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CNN On Exit Polls

Via dkos diarist rmjob (who is pretty solid):

Bill Schneider:
Here's an interesting fact we discovered in the exit poll. About 1 in 7, 14% of both Democrats & Republicans, told us they made their minds up, how they're going to vote today. So there could be some changes from the pre-election polls.

Here's an intriguing finding:

Most Important To Your Vote?

[Democrats]
Issues 57%

Personal Qualities 41%

Most Important To Your Vote? [Republicans] Personal Qualities 54%
Issues 43%

One strain of interpretation could make this good for Clinton and McCain. Less about "personal qualities" would be better for Clinton and Romney it seems to me. But who the heck knows?

More . . .

AP says Independents voted by 60% in Democratic primary:

Preliminary exit polls showed independents were more attracted to the Democratic contest; about 60 percent chose the Democratic primary over the Republican primary, according to partial samples in surveys for The Associated Press and the television networks.

If this is true then Obama is going to have a good night. This is the key to the projection of a 8-10 point lead for Obama.

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  • Display: Sort:
    IMO, Clinton is stronger on personal (none / 0) (#1)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:34:58 PM EST
    qualities than issues, i.e. AUMF and K-L votes.

    Nope (none / 0) (#3)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:44:57 PM EST
    Likeable is what personal qualities would mean.

    I took that to be a potential attempt by Scneider to tell us something. Create some suspense.

    I think your interpretation seems way off.

    Parent

    I'm batting .000 so far. (none / 0) (#7)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:47:16 PM EST
    At least Michigan won.

    Parent
    But the Big Ten got stomped last night (none / 0) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:48:20 PM EST
    Most... (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:52:43 PM EST
    ...right thinking Big 10 fans enjoy it very much when OSU gets their hat handed to them.  

    Parent
    I'm almost positive Michigan would (none / 0) (#24)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:08:55 PM EST
    have beat LSU.

    Parent
    I think J had a CNN poll yesterday (none / 0) (#2)
    by Maryb2004 on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:42:36 PM EST
    that said that 47% were still undecided.  So at least it dropped overnight.  I don't think it's unusual in a hard fought race for a large group to decide at the last minute.  Or, at least, for a large group to pretend to themselves that they haven't made up their minds.

    And I don't trust that we can tell from the "most important" numbers who they voted for.  My suspicion in hard fought races where large numbers are making up their minds at the end is that people think that issues were most important to them.  It justifies all the thinking and internal debating they had to do, that may very well have actually had just as much to do with personal qualities.  

    According to a couple people being (none / 0) (#4)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:46:08 PM EST
    interviewed on CNN, they didn't decide until they entered the primary voting place.  But, is it reasonable to assume people go to all the trouble of changing their registrations from Independent or Republican to vote in the Dem. primary but haven't yet decided for whom they will vote?

    Parent
    No (none / 0) (#6)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:46:55 PM EST
    They're not telling the truth.

    Aren't you shocked?

    Parent

    Not a bit. (none / 0) (#9)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:48:55 PM EST
    P.S.  I really wish you would give us your opinion on the propriety of Obama's brokering efforts in Kenya.  

    Parent
    I'm fine with it (none / 0) (#11)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:50:04 PM EST
    Even before it was confirmed he (none / 0) (#30)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:16:19 PM EST
    cleared it w/our State Dept. in advance?

    Parent
    Voters lie about being undecided. (none / 0) (#17)
    by Maryb2004 on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:52:20 PM EST
    All the time.   Mostly they are lying to themselves.


    Parent
    No doubt buuuut (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:46:16 PM EST
    Schneider chose to give us that result ANNNND he said there COULD be some surprises.

    My CNN-ologist reading of this is that Schneider could be tipping to a closer race than we would expect.

    Parent

    Or Schneider is under orders to (5.00 / 3) (#10)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:49:52 PM EST
    say something that will persuade people it is worth watching CNN tonight.

    Parent
    That sounds the MOST (5.00 / 2) (#13)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:50:38 PM EST
    plausible.

    Parent
    No! (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by Maryb2004 on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:52:44 PM EST
    Ya think?  My faith in CNN is shaken ...

    Parent
    Well he's failed with me (none / 0) (#20)
    by andgarden on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:59:13 PM EST
    I have plans and will get the results from you folks later!

    Parent
    This is a black mark (none / 0) (#21)
    by Maryb2004 on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:01:22 PM EST
    against your political wonk credentials.

    Unless of course you are going out to watch returns, as I will be doing.

    Parent

    Life calls (none / 0) (#22)
    by andgarden on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:03:47 PM EST
    I've found that being the "first to know" isn't always all it's cracked up to be, especially when the first results end up being wrong.

    Parent
    As I recall you pulled this same cop out (none / 0) (#25)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:10:57 PM EST
    on the Iowa caucuses.

    P.S. My usually reliable reporter from SE Iowa informs me the Edwards camp gained supporters during the caucus she attended, although Obama prevailed overall in her county caucus and county.  

    Parent

    Coincidental (none / 0) (#28)
    by andgarden on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:14:49 PM EST
    I'd prefer to be here, of course.

    Parent
    I'm going to a friend's house to watch (none / 0) (#31)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:17:06 PM EST
    on her HD TV.  Might be pretty boring.

    Parent
    That would be exciting (none / 0) (#14)
    by Maryb2004 on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:50:45 PM EST
    Might be likely on the Republican side.  

    I was reading this on extraordinary turnout

    Another factor in pushing turnout to a record was the voting block drawn to Republican Ron Paul.
    "The people who are attracted to him are people who might otherwise not vote," said Paul Manuel, executive director of the Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College.

    Guess Rudy isn't attracting new voters.

    Parent

    Heh (none / 0) (#16)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:51:37 PM EST
    AP is going with a McCain (none / 0) (#23)
    by Maryb2004 on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:04:37 PM EST
    headline - "NH could launch McCain" - no surprise there.  Reporting that exit polls show 60% of independents went to Dems.  

    Parent
    Just added (none / 0) (#35)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:18:58 PM EST
    that would be decisive in my view and bad news for McCain.

    Parent
    Why isn't it enough for McCain (none / 0) (#37)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:23:18 PM EST
    to get the highest number of votes in the Republican primary in NH?

    Parent
    It is (none / 0) (#41)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:35:59 PM EST
    but he is much less likely to if most Indys are voting in the Dem primary.

    Parent
    It could help her close the gap a bit (none / 0) (#48)
    by Maryb2004 on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:58:46 PM EST
    but I still think he's going to run away with it.

    btw, after I read Bowers' exit poll thread I read on through the rest of today's posts.  Did you know that, even though he thinks it is preposterous to expect an individual progressive blogger, no matter how prominent, to speak for the four million daily participants in the progressive blogosphere, he is frequently forced to answer for us.  Yes, that's right, forced!.  

    He says it is one of the more irritating parts of his job that this happens so frequently.  Well, I for one believe him.  Poor thing.  Lol!

    Parent

    oops (none / 0) (#50)
    by Maryb2004 on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:59:27 PM EST
    that was supposed to go below where you say it will help Obama.

    Parent
    That is the part of Bowers and Stoller (none / 0) (#52)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 06:05:29 PM EST
    that is insufferable.

    Do you think they do not see themselves?

    Parent

    I guess it would be too much (none / 0) (#38)
    by Maryb2004 on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:23:31 PM EST
    to hope that Ron Paul beats McCain too ... lol!

    It's gotta help Romney.  Although it might raise Huckabee's numbers too (not enough to win).  I suspect McCain is going to squeeze by though.

    Parent

    MSNBC says (none / 0) (#43)
    by Maryb2004 on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:37:44 PM EST
    (via Bowers via Singer) that  55% of voters in the Democratic primary are self-identified Democrats vs only 48% in 2004.  So a surge of Democrats and a surge of independents.

    Self-identified Dems could help Clinton.  

    Parent

    I suppose so (none / 0) (#44)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:45:40 PM EST
    I think those numbers seem good for Obama to me.

    Parent
    He is the only one willing to go out (none / 0) (#26)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:11:52 PM EST
    on a limb on Iraq.

    Parent
    So... (none / 0) (#12)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:50:05 PM EST
    ...I was just reading the RMN (Rocky Mountain News for you coastal, liberal elitists) and I was amazed at the number of candidates on the ballot in NH--for both parties.

    21 Democrats and 21 Rebups.  My favorite is "O. Savior"  

    Heh (none / 0) (#15)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 04:51:09 PM EST
    Watch your language. (none / 0) (#27)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:12:15 PM EST
    Comment on Kos said the BBC (none / 0) (#29)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:15:13 PM EST
    says Obama really big per exit polls (which our media won't release until the polls close). I really wanted this to be a contest until at least the 5th. BTD, you're starting to convince me it is over but I'm not happy about having two states get that much say so.

    BBC has no exit polls (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:18:14 PM EST
    That comment is not credible.

    Parent
    Probably using Wonkette. (none / 0) (#34)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:18:54 PM EST
    ahh...they sort of implied that the BBC (none / 0) (#36)
    by Teresa on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:21:19 PM EST
    had access to the real exit polls and were letting the news out over there.

    Parent
    Actually, I heard part of the BBC's on-the-ground (none / 0) (#53)
    by Klio on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 06:23:10 PM EST
    reporting earlier this afternoon and the vast majority of those interviewed said they voted for Hillary.  This is highly anecdotal, of course [on her part as well as mine!], but it was so HRC-weighted that it actually made me wonder if the BBC reporter had gone out of her way to feature only the interviews with Hillary voters.  The reporter really pressed them, too, about that choice:  "Oh but why aren't you voting for Obama?"

    The portion I listened to featured a number of people who admitted to making up their minds TODAY!   Unimaginable.

    Parent

    Never forget 1972: (5.00 / 1) (#33)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:18:19 PM EST
    Iowa:  Muskie
    NH:  Muskie
    Nominee:  McGovern

    Parent
    I find (none / 0) (#39)
    by taylormattd on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:30:00 PM EST
    this large turnout to be totally exciting.   BTD, did you see MissLaura is going to be interviewed on CNN?

    What time? Will she get as much (none / 0) (#40)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:34:10 PM EST
    replay time as Obama's Granny?

    Parent
    well now (none / 0) (#47)
    by taylormattd on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:56:50 PM EST
    that I look at the little blurb on the front page, it looks like she was already on: at 3:15 eastern. I can't find any video yet.

    Parent
    Well, it seems like higher turnout on both (none / 0) (#42)
    by scribe on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:37:05 PM EST
    the Democratic and Republican sides.

    Per German radio - no exit polling - at 6 PM ET (midnight their time):

    Concord:  In the second round of primaries in the US Presidential race, the turnout has been unexpectedly high.  In New Hampshire both the Democrats and Republicans are reporting large increases in participation at the polling places.  In many places by early afternoon the ballot boxes were already almost full.  Governor Lynch said he expects a record turnout.  In a few small localities the election is already decided.  There, Democratic Senator Obama was the clear favorite over his Senate colleague Clinton.  Among the Republicans Senator McCain led over the winner from Iowa, Huckabee.  These results, however, are not representative of the entire state.  Reliable large-scale results are not expected until later in the night.

    This morning, they titled the candidates named in their report as "Senator" McCain, Clinton, Obama, "former Governor" Romney and "former preacher*" Huckabee.  Guess the editors got a call....  Rudy Cue Ball, Edwards, Paul, Richardson, etc. got no mentions in their earlier coverage.  But, to be fair, that earlier primary coverage was way down in the newscast, behind (inter alia) the memorial service for a ski-jumping coach and protests over a high-tension power line through a beloved forest.  

    * "ehemaliger Praediger", for those interested in the exact words.

    Either you are pretty good at translating German (none / 0) (#45)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:51:47 PM EST
    to English or Babelfish is more comprehensible than usual.

    Parent
    He Is Fluent (none / 0) (#46)
    by squeaky on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:53:39 PM EST
    Listens to german radio regularly, as I understand.

    Parent
    I love German media (none / 0) (#51)
    by Jgarza on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 06:00:36 PM EST
    They have a female PM, yet really similar coverage of Clinton.

    Parent
    I'm pretty good at it (none / 0) (#54)
    by scribe on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 08:12:07 PM EST
     - stationed there almost three years (living on the economy), three years high school German and grew up with German-speaking family, and listen to German radio per internet almost exclusively (FWIW, their music choice is much more interesting and I can't stand NPR's corporate-donor slant anymore.) going on 5 years now (when a computer is available).  By the time I completed my tour I could pass myself off as a German, and got a DLPT score of 3* (speak, write, listen and read) taking the test cold.  I probably could have gotten a 4, but my post didn't have the facilities (personnel) to test to that level.

    As I did here, I usually provide the link to the stories I translate, in case anyone wants to check it.

    And, yes, their news covers a lot more than ours - and there are neither commercials nor missing blond woman stories.

    -
    * FWIW, the DLPT (Defense Language Proficiency Test) is scored 0 to 5, where
    3 = limited professional fluency
    4 = professional fluency
    5 = native speaker

    Parent

    I'm impressed. My two years and a (none / 0) (#55)
    by oculus on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 08:15:30 PM EST
    summer of college German gave me the ability to ask with confidence for directions to the trainstation or bathroom or order Wiener Schnitzel mit Salat.

    Parent
    Living there really helped (none / 0) (#56)
    by scribe on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 10:59:25 AM EST
    but the most important thing is making the effort.

    If you go into a store and want to buy something, you gotta make the effort to figure out how to ask for what it is you want.  Sometimes that leads to strange foods landing in your market basket, but, hey, that's life.  And, in doing so, one has to set aside ego and pride and be willing to ask "how does one say [whatever]", or make clear they don't understand, but would like to and can the other person please help.

    Other good ways of really making the effort to understand and learn:

    • go to the movies to see movies you've already seen in English, dubbed over into the foreign language.  You already know the dialogue.  Listening to how it's translated into collquial speech and how the actors' body language relates to what is said is priceless.  Same for TV - Star Trek, Sesame Street, etc. are all translated into foreign languages and shown over there.
    • get a good translation dictionary and, when you hear/see a new word, look it up.
    • watch sports (especially those you understand - for me, it was hockey)on TV with someone who will take the time to explain what the announcer is saying, if you don't get it immediately.
    • get a girlfriend/boyfriend who speaks a little English.  You'll both want to communicate, so there's a lot of incentive to learn.
    • recognize that people all over the world are pretty much the same.  They all want a warm, dry place to sleep, a peaceable neighborhood where everyone at least minds their own business (if not actively gets along)and stays on their side of the fence, to get laid, to eat (favorite foods) until full, to have their kids behave, stay out of the hands of the police, succeed in school, and have happy lives, to have their favorite sports teams win, to get paid appropriately for their work and not be ripped off in the stores, and to cuss out their politicians.  Recognizing language is a tool, a means to those goals, allows one to derive from context what the person is likely saying and go back (by asking questions as need be) to fill in the blanks in understanding.


    Parent
    Nice. (none / 0) (#57)
    by oculus on Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 07:18:36 PM EST
    When I was a tourist in Hamburg, there was a huge banner hanging from the shell of the bombed cathedral's bell tower.  The final line of the banner, which seemed to about restitution to people forced to work for German industry during WWII, included the word "peanuts."  I got everything but that so I asked a couple passing by.  Turns out "peanuts" meant just that.  We don't want an honorary pittance, we want what we are owed.    

    Parent
    I don't think so (none / 0) (#49)
    by Jgarza on Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:58:51 PM EST
    One strain of interpretation could make this good for Clinton and McCain. Less about "personal qualities" would be better for Clinton and Romney it seems to me. But who the heck knows?

    Not if your big issue is the war with Iraq.