 AM EST
    Last I saw Al was NM Governor Gary Johnson's drug policy summit in June 2001. He was smoking Chesterfields. Not sure, I think he passed on my proferred joint.

    Parent
    I didn't realize she got 72% (none / 0) (#22)
    by NJDem on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:33:05 AM EST
    in Alabama--I thought she capped out in the mid-60s.  Thanks :)

    didn't Clinton also (none / 0) (#70)
    by Kathy on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 09:46:14 AM EST
    win the delegates by one in AL?

    Parent
    also, public education is a big issue (none / 0) (#40)
    by english teacher on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:48:40 AM EST
    and clinton is obviously the go to candidate here.  what will obama do for public education in mississippi?  who knows.  but people reasonably expect clinton will do something if nothing more than get rid of these stupid state tests.  again, i doubt this will put a dent in african american support for obama, but it may.  public education is near and dear to the hearts of many mississippians.  we want to see the system in our state vastly improved and clinton seems the much better choice (pardon the pun) on this issue.  

    Will Clinton's statements in IA (none / 0) (#43)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:52:15 AM EST
    about Mississippi hurt her in the latter state?

    Parent
    that didn't get (none / 0) (#47)
    by english teacher on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 01:02:29 AM EST
    much play here that i am aware of.  certainly nothing in the greenville, jackson, or vicksburg media (papers, tv) that i saw.  but maybe i missed it.  

    Parent
    As I expected -- it's embarrassing (none / 0) (#67)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 09:28:19 AM EST
    but it's true, so the locals just have to ignore it.  I saw the same thing in my state, Wisconsin, over and over until we finally cracked the media control and managed to begin to embarrass locals about being one of the last states never to have elected a woman to Congress or top state offices.

    I kept talking about it and talking about it and writing about it in local media, which actually kept taking the truth out of my copy because they said it couldn't be true in a "progressive state."  Facing them down, over and over, with the evidence -- we finally shattered the myth.

    Then we broke the barrier pretty fast, although still not until the eve of this new millennium.    So it all has to start with the media admitting the embarrassing truths, and it takes a while.  

    Parent

    CD2 (none / 0) (#41)
    by DaveOinSF on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:50:50 AM EST
    If Hillary somehow holds him to less than 64.2% in CD2, and wins the rest of the CDs, it'll be a delegate tie.

    The key variable (none / 0) (#44)
    by andgarden on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:53:35 AM EST
    is white turnout.

    Parent
    Rezko trial:; (none / 0) (#46)
    by oculus on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 01:02:10 AM EST
    OBAMA RECOMMENDS APPOINTEES

    Wilhelm, who worked for Bill Clinton but now supports Obama, says nothing to see here.  But it looks like Obama had some input while he was an IL state senator as far as recommending appointees to IL state boards.  

    As an open thread.... (none / 0) (#51)
    by Oje on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 01:39:57 AM EST
    Since Mississippi is as good a place to consider as any other state when discussing affirmative action, seems like Ward Connerly wrote the Wikipedia entry for affirmative action. The three headings are Opponents, Controversy, and Implementation Worldwide.

    The Affirmative Action In the United States entry is no better. The greater part of the text notes the opposition to affirmative action, provides some ham-handed balance, and does not discuss Title VII of the Civil Rights Act.

    Wasn't Al spectacularly wrong in Texas? (none / 0) (#55)
    by ineedalife on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:31:09 AM EST
    Mississippi does seem easier though.

    this one too (none / 0) (#78)
    by dc2008 on Wed Mar 12, 2008 at 05:53:29 AM EST
    Unless all of the so-far unassigned delegates fall to Clinton's side, this prediction was spectacularly wrong too.

    Parent
    Independence (none / 0) (#57)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 08:38:21 AM EST
    Use e-mail to identify offensive comments to Jeralyn and me. Off topic comments will be deleted as yours was.

    For the record (none / 0) (#58)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 08:39:09 AM EST
    thus was an Open ELECTION thread.

    Parent
    BTD, another of those "stolen delegates" (none / 0) (#68)
    by Cream City on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 09:32:55 AM EST
    diaries revealing incredible ignorance about the caucus process, calling Clinton a "thief" and worse, was at the orange site yesterday:  "Witness Account: Hillary Poaching Pledged Delegates" by a "goodwill."

    The orange horde is, of course, horrified to find out that the "Dem for a Day" strategy isn't enough, if their local delegates from the first step of the caucuses don't come back at the next step to be Dems again for another day.  It's harrrrrrd worrrrrrrk.

    Parent

    The key for Obama (none / 0) (#61)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 08:49:50 AM EST
    won't be winning delegates in MS.  It will be gaining popular vote in MS.

    That's a good point for it would (none / 0) (#62)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 08:51:17 AM EST
    strengthen his position as a frontrunner.

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#64)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 09:00:03 AM EST
    How he wins the popular vote will also be important.

    Of course it is amusing how the pledged delegates do not matter in MS.

    Parent

    I think that as it becomes obvious that no one (none / 0) (#65)
    by Florida Resident on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 09:05:02 AM EST
    will have enough pledged delegates to win outright and super delegates become the deciding factor, winning more votes is the argument to convince the Unpledge Delegates.

    Parent
    I didn't say that BTD (none / 0) (#71)
    by flyerhawk on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 09:56:46 AM EST
    and I think you know that.

    Pledge delegates matter of course.  But Obama has about 150 delegate lead in pledged delegates.  Any uptick is a win for him.  

    His popular vote lead, while significant, is not nearly as safe as his pledged delegate lead which is unlikely to drop below 100 at this point even if FL and MI have revotes.

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    Mississippi | 78 comments (78 topical)

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