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NYT/CBS Poll: Obama by 11

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 06:43:38 PM EST
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Their latest poll:

With less than one week until Election Day, Barack Obama maintains a clear lead over John McCain in the presidential race, a new CBS News/New York Times poll suggests. The Democratic nominee now leads his Republican rival by 11 percentage points, 52 percent to 41 percent, among likely voters nationwide.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

< WaPo/ABC Tracker: Steady Obama 8 Point Lead | NYT/CBS Poll: 59% Say Palin Unqualified, Hurting John McCain >

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    NYT/CBS Poll: Obama by 11 | 9 comments (9 topical)

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    BTD, could you go delete two (none / 0) (#1)
    by Teresa on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 06:47:17 PM EST
    comments in the Clinton thread. I sited one and the other is the last one. Both toward the bottom.

    cite, I mean. Sorry to mess up your post (none / 0) (#2)
    by Teresa on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 06:48:38 PM EST
    but they are bad.

    Parent
    I deleted them, thanks (none / 0) (#7)
    by Jeralyn on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 08:24:46 PM EST
    I've been offline this week due to court and it seems some trolls have been taking advantage. I'm back and that will end.

    Parent
    I can't wait to see (none / 0) (#3)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 06:53:36 PM EST
    the impact, if any, of the Obamercial on the polls. What day will we see the full effect? Is it Sunday?

    stick a fork in it... (none / 0) (#4)
    by white n az on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 07:05:24 PM EST
    McCain apparently flush with votes in Iowa

    Tossing people out because they were young and assumed to be for Obama...too bad the one chick already voted for McCain because I got the impression he would have lost her vote.

    Princeton Election Consortium (none / 0) (#5)
    by samtaylor2 on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 07:21:08 PM EST
    The consortium has Obama getting 367 to 171 electorial college votes (if the vote was held today).

    "The right-hand sidebar features a meta-analysis directed at the question of who would win the Electoral College in an election held today. Meta-analysis provides more objectivity and precision than looking at one or a few polls, and in the case of election prediction gives a highly accurate current snapshot. In 2004, the median decided-voter calculation captured the exact final outcome.
    Calculations are based on recent available state polls, which are used to estimate the probability of a n Obama/McCain win, state by state. These are then used to calculate the probability distribution of electoral votes corresponding to all 2.3 quadrillion possible combinations. For a popular article about this calculation, read this article and the follow-up."

    Check out 538 (none / 0) (#6)
    by shadow on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 07:44:45 PM EST
    The folks at 538 (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) do a great job of combining all the state and national polls. I have a lot of confidence in their results. While the various polls have been showing Obama's national lead to be anywhere from 3% to 12%, 538 has consistently shown his lead to be around 6-7% over the last few weeks.

    They're currently showing Obama up by 6.4% and are projecting that to be 5.4% on election day, while Obama's electoral vote projects to 344. They've shown a very slight tightening in the national vote percentage during the last week, but not in the key battleground states.

    Their site weights all the individual polls based on sample size and the results from previous elections. Their methods are very transparent and are described in great detail in the FAQ.

    538 (none / 0) (#9)
    by Socraticsilence on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 10:17:43 PM EST
    Is the site that made me realize the obvious flaws in McCain's strategy-- seriously, stealing PA wouldn't be worth it if it costs McCain virtually every other swing state (which appears to be the case in VA and CO which have only grown more out of reach for McCain in the last week).

    Parent
    +1 for 538.com (none / 0) (#10)
    by white n az on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 10:34:40 PM EST
    Nate has it going on...

    Parent
    NYT/CBS Poll: Obama by 11 | 9 comments (9 topical)

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